2015 ASA Preview: LA Galaxy

*xG = expected goals, xA = expected assists, xGD = expected goal differential. For more information see our xGoals by Team page.

By Sean Steffen (@seansteffen)

With the retirement of Landon Donovan, the Galaxy have lost a player who in large part defined their identity. To say that the LA Galaxy are a team in flux is an understatement, which makes making predictions about next season a fool’s errand. But the fear of looking foolish has never been an adequate deterrent in my writing career, so let’s give this a shot. 

Let’s make no mistake about it: Landon Donovan was a chance creating God.  Last year 32.2% of the Galaxy’s total xG came from either a Donovan shot or pass. His stylistic impact on the team was perhaps even greater. This can be backed up by my own recent passing analysis of the team which can be read here

In short, I isolated two distinct buildup styles that the 2014 Galaxy employed to score and Donovan was involved in 75% of them. He was also the driving force behind the famed "Tiki-Taco" style of play which lead to Gyasi Zardes getting so many uncontested shots within the box, a phenomenon I wrote about here. Now that 75% is admittedly skewed somewhat by my methodology since my article was aimed more at analyzing style than overall number, however, if does show that Donovan either scored or was within four passes of a bare minimum of 39% of the Galaxy’s assisted non-set-piece goals.

It took a lot of math, but I think we've finally proven this Donovan fellow was pretty good at soccer. The obvious question becomes, who replaces him, and how does that effect the Galaxy’s xG numbers? This is a huge question mark because the Galaxy have played few preseason games and have rotated players at left mid to a point that it’s impossible to guess who will be starting. As of now, Bradford Jamieson IV looks to be Bruce’s pick to be the starting left mid on opening day (whenever that will be).  We have no data available on Jamieson, but his season in USL Pro last year suggests he will be a player that will contribute mainly by way of expected goal and will have few expected assists. Now, from a numbers standpoint, a goal is a goal, however, the expected goal numbers of an entire team fall when chance creation is depleted, which is a very real possibility for the Galaxy next year. 

Luckily for the Galaxy, however, their expected goal difference totals from last year were so great, that they actually have a considerable amount of xG to give, if the defense can remain consistent. I addressed this quite thoroughly in this article, but here is a key takeaway

Team Expected Goal differential per 90
2014 LA Galaxy 0.88
2014 Seattle 0.41
2012-2014 Avg. Supporters Shield Winner 0.28
2012-2014 Top of the West 0.34

The Galaxy somehow managed to lose the Supporters' Shield race last year despite a redonkulous xG differential. This is can be viewed as a cushion, of sorts, because it means that, with a bit more luck and better game management, the Galaxy can lose a lot of xG and still be a top team. Here are the quick hit points. 

From a numbers standpoint, the Galaxy could replace Donovan with a player that contributes 0 xG by way of shot or pass and would still have a 0.43 xG lead on the Supporters' Shield average over the course of a full season. If you apply the same neutral left mid scenario to the average for teams that finished top of the west over that period, the  Galaxy only fall under the western mark by 1.39xG. And finally, subtracting Donovan’s output last year still only puts the Galaxy 3.88 xG behind Seattle in xG differential. That’s a marginal difference, and one that can be easily overcome by a combination of Stefan Ishizaki shouldering more of the chance creation load, and the xG Bradford Jamieson IV brings to the table. 

There is also the matter of Steven Gerrard, who arrives in mid July, and will surely boost the Galaxy’s numbers; however, his impact on the Galaxy’s xG Differential numbers will probably be a bit more complex than him boosting xGF. History suggests that his addition might be at the expense of more shots against.  

You see, the data we have on the Galaxy is interesting. The first year available is from the famous 2011 team, who many consider to be the greatest MLS team of all time. Of the four total years of data, we have two years in the Beckham era and two years in the post Beckham era. During the Beckham years, the Galaxy played a lethal brand of counter-attack soccer. In the years following Beckham, the Galaxy became an elite possession team. Over the four years of data, the Galaxy won three MLS cups, but by using two very distinct styles of soccer. 

Why do I even bring this up? The data clearly shows that the Galaxy’s defense improved by leaps and bounds in the post Beckham years. This may come as a shock to some, as the 2011 LA Galaxy team is generally regarded as one of the best defensive sides of all time, sporting a goals against average of 0.79 a game,  however, the data suggests that the Galaxy’s goals against numbers were anomalous that year. 

Now I do not know if this jump in improvement is related more to tactics or personnel, since Beckham wasn't exactly the best defender, but I can say with much confidence that the Galaxy were simply a better defensive team post Beckham. 

Let’s dive into the data and look at goals against average.

As you can see above, the Galaxy’s goals against average has consistently been well below that of the conference for three of the four years.  The problem, however, is that the xGoals against data shows that the 2011 Galaxy’s numbers may be a bit of an outlier. From an xG standpoint, there is a very clear distinction between the Beckham and post Beckham years.  Take a look.

The very same thing can be said for shots against. 

Well what about shot leverage? That is, the positions of the field he Galaxy are giving up shots. Has that remained constant?

At first glance, yes, despite the varying levels of shot volume faced. 

Metric 2011 2012 2013 2014
Avg Shot Leverage against 0.095 0.104 0.09 0.093
Shots Against 408 439 326 348

The problem, however, is if you plot it against league averages, the Galaxy during the Beckham era were giving up shots of leverage consistent with the rest of the league. Over a four year span, shot leverage has climbed league wide, however, in the post Beckham years, the average shot leverage given up by the Galaxy was in decline.

The Beckham years saw a very defensively oriented Galaxy team. Ironically, however, it is the post Beckham years that have yielded the best defensive numbers (ignoring the anomalous goals against totals of 2011 for the reasons shown above.)

This is in large part thanks to the staggering decrease in the number of shots the Galaxy give up. Now some of this probably correlates to possession, however, if you look at the Goals 3.0 table, you’ll find that possession is a poor corollary to shots against. In fact, there isn't a stat listed on that page that isn't.

Now, perhaps buried deep in the numbers is a great explanation as to why certain teams are so good at limiting shots, however, I would postulate that it is in large part tactical and linked to how many men you have tracking back.

If I am correct in this assumption, then I feel that the Galaxy will continue to dominate MLS in terms of giving up the least number of shots next year, at least until the arrival of Gerrard, as their shape and general personnel make up hasn't changed. Yes they lost Marcelo Sarvas, but Baggio Husidic is a player who tracks back just as much and makes as many tackles.

Of course, when Gerrard arrives, it’s anybody’s guess how the Galaxy will utilize him. Bruce has stated that he wants him closer to goal, which seems to rule out the possibility that we see Gerrard play in the role of deep-lying playmaker which we saw David Beckham play so well. This could suggest that the Galaxy’s xGA numbers will not rise above the totals we saw in the Beckham years, and the same can probably be said for shots.

While Gerrard still has some legs in him and still averages about three defensive actions a game, his ability to get back into the Galaxy’s shape will probably be less than whoever it is he replaces in the lineup. This means that the Galaxy probably will give up more shots against per game after he arrives. This more than likely means higher xG against, and higher goals against, but again, not as high as the Beckham years.

In other words, the Galaxy data during the Gerard era may fall about halfway in-between the 2012 and 2013 numbers.   

2015 ASA Preview: Real Salt Lake

*xG = expected goals, xA = expected assists, xGD = expected goal differential. For more information see our xGoals by Team page.

By Matthias Kullowatz (@mattyanselmo)

2014 Review (and beyond)

Real Salt Lake finished third in the Western Conference last season and competed in the MLS playoffs for the seventh consecutive year. RSL’s president, Bill Manning, was awarded Executive of the Year, and for good reason. RSL—the Tampa Bay Rays of MLS—has continued making the playoffs year in and year out on a low budget. In 2014, the team’s total compensation paid to players was sixth lowest in MLS, $2.4M below the league average team.*

The top story around here about Real Salt Lake revolves around its ability to frustrate me. Over the past two seasons, RSL has led the league in scoring more goals than our model expects it to, and in allowing fewer goals than our model expects it to. So what’s in the water in Utah?

Nick Rimando is in the water. Over the past three seasons, Rimando has made saves valued at more than six goals per season better than average.** Using a simple regression, we can estimate that those six goals in a season were worth about four additional points for RSL in the standings each year. Not bad for one player.

Offensively, we've shown that outperforming expected goals becomes a stable metric as the season progresses. The only question is, how does RSL do it? Perhaps of importance, its offense is extremely slow and methodical relative to other teams. According to Tempo Free Soccer, RSL was third in the league in 2014 in passes per possession (PPP) but dead last in possessions per game (PPG). There is certainly a correlation across the league between PPP and outperforming expected goals, indicating that perhaps long possession (by number of passes) frees up players for shots with more time and space. Or maybe teams that are capable of creating time and space know that they need to pass the ball around enough to find the right opportunity. Either way, it’s clearly possible that RSL is such a team that has an ability to outperform its expected goals offensively.

