ASA Fantasy League Update Round 1: Gotta Have Higuain

MLS Fantasy players, it's that time of the week to make your transfers--if you haven't already--and get that starting XI ready for the weekend. Obviously the big winners of the week are basically anyone who owned either Mauro Rosales, Mario Diaz---or to go in a different direction, less 'M' related direction---Federico Higuain. Didn't have any of those picks? Not a big deal, now is a team to reload and get cleaned up. We've got round 2 this weekend with some interesting match-ups. Here is the dream XI for last week:

And here are the current league standings as of round 1.

#	Team	Manager	RD	%AARd	TOT	Team$	Captain	Points
1	Khal Jogo	Bazzo	79	1.927	79	119.3	Rosales	12
2	This Stuff Kicks	Cris Pannullo	75	1.829	75	120.7	Keane	4
2	Major League Clowns	Tom Worville	75	1.829	75	118.8	Higuain	22
4	Bridgeburners FC	Chris Gluck	74	1.805	74	120.2	Valeri	4
5	Cal Poly FC	Emil Barycki	73	1.780	73	115.2	Higuain	22
6	En Fuego	e margolis	70	1.707	70	120.3	Nagbe	6
7	LingeringwithIntent	Jason Onorati	69	1.683	69	119.1	Higuain	22
8	The Other Higuain	Jacob Beckett	64	1.561	64	119.7	Urruti	4
8	A.S. Trincamp	Martin F	64	1.561	64	119.3	Higuian	22
10	DallasTilIDie	Benjamin Hester	62	1.512	62	116.6	Keane	4
11	Real Sporting Utd FC	Eric J. Walcott	60	1.463	60	118	Valeri	4
12	WOMBATZ	Casey Cannon	59	1.439	59	114.6	Higuain	22
13	NotToBeFeared	Harrison Crow	53	1.293	53	119.6	Keane	4
14	PasarChino!	Jason Poon	48	1.171	48	120.2	Higuain	22
15	Amrodg	Mick Lathrop	44	1.073	44	116.2	Martins	4
16	PDX Hoosiers	Brad Snook	39	0.951	39	120.2	Nagbe	6
16	Draft Code United	Louis Pardillo	39	0.951	39	119.5	Beiler	0
18	PortlandatHeart	Forrest Ellis	34	0.829	34	118.7	Valeri	4
19	Tootie Urruti	Drew Olsen	33	0.805	33	118.6	Magee	0
20	letskillrobots	Bill Vegas	22	0.537	22	117.6	Magee	0
	Averages		56.8	1.385	56.8	118.62		9.4

RD: Round Points

%AARd: Percentage Above Average Round Points

Team$: How much the team spent on their players

A quick thought---and my heart goes out to our own PasarChino! for this one---you gotta start Rimando, buddy! You sat the highest point total in the league. Ouch! As for our crew here at ASA, most of us (Jacob, Drew, Jason, myself and poor Bill) did okay, with the most notable stand out of the bunch being Cris Pannullo and a bit farther down Chris Gluck. We'll head to the next round and see if those two can distance themselves from the rest of the ASA community.

Again, this is for an undisclosed, not-yet-valued prize that is available to all whom play. It could be a Meatloaf interactive blu-ray, it could be a soccer ball, it could be a scarf of your choosing. Matty might spend a couple hours on Skype teaching you how to use R. Who knows what we'll come up with. The only promise is that it won't be terrible. Code to enter is 9593-1668, should you care to join in the fun/recklessness that is fantasy sports.

The three teams that are noticeably absent this round are Columbus Crew, DC United and LA Galaxy. I'm sure this will kind of cause a bit of reshuffling to occur as many, including myself, had been sporting Robbie Keane as their captain, and it will most certainly require some movement along the bench. But this is where you earn the coveted prize. No, not the Sheva, though I'm sure we can come up with an equally inspiring annual trophy name.

I'm sure you all have better advice/thoughts than what I have for MLS fantasy, so I'll point you towards a couple of sites that have some stats and feed back on last week.

- Mr. Fantasy, Ben Jata, recaps the hap's with round 1.

- Big D Soccer does a nice preview of not just Dallas FC players but also some thoughts on MLS as a whole.

- Sticking with the Texas theme, Dynamo Theory has some fantastic numbers/stuff that deserves recognition for their work. Great job by TraviTheRabbi and I would say give him a follow on twitter but I don't see any such thing connected to his account, and that makes me a sad panda. Anyways...go read the article here. Solid, solid stuff.

I leave you with the current top-50 hottest players being selected as of 10:30 last night. I've equipped you to make some good decisions. Now go forth and conquer. The catch is that only one of you will win. Anyone have any top secrets for how they plan on winning the league? I hear finding people that stop goals and in return score goals are really good to have? Any other methods or suggestions?

