2023 Season Previews: Austin, Vancouver, Montreal
/We’re rolling out 2023 MLS Season previews ahead of the regular season that kicks off on Saturday, February 25. You can find all of them here!
Reyn’d in by xG - an Austin FC Story
Hello Austin fans, it is I, your favourite team hater. Author of tweets such as “SCOREBOARD”, and “Dread it, run from it, the xG arrives all the same.” You remember me. I hope you’re all well. I’m here today to talk about your beloved Austin FC and their 2023 hopes, shall we?
2022 was a lot of fun, putting the numbers aside, deep playoff run, lots of marquee results, big moments. To bring the numbers back, it was kinda all fake. Austin put up a +16 GD on a -6 xGD, as far as the ASA dataset is concerned that’s the 4th biggest overperformance of all time, and crucially a very different kind of overperformance than the three ahead of it. The three teams with bigger differences (TFC/ATL 2017, PHI 2022) all turned already good expected goals differences into amazing ones. Austin had the same expected goal difference as like, Vancouver. So let’s see what we can expect will and won’t carry over into 2023.
Brad Stuver is real
About four goals of Austin’s near 22 goal over performance came down to goalkeeping. Stuver conceded 41 from a post shot xG of 45, more or less exactly in line with his performance in 2021. Now, GK xG data is just so noisy and unpredictable, but there’s a few things that help him in sustaining that level of performance. He is clearly an excellent penalty saver, his heroics in the playoffs were one of the highlights of the season, and that has been real signal for his entire career. Stuver is four of 11 saved in open play since 2016, add in three out of four in a shootout and you’re at seven saved from 15 taken. Not too shabby. Stuver is also a pro-active goalkeeper with a decent amount of shot suppression, with his above league average claiming and sweeping g+. He also just makes comparatively very few errors. A lot of xG underperformance just comes from letting in stinkers, Stuver doesn’t. It helps!
All this to say, I think the defensive stuff is real.
The goal scoring… is not
Austin blew their xG out of the water by 18 goals last year. 18! A very large part of that is Mr. Driussi, outscoring his xG by 8. This is usually the part where @ElVerdeFan1987 replies to my tweet with “You idiot, he’s just a good finisher, look how good he puts it in the top corner.” Well, we can measure that. Based on our post shot model, which factors in all the things that go into pre-shot xG (distance, angle, situation etc.) it also factors where in the net it goes, you can find it under xPlace in the interactive tables. Driussi has an xPlace of about two. I’ll be nice and give it you that it’ll stay that way forever. That’s still six goals of just total RNG. Now, Driussi is still elite, his 18 expected goal contributions was still 5th best in the entire league - you can expect best XI or close to output, just maybe not MVP output.
What about the other guys? Nobody really destroyed their xG in a way that so obviously sticks out, it’s just that everyone beat it. After Driussi, the next seven highest xG overperformers combine for 10 goals of overperformance. It’s not much, but there are just as many seasons where those same seven players swing the other way and go 10 goals of underperformance.
So what about 2023?
Okay, yes, fair question. The unfortunate answer is that your favourite hater, remains a hater.
Austin’s biggest issue in 2022 was that they had an exact amount of zero, 0, nil, nada, secondary scoring and creation threat. The team was desperate for Rigoni to be a foil to Driussi and really provide some attacking balance and there was just absolutely nothing there (seriously, Twitter search Matt Doyle’s timeline + Rigoni for a God tier lowlights compilation). I expected infinite money Austin to move off of him and go get somebody good this winter, but alas they did not. I thought Rigoni might be a neat deal when it first happened, so maybe there’s a sense of giving him a preseason and some time before doing something in the summer window. They added Gyasi Zardes, who is maybe not very good anymore, in theory to be a focal point and finish off some of Driussi’s creative work, but Zardes has never really been a connect and do stuff for other’s guy. He’s also in major decline. Check out this plot from Paul Harvey. This is a plot of Zardes’ g+ ELO over the last 3 seasons. ELO is like a ranking system, play well against better people and you do better than if you beat up on the Chicago Fire type deal. Just not the trendline you really want to see.
Aside from that, Austin spent a weird amount of resources on defenders. Adam Lundkvist comes in from Houston for not insignificant allocation money. Houston folks seem not upset to see him go. They also added Finnish defender Leo Vaisanen and not Finnish defender Amro Tarek. I do not know anything about Vaisanen other than he has played a lot for bad teams in not good leagues, but Austin were extraordinarily thin at both fullback spots last year (though they have a looooot of CBs now, keep an eye out for a trade), so as depth moves you can squint and accept these moves.
What to expect?
