San Jose Earthquakes - Luchi: Gucci?

If you are a San Jose Earthquakes fan, your neck is still recovering from the whiplash of last season (yeah, and probably from that Atlanta United game, but these are still preseason previews, right?).

If you are not a fan, then you are probably not very aware of all the comings and goings last year of people not named Matias Almeyda. Chofis, the top goalscorer from 2021? Gone mid-season. Francisco Calvo, the most entertaining player in MLS this side of Nouhou Tolo? Gone mid-season. Marcos Lopez, the U-22 player trying to help Peru get that last World Cup spot? Gone mid-season. At least they got a bit of money back for Calvo and Lopez.

In came Rodrigues, a Brazilian center back. In came Carlos Akapo at right back, but he didn’t play at all because of Eden Hazard. In came Miguel Trauco at left back, the older guy that Lopez has been slowly replacing for Peru.

All-in-all the Earthquakes played some pretty wide-open attacking soccer in 2022, behind Cristian Espinoza and Jeremy Ebobisse, and that got them 52 goals. But wide-open attacking soccer left them very exposed in the back, with and without Almeyda, and they conceded a league high 69.

The reasons are pretty obvious from this Where Goals Come From visualization. Giving up 12 goals from Normal passes means that attackers are waltzing through the center of the pitch. Goals conceded from corners (nine of them!) was an Almeyda staple and didn’t improve under interim coach Alex Covelo. 15 goals conceded from Individual play either means you gave up a lot of rebounds, had a lot of turnovers in the back, or both.

So General Manager Chris Leitch did in the offseason what he should have done. He finished replacing the entire defense, plus the starting defensive midfielder (Eric Remedi is out as well), and got a new keeper from Brazil who started over JT Marcinkowski on Saturday. Only Paul Marie remained on Saturday from 2022’s opening game starters, and that was probably because Akapo got a knock in preseason. The slight-of-frame Marie led all San Jose defenders in both g+ and g- last season.

The new defensive midfielder, Carlos Gruezo from Augsburg for a club-record $3M transfer fee, is no newbie to MLS or even Luchi Gonzalez. Their time overlapped a bit at FC Dallas. JT Marcinkowski, who replaced poor performers first in 2018 and then in 2020, has himself been replaced -- for now -- by Daniel (de Sousa Brito) acquired for ~$600K out of Brazil. While the Quakes were in the market for a CB in the offseason, they didn’t get one until desperate times called for desperate measures when RCB Nathan went down with an ACL tear. Leitch moved quickly to secure Jonathan Mensah from the Crew.

Everything makes sense, for the most part. Fans are struggling with the Daniel over JT Marcikowski move, but I can explain this one.

According to the American Soccer Analysis’ Goalkeeper Interactive Tables and every other data provider, JT gave up between 8 and 10 goals more than he should have, and that was enough to do something. Internacional made Daniel, their starting keeper for the last two seasons, available since his much cheaper backup got white hot when Daniel went down for a few games with a knock. Given he was one of the top two in the Brazilian Serie A in both goals saved over expected and goals added, that’s an easy call for the Quakes three new data analysts and their Brazilian head of scouting, Bruno Costa, to make.

Given his historical numbers, Daniel has the potential to be a top-five shot-stopper in MLS, and it looks like he’s going to get the shot. This trendline shows that’s probably a good bet to make. Improving 15 goals on last season’s 69 just at the goalkeeper position puts the Quakes near the playoffs if they can repeat the 52 scored.

New head coach Luchi Gonzalez is fresh off his time with the USMNT as an assistant under Gregg Berhalter. Conversations with Luchi sound similar to how Gregg sounded during World Cup Qualifying: Lots of talk about rest defensive structures, pressing and triggers, verticality and more. It’s all well-and-good if it works as well as USMNT did in World Cup Qualifying and less well or good if it works like the USMNT games went in the World Cup. Either outcome would be a massive improvement for the Quakes.

It’s a low bar to improve on the defensive side, but the question is if the offensive side will keep up. Ebobisse is not a bad bet to repeat his 17 goals (easy for me to say since he’s already scored one), since his underlying numbers say if he keeps shooting as many shots as he does and scoring at a typical rate, it’s there for him. On the high end, there’s an MLS Golden Boot waiting.

Since 2019, only Carles Gil has more assists of any player still in MLS than right winger Cristian Espinoza. He’s the most underrated winger, and maybe Designated Player, in the league. Even Goals Added underrates him every season:

Regardless, Espinoza is a cutback-creating machine, got nine primary assists last season, and routinely makes left backs look silly. If preseason is any indication, he might just start scoring more goals, too.

On the left side is the combination of Cade Cowell and Benji Kikanovic. Last year they combined for 10 non-penalty goals (Benji - 6, Cade - 4). The top goal-scoring winger in MLS in 2022 was Paul Arriola also with 10 goals. So it’s kinda working…? They both could be gone by the end of the season as well given European transfer rumors that persist. Goals Added similarly dislikes both of them. In 2022, Kikanovic was the fourth highest Goals+Assists winger in the league on a per 96 basis, and the higher three players were all Designated Players.

Then comes the attacking midfielders: Jamiro Monteiro, Jackson Yueill, and 17-year-old Niko Tsakiris. Niko is expected to be out a lot for the USMNT run in the U-20 World Cup this season, so Michael Baldisimo, a homegrown from Vancouver acquired through the re-entry draft, is likely to get a lot of time as well. Monteiro is that player that you love to watch and is routinely the best player on the field, but just doesn’t have a lot of numbers to show for it. He has creativity on the ball, but also hustles all over the place and covers a ton of ground. However, his xG+xA numbers are very low for an attacking mid. If the Quakes are going to threaten any higher than the midtable of the West, it will be on the back of a much bigger year for Monteiro, who had a fantastic preseason. Jackson Yueill, who has been overburdened with midfield responsibility in the last two season and has just looked worn out at times, looks much fresher with a very clear attacking responsibility with Carlos Gruezo behind him instead of Eric Remedi. Luchi already seems to have gotten more out of Yueill in terms of his ability to progress the ball again from preseason and the opening game, and that’s very good news for Quakes fans who were beginning to wonder if Captain Jackson should move on.

The formula for the Quakes is simple: Score 50 goals and improve defensively around 30% with some actual defense and better shot-stopping. That will get them into a ninth spot or better easily and accomplish Luchi’s first-year goal of being in the playoffs. There’s a decent chance they can do it, too, given they won’t play Thiago Almada again this season.