Between 2011 and 2013, striker Alvaro Saborio consistently outperformed his own expected goals by about two per season. In 2014, he started just 13 games and played 1230 minutes, making way for the four-foot-15-inch Ecuadorian, Joao Plata. Plata clearly appreciated his opportunity, producing 56 of his own shots and 13 goals in just 24 starts—6.5 goals more than expected, given his quality and quantity of opportunities. While Plata will likely regress some in the finishing department, it seems that RSL’s style fosters overperformance. It is still up for debate as to how much of this overperformance comes from each of team style, individual finishing, and random variation.

2015 Preview

Whenever the season actually starts, RSL will kick off with one of the best goalkeepers in the league once again in Rimando. We’ve talked about him already, but his backup may be one of the more undervalued assets on the team. Jeff Attinella made just below $50,000 in total compensation in 2014, not too far above league minimum of $36,500. Our keeper ratings show that he saved four more goals than expected last season, and while 10 starts is hardly a large enough sample size to conclude he’s a top goalkeeper, a history of success in the NASL suggests that he’s capable. Additionally, our own Will Reno projects him essentially as a typical starting MLS goalkeeper, and Tom Worville suggested that Attinella was an undervalued keeper using WhoScored data. For 50,000 bananas, RSL fans can be reassured that if Rimando were to go down, the season wouldn't be hopeless.

Defense

This offseason saw the departure of two starters along RLS’s backline, Nat Borchers to Portland and Chris Wingert (and his classy tucked-in jersey) to New York City FC. They combined for 5,780 minutes, half of which will likely go to the prodigal son, Jamison Olave. Olave will replace Borcher’s position at centerback, but probability in a much different way. Olave features an athleticism that does not conjure up any images of Borchers, though it’s perhaps a reckless athleticism at times. Olave did accumulate eight yellow cards last season, exactly as many as Portland’s Diego Chara who is particularly known for such chicanery. Despite the physical differences, for what it’s worth, some of their statistical outputs are quite similar.

Player xG xA Shots KP AirDuels/G Steals/G Pass%
Borchers 1.2 0.2 13 4 2.6 0.4 86%
Olave 1.4 0.4 13 3 2.6 0.5 83%
Data from both our archives and Whoscored.com

Who will get those other minutes left by Wingert is up for debate, but Demar Phillips appears to be the frontrunner. The Jamaican international joins RSL from Aalesunds FK, a successful team in Norway’s top division. Also an option is the 26-year-old Abdoulie Mansally, who made 11 appearances with six starts last season. Both could provide a stronger offensive presence than Wingert from the back. Mansally was once a forward, and produced more xGoals and xAssists than Wingert on a per-minute basis in 2014, and Phillips has scored 12 goals for the Jamaican international team over the years, indicating some experience being offensive.

Midfield

RSL is known for its 4-4-2 lineup with an effective diamond midfield. It started four midfielders in every game but one last season, at least nominally. This is interesting because multiple sources suggest that RSL could come out in a 4-3-3 in 2015. After losing Ned Grabavoy to NYCFC in the expansion draft—in addition to a growing pool of forward talent—RSL may be rethinking its personnel and style. Last season the midfield quartet of Grabavoy, Javier Morales, Kyle Beckerman, and Luke Mulholland produced 15.5 expected goals and 16.2 expected assists in 10,581 minutes. For comparison’s sake, D.C. United’s primary middle four logged 10,359 minutes and recorded just 10.8 expected goals and 6.8 expected assists. Though it may not be completely fair to compare them to D.C. United, team style aside, it shows that RSL got a lot more out of its midfield than another successful MLS team that also played a 4-4-2.

Regardless of formation, 2015 is likely to feature more of USMNT member Luis Gil and less of Mulholland. Mulholland outpaced Gil in shots and expected goals last season, but not by much once you consider that Gil played 500 fewer minutes. Just 21 years of age and getting USMNT experience, Gil is ready to start and play 2,500+ minutes.  But the question remains, will RSL’s midfield be able to continue to produce high quantity and quality of chances in a new formation? Was Grabavoy more important to the mix than many thought? I don't have these answers, but perhaps 2015 does.

Forwards

Another reason for the potential formation change may have a lot to do with the emergence of Plata, Olmes Garcia, and Devon Sandoval as good young forwards, as well as the mid-season signing of Argentine striker Sebastian Jaime back in August. With Saborio returning from an injury-shortened season, RSL may feel that it can maximize production by simply allowing more forwards to play at once. The loss of Robbie Findley’s 822 minutes may not even be noticed.

There was a focus Plata’s 13 goals and what he was able to do for RSL by scoring, but I noticed something else in his statistical line. He led RSL’s forwards in 2014 by far in key passes and expected assists with 48 and 5.7, respectively. Of course, he played more minutes, so how about this one: in 2,084 minutes, Plata recorded more key passes and xAssists individually than every other main RSL forward in a combined 4,294 minutes.*** Even if it starts three forwards in 2015, Real Salt Lake would have one that distributes enough to make it work well.

Conclusion

Despite the losses of Borchers, Grabavoy, and Findley, among others, RSL definitely has the fire power to compete for a top three finish in the Western Conference, though that may not be the average projection. I feel that RSL’s success in 2015 hinges on its ability to make the midfield as effective as it was the past, whether it chooses to replace Grabavoy with a forward (4-3-3) or work Gil in with the remaining midfielders (4-4-2). Our predictive model from the end of last season suggested that RSL would be expected to finish essentially tied for fourth in the West with Portland, Sporting KC, and Vancouver. I think it's fair to project RSL to finish somewhere between 3rd and 7th in a tight Western Conference.

 

* http://www.mlsplayers.org/salary_info.html

**Check out our keeping ratings under the xGoals tabs!

***Includes Saborio, Garcia, Findley, Sandoval, and Jaime.

2015 ASA Preview: DC United

*xG = expected goals, xA = expected assists, xGD = expected goal differential. For more information see our xGoals by Team page.

By Jared Young (@jaredeyoung)

Time for soccer analysts to perk up because D.C. United’s 2015 season is the one to watch if you are into numbers. Why? Because in 2014, D. C. United defied them. And the story of the year, at least for the geeks, is whether or not D.C. United can do it again.

After one of the worst seasons in franchise history in 2013, D.C. United shocked the league and won the Eastern Conference in 2014. A turnaround like that required improvement on both sides of the ball. United went from easily the worst offense in the league with 22 goals to a solid offense with 52. And they turned the worst defense in the league with 59 goals allowed to tied for the league’s best with 37 goals.

So what’s the problem? The issue is that the numbers say it shouldn't have happened. The ASA expected goals model says that D.C. United should have scored just 38 goals compared to their 52. And on the defensive side the ASA models thinks that 48.6 goals against would have been a more likely number, compared to the actual 37. Their expected goal ratio in fact was 3rd worst in MLS. Michael’s Caley’s expected goals model suggests a similar story to that of ASA. Were D.C. United just lucky or are they doing something that the models don’t contemplate? On the offensive side of the equation the positive story can be traced to two dynamics scorers.

D.C. United’s dynamic duo

If United fans had their way, they’d pair Luis Silva and Fabian Espindola at the top of Ben Olsen’s 4-4-2 formation. And despite the fact that the two play a very similar style of forward, they’d be right. That pair was the reason for the strong shooting from United. The paid scored 22 goals last season, but the ASA expected goals model suggest they should have 11.4. That 10+ goal gap is most of the team’s “overproduction” last year.

Espindola’s finishing prowess is puzzling because he actually took his shots on average four feet further from the goal than other shooters.  Remarkably he was terrific at avoiding blocked shots. While shooters on average have their shots blocked one in every four attempts, Espindola had that happen approximately once in almost eight attempts. He may have been more focused on getting open looks versus how far he was from the goal. Silva’s ability is tougher to figure. Everything but his finishing rate appears average. His shots on target level was slightly higher than average and the percentage of his shots that were blocked was 23 percent. Unless the team finds new ways to increase their shot totals, the duo’s ability to shoot better than expected will be depended on going into 2015.

What’s changed going into the 2015 season?

The biggest change for the red and black this offseason was actually confirmation of a new soccer specific stadium to be built for the 2017 season. That stadium has the opportunity to enhance the soccer experience in the D.C. area and build a bigger base of fans for the team.

