2023 Season Previews: FC Cincinnati, New York City FC, Philadelphia Union
/We’re rolling out 2023 MLS Season previews ahead of the regular season that kicks off on Saturday, February 25. You can find all of them here!
FC Cincinnati: the Skyline is the limit
by Nate Gilman
What a difference a year makes. Coming into 2022, if you were in charge of an MLS expansion franchise and faced with a team-building question, a sound strategy could’ve been asking yourself, “What did FC Cincinnati do?” and then doing the opposite. But all that has changed since the arrival of General Manager Chris Albright and manager Pat Noonan. Clearly, 2022 was a different year in Cincinnati.
Sure, Albright made some important additions, big and small, up and down the roster, but Noonan took a core of players coming off a Wooden Spoon in 2021 and set them up in a way to maximize strengths and minimize weaknesses. The result was one of the most exciting offenses in the league and a team that notched the club’s first MLS playoff win and only bowed out of the playoffs in a closely contested game on the road against the number-one seeded Philadelphia Union.
A potent attack
FCC’s front three, Brenner, Brandon Vazquez, and Luciano Acosta, represent different aspects of the Orange and Blue’s changing fortunes. In 2022, they combined for 46 goals and 26 assists and largely pushed the team to its first-ever MLS playoffs.
Let’s start with Acosta, who returned to MLS before the 2021 season after a stint in Liga MX with Atlas. Acosta was already a known quantity in the league and was often the Orange and Blue’s only bright spot in 2021. However, a new system and a better roster unlocked Lucho.
Simply, he’s at the center of everything FCC do going forward. Whether it’s delivering the final ball to teammates in scoring positions (a league leading 11.35 xA) or dropping deeper when necessary to aid in ball progression, Acosta is the engine that makes FCC go. In a league still dominated by No. 10s, Acosta has ascended to being a legitimate MVP candidate.
Next up is Brenner, who went from being one of the worst strikers in MLS in 2021 according to g+ to one of the most dangerous. Brenner scored some goals in his debut season but he struggled for large portions of the season and many were ready to write him off as a bust.
2022 didn’t start off much better with Brenner missing time due to injury, visa issues, and other circumstances. Even though he didn’t score his first goal until June 24, Brenner ended the season with 18 on 0.55 xG/96.
Heading into 2023, the biggest question regarding Brenner is how long he’ll be in the league, not because he’ll have flamed out but because a top-five league has come calling. He was linked to Serie A and the English Premier League in January but he’ll be back in Orange and Blue at least until the summer window.
Last, is the curious case of Brandon Vazquez. Technically on his third MLS team, Vazquez consistently put up solid advanced numbers in limited minutes. But those limited minutes didn’t become anything other than limited until the end of 2021 in Cincinnati. While FCC lost ten games in a row to close out that season, Vazquez scored three goals in five starts. Unlike previous years, Vazquez was in the starting lineup from matchday one in 2022 and he showed no signs of slowing up. He finished the season with 18 goals with 0.50 xG/96 and a goal on his full debut for the U.S. men’s national team in January.
In 2022, Noonan crafted a system that elevated an already good player to a near-MVP level, rehabilitated a player who arrived for a record transfer fee from a bust to a near Golden Boot winner, and transformed someone who had flashed off the bench in the past into another near Golden Boot winner and USMNT player. Those players were all around in 2021 but putting them in positions to thrive made FCC’s offense one of the most potent in MLS.
An improving defense
As much fun as FCC’s attack was in 2022, the defense struggled. That was an entertaining combination for neutrals but it didn’t bode well for consistently winning games. Enter Matt Miazga. The center back arrived at the end of the summer transfer window and the Orange and Blue defense improved and stabilized.
It’s a relatively small sample size, sure, but Miazga, even as just an above average center back according to g+, was a massive upgrade relative to who had gotten those minutes previously.
Paul Harvey’s G+/G- Radar
If second-year center back Ian Murphy (0.01 g+/96) can also take a step forward, Nick Hagglund (0.02 g+/96) FCC’s backline will be in a much better place than it’s ever been in 2023.
With an attack primed to be one of the best in the league, a slightly above average backline might be enough to put Cincinnati in a position that was unthinkable this time last year: contenders.
