2023 Season Previews: Toronto FC, Charlotte FC, Atlanta United FC
/We’re rolling out 2023 MLS Season previews ahead of the regular season that kicks off on Saturday, February 25. You can find all of them here!
ATLANTA: HOME IS WHERE THE GARTH IS
Predicting 2023 for Atlanta United seems impossible, and that has almost nothing to do with what happened in 2022, although we really should look at 2022. First, something of a tradition in these previews, the full and up to date annotated franchise xGD history of Atlanta United.
OK, so when you squint at that, it kinda looks like Gonzalo Pineda’s version of Atlanta United has pulled the team up out of the late de Boer / Glass / Heinze pits of despair, returning to a respectable performance level of “playoffness.” Why does it not feel that way for Atlanta United supporters?
Well, Atlanta United did not make the playoffs. It turned out it wasn’t particularly close either, finishing 8 points shy of Orlando City’s 48 points. And, they accomplished this against all odds. First, they were a top 5 chance creating team in MLS, doing 1.6 xG per game (against a league average 1.4). They were subpar defensively, allowing 1.45 xG per game, which put them right around the bottom third of the league, but the combined underlying numbers here suggested Atlanta were maybe the 9th best team in MLS, holding down a decent +5 goal difference, which would’ve been good enough for the playoffs. Instead, Atlanta was the worst finishing team in the league erasing 6 would be goals, and their opponents finished 15% more goals than the chances Atlanta conceded would suggest, erasing another 5 of goal difference which after the finishing woes, was goal difference they really didn’t have the luxury of giving away.
One way to sum up 2022 is to say that in a year where they lost their starting veteran goalkeeper captain (and his backup) and their USMNT caliber starting center back to torn Achilles injuries as well as their starting veteran defensive midfielder and MLS legend to a torn MCL (and a bunch of other unfortunate long term injuries), ultimately it was probably just finishing luck that that cost them a playoff spot.
Another way to sum up 2022 is to say that in a year with the above key injuries to the spine and despite the manager benching big money stars like Josef Martinez and Marcelino Moreno for decent chunks of the season and despite the wrath of the finishing gods described above, if the team had only rostered and the manager had only decided to start a league average MLS goalkeeper instead of Rocco Rios Novos, they would’ve made the playoffs.
Neither of those summaries sit well with Atlanta supporters, for several reasons.
Probably the main reason is that for a team that spent 40% more on total guaranteed wages than the average MLS team, the roster definitely felt…under-constructed. One of the ways a manager impacts the game the most is getting the best players on the field, and (understably so) Gonzalo Pineda struggled to identify a starting lineup that was both cohesive and inclusive of all of the club’s top talents. Among other things, this essentially meant that one of Marcelino Moreno and Thiago Almada had to sit out basically the entire second half of the year. Right-sided attacker Luis Araujo, the team’s highest paid player struggled to find the back of the net, registering 4 goals on 9 xG worth of shots. In another year, perhaps he buries 5 more of his 98 shots and it’s a different story (both for him and the club), but when you take most of your shots from wide and outside the box (averaging 0.08 xG/shot), like he did in 2022, you invite variance for good or for bad (it appears that this same variance was his friend in France).
Something that will improve your xG/shot is getting into the damn box, which was a topic of last year’s preview. We wondered whether Josef Martinez would return to his older self and make those penetrating runs that had been absent since the big knee injury. The answer was no. He did improve this nominally on a per minute basis year over year, but it remained exceedingly low (5.8 runs into the box p96) relative to other strikers. And this low figure (as well has his pretty good xG/96 in 2022) should be put into the context that he was often playing off the bench in the last half hours of matches against tired legs as the manager assessed his fitness as not good enough for more than that.
But back to Araujo, who also did not commit enough to arriving in the most dangerous areas off the ball (4 runs into the box p96). Something that was apparent to all careful observers of this team was that despite the loaned addition of journeyman workhorse #9 Ronaldo Cisneros who did in fact challenge the backline like the best of ‘em (up there with names like Zardes and Castellanos), this 2022 team was still just chocked full of guys who wanted the ball to their feet now more than they wanted to run into space to get it next, and this made for continued agonizing viewing and underachievement (for like the third year running).
So let’s pivot toward 2023. Atlanta has finally invested in more off-ball movement, and tried to address the goalkeeping risks.
Left Wing:
Out: Marcelo Moreno and his 3.9 runs into the box p96
In: Derrick Etienne Jr. and his 8.2 runs into the box p96 (!!!)
Striker:
Out: Josef Martinez, and his 5.8 runs into the box p96, Dwyer and Cisneros (more active runners)
In: (DP) Gorgios Giakoumakis and his 0.48 xG per96. I’m don’t have any off-ball data for him, but he’s pretty active on tape. I would guess he’s somewhere on that chart between Mukhtar, Vazquez, Ruidaz, and Cisneros.
