2023 Season Previews: Los Angeles Galaxy, Nashville SC, Minnesota

We’re rolling out 2023 MLS Season previews ahead of the regular season that kicks off on Saturday, February 25. You can find all of them here!

Nashville: I Wyke it. I Lovitz. I Want some Moore of it.

by Ben Wright

“You can run on for a long time,
Run on for a long time
Run on for a long time
Sooner or later your reliance on a single player for essentially all of your attacking
output’s gonna cut you down.”

- Johnny Cash, probably

2022 was a mixed year for Nashville SC. Shuffled over to the Western Conference for a single season, the ‘Yotes (yes, it’s short for ‘coyotes’, no I won’t stop calling them that) started the season with an eight-game road trip, never quite figured out how to win consistently at Geodis Park once they got home, and missed out on a home playoff game by on tiebreakers.

Despite exiting in the first round of the MLS Cup Playoffs, they got an all-timer of a season from Hany Mukhtar, who took home the league MVP award on the back of a league-high 23 goals and six assists. Which leads me to my first point.

Hany Mukhtar is, like… really good

It’s not a secret anymore in MLS, but Hany Mukhtar has been one of the best - arguably the best - attacker in the league for the last three seasons. His 47 goals are the most in that stretch, and other than Taty Castellanos, no one in the league has taken more shots or put more shots on target than Mukhtar. 

He’s a high-volume, high-usage attacker, averaging 3.28 shots and 1.50 shots on target per 96. Again, only Taty Castellanos has more. Despite being a known commodity, and receiving the full attention of defenses in every match he plays, Mukhtar still excels at finding space between the line, getting on the ball in transition, and isolating defenders in the final third.

While Mukhtar’s 34 combined goals and assists in 2022 may not be repeatable, the data shows he didn’t overperform. His non-penalty goals (17) were essential in line with his non-penalty xG (15.67) in 2022, and it seems reasonable to expect him to score another 15-20 goals in a mostly healthy 2023 season.

Is the rest of the attack good enough?

It’s not a secret anymore, but other than Mukhtar, there wasn’t much going for Nashville in 2023. In fact, after Mukhtar’s 23 goals, things fell off a cliff.

CJ Sapong scored five, the last of which game on May 28. He played 1,504 minutes the rest of the season, almost exclusively as a starter, without scoring. Teal Bunbury managed a solid return of five goals from just 747 minutes, while Aké Loba and Randall Leal scored once and twice, respectively. Walker Zimmerman, a defender (!!) was the third-highest scorer on the team with four.

Most teams would have reloaded their attack in the offseason, but Nashville made just a handful of attacking moves. Jacob Shaffelburg was signed to a permanent deal after his half-season loan, and Fafà Picault was signed from Houston Dynamo. 

Picault should be an improvement to Nashville’s attack. Over the last three seasons, Picault notched 21 goals, seven assists and 26.39 xG+xA, better than any Nashville player besides Mukhtar. Picault will add top-end speed and directness to a Nashville attack that lacked it last season, and should be a nice complementary piece. Without a functioning DP striker, though, it’s hard to see Nashville taking a massive step forward in 2023.

Can crosses win championships?

Gary Smith likes his teams to cross. Only Real Salt Lake, Seattle and Vancouver attempted more crosses than Nashville’s 19-per-match in the Western Conference in 2022. It’s not a super effective strategy to create chances, with as few as one in 64 crosses leading to a goal. If you’re gonna do it, though, you might as well try to do it well.

Nashville’s 0.22 goals added per 96 lead MLS in 2022, and they made a significant upgrade in Shaq Moore. The U.S. international was bought in the summer window, largely with an eye on upgrading Nashville’s service from the right flank, but didn’t have a team-changing impact in his 972 minutes. 

The ‘Yotes are set on crossing. Doing it as effectively as possible will require Moore to do more (pun intended) in 2023.

LA Galaxy: A Team in Deklein

by Sean Steffen

The LA Galaxy are the most decorated team in MLS history. No team in MLS has more MLS Cups, Supporters Shields, Concacaf titles, and they continue to remain the only MLS team to qualify for the Club World Cup to not lose a game at said tournament (I love a good technicality). 

But times are changing. The Galaxy are currently in the longest trophy drought in team history, and, frankly, the front office and ownership have been living in the make believe of La La land since the departure of Bruce Arena, assuring themselves of their greatness as a club, while time and again proving the opposite. 