Player	Team	Pos	Selected	Price	Round	Total
Sarkodie	HOU	DEF	33.9%	$6.6	9	9
Remick	SEA	DEF	33.8%	$4.1	8	8
Fagundez	NE	MID	28.9%	$8.0	3	3
Yedlin	SEA	DEF	26.0%	$7.5	7	7
Kennedy	CHV	GKP	25.6%	$4.5	4	4
Fondy	CHV	FWD	24.9%	$4.0	0	0
Rimando	RSL	GKP	23.3%	$6.1	15	15
Magee	CHI	FWD	21.5%	$10.5	0	0
Bruin	HOU	FWD	21.2%	$8.2	15	15
Zusi	KC	MID	20.6%	$11.0	3	3
Plata	RSL	FWD	20.1%	$7.0	9	9
Griffiths	COL	DEF	19.3%	$4.0	0	0
Moor	COL	DEF	18.6%	$7.0	0	0
Collin	KC	DEF	18.0%	$10.0	3	3
Loyd	DAL	DEF	17.9%	$5.5	0	0
Jewsbury	POR	DEF	17.7%	$6.5	2	2
Nagbe	POR	MID	17.1%	$9.5	3	3
Juninho	LA	MID	17.0%	$7.0	3	3
Keane	LA	FWD	17.0%	$10.9	2	2
Cronin	SJ	MID	17.0%	$6.5	0	0
Porter	DC	MID	16.7%	$5.0	1	1
Ricketts	POR	GKP	16.7%	$6.0	5	5
Harrington	POR	DEF	16.5%	$7.5	3	3
Jimenez	CLB	MID	16.0%	$5.5	6	6
Rosales	CHV	MID	14.7%	$7.6	12	12
Hall	HOU	GKP	14.3%	$6.0	8	8
Valeri	POR	MID	14.1%	$10.5	2	2
Wondolowski	SJ	FWD	13.6%	$9.5	0	0
Higuaín	CLB	FWD	13.5%	$10.5	11	11
Burling	CHV	DEF	12.7%	$5.1	9	9
McNamara	CHV	MID	12.6%	$4.6	7	7
Ashe	HOU	DEF	12.6%	$7.1	11	11
Malki	MTL	MID	12.6%	$4.0	0	0
Donovan	LA	MID	12.5%	$11.0	7	7
Moffat	DAL	MID	12.2%	$5.9	0	0
Palmer-Brown	KC	DEF	11.6%	$4.0	0	0
Defoe	TOR	FWD	11.6%	$10.5	0	0
Horst	HOU	DEF	11.5%	$5.6	8	8
Melia	CHV	GKP	11.1%	$3.0	0	0
Parke	DC	DEF	10.7%	$6.9	2	2
Martins	SEA	FWD	10.7%	$9.5	2	2
Bradley	TOR	MID	10.4%	$10.0	0	0
McBean	LA	FWD	10.0%	$5.0	0	0
E. Miller	MTL	DEF	9.8%	$4.5	2	2
MacMath	PHI	GKP	9.6%	$5.0	3	3
Manneh	VAN	FWD	9.6%	$6.5	1	1
Urruti	POR	FWD	9.4%	$7.0	2	2
Messoudi	MTL	MID	9.0%	$4.0	0	0
Henry	NY	FWD	8.9%	$11.0	0	0
Franklin	DC	DEF	8.8%	$7.9	2	2

ASA Podcast XXXIX: The Band is Back Together!

For the first time in ages Drew, Matthias, and Harrison are reunited. They start by covering this weekend's MLS action with a special focus on expected goals, talk some CONCACAF Champions League, and finish up with a discussion of +/- ratios for individual soccer players. [audio http://americansocceranalysis.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/asa-pod-xxxx.mp3]

How it Happened: Week One

Hello friends. This is the first in what will hopefully be a weekly feature here at ASA by yours truly. First, the background: Not being a fan of any particular MLS team is hard. It's hard to follow an entire league of 19 teams. Seven or eight games a week are difficult to catch up on, even when they aren't all played at the same time. Previously, I've watched highlights and 'condensed games' to try to pick up which teams and players were playing well, but it just doesn't work. The only way to really learn a team's strengths, weaknesses and tendencies is by watching every minute of every game they play. There's no way I can do that with every team in MLS while still working a full-time job. Sorry.