From a roster perspective there were just a few changes. United added Jairo Arrieta from Columbus Crew as forward depth. He will be a key contributor, especially in the early going. The most intriguing acquisition was nearly 31 year old Malmo FF and Finnish national midfielder Markus Halsti. Halsti is a versatile defensive minded midfielder who also adds depth for the defense. He should fit in well with Perry Kitchen, Davey Arnaud, Nick DeLeon and Chris Pontius. D.C. United also signed their first round pick Miguel Aguilar, who figures to get his feet wet on the wings this season.

No change is good news for the defense that led the league is goals against. Second year emerging star Steve Birnbaum and Bobby Boswell anchor the center of the defense while Sean Franklin, Taylor Kemp, and Chris Korb will rotate at the fullback.

What to expect in 2015

When expected goals models fail how can you expect what to expect? The defense-first United stand to keep up their stingy ways despite the models. The return of the core defense and the continued development of one of the bright young keepers in MLS, Bill Hamid, should mean Ben Olsen’s squad maintains their perch near the top of MLS.

The offense could prove to be more difficult to maintain, at least to start the season. Espindola starts the campaign with a six game suspension and Silva has been nursing a hamstring all preseason. Eddie Johnson’s playing future is uncertain at this point due to an enlarged heart, and that leaves Chris Rolfe and Arrieta to maintain status quo. It could be a rocky opening to the season, but one of United’s strengths is that they have a number of players that can play multiple positions. Rolfe and Pontius, for example, are hybrid offensive players that give Olsen flexibility with both lineups and styles of play.

And therein lies United’s core strength; while they prefer to play defense first and are usually more reactive than their competition, they can win playing all styles. Early on Ben Olsen will need to mix and match players until he lands on a core group and formation. There’s no reason to think that D.C. United will slip so far as to miss the playoffs, unless of course you believe that numbers never lie.  

2015 ASA Preview: FC Dallas

*xG = expected goals, xA = expected assists, xGD = expected goal differential. For more information see our xGoals by Team page.

By Jason Poon (@jasonhpoon)

2014 was about the return of a legend in Oscar Pareja to coach the Hoops, the final breakout season of a young promising attacker in Fabian Castillo and the return to playoffs after a two season absence. 2014 was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Dallas after Pareja was snatched up from Colorado days before the SuperDraft, but the emergence of several young stars (Mauro Diaz, Tesho Akindele, and Victor Ulloa) pushed Dallas into the post season and came within a goal of reaching the Western Conference Finals.

2015 will be about correcting some of their own mistakes (red cards), fitness issues (injuries), improving on the little things (fewer shots against), and making another deep run into the playoffs to challenge for the MLS Cup. I wrote some similar stuff here at BigDSoccer.com, so if this looks familiar, well there you go. 

Silly Reds

The most infuriating part of watching FC Dallas in 2014 had to be their propensity to needlessly shoot themselves in the foot time and time again. Dallas was the most red carded team in MLS last season with 10 send offs. Chivas USA were second with nine and Toronto and Columbus tied for third with seven a piece. It's an entirely different story if you go in for a potentially goal saving tackle and miss or deliberately handle the ball ala Luis Suarez circa World Cup 2010, but those are professional fouls to eliminate a goal scoring threat. Dallas did none of that in 2014. Every single red card was a result of poor decision making, rash challenges and plain silliness. 

FC Dallas gave up at least eight points from matches where they picked up a red card in 2014, and that only accounts for the games that the red card took place, not the games missed following the suspension. Let's give Dallas the best case scenario that they didn't pick up those reds and secured all 8 points, that would have put them with 62 points, ahead of LA Galaxy and good for second place in the Western Conference last season. Or, we'll be more reasonable and conservative give them half of the points (4), that still would have elevated Dallas to third place. Bottom line, Dallas has to stop picking up pointless red cards if they want to give themselves a chance at becoming one of the elites in MLS in 2015.

Defensive Spine

The biggest question mark for me about this Dallas team is how will the defense hold up over the course of the season. If you'll take a quick look at the player transactions (as of 2/27/15) you'll notice something about the defense, namely that lots of players have left and few new players have come in to replace them:

Incoming: Michael Barrios (Uniautónoma/Colombia), Kyle Bekker (Toronto FC), Otis Earle (UC Riverside/SuperDraft), Atiba Harris (San Jose Earthquakes), Dan Kennedy (Chivas USA), Alex Zendejas (Homegrown)

Outgoing: Jair Benitez (Águilas Pereira/Colombia), Walter Cabrera (loan return to General Diaz/Paraguay), Andres Escobar (loan return to Dynamo Kiev/Ukraine), Raul Fernández (Universitario de Deportes/Peru), George John (New York City FC), Peter Luccin (option declined), Adam Moffat (New York Cosmos), Brian Span (waived), Hendry Thomas (option declined), Jonathan Top (option declined), Nick Walker (option declined), Je-Vaughn Watson (unattached)

Out went standout defender George John, and defensive midfielder Hendry Thomas. Granted John didn't play any minutes in 2014 and Thomas was limited to just 10 games so they didn't contribute much, if at all, to the team's defensive woes but the outlook was more positive had they recovered from their injuries and stayed with the team. The lack of incoming players to replace them is concerning and just who will step up for Dallas in ball winning and preventing goal scoring opportunities? 

Dallas gave up an atrocious 14.4 shots per game, which was only bested by San Jose's even more inept defense which shipped 16.1 shots per game. In the Western Conference, the team average of shots against was 13.1. Dallas will have to do better in this department if they are hoping to improve in 2015.

Health

Related to the above but at the moment, Dallas only has three true centerbacks on their roster in Best XI candidate Matt Hedges, former first round draft pick Walker Zimmerman and serviceable journeyman and fan favorite Stephen Keel (who is currently out injured). Zach Loyd (who actually did extremely well here), Moises Hernandez and Je-Vaughn Watson (not on the team) all took shifts there last year, but if one of the CBs goes down with an injury, a makeshift backline will be in the works again. With Zimmerman having only played in 17 total games (13 starts) in his two seasons in MLS, asking the young CB to go an entire year injury free might be too much to ask so soon.

MLS Player of the Month in March, Mauro Diaz also spent a lot of time on the sidelines having only played in 17 games (9 starts) as well. Dallas did eventually figure out how to win points without their magical unicorn of a playmaker, and switched to a more direct counter attacking style of attack, but Diaz offers a vision and passing ability that no one else in the league can match at the moment. 

The outlook for 2015 is hard to determine at the moment. We've seen teams like DC United go from worst to best in the East in the matter of two consecutive seasons and we have seen teams like the San Jose Earthquakes go from Supporter's Shield winners in 2012 to whatever you want to call them last year. I'm cautiously optimistic that Dallas will be even better in 2015 but the history of the league has shown us that predictions are entirely a crapshoot at this point.

2015 ASA Preview: New England Revolution

*xG = expected goals, xA = expected assists, xGD = expected goal differential. For more information see our xGoals by Team page.

By Drew Olsen (@drewjolsen)

It is not an overstatement to say that New England had the most up and down season in MLS last year. Just take a moment to look at the season progression chart above. Seriously, I’ll wait.

Here’s another way of looking at it, taken from the league results map:

Let’s put that in perspective. After week 12, the Revs had the 2nd best record in MLS. They were on a five game winning streak that included some of the best teams in MLS. In order, they won 2-0 over Kansas City, 2-1 over Toronto FC, 5-0 (!!) over eventual Supporters’ Shield winners Seattle, 3-5 over Philadelphia, and 2-1 over eventual Eastern Conference winners DC United. That is maximum points over one of the most difficult stretches of their schedule. So what did the team do? It responded by losing eight consecutive games, including losses to lowly Montreal and Chicago. Montreal finished the season with 28 points in 34 games. New England had 22 points in week 12. 

But New England also had 22 points after week 21. Matthias wrote about their roller coaster ride while it was happening, and came to the conclusion that giving the Revolution a 60% chance of making the playoffs was probably too high. Presumably, he would have also said the odds of another five game winning streak were even lower than 60%, so that’s what they did. Twice. If you include the playoffs, the Revs went 12-2-3 over their last 17 games, with one of those two losses being in MLS Cup.

So how good was this team? Was it the explosive and creative team that started and ended the season, or the smoldering tire fire that played during the summer? The answer is somewhere in the middle. While the summer addition of Jermaine Jones may have coincided with their second winning streak, he was not the only reason for it. Our expected goals model showed New England with a 0.01 xGD and a -0.11xGD when the score is tied and both teams are even on players. In other words, based on where they and their opponents were taking shots from, this was an about average team on the whole for the season. But some other numbers suggest it was no fluke. No team possessed the ball in their opponent’s final third more than the Revs last year, (despite them averaging only 46% possession for the season) and no team in the East averaged more shots on goal per game.

