2023 Season Previews: New York Red Bulls, Columbus Crew, Colorado Rapids
/We’re rolling out 2023 MLS Season previews ahead of the regular season that kicks off on Saturday, February 25 (TOMORROW!). You can find all of them here!
New York Red Bulls: Red Bull Gives You Wins
Since the more than two million dollar signing of coach Gerhard Struber in October 2020, RB Global has continued to spend on the squad after a long fallow period. This off-season is no different with the club record signing of striker Dante Vanzeir. Struber has overseen a dramatic overhaul of the squad, and RBNY improved dramatically in his first season, posting a 10.37 xGD, which was good for fifth in the league (compared to fifth worst in 2020), while the team underperformed overall, gaining only 13th most points with 48 (the 2020 team averaged 1.38 ppg which was close to the 2021 team ppg of 1.41).
Last season saw a slight decline on some of those metrics, with an xGD differential of 9.61, which was sixth in the league overall, and a points total of 53 (also sixth in the league). But unlike the injury-ravaged 2021 season, the 2022 season should be considered a disappointment after a second off-season of roster improvement with several key signings, including key attackers Luquinhas, Lewis Morgan, Ashley Fletcher, and Caden Clark. Yes there was turnover, but Struber was never able to pull the squad together into a cohesive whole, and when the team did not execute as planned, Struber bunkered and deployed a one-dimensional long ball strategy. Recently departed Patryk Klimala, who was not able to find his game in two seasons, summed up the nature of the 2022 team pretty succinctly:
This was a microcosm of many of the issues with the team in year two of the Struber era, where the focus was really on different press variations, and extremely quick vertical long balls. The problem was that the striker often operated isolated from his teammates and rarely combined (see a sample passing graph from a match against Montreal). The gaps between the usually compact midfield and defense and the lone striker were massive.
Obviously, a team playing Energy Drink Soccer presses, and the team once again pressed with abandon. The team was for the most part ranked first in nearly every single defensive metric and reflected an organization completely engrossed with pressing triggers and trapping opponents. Yet the point of this strategy is to be able to generate opportunities and chances, the offense once again, despite heavy off-season investment, generated about the same amount of xGF in 2022 as 2021, but converted more chances as it ended up with 48 goals (39 goals in 2021). A large part of this has to do with relying on hero ball and golazos, primarily from Lewis Morgan, but also Luquinhas. And despite the effort to work on corner kicks and some early season success, the team was not creating much from set pieces either.
Roster Composition and Off-season Acquisitions
The most prominent departures include former captain Aaron Long (fifth captain to leave the club in recent times), the aforementioned struggling striker Patryk Klimala, loanee Ashley Fletcher, and teen phenom Caden Clark. The turnover in 2022 is much less than in 2021, with RBNY managing to keep most of a strong squad on the books. The off-season focus was geared by revamping the forward corps where the club added both quality and depth. Aside from the Vanzeir, other additions include permanently signing Struber favorite Elias Manoel, and picking up Corey Burke from Philadelphia.
Target Strikers – Elias Manoel (ST/SS); Corey Burke; and Tom Barlow
In the pre-season so far, Struber most often lined up the squad with two forwards in a “big/little” set up. Theoretically that means one of Manoel or Burke will lead the line. Struber really enjoyed the game of Manoel, so he likely will get first crack (Manoel also fits into the Supporting Striker function). But Burke is a very interesting and polished signing who could slot in effectively. Press machine Tom Barlow fills out this group, and hopefully the two forward set-up allows him to play within his game.
Supporting Strikers – Dante Vanzeir (SS); Omir Fernandez; and Serge Ngoma.
In the two-striker set-up, you will likely see a player with a very free role as a supporting striker. Omir Fernandez saw a lot of time last year in a similar role, but he may also be deployed in an attacking midfield role. The same is true for the quicksilver Ngoma.
Wildcard – Of course striker Dante Vanzeir is the big addition this off-season, and this article would be a good place to get a grasp of his game. As Eric Friedlander notes, Vanzeir’s game is operating very efficiently in the box with strong runs, which has not been common for this team the last years as the striker often operated in an isolated fashion and not often combining with teammates. Vanzeir’s playing style could hint to a change in tactics and squad direction. Struber seems to be hinting at a tactical change as well, “We realize we need to create better chances, create our setup in the opponent’s box, and also, that we have in the right areas, many more crossed balls, many more one-on-one moments, many more overload moments to create the chances, in the end, on a higher level”
Attacking Midfielders – Luquinhas (LAM); Lewis Morgan (RAM); Cameron Harper; and Wikelman Carmona.
