USMNT Match (Friendly) Preview: US vs. Denmark

by Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

I could spend about 2,000 words attempting to express my disdain for MLSsoccer.com's website changes and their "cleaning up" of the chalkboard data from previous years. It's not enough to take it down from MLS matches, they're also doing it for all international games too. Which, frankly sucks. Because all the cool things that I would attempt to do in a preview is now pretty limited.

Let's talk about things that are somewhat relevant to this match and being that things are about to get pretty random, let's bulletize it.

• Denmark has an ELO of 1734, ranking them 28th in the world according to ELO.net

The US has played 10 matches against foes with an ELO between 1700 and 1800 in the last 24 months. The most closely comparable according to their scores and rank was Azerbaijan whom the Yanks played just before the World Cup. The US dominated on shots with a 21-9 advantage with 11 of those 21 coming from inside the 18. Not sure if that gives us any real insight to Denmark but it's an interesting thought.

• If you haven't heard, some Danish magazine is trying to facilitate the nickname of 'Lord' Nicklas Bendtner into actually being just that by purchasing land in his name.

This is just weird and I only wanted to make mention of it rather than actually dedicate a paragraph to it. Europeans are weird.

• Aside from Nick Rimando who is 35, Clint Dempsey is the oldest field player called into this team at 32.

Yes, Dempsey was injured and won't be out on the pitch but I have been wanting to write about Clint Dempsey and his greatness in relation to the USMNT and that opportunity will not continue to evade me.

Dempsey won't be around forever. Donovan's retirement from MLS and Beasley's retirement from international duty is a nasty foreboding little balloon tied around Deuce's wrist reminding me of the inevitability of his departure. Enjoy him while he lasts, America.

• Watch out for Christian Eriksen; he'll be the best player on the pitch against the US

Sick nutmeg

Sick free kick

And sick little fancy pass...

Eriksen is a walking highlight package that doesn't just make fantastic plays that are exciting and fun, they translate to meaningful events on the pitch. Squawka ranks him as a top-10 player by their unique brand of rankings and is fixed in the top-five in key passes, shots created, and shots taken.

----

Denmark is a weird and rather confusing team. On one hand they're not a top European team and they sit rather mediocre on the world scale. However, they have a world class player that is just coming into his prime and posses all the pieces to make the rest of Europe rather uncomfortable. They might not be highly rated but they've got the right pieces to accent the inherent flaws within the US system as it stands.

Dempsey being gone complicates things and maybe forces Jurgen Klinsmann's hand, previewing off how this roster may look in two years. I'm not going to try and "guess" at a starting line-up because that's stupid (and I would fail miserably). Maybe he goes with one striker, maybe he goes with two. Maybe he goes with Yedlin in an attacking position, maybe Gyasi Zardes starts out wide again. The possibilities are many, and your ideas about who he sends out are as good as mine.

The only three things that I want see are:

- Denmark with less than five shots inside the 18 yard box.

- The USMNT with more than five shots inside the 18 yard box.

- The USMNT beating Denmark in shot ratio.

Call me stat obsessed, call me single-minded, call me naive. I believe these things matter and will go a long way to helping the US become a better team. Not to mention it'll also giving us some positive indicators that this might actually be a competent club both in attacking and on the defensive side of the ball.

We find out at 3pm Eastern Time.

The State of the Men's National Soccer Team: An ELO story

by Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

Based on recent results, it’s not surprising that the US Men’s National Team has dropped in the FIFA World Rankings. There were a lot of reasons to expect it, and to act surprised is bit like thinking Sarah Chalke will ever find another sustainable leading role or for Fox to be patient in the ratings game (sorry on both accounts, Backstrom fans). Sure it’s a bit disappointing (back to the USMNT), and you want to see them continue to do well. But to be shocked about it, or to act as if it’s the downturn of the organization, is a bit melodramatic.

If you look at the last two years of US soccer through the eyes of ELO, it helps give us context for the "rise and fall" of the USMNT. Much of their ELO was fueled by an extremely strong finish to their World Cup qualifying, winning the 2013 Gold cup, a win against Ghana, and then a tie with Portugal in the World Cup. Altogether it saw them boost their point total from a measly 1730 in late March 2013 to peak at 1859 just before their loss to Germany in the World Cup group stage a year and change later.

Since being knocked out of the World Cup, the US has felt the frustration of five defeats in seven matches. Despite the eyesore on the field, the team has only lost six spots and 34 points according to ELO. This may not cool off the men and women armed with pitchforks and a general narrative about pandemonium in the USMNT, but it should ease our minds a little. And that drop has as much to do with other teams’ performances as it does with the US performance. Good runs from Croatia, Mexico, Belgium and Costa Rica over the past year have helped to push the US down the rankings.

For some variety in numbers, we also have the Soccer Power Index (SPI )—created by FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver—where you’ll spot the US ranked 22nd overall with 1.99 expected goals for and 0.96 expected goals against. These figures are extremely similar to the USMNT’s 2.00 expected goals for and 1.00 expected goals against during the World Cup, indicating that this year’s results are not some ominous cloud hanging over our boys, foreshadowing future ruin.

I would expect that with this pair of international matches against Denmark and Switzerland you'll start seeing more of the team that we saw just prior to the World Cup, and with a good Gold Cup performance, they'll be back in a very strong world position.