Finishing 2nd in the East and making it to MLS Cup is a great accomplishment, one that will be difficult to repeat in 2015. That said, nearly the same team returns, and improvements have been made. The goal for this season is simple: bring some silverware back to Foxboro.

Defense

It starts in back with Bobby Shuttleworth between the sticks. Our xG for last season show he allowed about four fewer goals than the typical keeper would have expected based on the shots he faced, which was good for 6th best among keepers with at least 20 games played. His backup Brad Knighton saw limited time last season, but was about average in 2013 and doesn't figure to challenge for the starting job.

While Shuttleworth proved capable last season, it is the defense upon which Coach Jay Heaps’ system was built. It all starts with former Defender of the Year Jose Goncalves, who finished 7th in MLS with 219 clearances last season, despite playing in only 27 games. With A.J. Soares, who led the team in appearances last season gone to Norway, 2013 number one overall pick Andrew Farrell will transition from outside back to pair with Goncalves in the center. Still only 22, Farrell is loaded with potential. And while he saw some limited time in the middle last season, Heaps is now making the move permanent, and the ability of his defense to prevent goals may depend on it.

On the left will be Revs institution Chris Tierney, who had a phenomenal 2014 season which culminated with his goal in MLS Cup. On the other side, it looks like a competition between Kevin Alston and Jeremy Hall, who comes over from Toronto. Hall mostly played in the midfield for the last three seasons, but based on the preseason Heaps has him pegged at right back. With only two appearances for Toronto last season, Hall will be relied on to find his form again quickly if he starts. Alston is the more likely candidate, despite only 11 appearances last year as he made his inspirational return from Leukemia.

If Farrell can manage his move to the center and the new right back fits in seamlessly, we can continue to expect a lot from this defensive unit. But the loss of Soares and the question marks hovering over Hall and Alston suggest we’re likely to see a dip in quality on the backline.

Midfield

The center of the field is mostly credited for getting New England to MLS Cup last season, and it is unchanged for 2015. Jermaine Jones, coming of his successful World Cup, provided an important defensive cover when he came to the team towards the end of the season. With fewer than 1000 minutes played it is difficult to judge his quality in MLS, but he will undoubtedly be an important defensive piece in front of Heaps’ newly reformed backline. That said, Jones is 34 and doesn't figure to get any younger. He also didn't appear in the preseason after having sports-hernia surgery last month.

Next to Jones in front of the defense will be homegrown player Scott Caldwell, who nailed down his starting spot in the 2nd half of the season. He was dribbled past more than any other player on the team last season (1.2 times per game), so will need to continue to learn to keep attackers in front of him. Still, he was solid if unspectacular last season, and at 23 will only continue to improve. 

While Jones was the big name signing that got the headlines, it was MVP finalist Lee Nguyen that provided the heart and soul of the Revs. He had 18 goals, nine more than our model suggested he should expect, which was the biggest difference in the league. Did he just get lucky or is he just a better finisher than everyone else? The quality of some of his goals imply the latter, but this season may tell us. Like Jones, he hasn't appeared in preseason, but hopes to play in the season opener. If New England are to make another through the playoffs, Nguyen will need to again be at his best.

Teal Bunbury is back, and will again be the third wheel in the midfield. He’ll streak up the right, and create space for Nguyen to operate in the center. Leaving Kansas City seems to have been a good move for Bunbury, and he’ll hope to continue to improve on last year. Kelyn Rowe, the Revs’ 3rd pick in 2012, will slot in on the left side but has shown to be versatile; he played in every midfield position at some point last year.

Daigo Kobayashi, whose 86% pass completion rate was best on the team last year, and the once-touted Diego Fagundez, are the favorites to be Heaps’ first subs off the bench. Both players have impressed in the preseason, and will see their share of time.

Forwards

While Charlie Davies returns, his three goals last year were a disappointment. Heaps knew he needed an upgrade, and in comes familiar face Juan Agudelo. Still only 22, Agudelo will bring a new threat, and hopes to return to his goalscoring ways after playing only 14 competitive games in the last year. His nine goals in 2013 were 3.4 more than his 5.6 xG, so he will look to convert at a similar clip.

Prognosis

The Revolution are the preseason pick by many to return to MLS cup from the East, and it’s not an unreasonable expectation. If the realigned defense works out and this is the same Agudelo that averaged a goal every other game in 2013, then New England will be a force to be reckoned with. Still, they seemed to over-perform their expected goals last season, and a regression to the mean seems likely. The loss of Soares is certain to be felt, and we still don’t know how Farrell will fit into the middle of defense. A playoff spot seems certain, but another top two seed will be difficult to come by.

2015 ASA Preview: Vancouver Whitecaps

*xG = expected goals, xA = expected assists, xGD = expected goal differential. For more information see our xGoals by Team page.

By Drew Olsen (@drewjolsen)

For a team that entered 2014 with middling expectations, securing 50 points for the first time in MLS club history and making the playoffs was no small success for the Whitecaps. But this is a team that has finished with between 43 and 50 points each of the last three seasons and been eliminated twice as the 5th seed in the playoffs. Vancouver is beginning to take on the same role Costa Rica occupies in CONCACAF qualifying; both are good teams that can be counted on to pose a challenge to any opponent, but are not contenders to finish near the top of the standings.

To try to change that reputation the team is building a young, talented roster led by 2nd year coach Carl Robinson. It is a roster that is unlikely to win MLS Cup in the next season or two, but has lots of promise for the future. With eight homegrown players 22 or younger plus the addition of Young DP Octavio Rivero, the future looks bright in Vancouver.

Expectations are tempered for 2015 and it will be difficult for the Whitecaps to make the playoffs again in a competitive Western Conference, but that does not mean this season won't be a success. With an average roster age less than 24, this year is likely to be a stepping stone towards eventual success in Vancouver.

Defense

There is plenty to build on from last season, beginning with the Whitecaps' stingy defense. Allowing only 1.17 goals per game last year kept Vancouver in many games, and our expected goals metrics suggest they actually got a bit unlucky by allowing as many as they did. In other words, the quality of this defense was no fluke.

David Ousted was an exactly average keeper last year, and it's unlikely much will change for him in 2015. Jordan Harvey started every game last season, and he will again join Steven Beitashour at fullback. The question mark comes from the center of defense, where last year's starters for much of the year, Johnny Leveron and Andy O'Brien, have both moved on. If the quality on the backline of 2014 is to continue, it will have to come with a new centerback pairing. Kendall Waston looks likely to take one of the starting spots, with newcomers Pa Modou-Kah and Diego Rodriguez fighting for the other starting position. The 34 year old veteran Kah comes from Portland, where he has been in and out of the starting lineup for two seasons. Rodriguez joins from Uruguay, by way of La Liga side Malaga. It is not an understatement to say the Whitecaps' season may depend on the ability of its defense to mesh.

Midfield

Anchored by DPs Pedro Morales and the now officially signed Matias Laba, the midfield will again be one to be reckoned with. Morales' 20.75 xG + xA was 4th in the league last season, and he will continue to be relied on to create for the young attacking corps. Laba isn't afraid to get stuck in, and should provide a valuable bit of protection in front of the new centerbacks.

Russell Teibert returns on the left side after a disappointing 2014. A lot was expected from him after two goals, nine assists, and 35 key passes in 2013, but he managed no goals and just two assists and 24 key passes, despite playing 2000 more minutes last season. Erik Hurtado may end up on the right, and also might compete against the aging Mauro Rosales for playing time. Rosales started the final 10 games of the season after coming over from Chivas USA, but at age 34 he set a career high for most minutes since coming to MLS. Whitecaps mainstay Gershon Koffie will also try to regain a foothold in the midfield after missing the end of last season with injuries.

Forwards

Despite the hype surrounding young strikers Kekuta Manneh (20 years old) and former Rookie of the Year Darren Mattocks (24), scoring proved difficult last season. The 42 goals Vancouver netted were 6th worst in the league and six fewer than any other playoff team. To bolster their attack, Young DP Octavio Rivero was signed from Chile, where he scored 10 goals in only 18 appearances last season. Rivero looks ready to contribute from day one, having scored a brace in his preseason debut.

Prognosis

Vancouver has a very young team that looks to be both fun and frustrating to watch this season. While the attack has been improved, a drop-off in defensive quality is likely. It will be difficult to return to the playoffs in a loaded Western Conference, but if the defense can meld and Rivero can score, the sky is the limit.

2015 ASA Preview: Columbus Crew

*xG = expected goals, xA = expected assists, xGD = expected goal differential. For more information see our xGoals by Team page.

By Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

I'm not sure you all remember, but last off-season about this time I talked up Columbus. I liked Federico Higuaín a lot more than was healthy (I've since sought help—only to run away) and low and behold I stumbled across a pretty good (read as: lucky) prediction.

This year we all know about Will Trapp, Higuaín is still Higuaín, Steve Clarke may be a top-three keeper in MLS and they've got perhaps one of the most underrated defenses of MLS. Oh, and they added a bunch of pieces too.

The Coach

Gregg Berhalter is back in 2015 and contrary to last season, people aren't questioning his peculiar methods and tactics. Last year he pushed his full back hard into attacking areas, focused on wing play, and did it all by possession based soccer through the middle and allowing a 20-year old to pick out passes to his attackers down field. The result saw much of his team grow from potential into a systematic and fundamental line-up that flourished immensely under that tutelage.

His ability to not just find 'MLS guys' and fit them into his system, but to plug and play the lineup when needed and to even lose guys like Alavaro Rey, and Giancarlo Gonzalez along the way shows his ability not just as a manager, but also as someone that has a keen insight into his players.

Berhalter, in just 15 short months, has taken a club that looked to be on a very sharp declining trajectory after the 2013 season and injected them with new life that saw them take third in the East in 2014 and reached the playoffs after two seasons of missing out. For now, forget about what happened in the playoffs and the dismantling they took at the hands of Lee Nguyen and company. This is a coach that showed his team should be taken seriously in 2015.

The Goalkeeper

Steve Clark was always someone that sat on the periphery of American Soccer, succeeding over in Norway with Hønefoss BK, a team he help get promoted to the Tippeligaen and then watched be relegated the year he left. While he was a returning US international, he was a quiet returner and there were some, such as myself, that may have questioned whether Andy Gruenebaum's exodus was fair. That being said, Clark had an outstanding year being credited with saving nearly six goals more than should have been expected.

Clark's advanced numbers such as available 90, reach 90 and height 90 all closely mimic that of the season Bill Hamid had, but with more shots on goal. Much like how Hamid's accomplishments were questionably attributed to the DC United Defense, much of Clark's performances are heaped upon the Crew's defense—though with much more validity. Columbus posted both below average shots against and shots on goal per match. Additionally, his Dist10, which is The 10th percentile distance to goal (in yards) for shots faced, was in the bottom-three among starting keepers.

An easy way of saying this is that Clark had a good year and was further helped by having a good defense. It's extremely difficult to say what this 2015 season has in store for him, but as of right now I'd put him as a candidate for Keeper of the Year.

The Defense

The defense was good in 2014, and it's possible it got even better in the offseason. While he has been great for them, the Crew may have the chance to upgrade Tyson Wahl at centerback. It's not that Austrian Emanuel Pogatetz wasn't around at the end of last season (remember how well Berhalter did at actually providing leadership rather than simply managing) so much as it was just not the best timing to shake up the starting lineup with Wahl performing well.

This offseason, “Pog” aka Mad Dog didn't leave Columbus but stayed and trained and focused on being a member of Crew SC, which is an incredibly encouraging sign of someone that not only wants to be at the club but wants to do well.

Pogatetz will likely have the starting job this season with Wahl as depth, and he'll be coupled with Michael Parkhurst. I've never been a huge Parkhurst fan myself, and his sub three duels won p90 along with the rate at which he won headers (45%) raises further questions. But should Clark be able to dominate the aerial challenges when they come, every thing should be fine.

The biggest story to coming out of the offseason for the defense is who starts at fullback. Waylon Francis and Hernan Grana would typically start, but through a series of fortunate events during the MLS SuperDraft they landed Chris Klute, too. All three are capable of starting at fullback, with Klute capable of being played on either side. Just one year ago Klute produced a 3.69 expected assists (xA) from the left full back position. Likewise, Francis posted a 3.18 xA in 2014. It should be a tough decision all the way around.

The Midfielders

I'm not sure what to say about the midfield besides that it's one of the most gifted and deepest in MLS. Toni Tchani, Justin Meram, Ben Speas, Hector Jimenez, Ethan Finlay, Wil Trapp, Romain Gall, Kristinn Steindorsson and, yes, even Kevan George have starting XI potential in this group. While it's pretty simple that Tchani and Trapp will have the middle on lock down, the outside wide-positions are less certain.

Trapp is amazing and I don't think there is anything more that I want to say on the subject of him except I can't wait to see what he does another year older. Tchani is a duel winning machine (5th in total duels won, with 203) and pairs brilliantly with Trapp in the midfield.

Looking outside, Meram will start the season with a suspension and thus probably give way to Steindorsson for at least the first match. Despite all the love that people have given Meram this off-season, it's Finlay that has my attention. His 10 expected goals with change compiled in only 1800 minutes is impressive and I'm very interested in seeing him get more time this season. Beyond a flash of the obvious, Gall (who was loads of fun to watch during the U-20 CONCACAF tournament) along with Speas and George will push their counterparts for playing time.

The Forwards

Anyone that knows me or listens to the podcast is probably pretty familiar with my love of Federico Higuaín. Is he a midfielder? Is he a forward-type? False nine? Who cares? I put him in the forward category and I'm sure someone on Reddit is going to rip me for it. Whatever. My bottom line: Higuaín makes goals happen, pure and simple. Let's just take a moment not to care how we define it.

We have a data set with four years of data, and despite only playing three of those seasons, Higuaín finishes 12th overall in total expected goals created (46.58). Which is bananas. His shot-to-key pass ratio, which gives us a small bit of insight into whether the individual is inclined as a shooter, a balanced creator, or simply a provider, is heavily in favor of him creating shots (0.78). That being said he's still accumulated 25 expected goals scored over 6,000 minutes. Again, this is bananas. These are video game type numbers and it only serves to prove he's easily a top-five player in MLS.

In years past, Higuaín has either worked underneath a striker or teamed with one that takes a volume shot approach to scoring. Basically they take everything that Higuian gives them and try to make something out of it. Guys like Jairo Arrieta and Dominic Oduro have not been to the liking of Berhalter for one reason or another.

I'm not against the idea of quantity over quality as it's not necessarily a terrible approach, considering the base level finishing skills by the average starting striker in MLS. And I'm not convinced either Arrieta or Oduro were terrible experiments. I have long toyed with trying to figure out what happened to Arrieta in Columbus and if he was misused or underused or what. Oduro gets a bad rap, but he contributed 47 goals out of an expected 45 over 9,400 minutes the last four seasons. He's done this with four different teams (now a fifth) while being pushed and pulled between midfield and striker. I'm a fan and I think Montreal got a very good player on the cheap.

Looking to 2015, Berhalter and company look to partner Higuaín with Kei Kamara... we think. Most people seem to continue thinking Kamara can't play striker because he was largely used a wide forward during the past few years. I don't think it matters what he did previously in Columbus because Berhlater has used him up top in the pre-season, and most pundits believe he'll continue to be used in that role. It makes sense.

The scary thing for Crew fans is that Kamara has shown worse shot positioning during his time with Sporting KC than either Arrieta or Oduro, though that's possibly more to do with the position and role he was fulfilling. Looking at our data set (so excluding the likes of Kaka, David Villa, ect), Kamara finished 10th* in expected goals for this season, contributing 15 total goals.

Additionally, I have a strong feeling that one of Aaron Schoenfeld or Adam Bedell will have some big performances. Both are well liked by the minimal data that we have and having a guy like Higuian that can put them in great positions to take shots only amplifies the likelihood of their success. I also feel the need to reference Sagi Lev-Ari, who I know nothing about besides his history playing at California State Northridge and being born in Haifa, Israel. It'll be interesting to watch his young career.

Summary

Last season Columbus was an average attacking team. Largely lead by Higuaín, the emergence of Finlay, and a bit of luck, too. Their expected goals was only 1.39 per game, tied for ninth with New England. The addition of both Kamara and Steindorsson should hopefully bring more offense over the next year and with more time for the club to meld it could all lend to some really positive results.

That being said, the club was led to a third place finish because of their defense and on pure talent weren't the third best team in the Eastern Conference. Their expected goal difference in even game states was actually in the negative, and could indicate that the nice narrative I gave at the beginning of this introduction might be a bit skewed.

The club held 54% possession and turned that into 12% possession in the attacking half. They took the fight to their opponents with a possession in the final third ratio of 1.13, meaning they averaged more control in the attacking in than their opponents did on the opposite end. So who knows. Overrated? Underrated? Maybe just rated?

The Crew have the potential to take the number one seed in the East, and really, they probably could even be a dark horse for the Supporter Shield. But while I'm a huge fan of a lot of the parts and coach Berhalter, I feel that something a bit more down to earth is in store for this season. My guess they regress to the mean on their expected goals and end up fourth in the East.