One of the big questions this season is how Struber incorporates the unique playing styles of Luquinhas and Lewis Morgan into a 4/2/2/2 deployment. Both players proved to have superior skillsets, but often exhibited that talent individually, rather than part of a more cohesive hole. Both at various points last year were in Struber’s doghouse as well due to their inability to execute on the defensive scheme. Another player who may play in a wider position as a “super sub” role is Cameron Harper, who looked very good last year.
Deep-lying midfielders – Dan Edelman (6); Christian Caseres Jr (8); Frankie Amaya; Dru Yearwood; and Peter Stroud.
Struber struck gold to close the season with the deep lying midfield pairing of Edelman and Caseres. With the fullbacks pushing higher up the field, we likely will see a more dedicated “6” shielding the CBs. Stroud is a big addition to the squad with a polished game and a bit of an edge. But the midfield is crowded, so he will be fighting for minutes.
Midfield Wildcard: The midfield is the deepest and strongest part of the squad, and it will be a challenge for Struber to rotate all these players. It is also expected for key contributors like Edelman to miss some time with youth national team duty.
Fullbacks/Wingbacks – Kyle Duncan (RB); John Tolkin (LB); Dylan Nealis; Curtis Ofori; and Jayden Reid.
Kyle Duncan returns this season after he struggled last year, to the point that he didn’t start in a home playoff game against Cincinnati. John Tolkin had a breakout season and was a mainstay in defense, leading the team in tackles and challenges. The team has depth with Dylan Nealis, Curtis Ofori, and Jayden Reid. But if Ofori and Reid cannot cover for Tolkin, the team may seek coverage here. The fullbacks are expected to push higher up this year, so expect more on the offensive side from Tolkin and Duncan.
Centerbacks – Andres Reyes (RCB); Sean Nealis (LCB); Matt Nocita; and Hassan Ndam.
The loss of Aaron Long will be difficult to overcome, but the CB pairing of Sean Nealis and Andres Reyes should be a formidable duo. Reyes missed most of last year with injury, and his ability to cover space and emergency defend will be critical for the team as it will assume a more offensive disposition.
RBNY does have a strong track record with developing unheralded center backs, and so far this pre-season, reports are that Matt Nocita has shown well. His development would be key to assuage concerns for a very thin group.
Goaltenders – Carlos Coronel; Ryan Meara.
Coronel had a slightly less steady 2022 season after a spectacular 2021 season. If he’s able to recover his 2021 form, it will help the team be more aggressive offensively.
Tactics and outlook
Present depth chart with a fully healthy roster in the 4-2-2-2 formation
Like in 2021, Struber will be leading a very good squad. But the head coach appears to be more comfortable with his squad this year due to the continuity and lack of turnover. Is this finally the year where RBNY finally deploys the 4-2-2-2? Will the $2m manager finally make all these pieces click? The team so far this pre-season has focused on getting the fullbacks higher up the field and having more numbers closer to goal. There have also been reports of more complex attacking strategies and circulation in the offensive third, which is a welcome change in tactics.
In the past two seasons, the team had the fifth and sixth best overall records. There is no reason why the 2022 squad should not top those efforts and be at least a top three team with a strong Open Cup run.
Columbus Crew: Nancy meeting you here
After winning it all in 2020, the Crew failed to make the playoffs for two consecutive seasons resulting in the firing of head coach Caleb Porter. Columbus then went out and poached Wilfried Nancy from Montréal, traded or let go of four starters, and yet were rather quiet on the incoming front. The hope is that an underachieving squad will be reborn under Nancy and a full year of club record signing Cucho Hernandez will lead to a massive improvement in 2023.
2022 in Review
2022 was another frustrating season for the black and gold. While the Crew gave up the third fewest goals in the league (41), had the second fewest losses (8), and spent the second least time in losing game states, they too often snatched defeats or draws from the jaws of victory by coughing up 17 (41%) of their goals in the final fifteen minutes of games leading the league in draws (16). In the end, the Crew fell two points short of the final playoff position even though they exceeded their expected goal differential by 10 goals, costing Caleb Porter his job.
On the plus side, midseason signing Cucho Hernandez almost single-handedly dragged the Crew to the playoffs, scoring eight goals in as many games to start his time in Columbus. Also, the Crew 2 Capybaras absolutely destroyed MLS Next Pro en route to capturing the title in the league’s first season behind Golden Boot winner Jacen Russell-Rowe who signed a first team contract midseason.
Offseason Roster Changes
Returning 66% of minutes played from last season, the Crew saw the largest squad turnover since prior to the 2020 season. Three of the top four players by g+ per 96’ are gone, starting left back Pedro Santos and starting left winger Derrick Etienne Jr. left in free agency, while captain center back Jonathan Mensah was traded to San Jose. Central midfielders Artur was traded to Houston and James Igbekeme returned back to Real Zaragoza after a largely unsuccessful loan.