My solution is this: I plan on committing to watching a full 90 minutes of three games per week. This gives me six teams that I'll feel that I truly know (at least for that week), and should certainly teach me a heckuva lot more than just if I just watched their highlight packages. Since this here is an analytical and statistic-focused blog, I'll break down each of the three games by one particular stat or Opta chalkboard image that I think told the story of the game for each team. Think this idea is idiotic? Love it? Please, let me know: feedback is always appreciated. But leave my mom out of this.

DC United vs. Columbus Crew

Stat that told the story for Columbus: 58% of successful passes in attacking half for the fullbacks

The above image is all of the completed passes for Crew fullbacks Waylon Francis and Josh Williams on Saturday. These two players are clearly defenders who aren't afraid to get forward, but the startling frequency with which they were able to get up the field against DC had to have alarm bells ringing for United fans. For folks who prefer numbers to images, here you are: 49 of the 85 passes that Francis and Williams completed (58%) were in the attacking half. That's a pretty solid attacking contribution from two guys who are listed along the back line.

This was made possible for Columbus by a couple of adjustments made by new coach Gregg Berhalter. Centerbacks Michael Parkhurst and Giancarlo Gonzalez split reallllly wide when in possession, allowing both fullbacks to get forward. This was made possible by holding midfielder Wil Trapp, who sat very deep to cover the gap between centerbacks. It's only one game, but it certainly looked like a good strategy in week one for Columbus.

Stat that told the story for DC: 1 attacking player's pass into the penalty area

Really, the above image for Columbus tells a lot of the story for DC, as well: they got hammered because the Crew got the ball wide and stretched DC's shape like a bad hamstring. With a team full of new faces who clearly haven't learned to play with one another yet, the defense was abused by all the space Crew players were able to find. But I can't use the same stat for both teams, so here's what I got for United: one. One successful pass from any of the three players nominally deployed in attack (Eddie Johnson, Fabian Espindola, Luis Silva) that ended in the penalty box.

Seriously: take a look at the Opta Chalkboard above. I get that it's hard to complete passes in the 18, but for the three guys who are tasked with creating chances, there needs to be more than one completed pass that ends up there. Oh, and that one completed pass? It came from a free kick, and ended with a flick-on by Davy Arnaud that didn't even turn into a shot. There was a lot wrong with DC in 2013 and a lot wrong with DC last weekend, but if the new faces of Johnson and Espindola were expected to cure all attacking ills....Ben Olsen may be in for a rude awakening.

Portland Timbers vs. Philadelphia Union

Stat that told the story for Portland: 20 crosses in the second hour of the game

The Timbers came out for the season opener and were dealt a dose of their own medicine from the new-look Philadelphia Union. Playing in a 4-3-3, the Union clogged the center of the field, put a lot of pressure on Portland and really made it difficult for the home team to get into their possession game. But as any good team does, the Timbers made adjustments. After being credited with just two crosses from open play in the games first 35 minutes, Portland emphasized wide play with Michael Harrington getting forward and Darlington Nagbe flaring out wide. After the 35th minute, Opta credited Portland with 20 crosses from open play. Some of this was due to bombing the ball forward as they sought an equalizer late, but recording 10 times as many crosses was certainly the product of an adjustment made by the Timbers.

Stat that told the story for Philadelphia: 12 midfield interceptions & recoveries to start the game

As I said above, the Union started the game very strong, with their midfield really clogging up Portland's attempts to possess the ball. The midfield three of Maurice Edu, Brian Carroll and Vincent Nogueira seemed to be replicating some of what made Portland so successful in 2013: clogging the middle of the field and winning a majority of loose balls. Opta credits those three with 12 combined interceptions and recoveries in the game's first 22 minutes. However, as also noted above, Portland adjusted to the Union's set-up and began to emphasize wide play. The Union didn't really adjust to the adjustment, as the Timbers clearly became more and more comfortable as the game went on. After those 12 interceptions/recoveries in the first 22 minutes, Edu, Carroll and Nogueria only recorded seven more the rest of the game.

LA Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake

Stat that told the story for LA: 2.39 expected goals; 0 actual goals

If you're at this site, chances are you know the concept behind expected goals. If not, scroll down a ways and read up. Anyway, look at the above image: that's not a map of shots that typically leads to a shutout. According to the numbers run by ASA's own Harrison Crow, a league average team would've finished 2.39 goals from those shots. They finished zero. If you aren't into the stats and would prefer the English commentator's version: Robbie Keane missed some sitters, Landon Donovan was unlucky not to finish any of his half-chances, and Juninho and Marcelo Sarvas combined for some speculative efforts that nearly bulged the ol' onion bag. Oh, and Nick Rimando had a magisterial day in net to keep his clean sheet.