The Weekend Kickoff: Philadelphia vs FC Dallas

by Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

Are you ready for the weekend? Time to finish up those reports, take out the trash at your desk, and start up the stream. I'm not about to start singing Rebecca Black but I am super excited about MLS having Friday night matches. Let's talk a little bit about the game tonight and then what's on tap for the rest of the weekend.

The Burn go to Chester in a match-up of two teams that seem to always be underrated by journalists and pundits alike. The Union hope to be fitted for their glass slippers while Dallas looks to graduate from their carriage turning into a pumpkin. Grab some popcorn; this should be a good one.

Philadelphia Union:

The Union are a team that has a national narrative that seems to constantly skew towards being them being average rather than a club that seems one or two steps away from being a top club in the East. Just always a shot short defensively or on the attack.

A team that is lead by the veteran prowess of Sebastian Le Toux, the tenacity of Conor Casey and the quiet Cristian Maidana, this is a team that has no superstars but may have a budding one in Venezuelan Fernando Aristeguieta, who ranks 10th in expected goals in this early season.

Their team defense over the past few seasons has ranged between bad-to-terrible, but has shown improvement so far in a small sample size. They currently rank fifth in the league and with it are looking to progress from the bottom of the table defensive performances in back-to-back seasons.

FC Dallas:

One of the most underrated defensive teams over the last few years is FC Dallas. A partnership of Matt Hedges and Zach Lloyd has shown more than promise and did the near impossible last fall in holding the Sounders to a lone goal over 180 minutes, a random Ozzie Alonso header, during the post-season.

Dallas is a team that, much like Philadelphia Union, seemed just one great moment away from facing the LA Galaxy in the Western Conference finals. That moment may have never come last year but much of the roster is returned (72% of the total minutes) and with a healthy Mauro Diaz they may just stand as a dark horse contender for the MLS Cup.

MLS FAntasy perspective:

Blas Perez has been great in this early season. He's a dominant and physical forward that has compiled the second most fantasy points to date on the back of his three goals scored. While he is rocking our "Mr. Luck" title sitting +1.75 goals minus expected goals, he's still compiled the 5th highest expected goals. I fully expect he's going to continue getting these scoring opportunities.

Chris Seitz has possibly been the surprise of the season as we head into week three as the top keeper in MLS fantasy. This is on the heels of Dallas acquiring Dan Kennedy in the off-season. His defense has done a dynamite job of limiting scoring opportunities, something they did exceptionally well the past two seasons.

Aristeguieta as previously mentioned sits 10th in MLS with expected goals and while Perez has been on the lucky side of things, Aristeguieta has been too. He has great providers too but he's going up against a staunch defense that has a history of being good and in their home environment that tends to give the opponent an advantage. Something to consider.

The weekend match-ups:

Montreal Impact (0.07) @ New England (-1.38)

New England hasn't been good this season and is still missing Jones while Montreal has surprised some people with their early-season success.

New York City (0.89) @ Colorado Rapids (-1.97)

NYC may just be a legit team and the Rapids are perhaps the worst club in MLS. We may find out at altitude in Commerce City.

Vancouver Whitecaps (0.18) @ Orlando City (0.15)

This could be the best game on the docket. 

Portland Timbers (0.30) @ Sporting Kansas City (0.91)

Another tough gambit for Caleb Porter and company. The game favors SKC who is still putting up fantastic numbers.

Houston Dynamo (-0.55) @ LA Galaxy (0.95)

A team that has gotten a bit lucky early vs the defending champs. It will be interesting to see where the teams land with the luck settles.

DC United (-0.07) @ New York Red Bulls (-2.09)

It's hard to try and predict anything when two rivals play, but NYRB needs BWP to show up this match.

Chicago Fire (-1.08) @ San Jose Earthquakes (-0.81)

Quakes might not be terrible, while the Fire probably are.

*number in parentheses is our expected goal differential in even game states

Darlington Nagbe may have finally arrived

A few days ago, Matt Doyle (aka the Armchair Analyst) called our attention once again to the amazing things that Darlington Nagbe does with a soccer ball.

Nagbe has the ability to do the sorts of things that great players often do. Those miraculous moments that freeze time and leave you wonder struck. Last year it seemed like there were fewer of those moments than in years past. But as Doyle pointed, though it's early, Nagbe looks to be headed in the right direction. 

Average Timber player Usage Rate 2013-2015 was roughly nine percent

By raw usage, he looks the same as always (about 10.5%). Usage is measured in touches divided by team touches. But as a proportion, his touches have led to either him taking more shots or his teammates taking more shots. So while he's touching the ball about as much, his touches are more dangerous.

Looking at the shots he creates per pass, we really see the meat and potatoes of Nagbe's growth and influence. In 2014, his shots created (shots + key passes) represented just 2.4 percent of his total passes. Now, we're seeing that ratio up closer to eight percent. This is pretty significant if you look at the the company he's enters. He is contributing to the attack thus far in 2015 at a Graham Zusi/Federico Higuian level, rather than hanging around in Harry Shipp/Dillon Powers.

This isn't to say that Shipp or Powers aren't good players. They are, and the majority of MLS teams would been keen to get their hands on either of them, but they aren't great, game-changing talents. This feels like the first time Nagbe's numbers actually corroborate the skill that he shows on a weekly basis out on the pitch. With all the requisite warnings about sample size, it might just be that Nagbe is finally entering into that next tier of player, a moment that has been much anticpated by many Timbers fans and pundits a like.

