FC Dallas Technical Director Fernando Clavijo stated in the 2015-2016 offseason that his goal was to “try to find that player that can score 15, 20 goals, that can compete for the Golden Boot at the end of the year.” Is Maxi Urruti the striker that can score 15 goals this year, or should Clavijo go shopping this summer to find his desired striker?
More after the jump.
Read More*xG = expected goals, xA = expected assists, xGD = expected goal differential. For more information see our xGoals by Team page.
By Jason Poon (@jasonhpoon)
2014 was about the return of a legend in Oscar Pareja to coach the Hoops, the final breakout season of a young promising attacker in Fabian Castillo and the return to playoffs after a two season absence. 2014 was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Dallas after Pareja was snatched up from Colorado days before the SuperDraft, but the emergence of several young stars (Mauro Diaz, Tesho Akindele, and Victor Ulloa) pushed Dallas into the post season and came within a goal of reaching the Western Conference Finals.
2015 will be about correcting some of their own mistakes (red cards), fitness issues (injuries), improving on the little things (fewer shots against), and making another deep run into the playoffs to challenge for the MLS Cup. I wrote some similar stuff here at BigDSoccer.com, so if this looks familiar, well there you go.
Silly Reds
The most infuriating part of watching FC Dallas in 2014 had to be their propensity to needlessly shoot themselves in the foot time and time again. Dallas was the most red carded team in MLS last season with 10 send offs. Chivas USA were second with nine and Toronto and Columbus tied for third with seven a piece. It's an entirely different story if you go in for a potentially goal saving tackle and miss or deliberately handle the ball ala Luis Suarez circa World Cup 2010, but those are professional fouls to eliminate a goal scoring threat. Dallas did none of that in 2014. Every single red card was a result of poor decision making, rash challenges and plain silliness.
FC Dallas gave up at least eight points from matches where they picked up a red card in 2014, and that only accounts for the games that the red card took place, not the games missed following the suspension. Let's give Dallas the best case scenario that they didn't pick up those reds and secured all 8 points, that would have put them with 62 points, ahead of LA Galaxy and good for second place in the Western Conference last season. Or, we'll be more reasonable and conservative give them half of the points (4), that still would have elevated Dallas to third place. Bottom line, Dallas has to stop picking up pointless red cards if they want to give themselves a chance at becoming one of the elites in MLS in 2015.
Defensive Spine
The biggest question mark for me about this Dallas team is how will the defense hold up over the course of the season. If you'll take a quick look at the player transactions (as of 2/27/15) you'll notice something about the defense, namely that lots of players have left and few new players have come in to replace them:
Incoming: Michael Barrios (Uniautónoma/Colombia), Kyle Bekker (Toronto FC), Otis Earle (UC Riverside/SuperDraft), Atiba Harris (San Jose Earthquakes), Dan Kennedy (Chivas USA), Alex Zendejas (Homegrown)
Outgoing: Jair Benitez (Águilas Pereira/Colombia), Walter Cabrera (loan return to General Diaz/Paraguay), Andres Escobar (loan return to Dynamo Kiev/Ukraine), Raul Fernández (Universitario de Deportes/Peru), George John (New York City FC), Peter Luccin (option declined), Adam Moffat (New York Cosmos), Brian Span (waived), Hendry Thomas (option declined), Jonathan Top (option declined), Nick Walker (option declined), Je-Vaughn Watson (unattached)
Out went standout defender George John, and defensive midfielder Hendry Thomas. Granted John didn't play any minutes in 2014 and Thomas was limited to just 10 games so they didn't contribute much, if at all, to the team's defensive woes but the outlook was more positive had they recovered from their injuries and stayed with the team. The lack of incoming players to replace them is concerning and just who will step up for Dallas in ball winning and preventing goal scoring opportunities?
Dallas gave up an atrocious 14.4 shots per game, which was only bested by San Jose's even more inept defense which shipped 16.1 shots per game. In the Western Conference, the team average of shots against was 13.1. Dallas will have to do better in this department if they are hoping to improve in 2015.
Health
Related to the above but at the moment, Dallas only has three true centerbacks on their roster in Best XI candidate Matt Hedges, former first round draft pick Walker Zimmerman and serviceable journeyman and fan favorite Stephen Keel (who is currently out injured). Zach Loyd (who actually did extremely well here), Moises Hernandez and Je-Vaughn Watson (not on the team) all took shifts there last year, but if one of the CBs goes down with an injury, a makeshift backline will be in the works again. With Zimmerman having only played in 17 total games (13 starts) in his two seasons in MLS, asking the young CB to go an entire year injury free might be too much to ask so soon.