Probably a healthy amount of regression, but still being competitive. Development is not a linear pathway, and the fun you had last season was real. I don’t think Austin have made any Atlanta Hawks-ian future knee capping ultra win now trades or signings off the back of a somewhat flukey conference finals, which is honestly a good thing. I would bet Rigoni will be better and having some more reliable, if fading, shot getting in Zardes will help. Add some defensive depth at fullback. Austin will be fine. Fine is a good place to be. Or maybe Claudio Reyna blackmailed me to be this nice :)
The Vancouver Whitecaps - Vite for Pedro
After a mad dash run by head coach/resident mad scientist Vanni Sartini snuck the Vancouver Whitecaps into the 2021 playoffs through the backest of backdoors, 2022 was supposed to be the year of building and progress. Alas, it was not. The ‘Caps slipped to 9th in the West, a mere 4 points out of the playoffs, but 6 behind their 2021 tally. Finishing with a virtually identical expected goal difference (with a somewhat different composition) doesn’t feel like progress. However, 2023 might be the year it starts to click.**
**I’ve been saying this for like 3 years so who knows really
Save the ball I’m literally begging you
Vancouver finished 2022 with an expected goal difference of something like -10, depending on whose computer you ask. Their actual goal difference was -17. Sometimes this is noise, you know, dudes hit top corners, freak amount of penalties, own goals. This isn’t noise. Starting goalkeeper duo of Cody Cropper and Thomas Hasal put up a combined 10 goals of post shot xG underperformance, good for 2nd and 10th worst in the league. That’s a lot. Now, -7 isn’t exactly a goal difference that is going to win you the league - Seattle missed the playoffs on +1, but 10 goals in the hole every season is a pretty steep mountain to climb. The addition of an even league average goalkeeper is critical to the ‘Caps 2023 season. Say yo-hei to Yohei Takaoka, joining from J-League side Yokohama F. Marinos. No idea if he’s good, but he couldn’t be a downgrade, right?
The Drought is Cord-over
Vancouver’s attack was pretty weird last year. If you look at the metrics that are broadly predictive of attacking juice but aren’t in themselves attacking juice, the ‘Caps are a firmly mid-table attack. According to the Opta data via FBRef, they ranked 15th in progressive passes, 14th in open play non-cross passes into the box, 19th in passes into the final third. It’s not great, but it’s not too ugly. But the shot metrics? Oh dear. Third bottom in xGF, fifth worst shot total, bottom five in xG/shot, no player above 10 xG for the season. That’s bad.
Well what’s the disconnect? A lot of it comes out of striker play, but also out of the profile of their secondary attackers. Gauld is good. Ball progression plus shot and shot creation output. Cavallini actually had a not terrible 2022, not DP level production but a respectable 0.45 xG+xA per 96, but exactly 0% of it is self created. You’re not bringing that dude back on a DP deal. White doesn’t give you enough shot output either. The real kicker is whoever the third guy is. Deiber and Dajome just have not been it, low shot output (4th and 10th percentile respectively for shots at their position). Vite has shown flashes, but is much more third-midfielder-bursting-forward type than he is shot getting winger. So you really need your striker to do stuff on their own sometimes.
Enter Sergio Cordova, stage left. It’s not done but it’s “done” enough I’m just going to put it in. On the face of it, 9 G+1 A on 12 xG+xA in 2500 minutes is not a lot to write home about. Some caveats: RSL smelled like dirty feet last year and considered attacking to be déclassé - so that output is actually quite good? Cordova profiles as a last line, CB pinning, cross attacker (he is quite good at this), but also has enough self creation juice that I think you can get away with the winger profiles Vancouver has underneath him.
The Strategic Value of High Ground
Vancouver somewhat have the bones of an actually good defensive unit - they were bottom five in MLS in xG/shot allowed, a firmly midtable xG conceded. If you filter the interactive tables on the site, you can see they were midtable for g+ passing and receiving allowed in their penalty area as well. If you split the season at July 1, which is vaguely where the Whitecaps started to just defend and try to grind games down a little bit more, they slide all the way into being about a top 10 defense.
They added Mathias Laborda, a Uruguayan CB who can also slot in at fullback, who seems to be getting good reviews in preseason. Andres Cubas is a single man ball winning machine, and perhaps noteworthily, Vancouver have moved away from mostly back 3’s to the fabled 4-3-2-1 Christmas tree in preseason. Now, reading the tea leaves of pre-season tactical choices is folly, BUT - 4-3-2-1 gets all your best players on the field, and hides a lot of weaknesses. Gressel as a winger isn’t the one, Gressel as a fullback is great but he hates playing there. Gressel as an 8 in a flat 3 who can flair wide and do all the things he likes to do in possession AND do the things he’s good at? Match made in heaven. Cubas is a little freer to go blow stuff up. Your fullbacks have a lot of natural cover in wide areas if they choose to roam. It sorta makes sense, at least defensively. I’m not sure this team will ever get to being an elite attack, but we’ve seen elite success in MLS look like solid defending with just enough attacking juice to get by.