MLS CBA has Owners seeking “League of Rights”

By Mike Fotopoulos (@irishoutsider)

The winter of our discontent is over. MLS Season 20 is here and the new CBA is in the books. While we will likely have to wait for most of the details and watch new rules inevitably “reveal” themselves, there is a lot to learn here. The process has given us another look into the league’s overall goals, and more importantly, the owners’ priorities. 

The results have been largely disappointing. If you are an idealist, this is a compromise delivering more of the same, and maybe just a little bit more on top. The cap will increase 7% a year for five years, topping out at about $4.2M in 2019. DP slots remain unchanged, though the cap hit will likely increase to remain a fixed % of the overall cap. Finally, free agency arrives for players 28 and up, with at least eight seasons of MLS service time. Those of us looking for a utopian MLS “letting the bull run,” will need to keep dreaming.

The owners’ position here and their motivations all seem to point in the same direction, maximizing the value of the franchises. This is accomplished primarily by increasing sponsorship and broadcast revenues while keeping labor costs down. These streams are crowding out gameday revenues as the league’s primary source of income. Both also have the potential to grow further and faster than traditional staples like tickets sales and merchandising. As a “brand,” the league has an attractive business model here, with more likely suitors lining up for a piece of the action. These new potential markets aren’t viable without the ROI possibilities of a growing media property. 

For the average American sports fan, the value of the league is primarily governed by its star power, not the rank and file. Take a look at any MLS advertising and they are taking pages right out of the NBA / NHL playbook. Dempsey! Bradley! MLS ON ESPN! Talented unknowns on global average salaries aren’t going to move the Nielsen meter. To draw a completely unfair comparison, the vast majority of the football viewing world watches Barcelona for Messi and friends and not for the triumph of skillful team counterpressing. Relating this back to MLS, the league needs to save as much of the coming windfalls for “talent.” 

Dempsey (and very likely Beckham) set the precedent here, showing that the owners as a group will pool their resources to bring in a star player. While he can only play for Seattle, he can increase their local gates once or twice a season and pay dividends on future league sponsor / rights deals. Gerrard, Villa, and Kaka, etc follow this trend to varying degrees of league involvement, though the overall goal is the same: create top-line value by signing as few big contracts as needed, the minimum viable dose. Top-heavy rosters may not be optimal in a football sense, but they act as leverage for franchise value.

Under this system, it becomes much clearer why free agency would be a non-starter, especially for owners like RSL’s Dell Loy Hansen. While RSL is a model small-market club, Mr. Hansen’s investment is controlled by the league’s ability to generate a national audience and his ability to field a team with strictly defined costs. Without accusing development efforts as lip service, part of that cost structure is producing homegrown talent at low cost, and retaining that talent efficiently. This also requires keeping existing core players together as long as possible. If Mr. Hansen can also control a youngster’s rights long enough to profit from a foreign transfer, that’s excellent business. Where the CBA has settled on this protects these issues for RSL and clubs with similar views. 

Those that have directly lost the most from this perspective are the once and future journeymen of MLS. The system has them in purgatory for at least the near-term, unable to massively outperform current contracts, and highly unlikely to see stronger offers from outside of the league.  This is the core position taken during the negotiations, and it has to be cut and dry from the owners’ perspective. They don’t have the resources (yet) to consistently improve rosters in the 150-350k range. That money is better spent on the latest shirt-selling import. More optimistically, once a player reaches 28/8 the DP thresholds are now high enough that teams could double up a salary without locking down a slot. Overall, the deal stretches out their clocks more than they would like without serious breakout seasons.

The future is positively blinding for the league if they can maintain the current tack. The potential is there to earn legitimate multiples on their salary costs, and we likely won’t see an equitable split for the players until the stakes get much higher. Owners want to position the league to earn eye-watering broadcast rights, but the current situation will be harder to maintain if they succeed. The main deal with ESPN/FOX resets after eight seasons, so it may actually benefit the owners to have a five-year agreement with the union. While there is a likely future where MLS’ ratings and revenue continue to grow, it would be optimistic to expect this to occur between the TV deals. With that in mind, this may be the last CBA discussed in strict dollar terms versus percents of league wide revenue. 

Major League Soccer has promoted itself as a “League of Choice” for the best players in the world and certainly the best America has to offer. The new CBA lines up with that vision. Even if many of us would like for the league to spread the wealth around a bit more, the strategy is sound. By focusing on the very top of the rosters and locking down on the rest, the league creates value where it wants it most: broadcast rights and franchise value.

2015 MLS Fan Projections

Some weeks ago we put out a survey asking you, the reader, to rank teams in each conference by how you thought they would finish in the regular season. About 130 of you submitted your thoughts, and here they are in some sortable tables!