Center back:
Out: Alan Franco, George Campbell
Alan Franco had the sort of on-ball g+ numbers that looked a whole lot like Leandro Gonzalez Pirez, that is to say elite. Trouble was, he seemed to always be at fault for the opponents’ big chances, lacking both the awareness and explosiveness to put out fires.
In: Luis Abram
When Luis Abram was at Velez (under Gabriel Heinze) a few years back he had the sort of on-ball g+ numbers in Argentina that look a whole lot like those of a future European stalwart. Comparable players transferred to Man U, Everton, Villareal, Ajax, Lyon, and Bournemouth. Sure enough, Abram went to Granada in La Liga in 2021, but has spent most of his time loaned to Cruz Azul in Mexico while apparently not impressing. This could be a stunningly good (and lucrative) signing for Atlanta or another (cheaper) Franco, it’s tough to tell.
Goalkeeper:
Out: Rocco Rios Novos and all the backups from last year
In: Quentin Westberg, Clint Diop
Like I said, it’s probably impossible to tell a story about Atlanta’s 2022 season without talking about the goalkeeping which was historically bad. Of the 230 team seasons in the ASA database, Atlanta’s 2022 was the 15th worst (with Rios Novos between the sticks more than any other ATL keeper). Curiously, there were four teams with worse outings in 2022, so it was a rough year for goalkeeping in general according to our models.
For the upcoming season, Atlanta hopes Guzan has fully recovered but has hedged their bets with two recently active signings. Westberg who’s been in Toronto the last four seasons, has not done good numbers at all since 2020, when he bested his xG by 4% on 2,000 minutes (in 1,000 2022 minutes he let in 23% more goals than the shots he faced would suggest). Clint Diop, the second signing showed very poorly in 2022 as well but on a very limited 300 minutes. Prior to that, in 3,000 minutes across the prior 3 seasons, he saved about 9% more goals than his xG would suggest, which if he had more minutes would be in the upper tier of shot-stopping performances in the league.
Guzan has been shaky so far in preseason, so you can squint and imagine Diop winning this job with a chance to prove whether or not 2022 was a fluke. That outcome would be immense for Atlanta in a league where due to relative overall parity, goalkeeping performance can have such a massive impact on the league results. Having said that, I caution us all since, goalkeeping xG metrics are still very, very noisy when you’re just looking at seasons (or fewer) of shots. Prior to 2022, Rios Novo’s numbers looked good.
Charlotte FC: Crown Contenders or Charlotte-ans?
by Paul Harvey
Charlotte’s offseason cannot be discussed without first acknowledging the tragic and sudden loss of Anton Walkes this January. As much joy as soccer brings, the human side of it is always the most important. Walkes will be remembered as a wonderful teammate, father, and person, and our hearts are with the Charlotte FC family as they navigate a very difficult time in their club.
A Remarkable Debut:
Charlotte refused to follow the script set out for them in the preview last season, instead taking a completely unexpected turn barely midway through the season. Miguel Angel Ramirez, the rising star manager who was the most notable member of Charlotte FC, was unceremoniously fired with the expansion team still in 8th place. The big names he brought in from previous experiences were for the most part shipped out before the season even ended.
Long time MLS assistant Christian Lattanzio took over, and guided the team to a 9th place finish. While the stated goal of the team was to reach the playoffs, it was nonetheless a successful finish to a season that could just as easily have gone off the rails.
Home Bodies:
One of the most interesting aspects of Charlotte’s performance has been their ability to get results at home, while looking dreadful on the road. Compared to ASA’s xPoints model, getting 42 out of 44.97 expected points is pretty reasonable. When you break it apart by home and away, things start to look weird.
Charlotte earned 31 of its 42 points at home, beating an xPoints prediction of 26.69. On the road, they only managed 11 points from a predicted 18.28 That’s an incredible underperformance. Even if both numbers regress towards the mean, as long as Charlotte continues to improve the consistency and quality of their on field product they should be in a more comfortable place.
Charlotte’s biggest challenge will be doing the things on the road that have proven to work in MLS. Here’s a look at the difference in the kinds of shots they took at home vs on the road:
As you can see, Charlotte not only took far fewer shots while on the road, their shots were in general lower quality. In MLS, it’s fine to take fewer shots as the road team. Soaking up pressure and giving up the ball is a fairly common approach in a league where home field advantage is so strong. If a team does that, though, they need to make their relatively infrequent shots count. Lattanzio will have to set his team up better on the road and make up points to have any hope of keeping up with the rest of the conference.
The Center (Backs) Will Not Hold - or will They?