Despite missing one third of the minutes played from last year, the Crew didn’t add many new players. Jimmy Medranda was signed as a free agent to presumably be the new left (wing) back and [insert name of center back here] was brought in to replace Mensah. The Crew added depth bringing forwards Christian Ramirez back to MLS from Aberdeen and signing 2023 draft pick Max Arfsten as well as at center back by homegrown signing Keegan Hughes from Stanford as well as promoting 2022 first round draft pick Philip Quinton from Crew 2.
One Big Question: Can Wilfried Nancy translate his success in Montréal to Columbus?
Tim Bezbatchenko is betting that, despite evidence to the contrary, managers matter. Prior to the 2021 season having just taken over after a sudden departure of Thierry Henry, Nancy’s Club de Foot Montréal were expected to finish dead last in the Eastern Conference but they defied expectations and missed out on the playoffs by two points. Prior to 2022, they were predicted to be a borderline playoff team by most pundits, yet again exceeded expectations and missed out on the Supporter’s Shield by two points. In contrast, Columbus was predicted to be perhaps one of the best teams in MLS history going into 2021 under Caleb Porter and failed to make the playoffs two years in a row. And it wasn’t just luck, Montréal was among the top teams by xGD over the course of the season and played champagne Québécois sparkling wine football.
Importantly, Nancy did this without expensive external signings (although they did splash the GAM for Mihailović and Johnston), largely developing from within. This is in stark contrast to the environment fostered by Caleb Porter, with younger players expressing their new freedom in recent interviews. Mo Farsi commented to the Canadian outlet RDS, “with young people, he was uncompromising. You made a mistake, you were beaten up… He trusted the veterans much more and not the youngsters.” and homegrown Sean Zadawdzki speaking about Nancy to the Columbus Dispatch, "He wants you to take more risks going forward. He wants you to make mistakes. He’s really emphasized that. Don’t be afraid to make mistakes. In the past, you were scared to do too much because then you would have some negative repercussions coming your way. It’s just kind of refreshing to have someone who wants you — who encourages you to make mistakes."
This is promising news for a team that has been among the oldest in MLS over the last few seasons and had seemed to stagnate under Porter. With a solid core and some high priced stars in Cucho Hernandez and Lucas Zelarayan, the hope is that Nancy can bring out the best of young players like Farsi, Aidan Morris, Jacen Russel-Rowe, Luis Diaz, Sean Zawadzkii, and Alex Matan and return the Crew to glory (or at least the playoffs).
2023 Prognosis
As with seemingly all of MLS clubs, preseason has largely been shrouded in mystery. It’s a safe bet that the Crew are going to move on from the 4-2-3-1 formation that they have played since Gregg Berhalter arrived in 2014. It’s assumed that Nancy will choose to play some flavor of three center backs, with unconfirmed reports of a 3-4-2-1 deployed in preseason friendlies. With only four natural center backs on the roster as of publication, and two of them being rookies, the season may hinge on how the backline is able to adjust. Presumably the Crew will be signing a veteran to replace Mensah, and perhaps we will see Stephan Moreira slide over from right back into a more central position.
While it’s unlikely the Crew will be competing for the top of the Conference, it is easy to see them placing anywhere from third to tenth. Given the new playoff structure, if the Crew were to not make the postseason for a third straight season, hard questions would have to be asked about GM Tim Bezbatchenko. If they make the playoffs the team can be a bit of a wild card, Lucas Zelarayan has single handedly won a Championship before, and with Cucho as a partner, it’s not impossible that the Crew could bring a third MLS Cup back to Columbus.
Colorado Rapids: If you doubt this team, you Beita-be-shour about it
By Ben Bellman
I’m Not Reading All That
Last season’s 10th place finish in the Western Conference was a major disappointment after Colorado earned first place and the Thanksgiving playoff spotlight in 2021. But! Colorado remains a good team. The 2021 Rapids overperformed their underlying numbers, while the 2022 Rapids underperformed them. ASA models say the Rapids have been a playoff-quality team ever since the current USMNT manager was fired on May 1st, 2019. With a crop of new signings that could reshape the team’s spine in the coming years, success means making the playoffs for the third time in four seasons.
And, please, stop saying that Diego Rubio is a 10.
Some Perspective on 2021 and 2022
Go read Joseph Samelson’s and Matt Pollard’s writing over at the Burgundy Wave to get caught up on the 2022 season, the players signed in the offseason, and more (and be sure to support whatever form that project takes next). There’s no point in trying to emulate the detail they provide there. Instead, let’s zoom out a little at the past two seasons from a numbers perspective, understanding that the fan experience in 2019 and 2020 amounts to “turbulent, fun, oh and the whole damn roster got COVID for five weeks that one time and then lost in the playoffs.”