Results

Eastern Conference

Team	Rank	Top2	Playoffs
NE	2.2	0.715	0.95
TOR	3.3	0.415	0.95
CLB	4.0	0.331	0.85
DCU	4.1	0.223	0.85
ORL	5.1	0.131	0.73
NYCFC	6.1	0.099	0.56
NYRB	6.8	0.046	0.39
CHI	7.0	0.015	0.33
PHI	7.9	0.000	0.23
MTL	8.5	0.031	0.15

Western Conference

Team	Rank	Top2	Playoffs
SEA	1.7	0.863	0.98
LA	2.0	0.794	0.99
SKC	4.8	0.053	0.84
FCD	5.1	0.137	0.69
POR	5.1	0.046	0.74
RSL	5.5	0.053	0.74
VAN	6.9	0.008	0.42
HOU	7.0	0.008	0.34
COL	8.3	0.023	0.16
SJ	8.5	0.015	0.09

Rank is the average projected finish for each team within its conference. Top2 refers to the proportion of readers that ranked that team in the top two, which is important this season as it gives those teams byes in the first round. Playoffs represents the proportion of readers that ranked each team in the top six, which would qualify those teams for the playoffs in 2015.

Fan Demographics

Region	Voters	pct
CA	12	0.12
NY/NJ	12	0.12
WA	10	0.10
ILL/IND/MICH	9	0.09
OR	8	0.08
NE	7	0.07
FL	6	0.06
SOUTH	6	0.06
DC/MA/VA	6	0.06
PA	5	0.05
TX	5	0.05
KAN/MO/IOWA	4	0.04
UT	4	0.04
BC	3	0.03
CO	2	0.02
OH	1	0.01
QBC	1	0.01
ONT	1	0.01

*We only received region codes from 102 of the 131 voters.

I tried to break up regions based somewhat on "local" teams. For example, I would assume voters from Virginia and Maryland are probably D.C. United fans. The lone Iowan and the two Missourians are likely Sporting KC fans. Anyone from New England is going to be a fan of the Revolution, etc. The "SOUTH" includes states in the Southeastern United States that are unaffiliated with any MLS team. 

Though California had the most voters, Seattle still ranked atop the projections. I think it's obvious that Sounders fans were the little shits on their AYSO teams that voted for themselves for team MVP. I'm sure Harrison would agree. Also, WOW. Readers projected Toronto to finish second in the East. Pressure's on you, Jozy. Readers, too, are high on the expansion teams, with a majority believing each of NYCFC and Orlando will make the playoffs. 

ASA 2015 Season Previews. Every daNG one of them!

By Drew Olsen (@drewjolsen)

In preparation for this weekend's games (they're actually happening!), we've been writing two team previews per day for the last two weeks. Going in reverse order of 2014 finish, ASA and our (very) small band of writers have published 20 articles, covering each team's 2014 season, their offseason changes, and their prospects for 2015. If you haven't read them all yet, AND WE KNOW YOU HAVEN'T, then you can catch up here.

Eastern Conference

Chicago Fire by Mike Fotopoulos
Columbus Crew by Harrison Crow
DC United by Jared Young
Montreal Impact by Harrison Crow
New England Revolution by Drew Olsen
New York City FC by Drew Olsen
New York Red Bulls by Harrison Crow
Orlando City by Harrison Crow
Philadelphia Union by Jared Young
Toronto FC by Jason Poon

Western Conference

Colorado Rapids by Harrison Crow
FC Dallas by Jason Poon
Houston Dynamo by Harrison Crow
LA Galaxy by Sean Steffen
Portland Timbers by Drew Olsen
Real Salt Lake by Matthias Kullowatz
San Jose Earthquakes by Tom Worville
Seattle Sounders by Harrison Crow
Sporting Kansas City by Matthias Kullowatz
Vancouver Whitecaps by Drew Olsen

2015 ASA Preview: Orlando City SC

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By Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

Orlando City Soccer Club; a team that has won it all. A team that has seen its share of trophies over a short period of time and accomplished so many impressive feats. Yet, here they are starting anew with no real past. No MLS victories,n o MLS golden boot winners, and no MLS championships. The club has a storied history, it has great (albiet short) history and, yet, all at the same it has no history. This is the life and evolution of the once Austin Aztex and former USL PRO Orlando City grown up and now an expansion team in Major League Soccer as the Orlando City Soccer Club.

Their club is an enigma, and that thought represents the entirety of the season with what lies before them and the many predictions that are being made upon their behalf. Some with swooping claims of cups and glory, yet others with tales of unexpected challenges and a year of transition into an unforgiving league.

Vigorous youth mixed with gritty veterans and all those cute narratives that can be packaged together through the cliché good will is bought and sold around this organization. The question is, even with all the upgraded talent, coming into a tougher league can this club still be among the best?

The Coach

Adrian Heath and his tale is remarkable to me. For those that don't know he was basically hired after a meeting with owner Phil Rawlins in a Newcastle pub and moved his family from England to Texas to coach a team with no name and no pitch, simply trusting Rawlins' dream.

Either that's really stupid or he's just someone that is brilliant at understanding, evaluating and deciphering people. Considering all the talent that he has brought and cycled through Orlando in the last four years, I tend to believe it's the later.

The obvious example of Heath and his ability to deal with talent is the situation of Dom Dwyer. Dwyer was disappointed initially when Sporting loaned him to Orlando City in 2013 as part of the USL-MLS partnership. Dwyer admitted retrospectively to the UK guardian he didn't like the idea of being loaned out but credits the experience as a time growth and that “learned so much, especially from Orlando head coach Adrian Heath”.

Dwyer wasn't the only person that Heath mentored over the years. You could point to Jamaican Dennis Chin, who scored 21 goals in 84 matches for Orlando and was an MVP candidate in 2012. Most recently the example of Heath's work can be found in winger and 2014 USL golden boot winner, Kevin Molino. Many pundits believe that Molino is MLS' newest budding star.