 

*I excluded Diego Valeri from this data set for a couple reasons, first because we're not really sure when he'll return this season and second because at this stage I don't project him to play 2500 minutes.

2015 ASA Preview: Sporting Kansas City

*xG = expected goals, xA = expected assists, xGD = expected goal differential. For more information see our xGoals by Team page.

By Matthias Kullowatz (@mattyanselmo)

2014 Review

When August rolled around, Sporting Kansas City looked poised to make another deep playoff run. Sporting led the Eastern Conference in just about everything that mattered: points, shot differential, goal differential, expected goal differential...you get the picture. But over its last 13 games, Sporting mustered just 11 points and sputtered its way into the fifth seed (see the season progression chart above). It would be easy to chalk it up to bad luck and small sample sizes, but let's first take a closer look at those those 13 games.

SKC Offense Games Shots Avg. Dist CrossPct GoalsF xGoalsF
Before August 21 14.3 20.4 18.9% 1.43 1.53
Aug/Sept/Oct 13 12.8 22.3 13.9% 1.31 1.15

SKC Defense Games Shots Avg. Dist CrossPct GoalsA xGoalsA
Before August 21 9.6 20.8 15.4% 0.86 1.11
Aug/Sept/Oct 13 11.4 21.9 14.8% 1.62 1.18

Interestingly, expected goals suggests that it was Sporting's offense that led to its downfall during the last 13 games. But results--that is, actual goals--shows that SKC's defense was to blame.

Offensively, it seems that Sporting changed style significantly, moving away from getting such a high proportion of shots off crosses. Whether it was tactics or luck, Sporting's finishing improved drastically during that last third of the season, and it made up for a decline in quantity and (apparent) quality of its shots.

Defensively, expected goals didn't detect much of a change, and yet Sporting allowed nearly twice as many goals per game over the last 13 games. Six more goals were scored against Sporting than expected over that time, or perhaps more emphatically, teams playing against SKC scored 140% of the goals they were expected to score. This might sound like a symptom of a backline in flux, but SKC was finally healthy at this point. Matt Besler, Aurelien Collin, and Seth Sinovic all started more than half of these games, and at least two started 11 of the 13 games. Additionally, Sporting was playing well defensively earlier in the season anyway, and that was when it was dealing with injuries and World Cup festivities.

It's tempting to say that Sporting's sharp defensive decline was just bad luck, but there were a few things different about those 13 games worth mentioning. 21-year-old Jon Kempin played more than 300 minutes in goal, a period in which SKC gave up slightly more expected goals than usual, and in which SKC gave up even more actual goals than that. It's a small sample size, but Kempin's tenure resulted in giving up nearly three goals more than we would have otherwise expected.

And during all those other minutes down the stretch, when Andy Gruenebaum was keeping, the average shots he faced were better placed in the goal mouth than the league rate. Three goals better it turns out, making up the six-goal difference between actual goals allowed and expected goals allowed over that rough stretch. Why were they better placed? Maybe something about Sporting's tactics changed during the last third of the season. As mentioned, the offense seemingly attacked through the middle more often, or perhaps via longball more often, generating fewer shots off crosses. This may have led to pushing more numbers ahead, and to more vulnerability on the counter. This is a phenomenon to which expected goals would not be very sensitive.

Or maybe it was nothing. We often get caught up in splitting seasons at arbitrary dates to push a narrative. While I just spent a few hundred words suggesting that something might have changed, I haven't found an obvious cause. After all, New England went through a few streaks of its own, some more explicable than others, on its way to the MLS Cup Final. I simulated 10,000 13-game seasons in which a team allows the distribution of shots that Sporting did, and between five and 10 percent of the simulations had Sporting allowing at least as many goals as it did. The defensive let down could have just been a fluke.

2015 Outlook

Sporting returns its three most recognizable names and arguably most valuable players in Besler, Graham Zusi, and Dominic Dwyer—captains of the defensive, middle, and attacking thirds, respectively. However, there were some important changes to the roster this off-season, starting at the back.

After giving minutes to Eric Kronberg, Gruenebaum, and Kempin in 2014, it looks as though Sporting will turn to Chilean international Luis Marin. Marin has eight caps for the Chilean national team and is only five years removed from a roster spot in 2010’s World Cup. At 31 years old, he presumably has a lot of goalkeeping juice left. Considering that SKC’s defense was top notch not too long ago with the likes of an aging and overrated Jimmy Nielsen in net, Marin should be seen as a welcome improvement.

Defense

Moving up the field, the loss of Aurelien Collin is the biggest blow to the back line. However, Sporting put up another strong year defensively in 2014 largely without Chance Myers, who will be returning this season from a ruptured Achilles injury. Perhaps surprisingly, Myers has matched Collin over the past four seasons in offensive production, as measured by xGoals added to xAssists (xG + xA, adjusted for minutes), a metric measuring total value of all the shots and key passes that a player produces. Though Myers and Collin play distinct positions, in essence this is like a trade of one for the other from Kansas City's perspective. Additionally, Sporting posted its best xGD in Myers’ 609 minutes relative to every other player.** Sporting returns long-tenured Sinovic, the also-injured Ike Opara, and now-broken-in Kevin Ellis. My hunch is that Collin’s absence will not be nearly as costly as many might think.

Midfield

Though Zusi often plays on th wing, his role is more that of a midfieder. Zusi will be joined by familiar faces Paulo Nagamura and former USMNT capper Benny Feilhaber. Many of Nagamura's minutes are likely to go to Honduran Roger Espinoza, which won't make Sporting's midfield any worse. Though our data isn't refined enough to prove it, I strongly feel that Sporting's play in the midfield is part of what makes its defense appear so effective. Midfielders that can hold the ball, threaten the opposition's defense, and avoid costly turnovers in dangerous areas of the field surely take pressure off the defense. My sense is that this midfield core does exactly that.

Forwards

Sporting played much of last season with just one striker, Dwyer. Combinations of C.J. Sapong, Sal Zizzo, Toni Dovale, Soony Saad, and Jacob Petersen were employed at the wings. Zizzo is off to the Red Bulls, and Sapong to Philly, so those minutes are likely to be replaced in part by Hungarian international Krisztian Nemeth. Nemeth played in 25 games for Dutch Eredivisie side Roda JC Kerkrade in the 2013-14 season, where he scored eight goals to go along with six assists. More important than his counting stats output is probably the fact that a first-division Dutch club put its faith in him over 25 games. Nemeth is almost sure to be a boost to an underrated attacking unit.

This offense gets some flak for producing low overall goal and expected goal totals, but much of that could be due to pace and style of play. Alex at Tempo Free Soccer shows that Sporting ranks highly in possessions per game and passes per possession, while limiting its opponents' passes per possession to the lowest rate in the league. This patient offense and high pressure defense has worked to maintain a positive possession ratio, shot differential, and goal differential for some years now, and SKC should have the personnel to keep it up in 2015.

Despite research that suggests offensive numbers are more sustainable than defensive numbers over a single season, Sporting’s system has been consistently producing these outputs for at least four seasons. Whether it’s style and pace of play or personnel or some of both, Sporting still manages to produce positive results. Its few roster losses should be mitigated by the new faces and the club's system, and I expect Sporting to finish in the middle of the Western Conference playoff picture with a three or four seed, somewhere behind LA and Seattle.

*Though Sporting's xGD was a little behind that of Seattle and LA, SKC didn't have to face either of those teams until a potential championship game. In other words, its path was paved a little smoother. 
**While I would say generally that my first stab at Plus-Minus stats produced a mostly worthless metric, this is a case where perhaps something can be gleaned. Comparing Myers only to his teammates isolates the team variable, and using a player that played enough minutes for expected goals to begin stabilizing but not enough to represent a majority of the team’s minutes, gives us a treatment vs. placebo-like look at Myers’ contributions. Typically full-time players will assume the xGD of the team, which is essentially useless information. In any case, there’s evidence to suggest that a nearly-full season of Myers will adequately fill the hole left by Collin.

2015 ASA Preview: New York Red Bulls

*xG = expected goals, xA = expected assists, xGD = expected goal differential. For more information see our xGoals by Team page.

By Harrison Crow (@harrison_crow)

There is chaos. There is anarchy. Then, there is the New York Red Bulls…

What an off-season! First, world legend Thierry Henry retires from soccer, the club then fires the most successful coach in the history of the club on heels of another successful season while going into an off-season faced with the adversity of competing against a third club in their direct market and finally, the club agreed to mutually cut ties with designed player and star Tim Cahill in an awkward situation that had contentiously been building over the last six-months.

*Sigh*

The New York Red Bulls, a team that could be one of the cornerstones a league like MLS is built upon and marketed, have become, instead, a meme for what not to do.