New York City FC: Building in the Bronx
By Paul Harvey
On June 10, 2022 NYCFC was flying high. Their xGD was the highest in the league, their points per game was second in the league, and their xGF was the third highest ever recorded in the league and the highest since COVID. Their team was at the pinnacle, playing beautiful soccer with league leaders at every position.
Then, suddenly, it all fell apart. The departure of league-leading striker Taty Castellanos, MLS-leading head coach Ronny Deila, and a series of key injuries left the team reeling. While interim manager Nick Cushing patched the problems and helped the team finish third in the Eastern conference, a disappointing end to the playoffs after a 1-0 lead on the road then led to what might be the most destructive offseason in team history.
Where’d everyone go?
The above gif shows how much NYCFC has lost - and that’s assuming Santiago Rodriguez comes back, which at this point seems likely but is not certain. It is a shocking deconstruction of a championship roster, with the summer departure of Taty Castellanos (the one-time best striker in MLS), the expected postseason departure of Anton Tinnerholm (the one-time best fullback in MLS), and the much less expected departures of Alex Callens (the one-time best center back in MLS) and Maxi Moralez (you get the idea). Also, Sean Johnson went to Toronto, young talent Cacha Acevedo left on loan to Bahia, and Santi Rodriguez returned to Montevideo City Torque after his loan ended.
The numerous losses were bleak at the time, but in general the response around the league has been an overreaction. Understandably many want to see NYCFC stumble; after all, since 2020 the team has been first in G+ differential per game, and 2nd in xG difference per game, all while having just the 10th highest salary in both average and aggregate over the same time frame. To expect one of the best run teams in MLS to shrivel and die over turnover at the top end is unrealistic. Here’s what they have coming back:
NYCFC has more than enough talent that has been developed for just this moment. Along with some exceptionally talented young players, they have a core of established veterans who are among the best in their positions. The most obvious of these is Keaton Parks. For those who haven’t been paying attention, Parks is the best American midfielder by career G+ of all time, and the on/off split for him in xG last season was a whopping +0.92 xG per 90 minutes played. When Parks is on the field and healthy, NYCFC is almost untouchable. Bringing him back instantly bumps the floor of NYCFC. (Don’t worry about the interrupting, interrupting is for losers.)
Talles the Great
While the supporting cast is strong, the new star of this team is Talles Magno. The talented Brazilian 20 year old is the kind of player that MLS had no business signing. A untimely knee injury, a relegation caused financial crisis for Vasco de Gama, and a delayed season due to COVID resulted in a curious situation. Talles needed to be sold, but the market was nonexistent for a 12 million dollar injured wonderkid. NYCFC jumped at the opportunity and made him their most expensive signing of all time.
Playing on the left wing partnered with Taty Castellanos, Magno was a revelation. His ability to receive near the touchline under pressure, beat that pressure, and open up the game for NYCFC was unmatched. While on the left wing in 2022, he took 1.8 shots per game over 21 games for three goals on 4.97 xG. His G+ was among the best on the team, particularly in dribbling. His ability to glide past two or three defenders made him impossible to cover and opened up the entire game for the team.
With Taty’s departure, Magno shifted in to take over the lone striker position. While the whole team was reeling with the departure of a head coach and talisman striker, Magno suffered the most of all in his on field play. His G+ splits from before and after Taty’s final game are remarkable, and in particular it’s notable that Talles essentially stopped creating value on the dribble. While overall, Talles remained one of the best attacking players in MLS - his raw G+ for last season was 9th overall - he did not perform as well when he became the focal point of the team.
The biggest news of the offseason has been that Magno is going to continue as the striker. After such a struggle in the second half of the season, there will need to be a fundamental change to how the season is approached. More than anything else, where is the production going to come from? Open play xG and G+ for other attacking players dropped significantly when Talles took over from Taty.
What’s the backup plan if the Talles Magno striker experiment doesn’t work? The only backups on the roster are players with no real pro experience. If Talles or the wingers on either side can’t provide goals, the season could take a turn for the worse quickly. The only consolation is that at the current moment, the team is sitting on an open DP spot and an open U22 initiative spot as well. If changes need to be made, they have to happen before the window closes.