Heath has shown a keen ability to not just mentor talent but put them in logical positions that fit their talents and, at the same time, bolster his schemes. A staunch believer in the 4-3-3 over his time in USL it's very likely that a slight tweak will be in order to facilitate the addition of Ballon d'Or winner Kaká. It's likely that there will be little defensive responsibility on the former world player of the year lending to the idea that Heath might favor a 4-2-3-1.

The Goalkeepers

Donovan Ricketts looks to be the starter early on and MLS pundits will all hail the move. A lot of people are down about Ricketts for goals that he should probably have saved in 2014. They point to routine situations where he has lost his positioning or was slow in identifying movement across the backline. But despite that, our numbers imply that Ricketts has still been pretty good in three out of the four seasons and the two most recent years have some 260 shots involved in them. In 2013 Ricketts won Goalkeeper of the Year, which some say should have gone to Nick Rimando. Our data suggests that Ricketts was well-deserving of the honor. 

The real question is what happens once Tally Hall becomes healthy. Obviously at 37 Ricketts is no spring chicken and this looks like Hall's job for the future. But how will this be handled if Ricketts is still plucking bullets out of the sky and performing when Hall is ready to step back between the pipes?

Furthermore, up until last year our data was pretty certain Hall was a fine starting keeper and at 29 he's about to really start hitting the prime of a goalkeeper's career. It's a big decision and possibly not as easy as it seems.

The Defenders

The Lions were quick to put to use that bang bang allocation cash-ola they get with being an expansion team. The first of many offseason moves was to snag Aurélien Collin from Sporting KC. There are many that have thought the past few years that Collin was among the best defenders in all of MLS, and the numbers lend credence to that thought. He has averaged roughly eight duels won per 90 minutes in back-to-back seasons good for 13th overall in 2013* and 10th in 2014* winning over 50% of his duels in both seasons. But he is also a bit of a card hazard, collecting a total of 15 yellow cards in 2013. Still, he seemed to have scaled back his aggressiveness in 2014 with only two yellows, though this also came with an additional two red cards. His foul ratio also dropped in 2014 from 1.9 in 2013 to 1.5. There were questions last season with Sporting KC defense, so it remains to be seen whether or not he can still be a top-tier defender and anchor a line that is badly in need of support.

I suppose I should throw a sharp little quip about Brek Shea being back at left back, but I really have little opinion on that whole thing. Good for him. He's making some money, doing what he likes and looks to be apart of a team that could be good over the whole of the season. Does he fit at left back? Sure. Should he takes Molino's spot? Nope. Do I think Shea possibly killed Mr. Green in Downton Abbey? Yes, actually, I do.

The Midfielder

I am so interested in Kevin Molino for a few different ones. First his shots attempted have steadily increased each year and with more playing time. Starting off at nearly two shots per 90 minutes played in 2012 and reaching over four shots this past season.

While we didn't have a strong track record for Dom Dwyer, we saw the number of shots that he took during his loan in Orlando carry over to his time at Sporting KC. Obviously this works this way because Dwyer is going to handle the ball and largely hold the responsibility for creating the scoring opportunities.

That said, Adrian Heath has deployed Molino almost as a strike partner for the trio of Corey Hertzog, Chin and Giuseppe Gentile with the way he would make slashing moves into the 18-yard box.

I know everyone is enamored with the idea of Kaká being in MLS and it's cool, it's not a regular thing for this league to attract former Ballon d'Or /World Player of the Year caliber talent, however, I'm not yet certain if I buy him being the same thing that Thierry Henry was for the Red Bulls. I think of him being more of a creator than a goal scorer, and if that's going to be the case the team is going to depend very much upon the talents of whoever ends up with the starting striker job.

Speaking of which...
 

The Striker

I think it's really interesting the comparison between young designated player and probable starting striker Bryan Róchez and “failed” New England designated player, Jerry Bengtson. I say failed with quotes because I'm not personally of the belief that you can label anything a failure without giving it at least a full season of minutes (3,060). Instead he got 2,200 minutes across three seasons, which in turn saw only a paltry four goals created.

However, our data suggests that Bengtson actually didn't fair as poorly as the surface numbers suggest. Expected goals has him for a total of nearly nine goals with a shot leverage of 0.152. These are still not great numbers from a striker but far from the “failed” narrative gets paraded around.

Prior to arriving in MLS, Bengtson was the star striker of C.D. Motagua in Honduras making appearances in the CONCACAF Champions League and scoring a total of 26 goals through 54 games for the Eagles prior to being loaned to New England.

Much like Bengtson, Róchez is coming from Honduras and a club that wasn't necessarily the top of Liga Nacional in Real España. Róchez notched similar numbers to Bengtson with 29 goals over 59 matches. However, the key difference between that Róchez is making this transition having JUST turned 20 in January, compared to Bengston being 24, and has played in only half as many games played (78) in his career compared to what Bengtson had (147) at the time of his arrival to the US.

These are just differences between the two players. They don't necessarily convey talent levels and they won't lead to us anywhere near being able to make any substantial claims one way or another on future success. They're simply just interesting comparisons.