While the tragic passing of Anton Walkes overshadows any roster concerns, Charlotte FC faces a number of questions along the back line. Christian Fuchs has retired from soccer. Christian Makoun now plays for New England. Guzman Corujo’s return from a serious knee injury is still uncertain.
That leaves a CB group of 21 year old Adilson Malanda (595 minutes last season), 23 year old Jan Sobocinski (436 minutes) and number 1 Superdraft pick Hamady Diop. That’s an absolutely terrifying combination of depth and experience. (Breaking - Bill Tuiloma was acquired by Charlotte after the completion of this article. His experience and quality will have an instant impact in a position where Charlotte desperately needed support)
If there’s any bright spot it’s that Adilson Malanda might just be the best center back in the league despite being barely old enough to drink.
You heard it first here. Although he’s only had 595 minutes of MLS experience, he was the best CB by G+ of any player to play 500 minutes or more. Malanda is by far the most talented young CB in the league, putting up Mo Fall numbers over the back half of the season - just for a team far worse than the LAFC team Fall played for.
It’s a small sample, but not that small, and every indication is that Charlotte has an incredible gem on their hands. Fall moved to Villareal after a relatively brief time with LAFC; Malanda seems set to make a similar jump.
Designated Doldrums:
One of the most pressing questions about Charlotte’s roster going into 2023 is the fact that they have gotten little production out of their Designated Players and U22 Initiative signings.
Charlotte had 3 DPs throughout the 2023 season; Karol Swiderski, Kamil Jozwiak, and Jordy Alcivar. How did that go?
That’s not great! And while Swiderski looked stronger and more important to the team’s success as the season went on, Jozwiak and Alcivar never truly did. Alcivar has been shipped back to Independiente del Valle, another casualty of the Miguel Angel Ramirez firing. Jozwiak will get at least one more season to prove he can add value, but if he does not drastically improve his time at the club will most likely be brief.
Enco Copetti has been brought in as the third Designated Player to help bring goals. Daniel Rios was sold to Chivas after a strong campaign, and with Swiderski more frequently playing behind a striker another option was needed.
What about the U22 spots? Charlotte signed two players under that initiative, with one more spot that can be used. They spent a combined 3.5 million dollars on two players that had no significant senior experience in Internacional’s Vinicius Mello (another former MAR player) and in Fereinse’s Kerwin Vargas. Mello received a foot injury shortly after arriving in MLS and has yet to play a single minute, while Vargas played 682 minutes without doing much of note. (He was, to be fair, the player with the most xG+xA who did not register a goal or assist in 2023). Again - these spots come with the expectation of immediate production, and Charlotte got very little from the two in 2022.
2023 Dreams:
Year 2 can be tough for some teams. It can also be absurdly lucky and lead to incredibly outsized expectations from fans (Hi Austin). Everything about their success seems sustainable from year to year. They did not lose much production from this year to last. Their coach is the kind of experienced MLS manager who understands the ebbs and flows of the season. They have a goalkeeper that can make the difference between points dropped and won. Another year of evolution and growth should result in success.
The only obstacle is that at the same time, the Eastern conference has been getting better and better. Nashville SC, a playoff team in each year of their existence, has flipped conferences. The teams at the top have reloaded. The teams at the bottom have spent to get better. Has Charlotte done enough to keep up?
In the end, the bar continues to be the playoffs. In order to reach that bar, Charlotte’s luxury positions have to produce better than the cheaper options on the roster. If they can get production from the whole roster Charlotte could be the latest team to surprise in their sophomore season.
Toronto FC - Boom. Rosted.
by Kieran Doyle
Toronto FC’s 2022 season was a weird one. 2021 was a morass of poor roster decisions, lots of old and departing players playing minutes for reasons that weren’t totally clear. 2022 was… progress? The ghosts of TFC2 teams past (see: academy products) started the season with vim and gusto, but ultimately found TFC rooted to the bottom of the table before reinforcements by way of AlItalia came. Insigne, Bernardeschi (and a sneaky weird Mark-Anthony Kaye trade) provided some uplift, but ultimately injuries and a very thin roster left the Reds not close to their stated goals.
Bring on 2023 and there is an unusual clarity to this team. It is rare to say that about a team returning only 65% of its minutes the next season. Both co-starting goalkeepers, Alex Bono and Quentin Westberg, are gone - replaced by an MLS experienced stalwart free agency get in Sean Johnson. Gone is the much maligned and often-better-but-also-often-worse Chris Mavinga, in is MLS experienced stalwart Matt Hedges via free agency (and also TAM signing Sigurd Rosted). Left back has gone from Luca Petrasso, traded for GAM, and Domenico Criscito, retired then unretired in Italy, to a different-but-technically-still-Italian TAM signing in Raoul Petretta. The bones of a good team are there. Let’s see the optimist’s case on Toronto FC’s 2023 season.
Pass it to the Italians
Bill Manning endlessly spammed F5 on TransferMarkt for 1 reason, and that 1 reason is Lorenzo Insigne. He may have also stumbled upon Fede Bernardeschi, who has seemingly bought into Toronto culture more, but we’ll get there with Insigne.
Toronto FC’s season will go where these two go, luckily, there’s a lot to like. Starting with the Toronto Manz himself, Bernardeschi requires some nuance. He scored 8 goals, but 5 of them were penalties. Three goals, two assists on about five non penalty expected goals and assists in his 1100 minutes. The nice stuff is what he did as both a passer and a receiver in the final third - four progressive passes, three passes into the penalty area, with none of them being crosses. Add in 6.5 progressive passes received, that’s a very very healthy attacking component. G+ doesn’t love him, but a lot of it is on dribbling value lost in the final third. Dribbling is kind of noisy (one bad touch in the box and you’re behind the 8 ball for a month), I’m not super worried given he played alone a lot.
nsigne, the numbers like. He was the 2nd best winger in MLS by g+ per 96 minutes with over 1000 minutes last season at +0.12. All of that is in passing, dribbling. 5.5 NPxG+xA in about 1000 minutes, with 5.5 progressive passes, 2 passes into the box, and 7 progressive passes received is just the definition of a mega heliocentric all-star attacker in our league. There are 2, rather large, caveats. Per our friends at FBRef, Insigne is 99th percentile shot volume (this is good!), he is also 8th percentile shot quality (this is bad). Those two things together is a lot of wasted possessions and fan injuries behind the goal. The second, Insigne is 90th percentile or higher (among wingers) touch volume in every single part of the pitch except for his own penalty area, and more crucially, the other penalty area. The guy is as ball dominant as ball dominance comes, you need to back it up.
All this to say, these guys are legit good. If they play like it and direct it just a liiiiittle more efficiently, TFC are cooking with gas.
Father Time is Undefeated
Like I said, TFC added a lot of clarity to their roster this year. There is a clear first choice goalkeeper, clear first choice center back pairing, clear starting fullbacks, so on and so on. At the same time, they got almost comically older.
When you take into account: 1) all the departing names, 2) their newly signed counterparts, 3) everyone aging a year from last year, and 4) the likely minutes reductions for some of the young players, you see a pretty gnarly trend. Last season Toronto had a minutes weighted average age of 26.4. Bradley, Criscito, and Westberg bring this up quite a bit but no biggy. The projected minutes weighted average age for this season is 29.3 years old. And that’s before the rumoured sales of Jayden Nelson or Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty, both of whom should be legitimate squad contributors.
Age brings experience and wisdom, but in soccer it also brings groin pulls and hamstring tears. TFC will have to manage this to have a shot at MLS Cup in 2023.
My kingdom for a goalkeeper (and a center back)
In come Sean Johnson, Matt Hedges, and Sigurd Rosted, the presumptive saviours of Toronto FC’s back line in 2023. Johnson needs little introduction to the MLS fans amongst us, a career stalwart across many a successful team who consistently beats his xG according to the Opta@FBRef data. Our dataset, going back to his Chicago days, has him a little closer to something like even with his xG, but even that consistency is an improvement over the wild ups and downs of Bono and Westberg over the last few seasons. Looking at the non shot stopping stuff, Johnson profiles as about average at kind of everything. On video? He is a consistently reliable distributor with a solid range on claiming aerial balls, he is fine off his line but not going to sweep like crazy. The biggest thing is he’s steady. The likely $750k+ salary is probably not extremely efficiently being spent here, but you were spending about that on Bono+Westberg and he’s better than both, so this is fine.
Hedges is very weird to evaluate. You simply do not play 2000 minutes every single season from age 21 to 31, barring injury, if you are bad. Statistically, he’s kind of whatever? G+ likes him as an above average center back for every year of his career, bar one, but not by much. Normally it grades him out as a plus passer and the interrupting is somewhat whatever (which is fine and common for centerbacks on good teams like FCD have mostly been), last year that flips - which is likely due to how much he was asked to step in and win things in a pretty vicious Dallas press and counter-press. On video, Hedges is a lot like Sean John. He’s not exceptional, but he’s steady and reliable. A solid foundation. No slight on Chris Mavinga (who is probably a better player than Hedges on his day), but a solid foundation is what this team needs. I only have wacky Wyscout data on Rosted and some video, but he seems like a very large gentlemen who enjoys giving strikers a good thwack, and he moves the ball forward at a decent clip (into the final third about four times a game) on either side of a centerback pairing, so we’ll see on that one.
All in all, Toronto said screw a rebuild we’re trying to win now. By my admittedly dodgy Salary Cap math, they -$12500 left to spend. There are no real avenues to improve the team from here (selling academy kids to europe aside). You simply have to be good.