Stat that told the story for RSL: Joao Plata's complete game

I'm cheating a little here because that's not a real stat, but any time there's a 1-0 game, it's tough to leave out any conversation about the lone goal scorer. In this case, that's the diminutive Ecuadorian, Joao Plata. Plata debuted for Toronto FC three seasons ago, and it seems like he's been around for a lot longer than your average 22-year-old. But it's true. Plata is only 22, and if Saturday night is any indication, he could be in for his best season in MLS yet. Not only was Plata's finish on the game's only goal very cool, he was consistently playing with a lot more tactical awareness than I've seen out of him in the past. Whether it was setting up Alvaro Saborio for golden chances or making intelligent runs to stretch the defense and open up space for Javier Morales, Plata had a very, very good game against LA.

MLS Possession with Purpose Week 1: The best (and worst) performances

Greetings one and all as the new season begins in MLS. In case you missed it I published an article on here not to long ago that dives into my Possession with Purpose Indices to include a general introduction on what it is and means as well as some explanations behind the Indices. If you haven't gone through the article before or if you need a refresh click here.

Here's how the teams fared, compared to each other, in Possession with Purpose Week #1:

Observations:

This Index is not influenced by previous season results; it's a new year and a fresh/clean slate for teams to build from as they all challenge each other to make the Playoffs. So all you supporters of teams that didn't do so well this past year - fahgetaboutit!

Next thing to consider is that positive numbers indicate the team performed better in attack and defense than their opponent - in looking at the diagram note that Columbus is at the far left while their opponent is on the far right.  As the season unfolds these overall positions should change.  As noted Columbus had the best overall attack compared to all other teams this past week; here are their percentages in the six steps of PWP:

Another top performer was Houston - some consider, last year, they were a sleeping giant that simply didn't wake up in time for a solid Playoff run - I do - in their first game this year they burst the flood gates with 4 goals and some solid and superb defense led by a guy I absolutely hated to see leave Portland - David Horst.

Some may gaffaw at this but this time last year - before his injury - I thought David had a superb chance to get a wee bit stuck in (some minutes) on some USMNT training like Michael Harrington did this off-season.

I still think David has great pedigree as a stand-up defender with great timing and good vision to see gaps and create gaps. So if you are a Houston supporter know that I have a special interest in seeing David do great things.

As for reading the diagram - there's a note there to read it from left to right (best to worst). The composite Index is the difference between the team Attacking PWP Index and the team Defending PWP Index. The overall total represents the ratios of success each team had in performing the six basic steps, possession, passing accuracy, penetration, creation, targeting, and scoring a goal. It's not perfect but last year it was very representative.

Before getting to the other PWP Indices...

This is the first week and like most things that are measured, to begin with, there may be wide variation in the first 10 or so samples analyzed - so like last year Chivas began with a good start.

Does that continue or do we see them tail off - likewise - DC United ended the season near bottom in almost every single PWP category - so far they are right where they left off. Will time show that Eddie Johnson was a good purchase - we'll see.

As for the leaders from last year like Real Salt Lake, Sporting KC and Portland. It's no secret now that RSL opened up with a solid three points away to LA Galaxy - is it rude to expect that Robbie Keane will miss another penalty shot this year?

How about that torrential downpour in Portland - rain is not unusual for that part of the country - does it rain a bit more on the Timbers this season or will the sun begin to shine as Fernandez, Valeri, Nagbe, Urutti and others really get there gears engaged with what many feel and think might be the most potent attacking system/scheme/player personnel package in the league?

In considering what Sporting KC has on their plate early in the season, 5 games in the course of 15 days I think - is it too much to expect that they will show early indication of dominance again?

In looking at the PWP Attacking Index here's how those teams rated:

Observations:

It's no secret that goals scored will heavily influence the outcome of a game - that's to be expected - so those teams that scored a brace or more of goals this early in the season will rate higher than some that didn't score as many goals.

Another new feature this year will be a PWP Attacking and Defending Player of the Week - where some key individual statistics are highlighted that helped influence overall team performance.

For this past week the PWP Attacking Player of the Week is Federico Higuain.

In looking at the PWP Defending Index here's how the teams fared:

Observations:

Since this is the first week the top defending team also happens to be the top attacking team.

For each specific week (not cummulative) this will be the case - for me there is nothing wrong with that - it takes a solid defense to win games as well.

At the end of the season there might be a pattern on who's the top performer, week to week, that is influencing the outcomes of team performances better than others; we'll see.

For this past week the PWP Defending Player of the Week is Michael Parkhurst.

In closing...

As the season progresses (right around week 15 or so) I'd offer that the PWP Strategic Composite Index should help paint a picture/expectation on what teams are working towards making the Playoffs and what teams are the doormats.