There is a lot of room for error in comparing matches and goal tallies. There is no context to the situation and there isn't much depth to what little information lies on the surface. Will Róchez be any good? It's really impossible to tell at this point, but it's interesting to note what a firm grasp he has on the starting position considering his youth.

The Summary:

I'm not trying to predict where this club is going to land. It's a foolish task. They could win everything, they could win nothing. The truth is that we have no idea how they might succeed and whether or not that potential success is even sustainable. What we do know is that expansion teams tend to have heavy roster churn and changes within the front office,  and while there was some roster turnover because of the expansion the core has remained intact, and the coaching staff office has stuck around. All of these are positive signs.

Only one other club since 1998 has made the MLS playoffs in their first season, and while the East has no powerhouse, it's ruled by many clubs with gross amounts of talent all looking to collect scalps. The question is can OCSC can steal one of those six spots? Any answer seems valid to this point. Yes? No? 17 red cards for Aurélien Collin. Who knows... who freakin' knows? One thing is for sure. This will be a fun team to watch.

*minimum 14 match appearances

2015 ASA Preview: NYCFC

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By Drew Olsen (@drewjolsen)

For a team that has yet to play a professional game, NYCFC sure has seen - and cultivated - a lot of drama. From stadium deals falling through to the Frank Lampard debacle, to the lackluster jersey reception, to the purported rules surrounding permitted ways to support the team, it has been a rocky entrance into MLS. But the assembled on-field product looks to be a decent one. David Villa and Lampard are the big names, but an interesting combination of newcomers and seasoned MLS veterans have filled out the squad. If any MLS coach can get a brand-new team to work it is Jason Kreis, but it is already clear that the distractions will be many.

Only two teams (Chicago in 1998 and Seattle in 2009) have ever made playoffs in their expansion year, but NYCFC are looking to be the third. With the Yankees and Manchester City backing them they’re clearly not afraid to spend money, and expectations are very high. Still, success in 2015 is unlikely to be measured in team performance, but rather a series of more existential factors. Has the city of New York accepted the team? Has the organization created a more stable front office? Is there a legitimate plan to build a soccer specific stadium they can call home? Has Frank Lampard returned from England? With that said, let’s take a look at what type of team has actually been assembled.

Coach

Kreis is the great American hope for coaching. With Bob Bradley’s team Stabaek finishing mid-table in Norway and favored by many to be relegated in 2015, Kreis is now the American coach with the biggest overseas audience. At only 42, he’s also the favorite to follow in Jurgen Klinsmann’s shoes and coach the USMNT if all goes right. So what type of team has Kreis built to implement his patented 4-4-2 diamond? It’s a squad made up of a lot of familiar faces; Kreis either played or coached six of the players on his roster before bringing them to NYCFC. He also brought in players from abroad; another six players come from a league outside of North America, ranging from Uruguay and Colombia to Norway and Germany. There is a lot of pressure on Kreis, and his job may depend on his ability to get his team to sync.

Defense

MLS Veteran and MLS Cup winner Josh Saunders is the presumed starter in goal, with former Red Bulls starter Ryan Meara on loan as the backup. Saunders has only played four games in MLS since winning the Cup in 2013 with the Galaxy, and has dealt with personal issues, but our xG models for 2011-13 show he allowed fewer goals than the average goalkeeper would have expected in each of the three seasons (though small sample size caveats apply), suggesting he’s a better than average netminder. Meara performed as expected in his starting season in 2012, which implies there wouldn't be much of a letdown if Saunders can’t cut it.

In front of Saunders will be Kreis-favorite Chris Wingert at leftback, with Ecuadorian Andres Mendoza and former Earthquake Jason Hernandez in the middle, and former Crew player Josh Williams on the right. With an average age of 29, this is an experienced and hardened backline. It has lots of MLS experience, and won’t come with flash. These are solid, if unspectacular, players that won’t surprise anyone. When building a new team from nothing, consistency is important. This looks to be a good place to start.

Midfield

USMNT member Mikkel Diskerud (or simply “Mix”, as his jersey will say) will do the playmaking until Lampard arrives from England. His style seems to fit perfectly into the role Javier Morales played for Kreis in Salt Lake, though playing in Norway won’t have prepared him as well as Argentina did for Morales. For the midfield diamond to work with Mix at it’s apex, he will have to quickly adjust to the speed and physicality of MLS. If he is slow to adapt, things will be tough for NYC in the early-going.

Former FC Dallas man Andrew Jacobsen will form the bottom corner of the diamond. Fresh off a successful loan to the aforementioned Stabaek, Jacobson will bring strength in the air and hard tackles to protect space behind Mix. To his left will be another RSL vet and the only player with hair rivaling Diskerud, Ned Grabavoy. He’s the ultimate role-player. He won’t grab headlines or pull cheeky moves, but he’s usually in the right place at the right time. At 31 he’s beginning to slow down, but should be able to quietly hold his own against most opponents.

The right-mid starting spot looks to be a competition between former Atlanta Silverback Kwadwo Poku and MLS journeyman Mehdi Ballouchy. On the surface they couldn't be more different. Ballouchy is a known quantity. He will bring a bit of flash and finesse to the wing, but is also prone to boneheaded mistakes and sometimes forgets to play defense. He also hasn't played more than 1000 minutes since 2011, so may require some time to find his form. Conversely, Poku is big and fast, two traits that are generally signs of future success in MLS. He has shown signs of inexperience in preseason, but seems to have a high soccer IQ. He may not start at the beginning of the season, but my money is on Poku starting by the end of it.