Either way, curious to see how it goes is probably a good place to be.
CF Montréal - Come one, Kamal
2022 was the year of almost for CF Montreal. They almost won the Supporter’s Shield, just two points off top runners LAFC and Philadelphia Union. They were a Sean Johnson mega performance away from walking into the Eastern Conference Finals. Unfortunately, nobody remembers almost.
Djordje Mihailovic made his big money move to AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands, Alistair Johnston is endearing himself to those of a Glaswegian persuasion, child phenom Ismael Kone is bossing it in the Championship, Joaquin Torres has made his way down the coast to the Philadelphia Union, and the mastermind of it all in Wilfriend Nancy is off to Columbus. Lots of change! Montreal’s fate in the 2023 season really falls into three main questions:
Note: I’m only going to talk about Losada’s soccer from his time at DC, but it is important to note what he was let go for during his time there. That story is available here.
Can they maintain their defensive identity?
Make no bones about it, CF Montreal made their money as a defensive team with killer ability in transition. Here’s what I wrote in the 2022 season preview:
“Montreal made their money as a solid defensive team last season, and look poised to do so again in 2022. After hitting big with the acquisition of Kamal Miller, the front office splashed the cash on Alistair Johnston to put together two thirds of the best back line in CONCACAF (time for CanadianSoccerAnalysis.com). While I could wax lyrical about the individual defensive qualities of each of the centerbacks, or the ability of Victor Wanyama and Samuel Piette to break up enemy attacks, the real benefit of CF Montreal comes from their defensive cohesion as a unit.”
From our friends at Second Spectrum, the defensive shape goes crazy. 5-2-3 to press, 5-3-2 to defend, Djordje to the guy making it work both ways.
Let’s compare that to Mr. Losada’s defensive structure in DC.
The same! This is good. Maintaining the same defensive identity, even if the personnel is different, really really matters. Now, Losada is decidedly more pressy than Nancy, and by decidedly I mean that in 2021, Losada’s last full season coaching, DCU ranked 6th in total attacking third pressures, CF Montreal ranked last. Now, do I think this is a good idea? Probably not. Wanyama is old and kinda mobility limited, but is extremely adept at defending when he doesn’t have to cover lots of ground. Piette is the same dude, but doesn’t have age as an excuse, he’s just kind of slow. Add in that a big part of the attacking juice you got last year was having space to transition into, I think trying to press really high is the wrong call.
If I’m playing Devil’s Advocate, George Campbell is super rangey athletically and Aaron Herrera gives them a lot over ZBG, a back 3 of Kamal (who I am shocked wasn’t sold after a pretty exceptional World Cup) - Rudy/Waterman - Campbell with g+ darling Lassi Lappalainen and Aaron Herrera doing a lot of the shuttling-out-to-fullback-to-press work has a pretty high ceiling.
Striker, Striker, wherefore art thou Striker?
Montreal got legitimate attacking production out of exactly six players in the attacking band in 2022: Romell Quioto, Djordje Mihailovic, Kei Kamara, Mason Toye, Matko Miljevic, and Joaquin Torres. Djordje is gone. Kei Kamara has already demanded a trade. Torres now plays for the Union. That leaves you Quioto, Toye, and Miljevic. Well, Quioto is now 31 and it would appear the team is maybe not going to play super transitionally. Mason Toye has ligaments made of twizzlers and bones made of gingerbread. Miljevic is really really interesting (though we just found out he will be missing a number of months through surgery), and I think if the team plays fairly similarly in terms of the front three composition, he is the most obvious Djordje replacement. The problem, much like last year, is that you just don’t have that second guy after Quioto, especially if Kamara is actually going. Add in a healthy amount of age related decline and I think there’s some pretty big goals questions.
Now, Montreal have the GDP of a small nation in transfer money sitting in Saputo’s pocket. Maybe he puts into making more milk or whatever, but maybe he goes and stumbles upon an interesting striker at Bologna to move money between his pockets or something. They added Jules Anthony Vilsaint from Antwerp’s academy, so maybe he’s interesting, or maybe he just shares an agent with half the team already.
Arreter la ballon s’il vous plait
Montreal popped off a +19 xGD in 2022 with a mild +13 GD. Virtually all of that underperformance came in goal as Sebastien Breza dropped a Vancouver-ian or FC Cincinnati pre 2022 level GK howler season. I could sit here and talk about how much of a difference this makes to the team and how Breza is young and maybe improve blah blah blah. No. Go get a real goalkeeper, rapidement. For starters, play Pantemis, who is just better at basically everything, though maybe not still good. Then, maybe then, CF Montreal have a shot at being legitimately good again in 2023.