ASA calculates “expected points” by simulating matches based on the shots taken using our xG model, then multiplying the likelihood of a win by three points, adding the likelihood of a draw (one point), and summing up all those results for the season. It’s an elegant way to snapshot the quality of teams’ play based on the real goal opportunities they earned and conceded during the season.
The Rapids had the 5th most expected points in 2021 and the 4th most in 2022. The quick takeaway is that the difference between “success” in 2021 and “failure” in 2022 was some unknown mix of finishing luck, defensive errors, and other chaos. Whatever happened, ASA’s underlying shot model suggests that Colorado’s overall play was consistently playoff quality in both years. Despite having their roster depleted by transfers and injuries, the Rapids maintained a high level of play in 2022, and that seems likely to continue in 2023. Nothing is guaranteed given MLS’s parity and chaos, but playoffs are a reasonable expectation in my view, especially with the new format (thoughts and prayers for the laminator at 6000 Victory Way).
Patching the Leaks
Let’s dig into how these over and underperformances happened. While some pundits question if the Rapids will have the finishing skill needed to earn all the goals they create, I’m honestly not concerned. First, I’m one of those nerdy heretics that thinks luck has far more to do with shots hitting the inside of the net than skill when fans are chanting in the stands. But ASA’s xG-G numbers, a back of the envelope “finishing” metric, simply don’t bear this out. In 2021, Colorado overperformed their expected goal tally by 5-6 goals, and prevented 5-6 of the goals they were expected to concede. In 2022, Colorado’s team xG actually increased from 44 to 50, but were only able to seal 46 goals for the year, a slight underperformance. The defense also underperformed, allowing 6 more goals than expected.
These are both sizable net goal shifts in unexplained offense and defense performance, and together likely cost the Rapids some points. But again, I am a “finishing” heretic. I think much of this shift is chance and nothing inherent to the team’s quality. The real step back from 2021 was a 25% increase in expected goals against, from about 40 to about 50. Everyone that watched this club in 2022 has the moments that generated those extra -10 xGA burned into their mind. In the offseason, Colorado signed two defenders and a goalkeeper playing in Europe AND drafted a center back in the first round, so this is a weakness that has hopefully been strengthened for the 2023 campaign.
Sailing The Seas Without Captain Jack
Jack Price’s passing makes the Rapids attack work, shifting the ball quickly and efficiently in possession and delivering killer set pieces. He has been a fixture in the middle of the pitch since he first arrived in Colorado. Ignoring the 2020 COVID-fever-dream season, he played 3,028 minutes in 2018, 2,444 minutes in 2019, and 2,762 minutes in 2021. But because of persistent injuries, Price only managed only 1,211 minutes of gametime in 2022, about half of what he played the previous season. In 2021, Price statistically added three goals with his passing alone, nearly half of the passing G+ generated by the entire team. In 2022, his passing production was limited to one added goal, and the rest of the roster was only able to make up half the difference. Between last year’s trade for Ralph Priso, the winter transfer of Connor Ronan, and the return of Cole Bassett, fans will be hoping another central midfielder makes a big step forward as Captain Jack edges further and further past his late-twenties prime.
Diego Rubio is Not a 10
In 2021, the Rapids seemed to lack a consistent striker. Michael Barrios was the team’s top scorer with only eight goals while Rubio struggled to produce dangerous shots, only getting five goals on 5.0 xG in about 1,600 minutes. Seemingly needing a goal scorer, Colorado then traded for Gyasi Zardes early into the 2022 season, who consistently occupied the lone striker role, forcing Rubio into the attacking midfield areas previously occupied by Cole Bassett in 2021, and in this new position, he thrived. Rubio has played in just about every attacking position during his time in MLS, and his flexibility is an incredible asset for any team he’s on. However, his 16 goals and seven assists last year have many people in Rapids Wonderland claiming that attacking mid is his best position. Don’t buy the hype. Diego Rubio is a forward.
Folks have forgotten that Rubio was already dominating up top in the few 2022 games before Zardes arrived. He has consistently been an elite threat in MLS with his positioning. In every season he’s played in MLS, he’s topped 0.1 receiving g+ per 96, which translates to a goal every 8-10 games just from getting the ball in dangerous spots. Nico Lodeiro, an archetypical 10 that consistently unlocks defenses with killer passes, has contributed about 0.05 passing g+ per 96 since 2016. 2022 was Rubio’s only season at this level of passing production, and by the numbers his passing was actually an enormous liability his first year in Kansas City. But he obviously refined his game over the years and has added great passing to an impressive skill set that includes great shooting value and a conservative dribbling style that keeps possession.
With both Rubio and homegrown backup striker Darren Yapi scoring multiple goals this preseason, the Rapids’ firepower may catch some teams (and some pundits) off guard in 2023.