2023 NWSL Season Previews: Portland Thorns, Racing Louisville, Angel City FC
/Portland continues to be a thorn in the league’s side
After having the regular season crown slip through their fingers in the final game of the season, the Portland Thorns redeemed themselves in the playoffs and secured their third NWSL Championship to end 2022. While no one actually expected the Thorns to struggle last season (see here for last season’s preview), they still exceeded expectations in a lot of ways.
The Thorns were in the top third of the NWSL standings for all but two weeks of the season in 2022. They amassed a 10W-9D-3L record and lost the fewest games of all teams. Despite this, they finished the regular season in second place after failing to come away with a win against last-place NJ/NY Gotham FC in their season finale. They scored 49 goals last season, which was the most of all teams, and conceded 24. Their 16.42 xGD led the league, as did their actual +25 GD. For reference, the next highest GD in the NWSL last season was +13 (OL Reign, North Carolina).
So, who can the Thorns thank for their success in 2022? The list might be quite long, but there’s no doubt that Sophia Smith’s name should be at the top.
Sophia Smith supremacy
Smith scored 14 goals and recorded three assists on her way to breaking the single-season scoring record for the Thorns. She also scored the eventual game-winner in the championship against Kansas City and earned the NWSL Championship MVP award, which paired nicely with her 2022 NWSL MVP trophy.
Of all players who recorded at least 1056 minutes (i.e., half of the season’s minutes), Smith led the league in several statistical categories, normalized per 96 minutes of play. Specifically, Smith recorded the highest xG (0.77), shots (5.97), and shots on target (2.95). She was second-best in goals per 96’, too, only behind Alex Morgan of the San Diego Wave (0.86).
Smith also led the league in goals added per 96’ (0.39), and that value was even higher than the 2021 season’s mark (0.26), where she also led the league. Smith has been recovering from an injury in the offseason, but there’s no doubt that she’ll come back and perform at these levels for the third season in a row. Some of her attacking teammates are likely to do the same in 2023, too.
Morgan Weaver’s upward trajectory
While Smith garnered most of the league’s attention – and for good reason – her teammate Morgan Weaver also played a big role for the Thorns. Weaver scored seven goals and notched three assists, which translated to 0.50 goals per 96’ last season. Weaver was only behind Smith, Morgan, and Mallory Swanson (Chicago Red Stars) in expected goals generated per 96’ (0.59) in 2022. She saw improvements in several categories from 2021 to 2022, and we should expect her to continue on this upward trajectory in 2023.
Defensive spotlights
Taking a step back from the Thorns attack, their midfield was mostly dictated by another player who had a breakout season: Sam Coffey. Despite being more of an attacker at Penn State, Coffey was an NWSL Rookie of the Year candidate in 2022 after taking on a defensive midfield role for the Thorns. Of defensive midfielders who played at least 1056 minutes, Coffey recorded the highest goals added per 96’ of all DMs (0.06), and much of that was due to her passing goals added, which was also highest of all the league defensive midfielders (0.06). Given the midfield rotation that U.S. women’s national team head coach Vlatko Andonovski has been leaning toward ahead of the World Cup, it’s likely that Coffey won’t be competing for the United States this summer. That’s sad news for Coffey, but good news for the Thorns.
To round out this discussion of (merely a handful) of Portland’s key players, goalkeeper Bella Bixby had a strong showing between the sticks in 2022. She had the second-best shot-stopping goals added per 96’ (0.19) of all starting ‘keepers last season (0.19, only behind Racing’s Katie Lund). Bixby conceded the third-fewest goals per 96’ with 0.93, but faced a post-shot expected goals value of 1.11. She led the league – with OL Reign’s Phallon Tullis-Joyce – in clean sheets, with nine. That means the Thorns stopped their opponents from scoring in 41% of their games last season. Not too bad.
Returning players, draftees, and a new head coach
Of course, Portland’s roster is so stacked that we can walk through the 2022 statistical resumes for more than just Smith, Weaver, Coffey, and Bixby. The key here, though, is that Portland is returning pretty much all of their key players in 2023.
The Thorns are returning players that accounted for 91.4% of their 2022 regular-season minutes, which is only behind the OL Reign. Only one player who isn’t returning, Yazmeen Ryan, even saw the field for more than 500 minutes in a Portland jersey in 2022. The Thorns will also see the return of a fully fit Crystal Dunn, who played 66 regular season minutes (123 total minutes) for Portland after giving birth to her son in May 2022. Of note, however, is that Janine Beckie tore her ACL in the Thorns’ latest preseason match, and she will miss the entire season for Portland (and the 2023 World Cup).