By week 17 last year this Index had accurately predicted 8 of the top 10 teams to make the Playoffs and by seasons end this Index had offered up 9 of the top 10 teams to make the MLS Playoffs; exceeding, in accuracy/prediction both the Squawka.com and Whoscored.com Indices - hopefully that level of predictability shows up again this year.

A couple of housekeeping things - my first and foremost source for data remains, like last year, the MLS Chalkboard developed and provided by Opta. Second - as the year continues I will attempt to peel back some more detail on 'defending' by teams in the final third.

Not sure how that will go but know that in a few weeks time I should be able to offer some additional team defending performance indicators for all MLS teams...

All the best, Chris

American Soccer Analysis Prediction Contest - Week 2!

Well, wasn't that an exciting first week of games? If you said "no", you're probably a Revolution or Red Bull fan, but that's okay, there are still many, many weeks left in the season. There is, however, only ONE week left of the ASA Prediction Contest. Ten questions separating you from a shiny new subscription to MLS LIVE 2014. Can you handle it? Caaaaaan youuuuuu diiiigggg ittt?!  Only followers of American Soccer Analysis on Twitter (@AnalysisEvolved) will be eligible for the prize. So if you're not following us already... why not? We're cool guys. Some of us have beards, even. Beards are cool. What's cooler than a beard?

Now I’ll shut up and you can get to picking…

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And here's a mini-update of the top scorers after the first legs of the CCL matchups...

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A Week One Break Down Of Shot Locations, Final Third Passes and xGF

HEY EVERYONE, WE HAD A WEEK OF SOCCER! YAY! Taking a quick look at this ghetto chart that I made, we see a little break down of the shot locations as well as some of the final third possessions. I'm still searching for the best way to display this data, but there are some interesting things here. For instance, I feel a lot less silly about starting Robbie Keane on my fantasy team after a quick look at the Galaxy's xGF, as he really should have scored at least one goal from the run of play--oh and then there is the whole business of missing the penalty kick. Besides that, we can also see that New York Red Bulls were forced into long range shots and couldn't dangerously penetrate the 18-yard box despite being one of three clubs with more than 100 touches inside the attacking third.

Team	Att1	xG1	Att2	xG2	Att3	xG3	Att4	xG4	Att5	xG5	Att6	xG6	xGF	Passes Completed	Total Passes	AP%
Sounders	0	0	0	0	2	0.142	7	0.371	0	0	0	0	0.513	57	102	0.559
Sporting	0	0	2	0.354	3	0.213	3	0.159	1	0.023	0	0	0.749	45	86	0.523
Chivas	0	0	4	0.708	2	0.142	4	0.212	0	0	0	0	1.062	88	137	0.642
Fire	0	0	0	0	1	0.071	4	0.212	0	0	0	0	0.283	58	85	0.682
Galaxy	0	0	8	1.416	4	0.284	13	0.689	0	0	0	0	2.389	116	147	0.789
RSL	0	0	4	0.708	1	0.071	3	0.159	0	0	0	0	0.938	75	104	0.721
Timbers	0	0	6	1.062	1	0.071	5	0.265	0	0	1	0.035	1.433	106	154	0.688
Union	0	0	2	0.354	2	0.142	4	0.212	0	0	0	0	0.708	68	105	0.648
Dynamo	0	0	10	1.77	2	0.142	6	0.318	0	0	0	0	2.23	70	105	0.667
Revolution	0	0	5	0.885	3	0.213	6	0.318	1	0.023	1	0.035	1.474	60	103	0.583
FC Dallas	0	0	3	0.531	4	0.284	4	0.212	0	0	0	0	1.027	81	115	0.704
Impact	0	0	7	1.239	1	0.071	6	0.318	0	0	0	0	1.628	60	107	0.561
Whitecaps	0	0	5	0.885	3	0.213	6	0.318	0	0	0	0	1.416	86	125	0.688
NYRB	0	0	1	0.177	1	0.071	5	0.265	0	0	0	0	0.513	100	139	0.719
DC United	0	0	6	1.062	0	0	3	0.159	1	0.023	0	0	1.244	80	119	0.672
Crew	0	0	4	0.708	0	0	4	0.212	1	0.023	0	0	0.943	74	104	0.712
Total	0	0	67	11.859	30	2.13	83	4.399	4	0.092	2	0.07	18.55	1224	1837	0.666

Zones 1-6 have been broken down by Matthias previously, and correspond to the map displayed on the right. xGF is simply expected goals for, and AP% is simply attacking passing percentage.

