2023 Season Previews: DC United, SKC, St. Louis city
/We’re rolling out 2023 MLS Season previews ahead of the regular season that kicks off on Saturday, February 25. You can find all of them here!
DC United: Wayne’s World
2022 didn’t go very well for D.C. United, to put it mildly. The club enters 2023 as Wooden Spoon holders after picking up just 27 points from 34 games. 2023 will be manager Wayne Rooney’s first full season in charge at Audi Field and he’s seemingly been given the opportunity to influence team building decisions.
After the departure of General Manager Lucy Rushton at the end of the 2022 season, DCU’s owners said, “We are focused on bringing leadership that will work closely with head coach Wayne Rooney and our management team to build a squad that once again competes at the top echelon of Major League Soccer. In order to accomplish this and to evolve as a club, we felt it was necessary to make this decision and bring in new leadership.” A new GM hasn’t been hired and longtime executive Dave Kasper has the title of President of Soccer Operations and Sporting Director.
Instead of embarking on a rebuild prioritizing youth and upside, DCU will look to climb out of MLS’ cellar by relying on a core of players clearly assembled for short-term success. It’s unclear how successful they’ll be but the Black and Red are certainly trying to compete now.
A Core Built for Now
Part of the impetus for short-term improvement could come down to Rooney as 2023 is the final guaranteed season of his contract. If Matt Doyle’s current projected depth chart starts for DC on February 25, the teams average age would be 29.4. Rooney will have to rely on an older attacking core of Designated Players to keep the Black and Red in contention.
Taxi Fountas, the youngest of DC’s DPs, will be back with the team after MLS concluded an investigation into his alleged use of racial slur in a game against Miami. Fountas’ 12 goals in nearly 1,500 minutes led the Black and Red and represented a third of the team’s season total. Though his goal scoring outpaced his expected goals (0.71 goals/96 to 0.41 xG/96), Fountas showed an ability to generate shots that should carry forward into 2023.
2023 will also be Christian Benteke’s first full season in MLS. Throughout his career, Benteke has always gotten in good positions to score goals, he just…hasn’t always. In 605 MLS minutes in 2022, obviously a tiny sample size, he generated 3.40 xG according to ASA’s model but scored just once. According to Opta data on FBref, Benteke has scored 20 goals on 32 NPxG since the 2016-17 season. Without getting into the finishing is real or isn’t debate, Benteke perpetual underperformance of xG needs to at least be noted.
Maybe more concerning for the Black and Red will be questions about Benteke’s ability stay on the field.. Since 2017-18, Benteke has played more than 2,000 minutes in a season just once and more than 1,500 two other times. Last season, between Crystal Palace and DCU, Benteke combined to play just over 1,700 minutes. Benteke should have opportunities to score goals but whether he’ll be as reliable, either from a scoring or minutes perspective, as DPs need to be remains to be seen.
This offseasons big addition comes with similar questions. Mateusz Klich arrived from Leeds United in January. Klich, 32, played just 280 first-team minutes in 2022-23, and just over 2,000 the season prior. Klich should make DCU better but leaning on him to play as many minutes as you want from a DP will be a major ask.
The same uncertainty applies to much of the roster. Victor Pálsson turns 32 in April and was a slightly-below average player per g+ in less than a 1,000 minutes last season. Ever dependable Pedro Santos, 34, joined as a free agent in the winter.
What Happened to the Youth Movement?
Which brings me to my biggest question about DC United entering 2023: what happened to the supposed youth movement that Wayne Rooney talked up last year? Sure, some of the kids will get minutes this year but the Black and Red didn’t operate like a team ready to hand the reins to up-and-coming talent.
Ted Ku-DiPietro, Jackson Hopkins, Kristian Fletcher, and Matai Akinmboni all played limited roles last year and could end up playing even less this year. U22 initiative player Chris Durkin faces a more complicated path towards playing time, though he didn’t exactly seize a starting XI spot last season.
For a team one or two pieces away from being a MLS Cup contender, forgoing talented youth in favor of experience might make sense. But, surely, DCU management and ownership watched the same team we did last year. And that team wasn’t a Mateusz Klich away from a title.
The Goalkeeping Has to Get Better, Right?
DC’s goalkeepers combined for -12.53 goals added above average in 2023, -0.36 per 96 minutes. Rafael Romo played the most minutes and, well, this graphic tells the story better than anything I could write about his season.
Club legend Bill Hamid and mid-season trade acquisition David Ochoa are not returning in 2023.
