2023 Season Previews: Houston Dynamo, Inter Miami, Orlando City
/We’re rolling out 2023 MLS Season previews ahead of the regular season that kicks off on Saturday, February 25, which is definitely something happening in the future, and has certainly has not already occurred, as you obviously know. You can find all our previews here!
Houston Dynamo: Orange you glad they didn’t finish last?
By Zach Beery
The 2022 season preview for the Dynamo ended with myself proclaiming that “anything above last in the Western Conference will be seen as a win for Houston fans.” Well, Houston did it – finishing second to last in the Western conference. However, I do not think it felt like a win to Houston fans or Houston coach Paulo Nagamura, who was fired after 29 games.
2022 in Review
While Houston did not finish last in the Western conference for the third straight year, the underlying performance continued to drop. Houston’s g+ differential per 96 for the 2022 season was at -0.32, Houston’s lowest differential since 2013.
There was hope with Mexican captain Hector Herrera arriving in the middle summer, that the Dynamo could make a push for the playoffs. Within his limited minutes, Herrera finished the season at 0.12 g+ per 96, highest g+ for all DMs with more than 700 minutes. However, the overall team performances did not turn around. Using fbref’s xG On – Off, the Dynamo’s xG differential was -0.35 worse with HH on the field. There is a lot of noise with this stat but I think it brings up some questions about Herrera’s overall impact, especially on the defensive end.
When Herrera was on the field, his most common partners in the midfield were Coco Carrisquilla and Matias Vera. With those three, there really was no true number 6 or destroyer. With HH possibly holding back to avoid injury before the World Cup, there were frequent holes in the midfield for the other team to easily get into the final third. Dynamo ended the season with 54 goals against and 54 expected goals, 3rd worst in the league.
Offseason Roster Changes
During the offseason, it felt like every other day the Dynamo admin was tweeting about a new addition, on and off the field. Dynamo, making the playoffs once in nine years, needed to change everything – players, manager and backroom staff.
Players
There was almost a complete overhaul from the Matt Jordan era with players like Darwin Quintero, Tim Parker, Adam Lundqvist, Matias Vera, Fafa Picault and Memo Rodriguez leaving during the offseason and Pat Onstad bringing in nine new players to the Dynamo organization. One quality the Dynamo seemed to be targeting was “winners” or player who have been on winning teams.
Key MLS veterans were added like Artur, Brad Smith and Franco Escobar to shore up the defense. While attackers Amine Bassi and Ivan Franco were brought in internationally to replace the ball-dominant shot creating hub of Darwin Quintero.
All said and done, the Dynamo are returning less than 58% of minutes played during the 2022 season.
Head Coach
After failing with Tab Ramos and Paulo Nagmura (both first time domestic head coaches), it was important to the Dynamo organization to hire a coach with MLS head coaching experience. This led the organization to bring in Ben Olsen as the new manager. Olsen last coached for DCU in 2020 and worked multiple jobs, including TV consultant and amateur artist, before coming back to coach for Houston.
Results were mixed for Olsen in DCU, winning the US Open Cup in 2013 but having an overall winning percentage of 35%.
Between 2013 and 2020, DCU never finished as an above average team using g+ differential per game.
Other Changes:
Dynamo are finally back in the data game. Houston Dynamo FC hired SRC FTBL to build an analytics department. SRC FTBL was started by data analytics legends Sarah Rudd and Ravi Ramineni. The Dynamo also brought in ASA contributor Carlon Carpenter as the Head Video Analyst.
One Big Question – Can Sebastián Ferreira be an elite average striker?
In his first season, Sebas finished the 2022 season with 13 goals (11 non-penalty goals) and two assists outperforming his overall goal output by about two. Okay numbers but his 0.4 npxG + xAG per 90 ranked in the 30th percentile according to fbref. Even more damning was his -0.08 g+ per 96, which ranks in the ninth percentile for strikers since 2013.
Historically, strikers in their second season in MLS have improved by 0.01 g+ per 96 on average since 2014. The Dynamo will need Ferreira to consistently get into dangerous areas to score because he does not contribute much in hold up play or with his passing (-0.04 passing g+). The Dynamo do not currently have any other proven goal scorers (no current player on the team has scored more than five goals in the last two seasons) so a lot of the burden will be on Ferreira. Based on historical trends, there is not a lot of hope but Brenner was in a similar situation to Ferreira last year. In Brenner’s first year with FCC, Brenner had a -0.12 g+ per 96. Brenner improved his g+ per 96 to +0.05 in his second year.