MLS Player of the Month in March, Mauro Diaz also spent a lot of time on the sidelines having only played in 17 games (9 starts) as well. Dallas did eventually figure out how to win points without their magical unicorn of a playmaker, and switched to a more direct counter attacking style of attack, but Diaz offers a vision and passing ability that no one else in the league can match at the moment.
The outlook for 2015 is hard to determine at the moment. We've seen teams like DC United go from worst to best in the East in the matter of two consecutive seasons and we have seen teams like the San Jose Earthquakes go from Supporter's Shield winners in 2012 to whatever you want to call them last year. I'm cautiously optimistic that Dallas will be even better in 2015 but the history of the league has shown us that predictions are entirely a crapshoot at this point.
I've been terrible with trying to keep up with this quantitative metric, but I figured it wouldn't hurt to throw out an updated version in a vain attempt to try to play catch up with the status quo, being that the league is crawling towards the World Cup break. Really, the point of this exercise is to try and capture how often players are creating shots--not just for themselves, but for teammates. It's still pretty simplistic, and by no means the definitive answer to who the most valuable attackers are, but it's a start in moving away from basing value judgements on goal totals.
To be as clear as possible this is not a metric that measures quality or success of the shot. It's purely about opportunities to score. Either by way of putting mates* in position to score through passes that lead to shots--key passes--or to create a shot by himself--assisted or not--are the ways I count shots created.
*Editor loves word choice.
One thing I did do to include the best available and least luck-influenced player was to set a threshold of 700 minutes played. That limit was arbitrary and selected merely based upon the results of compiling the list. For that reason, and no other, you won't see individuals such as Michael Bradley, Gilberto, Brad Davis, Joao Plata, Marco Di Vaio and Kekuta Manneh on this list even though their shot creation rates merited a position in the top 50. I am very high on both Plata and Manneh, and I would love to see both surpass the 600-minute mark and really fly beyond 2,000 minutes this season so we can see what their stable versions look like.
RankNameClubPositionMinutesKey PassesAssistsShotsShCShC/90
50Blas PerezDallasFWD8996224323.20
49Nick DeLeonDCMF102612223373.25
48Vincent NogueiraPhiladelphiaMF134817230493.27
47JuninhoLAMF9629323353.27
46Benny FeilhaberKCMF126026317463.29
45Erick TorresChivasFWD11868137463.49
44Jack McInerneryMontrealFWD84411121333.52
43Baggio HusidićLAMF76113116303.55
42Dillion PowersColoradoMF8252139333.60
41Lamar NeagleSeattleMF98710228403.65
40Teal BunburyNEFWD117015330483.69
39Felipe MartinsMontrealMF99615224413.70
38Jairo ArrietaColumbusFWD8189025343.74
37Max UrrutiPortlandFWD7445026313.75
36Justin MappMontrealMF94917419403.79
35Travis IshizakiLAMF73520110313.80
34Andrew WengerPhiladelphiaFWD101211131433.82
33Diego FagundezNEMF10868237473.90
I'll admit there is quite a bit of disparity between Diego Fagundez (#33) and Nick DeLeon (#49). This group does however hold a few names seems that, to my mind, seem to fit together. Blas Perez (#50), Erick Torres (#45), Jack McInerney (#44) and Andrew Wenger (#34) all are viewed a bit differently in terms of success, but, again, this isn't about results-based productivity so much as process-based productivity. We're merely looking at how much they're involved in creating goal scoring chances, regardless of the quality of those chances or where they are located. In that context it makes more sense.
The lone surprise for me in this tier is Justin Mapp. I would have assumed he'd be much higher on this list being that he's been on the few bright spots for Montreal a long with JackMac.
