2023 NWSL Season Previews: NJ/NY Gotham FC, North Carolina Courage, San Diego Wave
/New Jersey, New York, New Coach
By J.J. Post
I started writing Gotham’s preview for ASA in 2021, so this will be my third time around manning this piece for the site. The theme of each edition has been, for better or for worse, similar: optimism.
2021 focused on the club’s rebrand and new image on the back of a promising Challenge Cup performance during a unique COVID-affected season. 2022 discussed how Gotham could build off their first playoff appearance in nearly a decade.
2023’s preview will be optimistic because… well, things can’t really get much worse. 2022 was a nightmare season for Gotham on the pitch. 2022’s xGA overperformance crashed down to earth without all-league keeper Kailen Sheridan in net for the first time in years. Gotham conceded the most xG in the league (50.05) and conceded 52 actual goals, good for the second worst mark in the league.
The offense lagged as well, as Gotham generated the second lowest total xG and scored the fewest goals outright. The team didn’t score a single goal in the month of September (before exploding for three in the season’s final game). A misfiring forward line and struggling midfield created a less than potent attacking combination. They finished last in ASA’s total team G+ differential table.
As you might imagine, the results were not pretty. Gotham’s final win of the 2022 campaign came on July 8th. Their record over the final 17 games of the season was 1-1-15.
As you might also imagine, Gotham got busy over the offseason. Here’s a position by position breakdown of the roster and who the team will be expecting to step up in 2023.
GOALKEEPER
A central question entering last season for Gotham was how exactly the team would replace the excellence of Kailen Sheridan. With Sheridan in San Diego, Gotham had a hole the size of 5.31 expected goals at ‘keeper. The team attempted to fill that hole with a platoon system - with two league-tested veterans Ashlyn Harris and Michelle Betos sharing minutes in net.
As you might assume from the first five grafs of this article, that plan… worked less than perfectly. Neither goalkeeper ever fully won the starting position, and neither came close to the xG defying heroics that came to define Sheridan’s tenure. Now, holding most goalkeepers to Sheridan’s standard is near impossible, especially in front of the leaky defense Harris and Betos were charged with commanding. But it’s hard to imagine Gotham wasn’t looking for better than the G-xG values of 3.17 from Betos and 4.83 from Harris.
As such, goalkeeper became the first position on the roster where Gotham made significant changes. Abby Smith, most recently a backup with the Portland Thorns, was brought in on a three year deal to give Gotham a fresh face between the sticks. Smith’s data from the previous two seasons is limited given her deputy role, but the limited data that does exist is positive - or perhaps negative? Smith posted a -1.35 G-xG in 2022, good for the 5th best mark in the league.
DEFENSE
Veteran USWNTer Kelley O’Hara was signed to shore up a backline that lost former league defender of the year Caprice Dydasco to a late season trade. Just one returning Gotham defender recorded a positive G+ score in 2022. O’Hara fits that description. Gotham also dipped into the pool of New Jersey-raised NWSL talent and brought home Kristen Edmonds, an ex-Rutgers star who carved out key roles in Western New York, Orlando, and Kansas City over her last nine years in the league. Edmonds graded positively on ASA’s G+ tables as well, posting her best results in the all-important “interrupting” category.
Away from the stat sheet, the pairing should bring some additional experience and consistency to a unit that lost two of its most senior members in Estelle Johnson (now with the North Carolina Courage) and Gina Lewandowski (retired).
Elsewhere in the defense, Gotham will mostly be sticking with their existing guns and hoping for a step forward and more consistency. Mandy Freeman quietly enjoyed a strong 2022, the one constant for Gotham amidst an often inconsistent backline. If Freeman can establish a strong partnership with Edmonds, there should be a major boost in the defensive numbers in Harrison. Ali Krieger offers another veteran presence in the center of the park.