With confidence, comes complacency. A team that was once the standard bearer of the league, finds themselves woefully behind the biggest MLS teams in terms of analytics (hire someone. I beg you), scouting (French agents aren’t scouting), and front office structure (a coach is not a front office). In fact, their entire philosophy seems to be stuck in the Beckham era mindset that brought the club to prominence: sign big names and the trophies will come, regardless of the personnel around them. 

With failures mounting, Galaxy president Chirs Klein has faced a lot of scrutiny from fans. Things reached a fever pitch this offseason when it was discovered the Galaxy front office cheated in the signing of Christian Pavon (losing while cheating is an indictment in itself). AEG responded to this news as any responsible owners would. They patted Klein on the back and extended his contract. 

This, in turn, has resulted in protests at the stadium, jersey unveiling, and a united supporter attendance boycott (take notes, Timbers fans), which has already seen empty supporter sections in preseason. 

With all this turmoil, the Galaxy are an interesting story going into the season. But will they be good?  Are the Galaxy going to continue this era of incompetence, or is this the year that the organization and front office start to take steps in the right direction to bring the club…..lol. I can’t even finish this thought.

Notable Transfers Out:

The Galaxy offseason began as many of Klein’s Galaxy seasons have…shipping off the bad signings he made previously. This offseason, the Galaxy got rid of two very expensive and unproductive Frenchmen in Kevin Cabral and Samuel Grandsir. Boy, that French agent has some ‘splainin to do.

One good player to leave this team for greener pastures is Julian Araujo. While Galaxy fans are thrilled to see this homegrown kid make a move to Barcelona, it has left the Galaxy with a hole at right back.

Why Are They Still Here?

Of course, sometimes a signing is so bad that offloading is difficult because nobody wants the player. This appears to be the case with the Galaxy and Douglas Costa, who the Galaxy were shopping around after his terrible year, but couldn’t find any suckers as dumb as they were when they took that contract. To be fair to the Galaxy, Costa’s performance was totally unexpected given the string of bad seasons the man had before signing with them. HE WAS DUE!

Another offseason classic of Klein’s Galaxy is re-signing expensive players with sub-par numbers, presumably because they have no one on staff to actually run numbers. The biggest among them this offseason was fan favorite goalkeeper, Johnathan Bond. Fans and club alike have been very happy with Bond, however, when you look at our shot stopping model built on post-shot xG (xG with info on where the shot went to better judge save opportunity), he’s one of the worst shot stoppers in the league.

You know it’s bad when you are praying for a guy named Klinsmann to take over.

Notable Transfers In:

Chris Mavinga

The Galaxy's biggest signing in the offseason was…a french guy! Unlike the previous batch of French guys, however, Chris Mavinga has proven MLS experience. Mavinga has a good skillset and lots of MLS experience, but also has a reputation for making mistakes. On a lofty 750k salary, he'll be expected to keep them to a minimum. The Cáceres and Mavinga pairing will be one to watch as they build that partnership as their backups are currently, a guy with a video game name, a child, and Vanney’s nephew.  

Memo Rodriguez

After shipping off two wingers, the Galaxy are notably light in winger depth, on top of their existing depth problems with the midfield three.  Enter Memo Rodriguez, who is a serviceable centermid backup, a decent scoring winger, and a killer Fortnite player.

Memo is a goal-dangerous player with a strong shot and technical enough to create his own shooting windows. He’s also a player that rarely gets on the ball (having one of the lowest touch rates in the league) and has poor decision making when it comes to shooting (loving the long shot). His best seasons have been ones he’s receiving the ball in good shooting positions, and this mostly happened for him as a winger. 

As a CM, he struggles due to his low touch rate and lack of distribution. It’s also worth noting that Memo was a G+ darling, despite poor output. With the Dynamo trash record at developing players, and, well, everything, it could very well be that Memo will be put in a position to succeed in LA and have a breakout season. Memo is a hard worker and always looking to improve his game to get on the field, so he will certainly work as hard as he can to be the player the Galaxy want him to be. As someone who is a big fan of his, I hope he succeeds. 

Tyler Boyd

While not officially signed, the Galaxy have brought in New Zealand native and USMNT (kinda) international, Tyler Boyd, as a trialist.  Boyd had success in the league in New Zealand, but has bounced around Europe since, failing to establish himself at a club. But, when you have a chance to sign a player who’s playing an average of 952 minutes a year over the last 3, you have to take it. 