RankNameClubPositionMinutesKey PassesAssistsShotsShCShC/90
32Chris WondolowskiSan JoseFWD8106030364.00
31Obafemi MartinsSeattleFWD124619631564.04
30MichelDallasMF74014218344.14
29Lee NguyenNEMF103224024484.19
28B. Wright-PhillipsNYRBFWD10518041494.20
27Edson BuddleColoradoFWD70710122334.20
26Shea SalinasSan JoseMF9163247434.22
25Sabastian FernandezVancouverFWD65410021314.27
24Will BruinHoustonFWD122120137584.28
23Graham ZusiKCFWD79424311384.31
22Alvaro SaborioReal Salt LakeFWD8695235424.35
21Leonardo FernandezPhiladelphiaFWD70113120344.37
20Giles BarnesHoustonFWD133512251654.38
19Gaston FernandezPortlandFWD75719018374.40
18Mike MageeChicagoFWD7149224354.41
17Harry ShippChicagoFWD89423417444.43
16Marco PappaSeattleMF75112124374.43
15Mauro DiazDallasMF64616214324.46
14Bernando AnorColumbusMF71811025364.51
13Cristian MaidanaPhiladelphiaMF87123220454.65
12Quincy AmarikwaChicagoFWD88015428474.81
11Dom DwyerKCFWD10507050574.89
10Deshorn BrownColoradoFWD9026043494.89
Two other names that are notable here. Edson Buddle (#27)--whom everyone thought was done two years ago when he was traded to Colorado--and Marco Pappa (#16), who was kind of a last minute signing before the start of the season, and who was a serious question mark considering his lack of playing time in the Netherlands. Now both of these individuals that were stamped as likely non-essentials are two of most involved in the creation of their clubs attack. Lee Nguyen (29) coming in higher than Obafemi Martins (31) makes me laugh, simply because Martins is second in the league in assists and most people still hold that to being the truest or, perhaps, the most obvious sign of team goal contributions. Yet Nguyen has been a catalyst for New England and is simply their most valuable player when it comes to finding the ability to create chances. This is the meat and potatoes of the list.
RankNameClubPositionMinutesKey PassesAssistsShotsShCShC/90
9Javier MoralesReal Salt LakeMF115441521675.23
8Fabian EspindolaDCFWD108630430645.30
7Diego ValeriPortlandMF111728537705.64
6Landon DonovanLAMF80224225515.72
5Thierry HenryNYRBFWD117023449765.85
4Federico HiguainColumbusFWD108039527715.92
So there that is. There shouldn't be any argument here with any of these names. Fabian Espindola (#8) is the sole reason DC even has a shot at the playoffs. He is going to get every opportunity to be 'the man' in black and red. Landon Donovan (#6) despite his uncanny snubbery from the US National Team is still clearly a major factor for the Galaxy and their attack. Sticking with the theme of decline in skills, Thierry Henry (#5) is still one of the greatest to ever play in MLS.
Oh, and I'm just biding my time for Higuian to get past this "slump" and jet into the MVP Candidate category... because that's simply where he belongs. More on that down the road.
3-1: The MVP Candidates.
RankNameClubPositionMinutesKey PassesAssistsShotsShCShC/90
3Robbie KeaneLAFWD99019245666.00
2Clint DempseySeattleMF75114243597.07
1Pedro MoralesWhitecapsMF82131438738.00
Clint Dempsey (#2) has had the kind of year that is simply bananas. It's been so crazy that it's somehow eclipsed the Pedro Morales (#1) show that is going on just a few short hours north of him. Sure, these guys take penalty kicks, but that's only a small fraction of their shots generated. If these two take this same show into the later stages of the season I can't think there would be much reason to consider anyone else for MVP.
Oh, I guess you could probably throw Robbie Keane's (#3) name in that list, too. People forget about ol' faithful, but even without his P.I.C. (read: 'Partner in Crime' for those that aren't as hip as I am) for a game or two here and there, he's still been incredible. Currently he ranks third in individual expected goals, proving that he also finds dangerous places to take his shots and doesn't hesitate to pull the trigger. Oh, and despite the angry looks and words AND finger wags, he gets his teammates those same opportunities.
And here's the Excel File for the top 50.
MLS Fantasy players, it's that time of the week to make your transfers--if you haven't already--and get that starting XI ready for the weekend. Obviously the big winners of the week are basically anyone who owned either Mauro Rosales, Mario Diaz---or to go in a different direction, less 'M' related direction---Federico Higuain. Didn't have any of those picks? Not a big deal, now is a team to reload and get cleaned up. We've got round 2 this weekend with some interesting match-ups. Here is the dream XI for last week:
And here are the current league standings as of round 1.
| # | Team | Manager | RD | %AARd | TOT | Team$ | Captain | Points |
| 1 | Khal Jogo | Bazzo | 79 | 1.927 | 79 | 119.3 | Rosales | 12 |
| 2 | This Stuff Kicks | Cris Pannullo | 75 | 1.829 | 75 | 120.7 | Keane | 4 |
| 2 | Major League Clowns | Tom Worville | 75 | 1.829 | 75 | 118.8 | Higuain | 22 |
| 4 | Bridgeburners FC | Chris Gluck | 74 | 1.805 | 74 | 120.2 | Valeri | 4 |
| 5 | Cal Poly FC | Emil Barycki | 73 | 1.780 | 73 | 115.2 | Higuain | 22 |
| 6 | En Fuego | e margolis | 70 | 1.707 | 70 | 120.3 | Nagbe | 6 |
| 7 | LingeringwithIntent | