Predicting 2023 for Atlanta United seems impossible, and that has almost nothing to do with what happened in 2022, although we really should look at 2022. First, something of a tradition in these previews, the full and up to date annotated franchise xGD history of Atlanta United.
Read MoreWe’re publishing three team previews every weekday until MLS First Kick on April 16th. You can find all of them here.
Read MoreThis is the fifth article in a series of articles and videos in the Where Goals Come From project from Jamon Moore and Carl Carpenter.
By now, readers of the Where Goals Come From project will be very in tune with the benefits of progressive passing in soccer, both from a data and tactical perspective. Within these last few weeks you’ve probably noticed a trend about the scope of progressive passing and its effectiveness throughout all levels of men’s and women’s football, furthering its importance within the game as a means of scoring goals (you know...where goals come from).
However, as American Soccer Analysis, we would be remiss to not put one specific league under the microscope and take a deeper look: in this case, Major League Soccer. In doing so, I’m going to look at the various tactical schemes the “defining” teams of the past three seasons in MLS have used to find success. These teams are:
Read MoreEver since the first coach had the first microphone stuck in his or her face, or the first pundit expounded upon their local sports team, folks have opined that “we were better than the results” or “we should have won that game.” And for a long time, you would pretty much have to take their word on that.
But the new g+ metric, and the even-newer aggregate measure of g+ that ASA’s Mattias Kullowatz (twitter: @MattyAnselmo) and John Muller (@johnspacemuller) rolled out last week has given us a tool that lets us actually say with real certainty that a team is better, worse, or exactly what the win-loss results show. In other words, g+ is a giant neon sign that blinks “Regression Ahead” or “We wuz robbed, again.”
Read MoreIn 2019, de Boer came in claiming he’d “fix the defense” of the MLS Cup winners and leave the attack the same. They started in a 3-4-3, which after some early failings, morphed almost immediately in the opening weeks to a 4-3-3 which after an extended ramp kept Atlanta United towards the top half of the east but angered basically everyone involved. What de Boer brought to the club was a more conservative approach to defense and a more possession-oriented approach to attack, which looked pretty boring until the ball made its way into the final third at which point you’d see some creative interchange and risk-taking by the front 3/4, with the idea that you just had to accept that turnovers would happen and the team would need to “lock on” in those transition moments to win the ball back high or force a clearance and then go again. And there would be turnovers. Or this was the concept at least. Change is hard. Hold that thought.
Read MoreFollowing the departure of left back Mikey Ambrose and the new more expensive deal for Miles Robinson, there are two Supplemental Roster spots open, so Atlanta will need to fill these two spots with players who are making the senior minimum, or Generation Adidas, or a specifically designated SuperDraft picks, or a homegrowns. I would bet on a 2020 first round draft pick holding one spot and something creative happening with the other, some sort of loan where Atlanta only pays the senior minimum and the home club takes the rest perhaps.
Read MoreIt finally happened! I got one right last week! I did! I was doing a sarcasm and lo and behold I got a take dead on. ANALYSIS! Yes Atlanta and Cincinnati did in fact turn out to be a low scoring affair between two evenly matched sides. It feels like six months ago I was called a straight up hater for raising my eyebrows at De Boer’s most recent entries on his resume, but now discussing whether or not he knows what he’s doing is the take du jour. What can I say folks? I was bashing FDB before most of you had even heard of him. I have it on vinyl.
Read MoreWe’re back! MLS has returned and as goeth MLS so too goeth the takes. Now, it would obviously be silly to make any grand sweeping proclamations based on only one week of soccer. It would be pointless, likely incorrect, and wildly irresponsible. So obviously we’re going to do it anyway. Let’s get that narrative machine cranked up!
Chatter amongst the savvier MLS analysts has been about Atlanta and SKC rising to dominate their divisions. While I don’t exactly have a seat at that particularly niche Algonquin round table, I do try and make myself available to refill their drinks or mop up any spills Tenorio makes when he gets over excited about a scoop, and impressionable as I am, I too was convinced of these teams being unmatched in their respective divisions. I think a good many MLS enthusiast was surprised to see the opening weekend come and go with neither of the presumptive divisional favorites taking even a point, and Atlanta being the only team in the entire league that couldn’t even muster a goal.
Benny Olsen should charge 200k TAM per team and offer up whatever he’s figured out that often makes Atlanta become utterly pedestrian when they come up against mighty DC. Actually, it seems like whatever the Red Bulls do also works more often than not.
Read MoreJoin me for a moment in a Lovecraftian horror in which time is an illusion and the events of life as we know it, or the meaningful events at least, (soccer matches) progress not sequentially by the steady consumption of the present as measured in minutes and seconds but by the experience of passes being attempted from open play. In this nightmare, as the fates dictate the average MLS team experiences 900 such passes attempted during a match (the total of both teams over 90+ minutes), and using passes experienced as the unit of account, the average 2018 MLS team spent 46% of its matches with a level score line (27% leading and 27% trailing).
Read More