Imani Dorsey has been through everything with Gotham at left back, and should be in line for another season of heavy usage this year. Elsewhere at fullback there’s Ellie Jean, who has ample international experience but never fully found form in 2022, and Sabrina Flores, who enjoyed a breakout 2020 campaign but has struggled for minutes since. Bruninha rounds out the list, bringing some promise and potential to a largely veteran core in her first full season in the league.
Player to watch: Nealy Martin. Martin, who spent two years with Racing Louisville after a standout career at Alabama, was one of Gotham’s first acquisitions of the offseason. It remains to be seen what her role will be in new coach Juan Carlos Amorós’ system - Martin was a rotational player for Louisville who only played roughly 600 total minutes - but Gotham clearly saw something they liked and moved quickly to bring her in off waivers. One of the few young faces in a largely veteran defensive group, Martin could be in line for serious minutes if any of Gotham’s older centerbacks require rest.
MIDFIELD
Gotham also made it a point to try and strengthen their midfield over the offseason. Perhaps the biggest “addition” to the center of the park for the club is Allie Long, who should slot right into the starting XI. Long took the 2022 season off due to maternity leave, and Gotham’s midfield was noticeably shakier without her metronomic and hyper-accurate passing at the base of the operation. She should immediately add a calming presence and defensive solidity to a unit that was run ragged in many of the team’s worst results last year.
Elsewhere in the ball-winning department, locker room leader McCall Zerboni is back for another season. One of the league’s most respected culture-setters off the pitch, the three time NWSL champ’s ball-winning efforts have yet to wane with age.
What Long and Zerboni can’t solve, however, is Gotham’s creativity problem. Last season, per FBRef, NJ/NY ranked dead last in total progressive passes. It wasn’t especially close either - Gotham was one of just two clubs to not break the 700 PrgP mark - and the other club (Orlando Pride), still easily outpaced them.
Gotham, unsurprisingly, knew they needed to get more creative. Victoria Pickett was brought in via a mid-season trade and brought with her a boost to the attacking midfield corps. General manager Yael Averbuch used her only pick in the first three rounds of the NWSL draft on Jenna Nighswonger, a national-title winning midfielder who’s at her best progressing the ball.
Kristie Mewis will also have a major role to play in Gotham’s midfield becoming more dynamic in 2023. Mewis produced just 2 goals and 3 assists in NWSL play in 2022, and her xG and xAG (per FBref) of 2.0 and 3.7 don’t show a significant underperformance of underlying numbers either. So what changed for Mewis, who had produced at least 7 xG+xAG per season since FBref began its database? At age 30, Mewis should be entering the back end of her prime, not tailing off. Amorós’ new system, which has been hinted to place an emphasis on pressing and direct passing, could be key in bringing Mewis back to her best.
Player to watch: Yazmeen Ryan. Ryan was the first of two major draft day acquisitions by Averbuch (more on the second later). Capable of playing either along the front line out wide or through the middle as an attacking midfielder, Ryan could fit into Amorós’ plans in a number of different ways. Ryan showed flashes of being a top tier chance creator for Portland and in her college days at TCU, but couldn’t break into the Thorns XI on a full-time basis. She’s in line to get a chance to take her game, and Gotham, to another level in 2023.
ATTACK
On the note of draft day additions, Gotham’s banner offseason acquisition was Lynn Williams. As far as attack-changing additions go, Williams is about as good as you can get. A USWNT staple at the peak of her powers, Williams notched 9+ goals each of her last four full NWSL campaigns. She’s got speed (and is willing to use in in a press), she’s got a final touch, and she could be the missing piece that unlocks the rest of Gotham’s attacking trio: Midge Purce and Ify Onumonu
Anyone who’s watched NWSL in the last three or so years knows the name Midge Purce. After a baffling miscasting at fullback early on in her Gotham career, Purce has spent the last several years being the main source of light on otherwise struggling front lines in Harrison. Purce led Gotham in G+ in 2022, and was in first place by light years.
Purce accounted for 2.5 goals added in 2022. The teams’ next five best players by G+ didn’t even account for half of that combined. The addition of Williams could finally be the complimentary piece that helps Purce’s obvious brilliance translate to better on pitch results.