Enter Tyler Miller and Alex Bono, who both signed as free agents in the offseason. Neither has a long track record of excellence in goal but if whoever wins the job can move DCU back to even slightly below average in goal, it’ll represent a colossal improvement. Coupled with a backline that could have three new starters on opening night and DC’s goalkeeper might be tested early.
SKC - A Tale of Two (Sporting Kansas) Cities
by Jared Young
How much can we extrapolate from three months of soccer? Whether or not Sporting Kansas City can return to their perennial playoff form in 2023 depends on how you answer that question.
Following a solid 2021 campaign that saw Sporting place 3rd in the Western Conference, Vermes’ 2022 band were terrible out of the gate. After allowing 1.17 goals per game in 2021, the team allowed 1.71 through July of last season.
As is usually the case when a team surprisingly stumbles, injuries were an issue that Vermes and the team needed to juggle.
Outside of that, productive wingers Daniel Salloi and Johnny Russell, responsible for 31 goals in 2021, struggled to produce, and SKC were quickly irrelevant.
Which brings us to the last three months of the season and a pair of European transfers. In August the defense returned to form, allowing a solid 1.2 goals against the rest of the way. They also signed William Agada and Erik Thommy in the summer window. Agada appeared in just 12 games, but ended up leading the team with 8 goals, tied with Russell. Thommy’s addition to the midfield was important, as he added three goals in the same number of games. Together they brought life back to a stagnant offense.
Sporting Kansas City finished 6-2-2 in those final three months.
Here’s a look at Sporting Kansas City’s xGD over the past two seasons. In reality, the team was starting to decline last year, but you can see they reached new lows at the beginning of 2022. Through July, the team never had a 3 game stretch averaging positive xGD or actual goal difference.
But the comeback appears real, and in line with performances from early 2021. Problem solved?
Let’s first take stock of the offseason’s ins and outs.
Center back Nicolas Isimat-Mirin and defensive mid Uri Rosell were the two key departures. Rosell was a failed resigning. Isimat-Mirin failed to ultimately impress in two years and 41 games.
Replacing them are two promising transfers. Nemanja Rodoja comes with significant experience in La Liga and will command the defensive midfield. This is a key addition, as it will also free up Remi Walter to play a more expanded midfield role.
The other key acquisition was Tim Leibold from Hamburg in Bundesliga.2 who will shore up the left back position.
It doesn’t count as an addition to the roster, but Designated Player Alan Pulido missed the entire 2022, and will return to a lead role in the offense. In his years at Guadalajara and Sporting he has scored 48 goals in 130 games. If he can stay healthy and achieve that form, the Kansas City attack will also return to form.
These two defensive additions indicate that Peter Vermes may not fully trust that defensive performance at the end of the season. Conversely, the lack of offseason additions for the offense, indicates he like what he has with Pulido, Agara, Russell, Salloi, and Thommy challenging the opponents’ goal. If they all play to their full potential, it’s a scary group.
There are a number of reasons to believe Sporting Kansas City will climb back into the playoffs in 2023. But a lot of that belief rests on the final 10 games of 2022. If their defense falls back to the earlier form, no amount of offense will save them, and we’ll be wondering what happened to one of the most consistent franchises in the league.
St. Louis city - CITY CITY CITY CITY
By Kieran Doyle
We get it, you capitalize CITY (editors note: we are never doing this). St. Louis city are the newest expansion member heading into the 2023 MLS season, and it’s pretty safe to say they’re taking a different approach than expansion franchises past. Now, before we get into the nitty gritty of their roster build and what I expect might happen I’ll put down some fairly big caveats. Only eight of STL’s have any MLS experience, and the majority of them profile as back ups or low minutes players. Of the remaining roster, much of it joins from Scandinavia or lower German divisions, teams I don’t really find myself watching much. So you're left with data and Wyscout fraudulence on my behalf. Enjoy.
St. Louis city SC 2
Luckily for us, we have NextPro data! We can look at a lot of the guys St. Louis pre-signed for their inaugural MLSNP season, with the acknowledgement that it’s adults playing in a league they don’t care about against kids who really care. Make of it what you will.
So what do we see? Well, first off, Aziel Jackson, led the entire league in xG+xA! He did that for Minnesota, but still, that’s nice. We’ve seen other guys like Jacen Russel-Rowe at Columbus turn crazy NextPro numbers into good MLS production already, so this is a nice place to be. After that it’s somewhat of a morass of uninteresting production? Celio Pompeu with 0.44 xG+xA per 96, Max Schneider at 0.35. Maybe the team pops? Unfortunately, not really. +10 xGD in 24 matches for half an MLS first team and half MLS trialists, more or less, is somewhat lackluster. On the g+ side, Aziel Jackson still pops, after that the one to look at is Max Schneider. +0.11 g+ above average per 96 from defensive midfield is nothing to scoff at.