Forwards

Either Slovakian international Adam Nemec or former USMNT U20 Tony Taylor are the favorites to start in the number nine position. Taylor had moderate success in Cypress and Portugal after going to college at South Florida, but only made only appearance last season for New England. Nemec was most recently in the German second division, where he scored 14 goals in 60 appearances since 2012.

Another way of saying it is that David Villa is all on his own up top. Possibly now the most talented player in MLS, Villa’s career speaks for itself. Since joining Valencia in 2005, he has averaged a goal every other game against some of the best competition in the world. Still, success usually doesn't come quickly for foreign starts coming to MLS. Even the likes of Henry, Beckham, and Dempsey have struggled to begin with. If Diskerud can’t get him the ball, then it will be a painfully long wait until Lampard arrives, and there is no promising that he’ll adjust quickly either.

Prognosis

NYCFC has built arguably the most imbalanced team in MLS history. The top starting players are arguably the best in MLS, and the bottom starting players are arguably the very worst. Even if he adapts quickly, it will be odd for a player like Villa to play next to the likes of cast-offs Ballouchy and Taylor. He’ll have to find his own space, and is likely to be double-teamed constantly. With no numbers or data to look at it is a fool’s errand to predict how this season will go, but a bottom three or top three finish seem equally likely. The truth is probably somewhere in-between. If Villa and Diskerud are slow to acclimate to MLS, it will be a very long season. If they find their niche quickly, and Lampard arrives to bring experience and goalscoring from the midfield, this team can make a run in the playoffs. I think a finish between seventh and fifth in the Eastern Conference is most likely

2015 ASA Preview: Seattle Sounders

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*xG = expected goals, xA = expected assists, xGD = expected goal differential. For more information see our xGoals by Team page.

By Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

I am a Sounders fan. Let me allow you in on a little secret... there are plenty of people that dislike Sounders fans, and that's warranted—most of the time. There is no one more ready to tear apart a Sounders fan than... well, another Sounders fan. You think you're clever with your little “ACES” slogan or whatever but by the time this is over I'll have more angry comments and hate mail from Sounders fans than I do non-Sounders fans.

There are still supporters wondering why Sigi Schmid has a job. Mind you, the Sounders just won two out of the three trophies they were afforded the opportunity to win last season. Pay all that no mind. We'll argue and talk down and be disparaging to each other for whether or not Brad Evans is good or if Obafemi Martins works hard enough or if he really is 30 years old or not. We're self loathing, scum of the earth and no one hates us as much as we do. And if you haven't figured it out by now, we invented hating the Seattle Sounders.

Last year they didn't win MLS Cup and that's a huge indictment on the organization, front office, coaching staff and players because supporters put such a premium on each season and every single match. Supporters have the highest, and probably a bit unrealistic, expectations every year. Some may choose to look at that as being entitled and I can certainly see the fine line that is walked carefully by many supporters in their realm.

Scoring goals, winning games, hosting cups. These things are expectations of wearing the Sounders badge. The goal every year is to lift the MLS Cup regardless of the probabilities or likelihood of such scenarios from the start. It's setting the bar high and never wavering from that, and that, you have to admit, is ballsy and kind of cool.

Looking back at the 2014 season there are a few things that will stand out, but the one thing above all else is NOT that on the last day the Sounders defeated the LA Galaxy at home to take the trophy. No, more interesting to me is the fact that Seattle kept pace with a club that according to many of our measurements was the best team in MLS, perhaps of all-time. You can argue about Chicago, New England or Columbus in the early, mid and late-00's. DC United in the late 90's or periodically through the years. You could talk about the 2012 version of the Galaxy. I don't care who is actually “the best”. Seattle kept pace with a team that is flat out HISTORIC and that's incredibly impressive.

Seattle didn't have one stretch of more than two games where they didn't have a win. Their biggest slump was taking only seven of 21 points from July 5th to August 20th which they in turn rebounded with four straight wins.

The Coach

Sigi Schmid is maybe the most under-appreciated coach in US soccer history. He's always considered a second fiddle to Bruce Arena. Despite being one of the winningest coaches in MLS history he's always having something he does questioned, and regardless of how he wins it's never good enough or classy enough or “soccer” enough.

Schmid to me is a coach that is constantly evolving. Looking at the fact the Sounders scored the second most goals (30) in MLS in the final 30 minutes of a match and conceded the least (10) during that same time period speaks to me. I felt his substitutions in the second half where the best by any coach in MLS last season and I just wish he was a bit more respected by both home and opposing fans. When all they have is weight jokes... maybe, it's not such a bad thing.

The Goalkeeper

I've played the back-and-forth game a lot with Stefen Frei. Our numbers last year didn't favor him as Frei accounted for four additional goals by himself. Again, there is a sample size to consider and it's not to say he didn't perform exceptionally well in the playoffs. I personally think, though there are numbers that can be crunched to verify, that he performed better down the stretch of the season once the rust of not playing the past two seasons was shaken free.

That said, the Sounders needed a back-up keeper and made the move to bring in Troy Perkins this off-season. Perkins has been a starter at his last four clubs, but his time in Montreal wasn't great (we account for him adding a full five goals above the average keeper) and while his defense didn't help him (saw nearly six shots on goal a game, top-five during his tenure) neither did being the highest paid keeper in MLS. I'm interested to see if having Perkins will push Frei to be better than last season or create personnel decision and complications for the coaching staff.

