Goals Subtracted (g-): Set piece edition

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This past summer we introduced a framework for evaluating the individual contributions of defenders, goals subtracted (g-). We concluded that–while it was a tricky problem, and not one that was obviously made easier even with tracking data–the framework had potential to help control for otherwise unmitigated interrupting g+ value. We observed players on bad defensive teams getting a lot of interrupting value largely because the ball is coming at them all the time, and g- hinted that it might be able to control for this. That article was about measuring open-play defending, and this article is about measuring set-piece defending. If you are unfamiliar with goals added (g+), I would start here with our primer.

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Replication Project: Are shots from free kicks useless or good?

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Replication Project: Are shots from free kicks useless or good?

Way back in 2011 a somewhat remarkable thing occurred in the nascent soccer analytics blogosphere. On May 20, Chris Anderson posted the provocatively titled “The Uselessness of Free Kicks in the Premier League,” which argued that since free kicks are rare and not often converted they are “not particularly effective devices for scoring in the Premier League”. A few weeks later, Anderson lent space on his own blog, Soccer by the Numbers, to Ian Graham, now the outgoing Director of Research at Liverpool but then at Decision Technology, to argue the opposite. “Why Shots From Free Kicks Are A Good Idea, Or At Least Not A Bad One” showed that while free kick shots rarely result in a goal, the correct comparison is to other shots outside of the box. In that comparison, free kick shots are about twice as valuable as open play shots from outside the box. So with an additional decade of data, have things changed since then using MLS data and who was right?

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2023 Season Preview - San Jose Earthquakes

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If you are a San Jose Earthquakes fan, your neck is still recovering from the whiplash of last season (yeah, and probably from that Atlanta United game, but these are still preseason previews, right?). 

If you are not a fan, then you are probably not very aware of all the comings and goings last year of people not named Matias Almeyda. Chofis, the top goalscorer from 2021? Gone mid-season. Francisco Calvo, the most entertaining player in MLS this side of Nouhou Tolo? Gone mid-season. Marcos Lopez, the U-22 player trying to help Peru get that last World Cup spot? Gone mid-season. At least they got a bit of money back for Calvo and Lopez.

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2023 Season Previews: Real Salt Lake, New England Revolution, Chicago Fire

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2023 Season Previews: Real Salt Lake, New England Revolution, Chicago Fire

In 2022, Real Salt Lake was picked by by nine of 10 MLS pundits to finish in the 10-12 range. These spots are reserved for teams who are unexciting and lack top end talent. 13th-15th are reserved for spectacular disasters, while the rest are for teams that really could be special (though a few still become spectacular disasters). RSL beat expectations and finished 7th.

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2023 Season Previews: Seattle Sounders, FC Dallas, Los Angeles FC

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“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times” - Brian Schmetzer, presumably.

I’m not here to be all sunshine and roses. Last year was bad. But, also, it was awesome. Being the first MLS team to win the CONCACAF Champions League has come with a purse bulging with bragging rights. It’s not a small thing. It was a remarkable accomplishment.

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