The hope is that Sebas can level up with new talent – Amine Bassi, Ivan Franco and full season of HH - surrounding him similar to Brenner in his second season with Luciano Acosta and Brandon Vazquez. However, the Dynamo did have elite shot creator Darwin Quintero (90th percentile in shot creating actions) in the team last year so I am skeptical of a large production jump for Sebas in the upcoming season.
2023 Prognosis
Pat Onstad and his team made a plethora of moves, laying the groundwork for an analytics department and bringing in fresh eyes to the coaching staff, this offseason that I think will help the franchise be more respectable in the future. However, I think the hole is still too deep for the Dynamo to break the playoff curse, even with the expansion to nine teams per conference.
Inter Miami CF: It’s Gonna Be Messi
By Kevin Nelson
Hold onto your seats folks, shocking news incoming – Inter Miami is getting better! Don’t get too excited and definitely sit back down if you did get out of your seat, they’re still far from contending. But trending in the right direction is momentous for a franchise that ranked 4th-worst in Major League Soccer in both expected goal (xG) differential and goals added (g+) differential from 2020-2021. Any improvement, any at all really, from that nadir is worth celebrating and it all culminated in their first-ever postseason berth. Continuing that growth is the challenge for 2023 and there is much work for sporting director Chris Henderson and head coach Phil Neville to do to make that happen.
Unfortunately, they are still shackled in that effort by the incompetence of original recipe Inter Miami. That incompetence included a litany of designated player shenanigans and roster tomfoolery that subjected them to league sanctions that severely reduced their allocation budget in both 2022 and 2023. The punishment forced a hard reset upon Miami last season, when only 37.5% of the team’s minutes returned from the prior year after Henderson gutted the roster into compliance. Nevertheless, Miami got better.
A disgusting 2021 non-penalty xG differential of -15.03 progressed to a more respectable -4.88 in 2022. Their performances improved as the year went on as well, shaking off a rough start and building into a strong late season push as the new pieces coalesced.
The marketing executives at MLS would love you to believe Comeback Player of the Year Gonzalo Higuain fueled their second-half improvement. He certainly deserves his share of credit, but no more than his supporting cast. Attribute Miami’s growth just as much, if not more, to a breakout season from Wolverhampton loanee Leonard Campana, strong shotstopping from Drake Callender, and stability in a midfield pivot that featured Jan Gregore and Jean Mota, both of whom were in the top ten in minutes among defensive midfielders. Acquiring Alejandro Pozuelo from Toronto at a cut-rate price that actually fit within their allocation budget was a welcome addition to that mix too. The former MVP ranked 5th in MLS in ball receipts in Zone 14 and 9th among attacking midfielders in g+ above average per 96 after the trade.
Back-to-back Comeback Players of the Year?
Neither Pozuelo or Higuain return and Miami continuing upon their improvement into 2023, or just maintaining last year’s level, is dependent on their replacements having bounce back seasons. Rodolfo Pizarro, once victim to Miami’s budget slashing, returns from a one-year exile in Liga MX to take over Pozuelo’s role. He’ll have to play more like he did in 2020, when he was quite good, instead of how he did in 2021, when he was quite bad, in order to provide the value Pozuelo did at the attacking midfield position.
There are signs from his last 12 months of play that indicate Pizarro may make good on Miami’s bet. After his creation and progression metrics cratered for Miami in 2021, his 2022 Liga MX numbers resemble, if not better, his statistical profile from his first stretch with Monterrey prior to his move to MLS. Turns out Pizarro just needed to get away from Gonzalo Higuain, who he not so subtly disliked.
Lo and behold, he won’t have to worry about returning to a toxic workplace because Higuain is gone too. The departure of the Argentine veteran grabbed headlines but the signing of his replacement, Josef Martinez, is arguably more notable. Once synonymous with Atlanta United, Martinez flipped a table of chicken out of his way to a contract buyout that allowed Miami to sign him without using the DP slot he allocated to him at Atlanta. Neville has been enthusiastic about the move, claiming Martinez his “personal number one target”, but it’s hard to say how good of a player he’ll actually be getting.