The Defenders

Obviously no more DeAndre Yedlin, he's gone. Gone, gone, gone. Yedlin wasn't just fast, he got to a lot of loose, 50/50 balls. He won 53% of his tackles and was in the t-17th in interceptions with 78 and 4th among full backs. It's not that those specific stats yield much difference in expected goals against but he did a great job of helping Seattle retain possession and create shots as quickly as possible. He's going to be missed for more than singular physical attribute—and the cool hair cuts.

Yedlin's absence has given way to the club signing Tyrone Mears, former Bolton Wanderer. So... yeah. He runs like a soccer player, so I've been told. Any other data can remain on the sideline to this point because it's all from England and we don't like data from them because it's all in the metric system.

Also, filed under news I'm sure you already knew, Zach Scott is old! Love the guy and I really love that he's somehow gotten better every year after the age of 30. But the time has come that Seattle has to gameplan that he can't be the fall back guy. The heir apparent for that role seems to be the ever versatile Brad Evans,  a guy who most know from his time at right back with the USMNT. He's great with the ball at his feet, was 18th in total aerial duels--winning 60% of them--and had an great foul/win ratio of 1:1. How that translates to being a defender, I guess we'll see.

Lastly, there is Leo Gonzalez whom I can't believe is no longer getting Costa Rica call-ups. His defense is among the best at full back in MLS. The key is health and keeping healthy. Dave Tenney, Ravi Ramineni and the rest of the impressive Seattle Sounders sports science team have to find a way to keep Gonzalez on the pitch for those last five or six games in the playoffs. Basically, I just want a chance to reference Dave and Ravi because I think they're pretty neat fellas.

The Midfielders

Lamar Neagle is perhaps one of my favorite things about the Seattle Sounders. Yes, I know Oba and Clint play there too. I'll get to all of that. Over 2500 minutes Neagle projects to create about 10 goals a season. That's not a crazy amount but the fun thing is that whenever he's given the minutes he does all that AND a bag of chips.... not even Lays, no grease!

I wonder if Neagle might be a top-five wide midfielder/winger in MLS. And not only are you, the RSL or Portland fan that is, for some reason or another, reading this article and wanting to barf, but so are most Sounders fans who right now have at least three fingers counting other players in the league they'd rather have.

Look, I'll give you Brad Davis and Graham Zusi for sure, but Lloyd Sam, Darlington Nagbe? I like both a lot and on pure talent you have an argument, but I'm not sure either are better than Neagle or that there is substantial data that proves either theory. Maybe, Ethan Finlay. Maybe. This is seriously an interesting conversation with you start to think about it on a production level.

Real quick, Ozzie Alonso was on a bit of a downward trend with minutes the last four years. From 2011 to 2013 each of his seasons saw decreased minutes and more injuries, which was frighting for any supporter to see happen to a vital member of the team.

Alonso finally breached the 2800 minute mark again (for only the second time in his six season career) in 2014 but is now looking at missing more time after having surgery on his groin. The question I have not just is whether or not the Sounders are going to be able to recover from a losing out on Alonso for any amount of games but if we're going to see that once great ball winner return to be actually great.

The Forwards

I'm not sure two players in Major League soccer have as much fun as Obafemi Martins and Clint Dempsey do while they are on the pitch together. 

Still, when you look at our expected goals and see that we tally Oba with scoring three more goals than the expected goals model predicted last season, that isn't just luck. His Shot leverage (.162), which is the average location and expected likelihood that a shot would score, is the 10th highest in our four year data set. Meaning that Oba doesn't take lucky shots. He's made some lucky shots, but the ones he makes aren't all luck. He obviously has an immense amount of skill in repeatedly getting to his goal scoring locations. While the model hints at some regression, it should be an interesting case study to see if he can continually beat the model and what we can take from how he does it.

Clint Dempsey is awesome too, and expected goals loves what he does more than Martins. That's because of two things: volume and quality. He creates an incredible amount of shots from all sorts of great locations, and while his shot leverage is four points lower than Oba, he makes it up in nearly two and half additional shots created a game.

Summary

Seattle has all the pieces to continue being really good and they didn't have a lot of roster churn which I think is vital in MLS. It makes a lot of sense to consider them the team to beat out of the Western Conference and possibly the MLS Cup favorite to this point. 

The thing that really distinguished them as a club for me last year was their expected goals against was about in line with what it was last year and the amount of goals they gave up regressed back to the mean. I'm sure a lot of that had to do with using Chad Marshall, but don't underestimate the amount of heartache that defense went through between using the Djimi Traore, Scott tandem and Dylan Remick at full back, too. Finishing 6th in MLS isn't anything to sneeze at and you shouldn't sneeze at things anyway, as it's rather gross.

The team's expected goals in even game states fell back a tiny bit. That is to say the likelihood that the team scores before their opponent. I don't think it's anything to worry about. The take away from an expected goals point of view last year is that they're not as good an attacking team as they seemed, but they're also a better defense team than they seemed, too.

While a first place finish and competing for the Supporters Shield is very possible, I think a 2nd or 3rd place finish is probably more likely for Seattle in 2015.