Player to watch: Ify Onumonu. Ever under the radar, 2022 set up to be a breakout year for Onumonu. The perpetually underrated center forward had enjoyed a career year in 2021, and it stood to reason that her form would continue into 2022. But as Gotham struggled overall, so did Onumonu. She still did all the little things that make her a quality striker right - she holds up and connects play well, and wins aerial duels at an excellent rate - but the finishing touch eluded her. She found the back of the net just three times, and her xG lagged well below her 2021 numbers as well (down to 4.70 from 7.56 per ASA’s database). Gotham adding another quick forward who can run the channels could amplify the best aspects of Onumonu’s hold up game, and the new-look midfield should give her plenty of chances to find the back of the net herself.
Ultimately, Gotham is a team that needs to nail their acquisitions at every level of the field if they want to flip their fortunes from last place to playoff contention. Their success this season will come down to how well Juan Carlos Amorós can implement a new style, and how much of an impact the likes of Edmonds, O’Hara, Ryan, and Williams can make from game one onwards.
The summer months will likely be the most vital for Gotham, as they’re slated to lose their entire front three to the Women’s World Cup. Gotham isn’t without attacking depth - Delanie Sheehan showed promise in her rookie campaign, Taylor Smith looked the part of a shrewd waiver addition last summer, and Nahomi Kawasumi has been a useful squad member for years. Svava Rós Guðmundsdóttir was acquired from the Norwegian top flight as well to bring another fresh face to the existing attacking options. But no matter who it is, someone will need to step up and carry the load of losing three international caliber players over the summer months.
North Carolina: It might take some courage to watch this team
The North Carolina Courage have never existed without Debinha. Or Abby Erceg, for that matter. Now, they’ll have to figure out how. After a dynamic offseason that saw the Courage lose several key players and return players that accounted for only 56% of their 2022 regular-season minutes, a new-look North Carolina is set to take the field in 2023.
That might not be the worst thing in the world, considering how their 2022 season went. The Courage failed to make the playoffs for the first time in their short history last season. That aside, they also spent 12 consecutive weeks at the bottom of the standings, despite starting the season on a high note and winning the 2022 Challenge Cup.
Defensive woes
Once the regular season started, it was all downhill. This is largely because the Courage struggled to keep the ball out of the back of their own net. They conceded more goals per game than they have in any other season, at 1.5 goals on average. Their next-highest goals per game value was 0.96 in 2021. Some of this can be chalked up to lackluster goalkeeping.
Casey Murphy had the third-worst G-xG per 96’ of all goalkeepers who played at least 1000 minutes last season, and she also had a -0.23 goals added per 96’ value, most of which was due to a bleak -0.18 shot-stopping goals added. That’s the polar opposite of Murphy’s 2021 season, where she recorded +0.21 shot-stopping goals added per 96’. The Courage will hope Murphy returns to her 2021 form, especially given the changes to their backline they’re facing.
North Carolina traded Abby Erceg and Carson Pickett to Racing Louisville for Emily Fox, and sent Merritt Mathias to Angel City for Tyler Lussi. Last season, Erceg had the second highest goals added per 96’ value and the second-best passing score of all NWSL center backs who played at least 1,000 minutes. Carson Pickett will be missed for her attacking prowess, considering she co-led the NWSL in assists last year with six (tied with Chicago’s Mallory Swanson).
Emily Fox will slot in for Pickett, but it’s unclear who will pair up with veteran Kaleigh Kurtz in front of Murphy. Ryan Williams played next to Kurtz in the Courage’s live-streamed preseason match against Rayadas of Liga MX Femenil, but she played over 1000 minutes at full back last season for North Carolina. Williams may play more centrally this season, but that could have just been a preseason experiment for head coach Sean Nahas. Sydney Collins played full back in that match, and was largely responsible for the second goal the Courage conceded. It’s unlikely she’ll be making that mistake again (something about living and learning…), but it was definitely a tough one to watch.
Question marks in the midfield
Unfortunately for North Carolina, though, the backline probably isn’t the most impacted by their offseason moves. That distinction belongs to their midfield, who will be without Brazilian legend Debinha. Debinha was a huge reason why the Courage clawed their way out from 12th place last year, even if they didn’t find themselves in the playoff shortlist. She led all Courage players who recorded at least 500 minutes in goals added per 96’ last year, and combined with rookie Diana Ordóñez to score half of North Carolina’s goals in 2022 (23).
Newly named captain Denise O’Sullivan will be the new midfield anchor this season, and she’ll likely be paired with Brianna Pinto, who is poised to make more of an attacking impact this season in the wake of Debinha’s departure. Japanese international Narumi Miura signed with the Courage through the 2024 season and will likely get some minutes in the middle of the pitch. Clara Robbins, one of North Carolina’s draft picks, might also be making some appearances in the midfield this season. She played 110 games at Florida State University, which is the second-most in women’s college soccer history.
Kerolin and the rookies
The Courage attack will see the return of Kerolin, who scored six goals and assisted another four last year in an offense that scored the second-most goals of all teams (46). Kerolin had the best dribbling and receiving goals added per 96’ value of all Courage players who notched at least 500 minutes last season, too, which makes sense when one remembers she thrives at taking players on in the attacking third. Kerolin only played 1200 minutes in the regular season last year after having picked up a few knocks, so hopefully she can stay healthy and be a consistent option for the Courage attack in 2023.
Kerolin will likely be joined by North Carolina newcomers, especially in the wake of Ordóñez’ trade to Houston. Olivia Wingate, a draft pick out of Notre Dame, notched the Courage’s only goal in their match against Rayadas, so it’s possible she’ll continue to contribute to the scoresheet once the season actually starts. Haley Hopkins was drafted out of the University of Virginia and allegedly has a very similar attacking profile to Ordóñez, according to Courage head coach Sean Nahas. It remains to be seen if Hopkins can have the impact that Ordóñez did in her rookie season, but those are pretty big shoes to fill. Ordóñez broke the NWSL rookie scoring record last season after scoring 11 goals.
In any case, hopefully North Carolina’s newest additions will help the returners patch the holes left by Debinha and co. If they don’t, the Courage will get real familiar with the bottom of the standings for the second year in a row.
Cowabunga: A Ball Progression story
By Kieran Doyle
2022 was a spicy first season for NWSL expansion club San Diego Wave, with a third placed regular season finish and a first round playoff elimination to eventual champs Portland Thorns. Building a professional soccer team is difficult and it’s hard to say that 2022 was anything but a success for the Wave, but expectations will be higher in 2023 for a talented group.
How good was this team in 2022?
Let’s break this down a few ways. We’ll start pictographically. Shoutout @ChicagoDmitry on twitter and his delightful McLach Bot, which is spitting out useful stats and infographics across the FBRef covered BroSo and WoSo leagues, for the team style radar below.
Fig. Offsides, Fouls, xGA, and shots conceded are all inverted (big, green is a low number)
What were the Wave in 2022? A well rounded decent team who didn’t give up a whole lot defensively, and absolutely pumped balls into your box. Now one thing to note, this graphic includes the top European leagues as well, so your comparatively much higher parity league in NWSL likely won’t match up to mega xG dominant teams like Barcelona or Arsenal in xG or xGA, but this gives you a much bigger range of teams to compare against for team style statistics like long ball%.