If signed, will Boyd turn things around? Given the winger depth of Costa (washed), Alvarez (hasn’t translated skills to  MLS success) and Memo (a gamble), the Galaxy really need Boyd to be the goal scoring winger he hasn't been in awhile, as Chicharito can’t do it alone. It's a tough situation to be in, but it’s not like there’s a player with 11 goals sitting on that bench to provide support.

 Lucas Calegari

The final transfer worth discussing is one they made right under the wire, in the week prior to the opening game. With the departure of Araujo, the Galaxy were in desperate need of a right back, and have brought in 20 year old Lucas Calegari on loan from Fluminese to take his place. I don’t have much info on this signing, but, given the league’s extremely poor success rate on the u22 initiative signings, it strikes me as another gamble the Galaxy backed themselves into without proper foresight and planning. 

Good Summer Signings’ First Full Season

It hasn’t been all bad for the Galaxy. In fact, the Galaxy utilized the summer window quite well in 2022, correcting the course of a poorly built team.

While I have and will continue to dunk on the Galaxy’s scouting, Gaston Brugman was a very good find. Brugman is a technical defensive midfielder that excels in maintaining possession and playing progressive passes to jumpstart the attack. In fact, Brugman played the second most progressive passes per game, according to Statsbomb.

And then we have LA’s newest golden boy. Riqui Puig.

I won’t beat around the bush. Puig may be the best player in the league. Puig’s numbers jump off the page when it comes to his ability on the ball (dribbling score) and his passing score, which is anchored in his love of playing progressive passes. Remember how Brugman was second in this category? Guess who was number one.

Below is a progressive pass map from Statsbomb. The start locations coincide with what we see on the g+ wheel in the low receiving score. Mainly, Puig was receiving the ball in deep lying positions and playing progressives from deep, and rarely into shooting positions.

While he is amazing in this role, it does leave the Galaxy with a need for a player that will receive these balls from Puig and then turn them into passes into the box (preferably not fullback crosses, as the Galaxy are want to do).

In fact, when you look at the second spectrum data, the Galaxy are one of the best teams in the league at gaining goal scoring probability through ball progression, but failed to deliver in the final third. Perhaps this is why they were most dangerous last year on the counter, when defenses aren’t set.

With the Galaxy not bringing in such a player to help Puig, it’s possible his brilliance may not translate to the end product such passing deserves. Then again, he’s also really, really, good, so I wouldn’t be all that shocked if he effectively carries this team. 

So, all in all, a good summer for the Galaxy. With the depth issues on this roster, they’ll need to have a similarly good summer to… Oh right. The cheating ban.

FORMATIONS

Given the state of the Galaxy front office, it’s often hard to determine whether or not Vanney is doing a good job. On the whole, the Galaxy have been a lot better defensively since his arrival, however, Vanney had a forward that scored 11 goals off the bench last year, and couldn’t find a way to get him on the field, opting instead to play guys like Costa and Cabral on the wings.. Such production could have been a welcome addition to the Galaxy’s playoff run, but, in Vanney’s defense, if you can think of a system that would take advantage of having two good forwards, a strong cm trio, accommodates teams who can’t get production from wingers, that’s also hard to break down,  I’d like to hear it. 

The Galaxy lined up in a 4-3-3 their first preseason game with something close to a first choice group, with Memo Rodriguez, Efrain Alvarez and Tyler Boyd spending time on the wing, and Jovelic on the bench (slams head into wall). 

What Did They Actually Do?

My big question for the Galaxy going forward is, what did they actually do? Aside from off-loading the French wingers and swapping in cheaper options without a history of doing what they need, how exactly are the Galaxy a better team than last year? If not signings or shifting to a 3-5-2 to get better players on the field, what have they done to improve?

The answer, it seems, is not much. Is this part the Galaxy delusion that doing almost nothing will result in big gains, or are they correct in thinking they have the pieces they need to make a run, and perhaps giving them a little bit more time to develop chemistry and familiarity with the system, will propel them into being contenders.

For their sake, let’s hope this is the case, because there are no replacements coming. Not even at president.

Minnesota - No Mames, Rey

By Paul Harvey

I find myself on familiar ground with Minnesota, with most of what needed to be said about the team already said in last season’s preview. They return, as per usual, a good amount of their production. They have talent in multiple positions. They have a playoff caliber roster and an experienced manager. Here’s a quick look at how their roster build has gone this offseason:

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That’s pretty good! Certainly enough to make the playoffs again, right? Just as long as there aren’t any major hiccups over the offseason.

Rey-no-show

Oh yeah.