So what does this all mean? Let’s make some assumptions. If the average NextPro player is a replacement level player in MLS (seems fair, if an MLS team had to add a replacement player to sit on the bench tomorrow, it would be some random NextPro kid), we can look at the difference between g+ above average values in MLS and compare them to above replacement values, and use that difference to discount the STL NextPro data at an MLS standard. This conversion factor, if you will, varies by position but is something like 0.1 g+ per 96. Here is the results of that below. G+ is not impressed.
| Player | Position | Minutes | g+ Next Pro | g+ MLS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Klauss | ST | 232 | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| Max Schneider | DM | 1790 | 0.11 | -0.01 |
| Celio Martins | W | 2013 | 0.07 | -0.05 |
| Eduard Löwen | CB | 58 | 0.05 | -0.07 |
| Akil Watts | DM | 2248 | 0.04 | -0.08 |
| Kyle Hiebert | CB | 2370 | 0.03 | -0.09 |
| Caden Glover | ST | 28 | 0.02 | -0.1 |
| Selmir Pidro | FB | 174 | -0.04 | -0.16 |
| Joshua Yaro | CB | 2106 | -0.05 | -0.17 |
| Tomas Ostrak | W | 321 | -0.05 | -0.17 |
| Isak Jensen | W | 133 | -0.24 | -0.36 |
No DPs, no Problem
St. Louis are taking a different approach to roster building. As the diligent Moneyball and Soccernomics readers among us have noted, a very large portion of your league position is determined by your wage budget. In MLS, this is obviously kind of weird. Toronto FC have the highest wage bill, but two thirds of that comes from two dudes. Do two players decide 75% of your league position? I certainly hope not based on last year. So, is it actually worth splurging on DPs? Lutz Pfannenstiel has decided the answer is no. Joao Klauss and Eduard Lowen are both registered as designated players, but both are likely only there due to their transfer fees. After that, Tim Parker may or may not be a TAM player depending how much in wages Houston took back, and Roman Burki is almost certainly TAM. And after that… ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
St. Louis will almost certainly be the lowest payroll in the league. Luckily for them, it doesn’t really matter. Take our friend Steve Fenn (@stathunting)’s plot on MLS wage expenditure. Of the top five spenders, only two of them made the playoffs. Of the bottom 12, eight made the playoffs. Smart spending matters more than spending.
Press and Possess?
Going into writing this, I was certain to write about how the Red Bull coach with a German front office and a low budget was going to lean into it tactically and play a lot of launch and squish. That really just isn’t the case. Now, ideally, this is where I’d go watch some preseason games to see what’s going on, but alas that isn’t possible for us sickos this year, so we’re stuck with Next Pro and data. Pfannenstiel and the rest of the front office have said Hoffenheim a lot when describing the goals and styles of the team, which is reasonable when your star DP and director of football come from there. For those of us who know our Bundesliga lore, Hoffenheim are the fun middle ground of not forsaking all of their possession ideas to sell out the press. This seems pretty aligned with STL’s Next Pro profile.
St. Louis were 8th in fouls, generally the sign of an aggressive counter press. They conceded the fewest number of shots in the entire league, but had the highest xG/shot conceded, a huge hallmark of aggressive presses. You can take the coach out of Red Bull, but you can’t take the Red Bull out of the coach. In possession though, it is pretty distinctly not Red Bullian. City hit the fewest long balls in the entirety of Next Pro. I don’t really expect that to persist against better opposition who are generally much better in the press, but it’s a clear sign of intent. At the same time, they had the lowest pass completion percentage - so clearly there is some speculative attacking passing going on, whether that’s crossing or homerun through balls. They had the second most shots taken at nearly 17 a match, but on by far the lowest xG/shot for. I largely find these metrics conflicting, though illuminating of why g+ hates them. Hitting home run balls but not getting good chances out of it and settling for long shots isn’t a great look, but I’m not sure that will carry over with a full first team. They are also dropping guys like Vassilev and Aziel Jackson into DM of a 4-2-3-1 during preseason while their top DM Blom is out injured, which is either grasping for solutions are surprisingly cavalier.
In sum, I don’t know. I think City will probably try and play, but if it goes poorly there is always the back up of going full long ball and press. Do I think they’ll be good? It seems unlikely, but if your talent is coherent with your coach and your coach is coherent with your FO, it’s very much possible. Either way, we’ll be watching.