Portland also drafted four players and have since signed two of them: Lauren Kozal (goalkeeper, 32nd overall, Michigan State) and Izzy D’Aquila (forward, 12th overall, Santa Clara). Kozal racked up a career save percentage of 0.78 at Michigan State, but she clearly peaked at the right time. In her last collegiate season, she recorded 10 shutouts and 63 saves in 2022, along with the second-highest save percentage (0.81) and lowest goals-against average (0.68) of her career. D’Aquila scored 50 goals and recorded 16 assists in her career at Santa Clara, and in her final season she was tied with eventual number-one-overall draft pick Michelle Cooper (Kansas City Current) for second-most goals in the nation (19). While Kozal will add depth to the Thorns roster, it’s likely that D’Aquila will see significant minutes in the attack this season, especially thinking ahead to the 2023 World Cup.
Speaking of the World Cup, it’s possible that Portland will stumble during that window. Lucky for them, the restructuring of the NWSL schedule means that the Challenge Cup makes up the biggest window of games that national-team players are likely to miss. Even so, players will miss time before and after the competition for training camps and recovery, respectively.
The Portland midfield will be hit the hardest. There are seven midfielders listed on their latest roster, and the Thorns will likely be missing Crystal Dunn (US), Rocky Rodriguez (Costa Rica), Christine Sinclair (Canada), and Hina Sugita (Japan) this summer. That only leaves Olivia Moultrie, Taylor Porter, and Sam Coffey as options for the Thorns midfield, which means they’ll have to either (1) play players out of position or (2) sign national team replacement players. While the Thorns will probably sort this midfield mystery sooner rather than later, it’s one of the biggest question marks for this team heading into the 2023 season.
Another major question mark is about their coaching staff. Former head coach Rhian Wilkinson resigned as head coach of the Thorns in the offseason, and assistant coach Mike Norris was appointed head coach in January. Norris has NWSL and international coaching experience (Canada women’s national team), but has yet to make his head-coaching debut. He also may or may not know that only 11 players can take the field at once during a soccer game. Regardless, Norris is stepping into a pretty good scenario, given the fact that Portland’s returning so many players who won a trophy in 2022. We’ll have to wait and see if they’ll be able to repeat the magic this season and capture back-to-back NWSL Championships for the first time in club history, but the odds are looking pretty good in Portland.
GO BIG PURP
By Arielle Dror
We’re now approaching three seasons of the existence of Racing Louisville’s history and it’s been largely marred by controversy and really bad soccer. Since 2021, they’ve been impacted by the following:
The hiring and subsequent firing of an abusive coach who also lacked proper licensure to hold the job in the first place
A relatively ineffective expansion draft that did not set them up on the right foot (Caitlin Foord, we will never forget you)
Two seasons at or near the bottom of the league (more on that later)
This wasn’t all that has gone wrong for Racing, but it really paints a pretty bleak picture. And after several years of suffering, might it finally be Racing’s time to slip into the playoffs?
Previously…
Racing Louisville’s inaugural season went quite poorly by most accounts, but it wasn’t entirely their fault. For one, entering the league during COVID meant that most of their college draft picks opted to defer an additional season. Convincing players that Louisville is an attractive destination is a much harder sell than subsequent expansion locations like San Diego or Los Angeles, which meant their expansion draft picks weren’t particularly strong either. So, Racing’s roster might not have been what they had hoped.
In 2021, the team had the worst xGD in the league (-20), more than double the second lowest team. By the time 2022 rolled around, most of the players who played active roles in their inaugural season were no longer with the team (Savannah McCaskill, Yuki Nagasato, Michelle Betos), injured (Nadia Nadim), or traded during the season (Cece Kizer, Ebony Salmon). Very few players from that inaugural season remain on Racing’s roster this season.
The 2022 season left Louisville at the bottom of the pack in terms of xGD and left a lot to be desired offensively. No single player created more than about 3.25 xG over the course of the season, signaling the attack was relatively unproductive. On a positive note, they were relatively dangerous on set pieces, ranking in the middle of the pack for the league in xG created from various set pieces (of course, they also ranked near the bottom for xG conceded from set pieces because they were could not defend in any context – more on that below). Not all hope was lost: the team also ranked between middle of the pack to top for a lot of metrics that herald a team of unrealized potential: entries into penalty area and final third (7/12), progressive passes (6/12) and carries (3/12) are all great signs that they were able to move the ball, but not always into dangerous areas or convert those into meaningful chances.
That is, except for Savannah Demelo who was somewhat of a revelation and one-person attack for Racing. Demelo ranked near the top of the league in most offensive stats last season, including shot-creating actions, according to fbref. Demelo was responsible for almost a quarter of the team’s shot-creating actions, something both impressive for a rookie and completely unsustainable.
This team was defensively atrocious. The season started out with a center back duo of Gemma Bonner and Julia Lester before Lester shifted to fullback midseason with Satara Murray taking her place. You can see here that both extremely busy defensively, ranking extremely high in their clearances and blocks, but never succeeded in winning the ball back. They also struggled Both defenders struggling mightily to pass the ball out of the back as well. All in all, not the picture of a particularly strong center back duo, but this year’s setup will surely be an improvement.
One disappointment was in midfielder Jaelin Howell. The two time Mac Hermann winner was expected to be a shining star for Racing and has not necessarily lived up to the expectations that many people had for her. However, it has been reported that she spent most of the season dealing with injury, so it’s unclear to what extent she was limited. Having better defenders behind her could also go a long way to setting her up for success.
One saving grace of last season was the emergence of goalkeeper Katie Lund. A competent shotstopper is key to keeping your team in games and Lund definitely fit the bill in her breakout season. Lund conceded 35 goals on about 41 xG and earned the highest g+ for keepers last season. While she has room to improve, particularly within her distribution where she is about league average, her shotstopping performance kept Louisville competitive within games this season. Lund didn’t receive many season award shouts because Louisville was such a bad team, but if Louisville is better and she keeps up she’ll surely be in contention in 2023.
Enter the New Era…
Although not a rebuild by any means, Louisville spent the offseason (and the end of last season) bolstering their roster in the areas they needed most. It’s not exactly simple to get statistics on all these players as they are entering from leagues where data is not easily found.
Louisville desperately needs a clinical forward and they might have found it in the form of Nigerian national team player Uchenna Kanu. In her two pro seasons in Sweden and Mexico, Kanu has scored at a rate of roughly a goal every other game. A goal scoring rate like that in the NWSL would surely put her in contention for the Golden Boot race this season. A caveat here: while there have been very few players who have jumped to NWSL from Liga MX Feminil, none of them have yet made the same breakout splash with their new teams. That’s not to say that Kanu won’t be lights out for Louisville, but rather that a goal scoring rate like that would be rather unexpected. If she does, Louisville has hit a jackpot. But even if her goal scoring rate drops off due to the increased competency of NWSL defenses, a couple more goals from her will surely help Louisville’s long-standing goal scoring woes.
As mentioned before, Louisville’s defense was absolutely horrendous and Racing made significant moves to improve there as well. Around the draft, the team sent their first ever draft pick, national team fullback Emily Fox, to North Carolina in return for league veterans Abby Erceg and Carson Pickett. In Erceg, they added a top tier league centerback. Even last season, which was one of Erceg’s weakest since the league started stat tracking, is still one of the strongest season’s for a centerback in terms of g+. Pickett, on the other hand, is probably the only fullback in the league that is actually an improvement on Fox. In Pickett, they get a fullback who is extremely capable of controlling the flanks and moving the ball into the box:
Alongside this trio, Racing also added midfielder/forwards Brazilian international Ary Borges and Chinese national Wang Shuang who will add creativity to the team (unfortunately no stats are available for them, so we’ll have to trust). They also added Finnish international Elli Pikkujämsä as an option in central defense who can also play as a defensive midfielder.
With these offseason additions joining a slowly growing core of players, it feels as though Racing’s roster is on the precipice of something great if it can come together. Preseason results have been promising with several wins in the Thorns preseason tournament and additional wins against other league teams, with many of those goal contributions coming from new players. And while preseason doesn’t always mean anything, several seasons ago Louisville’s preseasons were less than positive so there’s definitely growth there.
At the end of last season, Racing had its work cut out for them. They made moves to drastically improve their roster and that leads me to believe that at the very least, they have a competitive roster that should give them a fighting chance to earn a playoff spot. Whether that happens is at the whim of the Chaos Gods. The last two seasons had several teams fighting for the last spots in the postseason on the final day of the season. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Louisville there too.
Come spend a day with me as a pro soccer player GM for Angel City FC
By Kieran Doyle
Look, launching a new professional sports franchise is hard. You have to worry about what your TikTok followers will think. You have all these extra affordances and every single other team knows you do, so they squeeze the life out of you in every trade. Sure, 2022 went poorly. A -7 expected goal difference isn’t great, but it was far from the bottom of the league, neither is missing the playoffs in your inaugural season. But there are mitigating circumstances, right? Star winger Christen Press AND 2021 Defender of the Year finalist Sarah Gorden suffered season ending knee injuries (#BanKnees), defensive midfield destroyer Julie Ertz never ended up signing, starting center back and set piece target extraordinaire Vanessa Gilles was inexplicably loaned to Lyon. Those players come back and they’ll feel like new signings. Add in a league leading attendance and there is a clear financial runway for this team to improve in 2023. Let’s talk about how.