It's not that this is a new thing for supporters in Harrison, New Jersey so much as their patience is finally reaching a breaking point. The team town hall meeting was a contentious event that did little to re-establish any type of good will between the club and it's supporters. Instead the meeting bubbled over with supporters shouting and chanting angrily at their new head coach, their sporting director and one of the teams most beloved figures in goal, keeper Luis Robles.

It's too bad that all this stuff happened because it masks the smart personnel moves made by the club this off-season. They traded Ambroise Oyongo and Eric Alexander for Felipe Martins and the top allocation order ranking, which they flipped into to Sacha Kljestan. They brought in Ronald Zubar from French Ligue 1 and veteran winger Sal Zizzo by way of their new MLS rival NYCFC. A hugely forgotten moment was being able to acquire a top MLS ready talent in Leo Stoltz through the draft and sign him. All these moves were great and created a deeper talent pool all at a reasonable cost.

All this while they renegotiated Bradley Wright-Phillips deal and rewarded him for his exceptional golden boot season by making him a designated player. This enabled the Red Bulls to keep their new game changing talent in New York, a challenge that some thought could end badly and result in them selling him off.

They even added a coach that's been lauded for years as having potential in Jesse Marsch. Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to turn a blind eye to what happened but as obtuse as it was to fire Petke, but Marsch was unjustly relieved of his role in Montreal. Viewed outside the context of Petke's firing, Marsch could still be a very good hire. According to smart know-it-all analysts, he has potential that would fit in a place like New York.

That said, let me turn on my emotions for a moment. I approach much of my analysis and writing free of how I feel and sometimes a bit cold and heartless.

They fired Mike Petke. A guy who lived, breathed and worshiped the club and their supporters above all else. I'm not a New York guy, I'm not even a Petke guy. But I'm an old school guy that loves to think of organizations as still having some semblance of loyalty and integrity.

Petke was the type that would have, probably, coached in New York as long as he was able or felt he could do it in an honorable manner. I believe that when the time came that he didn't feel he was the right fit for the club he would have stepped down and there was have been some sort of fairy tale ending.

That did not happen and its sad. It disappoints me for the fans of the New York Red Bulls that they don't get this opportunity. But this is a road that too many supporters must one day travel. A road that takes us down an ugly alley where we look at our club and realize this goes beyond simple sporty banter and into a sadness that cripples and pains the heart.

I've had those moments of utter disappointment and my greatest hope for all Red Bulls fans is that this season and these players bring relief and abridge your frustration.

Roads go ever ever on,

Over rock and under tree,

By caves where never sun has shone,

By streams that never find the sea;

Over snow by winter sown,

And through the merry flowers of June,

Over grass and over stone,

And under mountains in the moon.

Roads go ever ever on

Under cloud and under star,

Yet feet that wandering have gone

Turn at last to home afar.

Eyes that fire and sword have seen

And horror in the halls of stone

Look at last on meadows green

And trees and hills they long have known.

J. R. R. Tolkien, The Road Goes Ever On

The (new) Coach

After that preamble I feel like I should hate Marsch just the tiniest bit. But how he entered the Red Bulls also wasn't his fault.

Marsch spent a season in Montreal in 2012 and then he was gone for... whatever reason fancied Joey Saputo. There was supposedly key differentiating philosophies between Marsch and the front office, whatever those are.

Marsch used a single striker formation 23 times out of 34 regular season games, this despite starting the season in some sort of two man striker formation 10 out of the first 12 games of the season. He adjusted to what worked, and found how to motivate his people. He also incorporated mid-season moves such as the one that brought Marco Di Vaio to Montreal.

The Goalkeeper

We have three years of data that says Robles probably a bit above average as a keeper in MLS. But he positions himself well and gets to the balls he should. His defense has played a big part over that time, with the distance per shot on goal is in the upper half of keepers, meaning that they don't get as close to his goal compared to other defenses. Some of that credit goes back to the keeper for keeping his backline organized.

The Defense

One thing of concern their central defense, but they have options. Over the last few months the Red Bulls had Jhon Kennedy Hurtado in on trial, signed Andrew Jean-Baptiste, bought Ronald Zubar from Ligue 1 (though he may factor into the equation as a full back) and they still have Damien Perrinelle hanging around from last season. Not to mention Armando who was a starter last year and US U20 World Cup starter Matt Miazga.

This all seems like fine depth, but the question is who starts. It's kind of a mess of talent to sort out but it all has potential.

Out wide the club still retains Roy Miller on the left (#CostaRicanFullbacks, seriously why?) and Chris Duvall on the right. Lord only knows what they may do with Conor Lade and since surprisingly being cut by Montreal, Karl Ouimette has found his way to training camp too. Ouimette is likely anxious to find a spot with trying to prove himself worthy of continual call-ups to the Canadian National Team.

The Midfielders

I love the Red Bulls midfield. Well, let me qualify that. I love the individuals that are projected to play in the midfield for the Red Bulls.

Felipe Martins 2012 season, under the guise of Marsch, was his best as a creator providing 7.44 expected assists over 2,300 minutes. The past few years with Montreal Martins has embraced the idea of taking more shots than creating them, with a his shot-to-key pass ratio steadily growing from a balanced 1.01 in 2012 to 1.38 in 2013 and then jumped in 2014 to 1.74, meaning he steadily took more shots than he created.

The question going forward is whether Martins will continue to be deployed centrally. The retirement of Henry and the lack of quality options have some wondering how positionally flexible Martins is and if he could and will be moved out wide.

There are other left midfielders on the roster and the job could still potentially go to either Ruben Bover or newly acquired Zizzo. Bover in his limited time has shown to be more of an attacking player looking for the shot (1.4 shot to key pass ratio), while Zizzo is a more rounded option (1.06 sh/kp ratio). Obviously Zizzo has much more experience but the talent comparison looks like a push overall.

Wide right you have Sam Lloyd, who have seemingly has been firmly planted, grown and matured in his three years with New York in his role. Lloyd primarily used as a facilitator (0.68 sh/kp ratio and 10.1 xA spread across 3800 minutes) will be looked upon to pick up some of the slack lost by Henry’s retirement.

Then of course there is Dax McCarty. Everybody loves Dax McCarty. But… I wish there was a rule to really explain this. The love and suffocating amount of “he’s so undervalued and unappreciated” has reached the point of diminishing returns. It’s like going to see a movie that’s a pretty good movie and the whole day before going to see it, you’re hearing about how AMAZING and FANTASTIC it is. When you watch it you can still like it and appreciate it but it’s like “Eh, okay, it was enjoyable.”

It’s the over hyping of an undervalued object or as I’m now coining it: The McCarty rule.

McCarty is not the best at his position but was an excellent find and was long undervalued. Now we all know and appreciate him for what he does, let’s be happy and move on…

Lastly we have Kljestan.

Look, I know we all “have an idea” about who we think he is as a player but I’ll put money on the fact that there is less than 10% of the soccer fanatics who have actually watched more than two or three Anderlecht games over a single season. Most often it’s people watching YouTube or Vine highlights of situations that exemplify the height of talent rather than having a more complete and contextually driven view of his performance.

This isn’t me poopooing analysis by guys that do their homework like Matt Doyle or even Noah Davis, but someone that wants to talk about his “creative ability”, “skills on the ball” or taking it a step further and talking about his leadership skills. This is either speculation and/or opinions based upon other opinions.

Now we can probably use a bit of logic to build on what little know. Brian Sciaretta, an amazing American soccer journalist, documented Kljestan's involvement in Anderlict’s 4-2-3-1 attack, saying he “played a deeper position." This is likely the same role that he is going to facilitate with Red Bulls and it’s probably a large reason why he was so important to them.

Also we can see that he’s played in 132 games over the last five seasons, averaging 26+ games a season for a club that plays between 30-46 games per season. He facilitates a pretty big role in playing over 50% of those matches for a team that has European aspirations on a yearly basis. He’s most likely of the quality to expect a designated player contract regardless of his affiliation and current standing with the US national team program.

The Strikers

We can go back and forth all day on whether or not Bradley Wright-Phillips production from last year is sustainable. I’ll just say this; in our four year data set, minimum 2500 minutes, only three other players have had a higher shot leverage (the average probability of a shot that correlates to position from goal. Simply put the higher, the better). If you consider his positioning and the fact that Henry only helped him created 25% of his plush 109 shots that finished sixth in the league, he’s still on pace for nearly three shots a game.

Using some (very) rough regression math where I remove key passes and shots made by Wright-Phillips that had direct influence of Henry, I still have approximately 18.55 total expected goals over 2500 minutes. Including BWP, there were over eight players that had over 18 expected goals last year and six in 2013. They don’t grow on trees.