Emanuel Reynoso has been the foundational piece to the Minnesota United. No team has invested so much in a single player in a sporting sense. For the last 2 years, no player has had as much usage in the final third as Reynoso. He has a dazzling array of skills, vision, and technique, and is the determining factor in whether or not Minnesota is successful

He also hasn’t shown up for preseason, and is now suspended without pay by MLS. The relationship appears broken. What does that mean for Minnesota? How are they going to compete without the major focal point for their team?

What if, beyond all reason, they’ll be better?

It’s a crazy thought, but it’s not impossible. The fact is, the high usage 10 model has not brought much success for Minnesota. Their floor has been high, but 3 consecutive playoff disappointments are a sign that something needs changing. For Reynoso, the number of touches correlates with points earned at a coefficient of 0.0007 - practically no correlation at all.

There’s also a theory out there, called the Ewing Theory, that states that teams can play better when a superstar player is suddenly absent. This article gives a basketball based explanation of how that might occur. In soccer terms, the game is a network problem - the ball must travel from a certain point to the goal, and it can take many paths to get there. For Minnesota, most of those paths went through Reynoso. The fact is that for all but a few players in the world, a single player taking on so much of the ball simplifies the defensive process. Rather than adapting to the idiosyncrasies of 4 or 5 players in the attacking third, you just have to prepare for one. Efficiency goes down as usage goes up.

A long absence for Reynoso can mean that Minnesota has to learn how to play as a team, and get contributions from a variety of players. Minnesota has a good roster, and there’s no reason they can’t evolve as a team without a singular player shouldering the bulk of their duties. Then, if Reynoso does return, there is a platform for success that he can improve.

Finnish Army Knife:

The strength of Minnesota in Reynoso’s absence may be the midfield, led by converted winger Robin Lod. Lod has played 58 games for Minnesota as a winger, but has also played as a striker. For the back half of 2022 he shifted to a full time central midfielder and was a revelation in the position. His versatility opens up options for Minnesota that allow them to adjust quickly to their schedule, while keeping opponents on their toes.

Meanwhile, midfield partner Kervin Arriaga was one of the best young midfielders in the league last season, garnering relatively little attention but providing defensive solidity and on ball quality in equal measure. Rounding out the midfield is former USMNT mainstay Wil Trapp, unpolished Honduran talent Joseph Rosales, and energetic FB/DM combo Hassani Dotson, who is coming back from a devastating knee injury after a promising 2021 campaign.

This midfield can play a variety of ways, fitting in to whatever systems spring from the mind of long time manager Adrian Heath. This kind of flexibility should in theory permit experimentation and a breakaway from the staid patterns of the previous 3 seasons.

One Striking Issue:

The one constant thorn in the side of Minnesota United has been poor striker play. 4 of Minnesota’s DPs have been strikers, and none have scored double digit goals or even gotten to double digit xG. In fact, only Christian Ramirez - a poacher who offered little other than goal scoring - ever eclipsed double digit goals as a striker. That’s bad.

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Luis Amarilla, a DP signing who was with Minnesota United in 2020, came on as a permanent signing. Amarille promised 25 goals for the Loons in 2020, but only scored 3; he came into 2022 stating he would make up the difference. He scored 9. Other than that, how did it go?

At this stage, it seems like the problem for Minnesota is that they consistently go for more standard striker prospects - Ramirez, Adrien Hunou, now Luis Amarilla - with little return. The type of player they have fundamentally has not fit well with the focal point of the offense, Reynoso. A more conventional approach through the midfield, as well as a group of forwards who are better in transition, might result in more goals for the Loons and more production from the center of the park.

It might not, of course, and without their star Minnesota is not favored to get out of the basement of the West by most MLS pundits.

Dark Loon Rising:

Even without Reynoso, there’s really no reason Minnesota shouldn’t be one of the better teams in a weak western conference. They have a strong roster with valuable depth at every position. The midfield is quietly one of the best in the league. Their support at home is excellent.

They also have that thing that every real contender needs - a goalkeeper that wins games. Dayne St Clair won the job outright in 2022, and looks like one of the brightest young keepers in the league. While his 0.95 G/xG isn’t outrageously good, he’s made consistent improvements as he’s developed. His performances erase goals and create points, and in a league with tight margins that makes a huge difference.

With everything they have in place the expectations have to be a deep playoff run and success in the Open Cup and the Leagues Cup. Despite that, their average preseason prediction on MLSsoccer.com had them third last in the West. At this point, stagnation is a problem. No outside observer has any confidence in their ability to create any danger or make anything happen. If nothing changes in the table this season, then something needs to change off the field.