Looking at the xGF, shot location would predict approximately 18-19 goals being scored when in reality there were 26 total goals put through the back of the net. The shot locations were compiled using mlssoccer.com's Golazo and I'm not sure that the locations were entirely accurate. I plan on doing a bit of a look into how the break down works in regards to Goalzo versus the Chalkboard, and I really think that the use of the chalkboard will yield better prediction numbers, but that's purely a suspicion of mine.

Overall it'll be interesting to monitor this break down, and with that, maybe next time I'll do an xGD where teams could project how many "points" that they should have based on whether or not they should have won, drawn or lost a match. Taking that a step further it'll be interesting to see if the first 17 games has any insight to the next 17 games of the season. Here we go!

American Soccer Analysis Crowd Sourcing Results

To all of you that expected this on Friday, I'm sorry. We (collectively) hit publish on the Portland Timbers and then went directly into Opening Weekend vacay mode. Matthias left on a jetplane and, as coincidence would have it, so did I. We both unplugged and got as far away from a computer as one could in the greater Northwest area. With that we kind of forgot to set-up something that would go into the specifics of our Crowd Sourcing project that we had previously promised would be out on Friday. My apologies for that as we want to make sure you all have the access to these numbers that we gather. That's really our primary goal for everything that we do. Below is a screenshot of the data as we have it on the website. It's just a small clip of everything and later I'll upload the actual excel spreadsheet from SurveyMonkey so that others can play with the data and get a better way to look around the data if that's what they plan on doing.

*For the team previews, we just used a denominator of 404, even though there were (somehow?) a different numbers of votes for teams within the same conference.

American Soccer Analysis Prediction Contest -- Update

Hello people of the American Soccer Analysis-verse (sorry, I watched Cosmos earlier). Here are the standings after the first two days of the ASA Prediction Contest. TimberTyler leads a tightly contested pack as the only entrant to predict 6 of the first games correctly. Sixteen people are within one correct answer of him, and with two matches left to be played this week, and ten next week, it's still all to play for.

Twitter handle		Score
TimberTyler		6
@GorillaMadhouse		5
ImTonay		5
bjensen41		5
lucas_hammer		5
@TheBarcaShow		5
@DustinWard3		5
Jrthewriter		5
@root4rctid		5
mattfromseattle		5
spartwin		5
Kylescoble		5
omnimechcentral		5
Blanewalberg		5
cpnAhab		5
hbleff		5
_ramosc		5
@NafuUncafCfu		4
danny3stacks		4
@ryanmyerspdx		4
@mat_gamble		4
@atleeMT		4
@MLSAtheist		4
shawnvb		4
@pjmuzi		4
ledfloyd13		4
@ilungamwepu		4
@libero_or_death		4
@deadhamlet44		4
Mattyanselmo		4
TheGreatJeensby		4
quakesfan84		4
RabonaQuimby		3
@ricardodiazurea		3
@realryanthomas		3
@paulie4star		3
@PMacD82		3
@ccasper1986		3
ahanson1980		3
EvanKerns		3
@evandahlquist		3
mgiunta1217		3
@southstandpants		3
timofree94		3
amresendez		3
@soccamaniac		3
spidermccoy		3
Smutty2400		3
@drewjolsen		3
Markrwill		3
@dr2le		3
@JweavKC		3
emily_knutsen		3
fusionmutiny		3
ChanceEncounter		3
DKashima		3
@skrillscrapes		3
dial_hoang		2
@jakenuting		2
unitedmania		2
Z_Rich2		2
nickk330		2
buzzcoleman		2
TheAaronKlauss		1
el_jaybird		0
@mattkacik		0

Below is the breakdown of votes. On average, entrants picked 4 of the 8 games correctly. The prediction people were most sure of, the Chicago Fire defeating or tying Chivas USA, went horribly wrong as the Magee-less Fire couldn't get a result in Carson.

What will be the result of the Seattle Sounders - Sporting Kansas City game?

Seattle Sounders win		27%
Sporting Kansas City win or tie		73%

What will be the result of the DC United - Columbus Crew game?

DC United win		47%
Columbus Crew win or tie		53%

What will be the result of the Vancouver Whitecaps - New York Red Bulls game?

Vancouver Whitecaps win		27%
New York Red Bulls win or tie		73%

What will be the result of the Houston Dynamo - New England Revolution game?

Houston Dynamo win		56%
New England Revolution win or tie		44%

What will be the result of the FC Dallas - Montreal game?

FC Dallas win by 2 or more goals		18%
Montreal Impact win, tie, or lose by 1		82%

What will be the result of the Los Angeles Galaxy - Real Salt Lake game?

Los Angeles Galaxy win		62%
Real Salt Lake win or tie		38%

What will be the result of the Portland Timbers- Philadelphia Union game?