Set Pieces
While NYCFC has at times had issues with open play efficiency, no matter what the team has been able to rely on set pieces to make up the gap both offensively and defensively. Since the start of the 2021 season, NYCFC is fourth in xGD per game and first overall in xGA per game via set pieces. Their overall shot differential is +1.16 per game, which leads MLS over that time frame. The ability to consistently create set piece chances adds up over the course of the season, which in turn leads to points.
Efficiency on set pieces could be the difference between competing for championships and being a contender, so being able to replace the production of Castellanos and Callens in that sphere is going to be important. This is an area where players like Parks have had success in the past, and Magno continues to be a good target in the box. If NYCFC wants to be successful, they will need to be around the top of the charts for set piece offense and defense.
Sean’s Gone
The biggest uncertainty facing NYCFC is at the goalkeeper position. While Sean Johnson was a leader and longstanding servant of the club, against xGOT he basically performed exactly at the average over his career. His shot stopping was slightly below average according to G+ in 2022, and his passing was below average as well. Unfortunately for Johnson and the team, it’s not reasonable to give a large contract to a 33 year old who is not performing above the league average at the position.
In his place, either Luis Barraza or new acquisition Matt Freese will be the starting goalkeeper. Both have performed better than the average goalkeeper in lower leagues, but will need to make a step up for the first team. Barraza is more accomplished as a distributor, but on the numbers Freese is a better shot stopper.
Goalkeeper is a position that can absolutely make or break a team. LAFC in 2021 and Atlanta in 2022 are the most recent casualties. Johnson’s reliably high floor meant that the team was never hurt by goalkeeping. If neither Barraza or Freese can perform at an MLS level, then NYCFC could seriously underperform their points and fall behind the rest of the league. It’s a crucial position and there’s no real clarity on how it will turn out.
Silverware or Bust
The expectations for NYCFC have always been high, and despite the turmoil this year is no exception. Although the team is young and relatively inexperienced together, the amount of investment and general quality should be enough to seriously contend for a variety of trophies. If the season is not trending in the right direction by the end of May, the toughest month on the schedule, then big changes are likely to be made in the transfer market. With a new stadium on the way, NYCFC needs to make every game count to attract the attention of their market. Don’t expect too much patience for a team that is out of the playoff race come the summer.
Philadelphia Union: Uhrelready know what this teams about
By Jared Young
Money. Power. Inches. Seconds. All ingredients of great sports moments made by great teams. Let’s relive one.
Six-foot one-inch all-world winger Gareth Bale, a $1.6 million dollar rental for LAFC, rose up over six-foot four-inch center back Jack Elliott, a one-time fourth round draft pick from West Virginia University.
It was the 128th minute of the 2022 MLS Cup. Diego Palacios had launched a gorgeous ball into the middle of the box. Jack Elliott rose to clear it, but Bale rose those important inches higher. His momentum, power and head launched the ball past Andre Blake’s outstretched glove.
Had the ball been inches lower, Elliott gets his head to it. Inches higher, it’s out of Bale’s reach. But the ball was perfect. LAFC notted the remarkable game at 3-3. It wasn’t the end of the match, but it was the back breaking moment for the Philadelphia Union and their brilliant 2022 season. If they had held on for 60 more seconds, they would have held the Cup.
Leading up to that moment, the Union had been slowly stacking the building blocks of a winner, and 2022 was when they finally broke through. The Union have never been big spenders. Their wages were second lowest in the league last year. They’ve mined the less popular international leagues for key talent. And wow has Sporting Director Ernst Tanner delivered. Consider some of their most critical players and the leagues they were signed from:
Jakob Glesnes – Norway
Kai Wagner – Germany, 3rd division
Daniel Gazdag – Hungary
Michael Uhre – Denmark
Olivier Mbaizo – Cameroon
Leon Flach – Germany, 2nd division
Jose Martinez – Venezuela
All of those leagues rank below Major League Soccer at 15th in the world.
And then there’s the Union Academy, part of the long term strategy since its launch in 2013. The Academy has started producing European quality talent. Brendan Aaronson, his brother Paxten, and Mark McKenzie all ply their trades overseas after lacing up their boots in Wayne and Chester, PA.
And last year, 19 year old Academy product Jack McGlynn, showed the potential of a future midfield star, pushing Jim Curtin to consider shuffling the starting lineup of a team that was already in peak form.
The Aaronsons and McKenzie might not be on the team, but their transfer fees most certainly are.