Don’t get me wrong, Martinez isn’t bad, he finished within the top-25 of NPxG+xA per 96 last season. But he’s far from the supernova he’s often remembered as after his knees have been repeatedly put through a paper shredder since 2020. Like Pizarro, Martinez is 29-years-old and you are welcome to live on the edge and talk yourself into that age being squarely within the back half of a prime. Miami have reached that conclusion and are depending on Martinez getting back to his best self as his injuries move farther into the rear view.
Martinez is going to play if fit, then begging the question of how well he fits alongside incumbent striker Campana. Miami made the Ecuadorian’s loan move permanent this offseason and he has much more of a claim to a spot in the first eleven than even a healthy Martinez. Campana was Miami’s best player last season, leading the team in g+ above average and non-penalty expected goal contributions per 96 (minimum 1000 minutes).
Despite having two quality options last season, Neville rarely played in two striker sets. Expect that to change in 2023, even if neither Martinez or Campana are maximized in those formations. Both players have more experience and also produce more efficiently when playing as the lone man up top, but their chemistry will be a big factor on how Miami’s offense shakes out.
But Can They Play Defense?
Those two high profile moves in the attack have drawn the most attention, but Phil Neville otherwise brings back a roster with a ton of continuity. 85.1% of last season’s minutes return and that familiarity better improve a defense that finished in the bottom ten of MLS in NPxG allowed. Few teams, if any, were more Swiss cheese-y than Miami, conceding the most progressive passes in MLS. The defense ranked in the bottom three in opponent penalty box touches allowed and opponent goals added in Zone 14, the highly valuable area just outside the center of the box. That forced sporting director Chris Henderson to use some of his limited resources available to shore up the defense.
The defender position groups scored poorly in relation to the league in cumulative goals added and Serhiy Kryvtsov is burdened with improving that standing. The new center back spent the last 13 seasons at Ukrainian powerhouse Shaktar Donetsk and Miami brought him in as an upgrade on the outgoing Damien Lowe. Shaktar never relied upon Kryvtsov to be an iron man, only started 20+ games twice in his tenure, but Miami will do just that. They need an anchor at the back and more capable distribution going forward. His 2.76 progressive passes per 90 across his last three seasons of European competition doesn’t jump off the page, but it beats the progression numbers of any of the incumbent center backs.
Expectations on Kryvtsov will over-inflate based on the well-he’s-been-good-enough-to-play-in-Champions-League logic, but he’s Miami’s best bet to provide the significant boost that vaults them off the playoff bubble. When the rest is considered in totality, Miami’s 2023 roster doesn’t feel all that different from the 2022 version. Martinez and Pizarro have vibes of a like-for-like change from Higuain and Pozuelo. A winger group that was one of the most productive units in MLS last year lost two blossoming players in Emerson Rodriguez and Indiana Vassilev only to be replaced by the intriguing pair of Corentin Jean and Nicolas Stefanelli.
Miami’s median outcome ultimately looks how last season played out – as a team hovering around the last few playoff spots. That expectation is even more stable with the recently expanded playoff format and holding court would be a moral victory for Henderson and Neville. Even if 2023 is a reboot of 2022, it navigates them through the sanctions and puts them in a position to build without limitation with a sense of competency that’s desperately needed. Just be prepared to throw all that credit out the window in case they relapse and break every single roster rule in the book to sign Lionel Messi to a TAM deal this summer.
Orlando City SC: Galesse Is More
By Kevin Nelson
How you view Orlando City’s 2022 season is almost entirely dependent on how much you care about the US Open Cup. If you’re a believer - then woo! The club got their first ever trophy! If you’re a hater - then womp womp. They squeaked into the playoffs by the hair on their chinny-chin-chin and got bounced in the first round. Despite winning a trophy, Orlando were the exact type of team MLS wants more of in its playoffs – slightly below average. They ranked in the bottom third of the league in both non-penalty expected goal (NPxG) differential and goals added (g+) differential, pushing general manager Luiz Muzzi and head coach Oscar Pareja to continue an almost-complete roster rehaul that started after the 2021 season.
