2023 MLS Analytics Survey

/
2023 MLS Analytics Survey

Every year, we update the State of MLS Analytics by putting teams into tiers based upon how many analytics staff they have. However, the number of analytics staff members doesn’t necessarily say anything about the quality of work that a club is producing or if analytics is being incorporated into team decision making. And unfortunately, we can never really know what is going on inside a club’s analytics department. This year, though, we decided to do the best we could to get behind the scenes and asked club analytics staff for their input.

Read More

State of MLS Analytics: May 2023

/
State of MLS Analytics: May 2023

Over the last few years, analytics in MLS has been turned on its head. Five years ago, if a team had one person “doing analytics,” it was a big deal. Now, questions are asked if a club doesn’t - and it is not uncommon for clubs to have multiple people on staff. The Tiers of MLS Analytics are now based upon the number of full time analytics staff members a club employs.

Read More

Goals Subtracted (g-): Set piece edition

/

This past summer we introduced a framework for evaluating the individual contributions of defenders, goals subtracted (g-). We concluded that–while it was a tricky problem, and not one that was obviously made easier even with tracking data–the framework had potential to help control for otherwise unmitigated interrupting g+ value. We observed players on bad defensive teams getting a lot of interrupting value largely because the ball is coming at them all the time, and g- hinted that it might be able to control for this. That article was about measuring open-play defending, and this article is about measuring set-piece defending. If you are unfamiliar with goals added (g+), I would start here with our primer.

Read More

Replication Project: Are shots from free kicks useless or good?

/
Replication Project: Are shots from free kicks useless or good?

Way back in 2011 a somewhat remarkable thing occurred in the nascent soccer analytics blogosphere. On May 20, Chris Anderson posted the provocatively titled “The Uselessness of Free Kicks in the Premier League,” which argued that since free kicks are rare and not often converted they are “not particularly effective devices for scoring in the Premier League”. A few weeks later, Anderson lent space on his own blog, Soccer by the Numbers, to Ian Graham, now the outgoing Director of Research at Liverpool but then at Decision Technology, to argue the opposite. “Why Shots From Free Kicks Are A Good Idea, Or At Least Not A Bad One” showed that while free kick shots rarely result in a goal, the correct comparison is to other shots outside of the box. In that comparison, free kick shots are about twice as valuable as open play shots from outside the box. So with an additional decade of data, have things changed since then using MLS data and who was right?

Read More

2023 Season Preview - San Jose Earthquakes

/

If you are a San Jose Earthquakes fan, your neck is still recovering from the whiplash of last season (yeah, and probably from that Atlanta United game, but these are still preseason previews, right?). 

If you are not a fan, then you are probably not very aware of all the comings and goings last year of people not named Matias Almeyda. Chofis, the top goalscorer from 2021? Gone mid-season. Francisco Calvo, the most entertaining player in MLS this side of Nouhou Tolo? Gone mid-season. Marcos Lopez, the U-22 player trying to help Peru get that last World Cup spot? Gone mid-season. At least they got a bit of money back for Calvo and Lopez.

Read More

2023 Season Previews: Real Salt Lake, New England Revolution, Chicago Fire

/
2023 Season Previews: Real Salt Lake, New England Revolution, Chicago Fire

In 2022, Real Salt Lake was picked by by nine of 10 MLS pundits to finish in the 10-12 range. These spots are reserved for teams who are unexciting and lack top end talent. 13th-15th are reserved for spectacular disasters, while the rest are for teams that really could be special (though a few still become spectacular disasters). RSL beat expectations and finished 7th.

Read More