Portland Timbers win by 2 or more goals		44%
Philadelphia Union win, tie, or lose by 1		56%

What will be the result of the Chivas USA - Chicago Fire game?

Chivas USA win		15%
Chicago Fire win or tie		85%

Last Chance to Win MLS LIVE 2014 in our Prediction Contest!

First Kick is imminent! Get 'em in! For the first two weeks of the season, we are running a prediction contest to see who can best pick MLS and CCL games. If you answer the most total questions over the next two weeks, you win a subscription to MLS Live 2014. 

Only followers of American Soccer Analysis on Twitter (@AnalysisEvolved) will be eligible for the prize. We are doing this for two reasons: One, shameless self-promotion (well, we feel some shame, but we’re doing it nonetheless), and two, simplicity. We do not have to collect anybody’s name or personal information except for their Twitter handle (though if you have a Twitter account, let’s face it, you’re probably begging for the world’s attention anyway).

Now I’ll shut up and you can get to picking…

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Season Preview: Portland Timbers

Like a hot new boy band busting onto the music scene, the Portland Timbers came out of nowhere last season to  improve more than any other MLS team, jumping from an eighth-place Western Conference finish and 34 points in 2012 to first place and 57 points in 2013. Expectations are high for 2013 Coach-of-the-Year Caleb Porter, and we will soon see which member of the band the Timbers are; a legitimate talent with true staying power like RSL, the Galaxy and JT, or the goofy one that is just along for the ride, like 2007 ChivasUSA, 2010 FC Dallas, and Chris Kirkpatrick. Do the Timbers have a model that will let them hang with the big boys, or will they regress to the mean with a vengeance? ASA readers see them as Nick Carter material, with a majority of voters picking the Timbers to win the Western Conference for a second season in a row.

Players In			Players Out
Name	Pos		Name	Pos
Jorge Villafana	D	Trade from Chivas USA	David Horst	D	Traded to Houston
Norberto Paparatto	D	Transfer from Tigre	Ryan Miller	D	Option declined
Bryan Gallego	D	Homegrown player	Dylan Tucker-Gangnes	D	Waived
Taylor Peay	D	SuperDraft	Andrew Jean-Baptiste	D	Traded to Chivas USA
Steve Zakuani	M	Re-Entry Stage 1	Mikael Silvestre	D	Contract terminated
Schillo Tschuma	M/F	SuperDraft	Sal Zizzo	M	Traded to Sporting KC
George Fochive	M	SuperDraft	Brent Richards	F	Waived
Aaron Long	M	SuperDraft	Sebastian Rincon	F	Loan expired
Andrew Weber	GK	Free Transfer	Jose Valencia	F	Loaned to Club Olimpo
			Milos Kocic	GK	Retired

Roster Churn: Portland returns 82.31% of their minutes played in 2013, 6th most in MLS.

2014 Preview

Coming off their first place Western Conference finish in 2013, the Timbers’ theme for the 2014 offseason has been “more of the same”. Led by new coach Caleb Porter and MLS Newcomer-Of-The-Year Diego Valeri, the Timbers were a surprise contender in 2013. Porter's 4-5-1/4-3-3 hybrid system was a 180% turn from their philosophy under former coach John Spencer, and it brought the team immediate success. By controlling possession and maintaining the defensive pressure even in the opposition end, the Timbers brought a unique style that was both entertaining and effective. This attack based system saw them finish with the third most goals in the league last year, despite being only 9th in attempts. Not only were their attacks fruitful, they were dangerously efficient. Unlike last season’s roster overhaul, Portland made few big changes in the offseason for 2014, instead solidifying their depth and bringing in two Argentine veterans to shore up the back-line and attacking corps. Clearly, the Timbers are willing to ride Goalkeeper-of-the-Year Donovan Ricketts and playmakers Diego Valeri and Darlington Nagbe in the upcoming season.

The Attack

As in 2013, Valeri and Nagbe will be relied on to be the catalysts for the Portland offense. Led by their 12 and 10 goals respectively, the Timbers finished with the fourth best finishing rate (goals divided by attempts) in MLS last season. Being two of the most fouled players in MLS last season, and due to Valeri’s somewhat slow recovery from off-season hernia surgery, their health could determine if Portland can continue to finish with similar efficacy this season. Still, the additions of Gaston Fernandez and Steve Zakuani will alleviate some of the dependence on Portland’s playmakers. If injury isn’t an issue, the Timbers can expect to score lots of goals in 2014.