Now this is assuming two things. First that shot leverage is a true indicator of talent and that it stabilizes. What we can say is that outside of direct service and participation on goals scored and created by Wright-Phillips, he was still a fantastic scorer last year.

This year it’s a question mark and while I personally believe he’ll succeed I don’t think we have any firm analysis that proves that theory. But there is plenty there that shows he was all that and a bag of chips in 2014.

The biggest issue here is a matter of depth. Peggy Luyindula is now 35 and will be 36 in May. I doubt they put much more than 1,000 minutes on his legs over the course of a season. So what is the back-up plan for if BWP gets injured or needs a match off? Mike Grella? No disrespect to Mr. Grella but I feel that's a rather wide talent gap. But I suppose we'll have to see.

The Summary

New York is a very good team and their offseason additions have helped them stay there. Say what you want about how they went about it, they're as strong or maybe even stronger now than at the end of last season.

Their expected goals in even game states was sixth in MLS and that's pretty indicative of where we think they are in the grand schemes: in the upper half of the league. A playoff birth is the expected goal.

That said, there are a lot of variables with a lot of competition in the East. It could the Red Bulls finishing first in the Eastern Conference, or it could see them missing out on a playoff spot. That being said supporters probably have every right to expect their team will finish in the top three in the East.

 

2015 ASA Preview: Portland Timbers

*xG = expected goals, xA = expected assists, xGD = expected goal differential. For more information see our xGoals by Team page.

By Drew Olsen (@drewjolsen)

The 2014 season was a disappointing one for Portland. A preseason favorite by many to win MLS cup after an impressive run to the 2013 Western Conference finals, the Timbers ultimately finished one point out of the playoff picture.

But there is reason for Timbers fans to have high hopes for 2015. After sitting dead-last in MLS eight weeks into last season, Portland found its old form. The only team that accumulated more points in the 2nd half of the season was the eventual MLS cup winning Galaxy.

Portland made big offseason moves to bolster their suspect defense, but have also endured a slate of injuries to their midfield. And Coach Caleb Porter still needs to find a way to balance the playing time and talents of his young strikers. The success or failure of the Timbers season depends on how those three issues are handled.

Defense

Since the beginning of our dataset in 2011, below are each of Portland’s expected goals against (xGA) and where that ranked in the league. A prolific offense has made the team's goal differential look respectable, but aside from the 2013 season when Donovan Ricketts won Goalkeeper of the Year, preventing goals has been a recurring struggle. 

Year GA Rank xGA Rank GD Rank xGD Rank
2011 1.39 14th 1.22 12th -0.29 15th -0.11 13th
2012 1.58 17th 1.43 15th -0.65 16th -0.18 14th
2013 0.97 2nd 1.13 3rd 0.59 1st 0.23 3rd
2014 1.49 14th 1.54 17th 0.23 8th 0.00 10th

For that reason, nearly all of Portland's offseason changes came to improve their struggling defensive corps. Step one was addition by subtraction; aging goalkeeper Donovan Ricketts was selected by Orlando in the expansion draft, fullback Michael Harrington (with his large salary) was sent to Colorado, and controversial and unpredictable centerback Pa Modou-Kah departed for the Whitecaps. While all three players had extended periods of success wearing the green and gold, each had their problems. The 37 year old Ricketts had begun to show serious signs of slowing down, Harrington had lost his starting job to the more attack-minded Jorge Villafana, and Kah was prone to inexplicable and costly mistakes.

Stepping in for Ricketts and Kah are two players that Porter hopes to build his team around. Veteran Nat Borchers was acquired in a trade with RSL and Ghanaian Adam Kwarasey (who you may remember from the first minute of the USA's the World Cup) was brought from the Swedish Allsvenskan where he won 2013 Goalkeeper of the Year.

The intentions of these signings are clear. Kwarasey is a Neuer-light style keeper; he isn't afraid to come at attackers outside his box, and is very comfortable with the ball at his feet. This style is in direct opposition to Ricketts, who rarely ventured outside the 18 yard box and preferred throwing the ball into touch rather than kicking it. Kwarasey would seem to fit much better into Porter's possession and passing focused system, allowing the team to build up from the back rather than beginning with Ricketts' booming punts.

While Kwarasey is still largely unknown, Borchers is an established MLS vet. He'll bring plenty of playoff experience to the backline, pairing with DP Liam Ridgewell in an attempt to provide some stability to a centerback pairing that has been in flux seemingly since Portland's first MLS season.

The young Alvas Powell, who already has 12 caps for Jamaica, came on strong in the second half of 2014 and will start on the right side of defense. While his defending is sometimes suspect, he has proven very effective in aiding the attack up the sidelines.

Villafana lines up on the left behind Rodney Wallace, with whom he has developed a great rapport. Like Powell, he isn't afraid to get forward, and his crosses are often things of beauty. For the first time to start a season, Portland seems to have its back four locked in place. It isn't overstating things to say that the success or failure of the Timbers' season may ride on the ability of Kwarasey and Borchers to seamlessly integrate themselves alongside Ridgewell, Powell, and Villafana.

Midfield

In front of Borchers no significant changes were made. This has been one of the top scoring teams in MLS since the arrival of Porter, and the team looks content to stick with the attacking talent it already has. When healthy, this is arguably the best midfield in the league. Unfortunately, playmaker and magician Diego Valeri is out until at least May with a torn ACL, captain Will Johnson will miss the first month of the season recovering from a broken legand Ben Zemanski, who was filling in for Johnson, tore his ACL in the timbers preseason game on Sunday. To say the Timbers' midfield is has been depleted by injury is an understatement.

But that is not to say the midfield will be a bad one. Wallace has been an elite attacking wing down the left since Porter moved him up from defense. Diego Chara can be counted on to be in the top five in MLS in both fouls and tackles, and is one of the most intelligent and underrated players in the league. Darlington Nagbe continued to progress last season despite a dip in goal-scoring (he had a career high in assists), and led all of MLS with 238 duels won. Finally, Gaston "La Gata" Fernandez has proven a capable fill-in for Valeri, and would probably be a regular starter on most MLS teams.

The question mark in the midfield will be who steps into the hole left by Johnson and Zemanski. If Porter opts not to change his formation or tactics, Jack Jewsbury or rookie Nick Besler are the closest to a like-for-like swap. But Porter has suggested in interviews he may instead switch to a single holding midfielder - Chara - which would likely move 2nd year player George Fochive or newcomer Dairon Asprilla, who has impressed in preseason, into the starting lineup.

Unlike the defense, Portland's midfield is likely to look the same at the end of 2015 as it did the end of 2014. It also is likely that a very different lineup will start game one than game thirty-four. Establishing balance for a midfield that has been ravaged by injuries will be the most challenging job for Porter to start the season.

Strikers

Adi or Urruti? Urruti or Adi?

While it is still unclear who will be providing them service from the midfield, Fanendo Adi and Maximiliano Urruti are the clear-cut choices up top. With nine goals in 24 appearances last year and a DP contract, Adi is Porter's choice to start. He is a giant 6'4", 185 pound target-man who will hold up play and work off of Fernandez and Nagbe to create chances. His 0.7 expected goals per 90 minutes put him among the likes of Alvaro Saborio, Obafemi Martins, and Bradley Wright-Phillips last year.

But Urruti is the fan favorite. His pace and flair off the bench was a big lift for the Timbers last season, and he seemed to only score important goals in close games. That was in contrast to Adi, who had four multi-goal games, but all four of those games were decided by two goals or more. Adi running up the score against Chivas just wasn't as impressive as Urruti getting winners versus the Galaxy and Red Bulls. 

These are two young (both are 24) goalscorers that many teams would clamor to acquire. For Portland to do well it will have to avoid the early-season scoring drought that dragged down the 2014 season. Rather ominously, goals have been hard to come by for the 1st team in preseason. If they want to contend for MLS Cup, Adi and Urruti will be counted on to produce.

Prognosis

Plenty of questions remain for the Timbers. Will this season emulate 2013's success or 2014's disappointment? Is the defense finally stable or will the new additions fail to fit in? Will Valeri and Johnson return to their old form when they come back from injury, or will they be slow to recover? Will Adi and Urruti score in bunches, or will they struggle to find service in the right positions? The answer to the first question will be determined by the answer to the others.

This is a team with a wide range of possibilities. If the defense is reliable, the midfield can adapt, and the attack is as expected, Portland is a dark-horse candidate for MLS Cup and the US Open Cup. If Kwarasey and the defense can't mesh, the injuries to the midfield can't be covered up, and the goals don't come, this team could just as easily finish near the bottom of a loaded Western Conference. Only time will tell.