Sheridan good imo
Numerically, things get pretty interesting. The Wave were good. 4th in NWSL by xG difference, third by g+ difference. Where they shine is defensively - the Wave had the fewest non penalty expected goals conceded, but conceded a whopping seven (7) PKs in 2022. Sheridan (more on her later) saved four of them. Conceding penalties is not a particularly stable trend and is more or less random, so if the Wave concede two or three in 2023, their goals conceded might improve even further. One of the nice boons that is just always going to keep the Wave competitive on this end of the field is Kailen Sheridan. Top tier bullet sponge Katie Lund snatched the G-xG crown from Sheridan last season, but on a per xG basis Sheridan actually eclipsed her at a G/xG of 0.81 to Lund’s 0.84. On a per 96 minute basis, Sheridan now has three of the six best goalkeeping shot stopping seasons in the entire ASA database. Her return in 2023 is critical to this team’s continued success.
Brick wall, waterfall, Kailen Sheridan’s got it all
Launch It
“Roses are red, water comes in liters, Taylor Kornieck can launch a 90 kg soccer ball over 300 meters.”
On the other side of the ball, the picture is slightly less rosy. There are, to put it mildly, a few red flags Waving in San Diego’s attack. By xG, SD are 4th. By all the pre-xG attacking predictors (box entries, shot count, box touches, progressive passes, passes into the final third, so on and so forth) the Wave are firmly midtable, which is fairly out of sync with their xG. Even by g+, if we look at g+ earned in just the penalty boxes, San Diego have a higher g+ difference than the teams ranked third, fourth, and fifth put together. They are the real life embodiment of the pre-eminent ball progression meme.
Add in that the Wave are bottom in the league (by a lot) in progressive carries, it can be somewhat unclear how the Wave establish themselves in the final third. For that, I refer you to the poem and team style radar above. The Wave do two things: kick it far, and kick it into the box. Kim McCauley wrote a really great piece about some of the limitations of Kornieck playing in a deeper midfield role that can be found here. Kornieck wasn’t quite the pure 6 she has been asked to be by Vlatko, but she has spent a lot of time as the more free member of a double pivot. Dropping deep to play long and making runs into the box. As a team, the Wave hit the most long balls in all of NWSL. The thing is, they did a good job at it. G+ loves zone movement even if you don’t connect on them, but you still need to connect enough. As much as some of these are hopeful trebuchets launched into box, some of them are weighted passes over the top for a speeding Alex Morgan into depth. The problem with this is you remain somewhat at the whims of randomness and have a much lower degree of control around the game. If teams deal with first balls well or deny space behind, how well can you get your attack going?
San Diego Wave Long balls with a g+ value above 0.015.
Attack, maybe not as good
Transactions
Rachel Hill and Dani Colaprico signed in Free Agency
Drafted midfielder Sierra Enge (13th overall), GK Lauren Brzykcy (33rd overall), midfielder Gianna DeMarco (45th overall)
My biggest concern in 2023 is the attack. Alex Morgan put up 10 of the Wave’s 27 non penalty goals last year. The next closest attacker had three. Relying on a 33-soon-to-be-34 year old who put up her best attacking season in at least five years seems fraught with peril. Especially when the season you are relying on her for features a recently expanded World Cup tournament that the USWNT should run pretty deep in and Alex Morgan should play lots of minutes in. Seems risky. Jaedyn Shaw has some very exciting numbers in some very small sample, and San Diego might need her sooner than they expect. At the same time, Kornieck was behind on her xG and there is probably room for more output from Sofia Jakobsson and Makenzy Doniak. Probably not great that I have to squint and pray for a sensible attack.
Danny Colaprico should be an addition in midfield and somewhat of a solution to the “ball magically moves to the other side of the pitch dw” issue, but she was also the 5th worst player in the entire league by g+ in 2022. Her passing, dribbling, interrupting, and fouling all profile as about a league average midfielder but her receiving and shooting drag her WAY down. So far down that I don’t even know how it’s possible for that to be real, so we’ll just ignore it and say she’ll be a fine and useful addition. Idk, math is weird. Rachel Hill adds really useful fullback talent and wing depth if necessary, and was an elite ball progressor statistically down the wings in 2022 (mostly through just carrying it). There’s something there.
At the same time, all the defensive glory I mentioned above is very real. And that, that is the platform for 2023.