The biggest (and perhaps the only) major offseason subtraction was the loss of Jamaican international and Oregon State alum Ryan Johnson’s nine goals (third on the team last year), as he pursues a career in China. The departure of Johnson will certainly be felt, but late-season acquisition Maxi Urruti had taken over the starting striker position before an injury last year, and he looks to fit perfectly into Porter’s high-pressure defensive scheme. Also significant has been the addition of “La Gata” Fernandez. Besides having the best tribute video on the internet, Fernandez will fill some of the holes left by both Johnson and Rodney Wallace, who tore his ACL in the playoffs and isn’t expected to return until late summer. Fernandez is versatile as an attacking midfielder/forward, and seems likely to assume a utility role on the Left side of Midfield to start the season. Zakuani is an unknown quantity after excelling for the Sounders before enduring two years of injury and disappointment. Few things would be more welcome to Timbers fans than seeing a former Seattle player return to form in Portland, so any significant contribution from Zakuani will be considered a bonus. Couple those additions with first-round SuperDraft pick Schillo Tshuma, who has impressed in preseason, and the Timbers will expect to continue with their high-scoring output last year.

Still, requisite warnings about reading too much into the preseason aside, a lack of scoring (only 6 goals in 7 preseason games) in the lead-up to this MLS season is cause for some concern. For the Timbers system to work they'll need to score goals in bunches.

The Real Bash Brothers

2012 Timbers Army’s player of the year Diego Chara and captain Will Johnson, who saw his career revitalized by a move to Portland last season, will again anchor a high-energy midfield that is likely to be among the league leading duos in minutes and fouls (Chara has finished in the top three in fouls committed in all three of his MLS seasons). While not as flashy as their attacking counterparts, Chara and Johnson are just as important to the Timbers’ success. Their hard-tackling, box-to-box styles are exemplary of Porter’s possession philosophy. The Timbers will expect to win the midfield battle in nearly every game they play this season, with Chara and Johnson expected to neutralize the opposition’s playmakers as a way to free up and start Portland’s multi-faced attack.

Defensive Questions

Despite a conference best 33 goals against last season, center back was a position in flux last year with six different players all getting starts there (Futty Danso, Pa-Moudu Kah, Andrew Jean-Baptiste, Mikel Silvestre, Rauwshan Mckenzie, and David Horst). Jean-Baptiste started the most games next to Kah, but lost his starting spot to Danso in the last couple months of the season. Still, Danso’s limitations were exposed in the playoffs last season, and priority number one for the offseason was to find a consistent starter to pair with Kah. Portland ultimately ended up bringing in contender for best-named signing of the MLS offseason, Argentine Norberto Paparatto. While little besides some YouTube highlight videos (especially dubious when judging a CB) is known about Paparatto, judging by his solid if mostly unremarkable preseason the starting spot next to Kah appears his to lose. The outside backs are likely to stay the same as they were for nearly every game in 2013, with Jack Jewsbury and Michael Harrington (fresh off a USMNT summer call-up) being active both as wing-defenders and initiators of the attack.

Ricketts silenced his doubters and skeptics last year by earning his second Goalkeeper of the Year award at age 36. While not getting any younger, the Jamaican did a lot to cover up for the mistakes of Portland's defenders last year, having allowed only 83.2% of the goals a replacement MLS keeper would have, according to our goalkeeper ratings. Along with Nick Rimando, Ricketts was a head above the rest of MLS keepers, having prevented 6.27 goals  more than the average MLS goalkeeper last season. Still, the Timbers appear to be grooming young New Zealander Jake Gleeson (who they have sent on loan to Sacramento Republic FC) to fill Rickett's shoes, so there will be a smooth transition when Ricketts ultimately retires.

2014 Predictions

The 2014 MLS All-Star game will be in Portland, but the Timbers’ organization and fans expect MLS Cup to be held there, too. Under the guidance and leadership of Caleb Porter and Diego Valeri, year two is primed for success. With the Timbers figuring to compete in all three major competitions – MLS, the US Open Cup, and CONCACAF Champions League – this is a team that expects success. Outside of the Cascadia Cup, the Timbers have never brought any silverware back to the Rose City, but this could be the year things change.

Our data suggest the Timbers drastically over performed compared their expected goals for and against last season. Did they just get lucky a season ago, or has the organization finally built a model for success? They return their three best players from 2013 in Ricketts, Valeri, and Nagbe, and hope the added experience and chemistry between these players continues to flourish. A lot is expected of the Timbers this season, and only time will tell if 2013 was a sign of things to come, or in the words of N’SYNC, it will be “Bye, Bye, Bye” for their championship hopes in 2014.

Crowdsourcing Results

1st place in the Western Conference; 204 of 404 (50.4%) readers projected the Timbers to win the Western Conference, and 386 (95.5%) projected them to make the playoffs in some capacity.