The final touches in that effort are now complete, with Mauricio Pereyra being the lone regular from the midfield or attack remaining from the 2021 team. The spine of the defense has been maintained though, with the center back trio of Robin Janssen, Antonio Carlos, and Rodrigo Schegel back again to patrol in front of Pedro Gallese.
Each of the CBs played more than 1,800 minutes in 2022 and the ability to rotate two of three reliable options within Pareja’s preferred four-man backline made the central defense Orlando’s calling card in 2022. It was the only position group to rate as above average by g+, with Janssen providing the majority of its value. They also anchored a competent defense that ranked 14th in non-penalty expected goals allowed and within the top ten in g+ allowed in the final third.
Pareja’s trust in his center backs to hold it down allowed him to advance the fullbacks upfield in possession. Orlando had the 9th-most attacking third touches by fullbacks in 2022 but the departures of Ruan and Joao Moutinho leave that group with turnover as well. Kyle Smith is back for his fifth year with the team and is probably the starter at right back even if he’s best suited to a bench role. He lacks Ruan’s pace and Orlando will have to adjust without a burner constantly zooming up and down the right.
Lucas Petrasso joins from Toronto to be the main man at left back though don’t be so sure that he should be. He was the 3rd-worst fullback in both passing g+ and completed passes above average, or in his case, below average. Orlando added Rafael Santos to compete with Petrasso on the left but it’s hard to set expectations on him after spending the majority of his career in Brazil’s second tier.
Stack The Attack
The change in fullbacks better not negatively impact the attack, because Orlando already had a hard enough time creating chances last season when they ranked 25th in NPxG. That was their second consecutive year finishing in bottom fourth of MLS on offense but there’s hope that year two of the aforementioned roster churn within the attack will breed a continuity that pushes a bad attack into a good one. The first wave of that churn is back in designated players Facundo Torres and Ercan Kara, with the former impressing in his first season in MLS with nine goals and eight assists. Ivan Angulo, a Palmeiras loanee, also returns for his first preseason with Orlando after joining in the summer. Muzzi and Pareja have brought more reinforcements as well in case friendship isn’t the only magic sauce needed to fix this attack.
Orlando has once again invested in the SuperDraft, sacrificing Ruan for the right to select Shak Mohammed with the second draft pick. They then doubled down, using the sixth pick on Duncan McGuire and all this after taking Jack Lynn in the first round last year. The draft is hardly a reliable place to find talent but if any team has shown a habit of doing so with attackers, it’s Orlando after hitting on Cyle Larin and Daryl Dike.
But the real excitement comes from Orlando’s Argentinean raid this offseason. Two U22 initiative signings from Argentina, Gaston Gonzalez and Ramiro Enrique, will feature heavily. Martin Ojeda fills the last designated player slot for ~$5 million and every expectation is that he will be the ying to Torres’ yang. Ojeda has 30 goal contributions across his last two seasons for Godoy Cruz in Argentina and while predominantly a left-sided player, was equally productive on either wing.
Puppeteer Pereyra
With the exception of Kara, in fact, the majority of Orlando’s reformed attack is capable anywhere across the frontline. And therein lies the pie-in-the-sky vision for what this attack can be – a structureless group of flexible pieces constantly interchanging and confusing defenses while Pereyra pulls the strings from deeper. Pereyra is one of the best players to be the central link for that type of attack, few players are as good at finding space and finding teammates in space, just look at these bar graphs from StatsBomb below. He was 9th in passing g+ per 96 and 4th in vertical distance per pass within his position group in 2022. His passing merits even stand out over the last decade, having two of the best ten passing g+ per 96 and completed passes over expected seasons among attacking midfielders in the ten years.
LEFT - Ball Receipts in Space, RIGHT - Line-breaking Passes to Ball Receipts in Space
Via StatsBomb
There are a lot of moving pieces that Pareja is going to have to mold into the right combinations, but Orlando enters 2023 with a boatload of talent. The fullbacks remain a question mark but they have added in the attack where it was most needed and bolstered depth with a CONCACAF Champions League on their horizon. Even if Champions League saps some of their early season MLS energy, Orlando is a safe bet to make the playoffs for the fourth straight season and they’ll actually be more of a threat when they get there this time.