Notable Transactions
Out: Tyler Lussi, Cari Roccaro
In: Merit Matthias, Katie Johnson, Alyssa Thompson, Sarah Gorden
Figuring Out How to Score Goals
The attack sucked in 2022. 24 xG in 22 games is just not going to get you anywhere you need to go. Neither is Savannah McCaskill being your leading scorer. McCaskill is a really interesting player, and her swiss army knife-esque versatility to do so many different jobs is such a useful tool in squad building, but if she is your best attacker there is a bigger issue. Jun Endo is young and showed some feel as a passer, but much like Clarise Le Bihan and McCaskill, didn’t turn enough of those in-between-the-lines moments into high-quality scoring chances. Angel City had the 4th worst xG per shot in the entire league. At the same time, that group all show up as significantly below average receivers by our g+ metric - that is, not enough box touches.
Now is that a them problem, or a forward problem? I’m a sucker for ‘tweener forward midfielders who probably don’t get enough shots themselves to play in an attacking line, but all three of the names above do enough passing and receiving of progressive passes that with the right striker there’s something there. Angel City’s best stretch of the season was 4-3-3’s and 4-2-3-1’s with Press and Endo wide, Charley as the 9 stretching the line, McCaskill underneath. Charley has put up interesting attacking output (lots of running behind, lots of shots with high xG/shot) at her previous stops in limited minutes, but those metrics cratered last season and she has zero track record of remaining injury free. Fun fact: Charley had more progressive passes received in that three match stretch mentioned above than in the next 10 weeks following it. Pressure in behind on the backline is important! At the same time, there probably wasn’t enough passing from the Roccaro-Weatherholt duo to feed runners.
Enter stage left: Alyssa Thompson. I am not going to pretend to be up to date with the US Prep School circuit and have some xG data on the remarkable 48 goals in 18 games stat, and unfortunately ASA doesn’t have access to the MLS Next academy data (building a BroSo to WoSo conversion would be a fun experiment), so all I’ve got is some eyeballs and some clips.
Oh boy. I’m not going to over analyze one clip, but a few remarks. Being as fast as Thompson is basically a super power in soccer. Defenders have to mark you differently, you get referee’d differently, and it opens up a whole bunch of things that just aren’t available to slow people. The second is that if she’s already dropping the shoulder to round the goalkeeper, the league might be in trouble. Rounding the goalkeeper is the single easiest way for muy rapido strikers who can’t shoot to score more goals. Who needs to finish when the net is literally empty.
A Solid Platform to Build From
On the flip side, Angel City were generally organized and solid. This sounds like a boring thing to say, but at least having a clear defensive identity, even if you’re lacking talent, is such a huge floor raiser. Angel City had the 5th worst xGA in 2022, but they’re the same distance from 2nd as they are from last. Opponents took a below league average xG/shot against. Add in that DiDi Haracic is a career xG beater and the recipe for a top defensive record is clear.
On the flip side, Angel City conceded the most passes into the final third, the second most passes into the penalty area, and the third most crosses into the penalty area. Needless to say, room for improvement at both defensive midfield and at centerback. While Gilles is legit, she isn’t back until after Lyon’s season. Luckily, the return of Sarah Gorden is huge. Her recovery pace in behind really enables you to be so much more aggressive with your press. The biggest question mark heading into the 2023 NWSL season for me lies at defensive midfield. Dani Weatherholt was the worst DM in the entire league by g+ in 2022 and profiles as a slight negative across all the major categories in g+. She is mildly active defensively (blocks, tackles, clearances etc.) but there are two red flags. 1) Her interceptions lag behind the rest of her defensive actions, which can sometimes be attributed to the role, but interceptions are significantly more valuable than other defensive actions and 2) there is just 0 passing output. Cari Roccaro is off to Chicago for a sack of $65000 in cash. Unfortunately, money cannot itself play in midfield. I expect Angel City will attempt to fill the gaping void that is their DM or double pivot spot with somebody from Europe come summer time (or maybe Ertz will spontaneously decide to come back).
Expectations for 2023
Please stop trading away your draft picks for aging stars who are constantly injured or not good anymore. Otherwise have fun and enjoy watching your young players cook!
RIP to our lost draft picks for players who haven’t performed or played