These building blocks delivered in 2022. The Union defense achieved the 2nd best goals against average in league history. Their goal difference of +46, was also second best ever. Their 67 points ranked seventh all time, and they did this with guaranteed wages of $12.2M in a year when 19 teams spent $15 million or more.
Any preview of the 2023 season, however, needs to acknowledge that moment of Gareth Bale’s greatness over the Union’s lack thereof. The Union were inches and seconds from publishing their discourse on how to build a winner from the playgrounds of southeastern Pennsylvania and the world’s afterthought leagues. But even at 32, the world class Bale forced the Union to start a blank page and keep writing. This story remains incomplete.
So how did Ernst Tanner and Jim Curtin approach this offseason? The short answer is they added depth. The Union return their entire starting lineup from 2022. That in and of itself is remarkable given their success, but depth was an issue last year. With CONCACAF Champions League games, the US Open Cup and a new summer league with Liga MX, depth is an even bigger need in 2023.
The Union lost three key depth pieces in the offseason. Backup forward Cory Burke departed for the Red Bulls. His energy and seven goals will definitely be missed. Also gone is attacking midfielder Paxten Aaronson and backup goalkeeper Matt Freese. Stuart Findlay also said farewell late last season, leaving center back depth an issue.
On the heels of the successful acquisition of Julian Carranza from Inter Miami, Tanner looked inside the league to acquire the latest round of talent. The Union welcome in three key pieces, which should effectively upgrade their bench. They acquired Andres Perea from Orlando City, Damion Lowe from Inter Miami, and Joaquin Torres from Montreal FC.
Damion Lowe is a veteran center back that gives Curtin the breathing room that he hasn’t had in recent seasons. The coach should feel more confident in rotating either Elliott or Glesnes with Lowe in tow. That center back pairing has logged an astounding 11,950 minutes over the past two seasons, largely out of necessity. The Union have been fortunate to avoid injuries, but Lowe will certainly allow a comfortable rotation.
Joaquin Torres isn’t a direct Cory Burke replacement, but he adds a new dynamic to the trio of offensive players at the top of Curtin’s 4-4-2 diamond. He’s more of a creator and might help building a bridge between the midfield and the forwards. He can even rotate into the center midfield and offer a more offensive minded force late in games.
The most intriguing signing is Perea, a $750K GAM acquisition in the defensive midfield. While the Union’s outstanding defense starts with Jose Martinez’s exceptional positioning and ball winning ability, he’s also prone to poor decision making and turnovers. According to FBREF.com, Martinez is in the 88th percentile in successful take-ons and 87th percentile in interceptions compared to other defensive midfielders. However, his pass completion percentage of 78.7% ranked last among defensive midfielders with at least 1,000 minutes. That was solidly below his expected pass completion of 80.5%.
The Union’s starting central midfield of Leon Flach and Alejandro Bedoya, are a defensive minded duo as well, and Perea should also be able to fit in capably into one of those shuttling positions. Combined with Jack McGlynn the bottom three midfield positions in the diamond now goes five deep.
Perea’s price tag indicates he will play a major role. The season long question will be, does he succeed in replacing Martinez as the starting defensive midfielder? If he provides more security going forward, while maintaining the strong defensive record, look for Curtin to make a midseason switch.
A Union season preview wouldn’t be complete without admiring the big three up top. Daniel Gazdag, Michael Uhre and Michael Carranza collected the second highest goals and assists total for a trio in the league (63), behind Cincinnati’s trio of Vazquez, Brenner and Acosta (71).
Given the defensive mentality of the central midfield, the trio usually performed on an island in the final third. Their best support came from their dynamic pair of full backs Kai Wagner and Olivier Mbaizo, that impress offensively while holding things down on the defensive end.
With Burke gone, backup minutes will likely be extended to a pair of Academy players. Both Quinn Sullivan and Chris Donovan played minutes last season, but will now be counted on to deliver on a more consistent basis alongside Joaquin Torres.
Having addressed a minor depth issue, the Union show no obvious weaknesses. They can roll out an all-time great defense. They are potent on offense. And maybe more importantly, they should be very hungry to erase the bitter taste of the last few seconds of last year.
If the Union can manage the good bounces it takes to return to the MLS Cup, this organization of humble means and long term planning, will have another chance to have those inches and seconds land on their side.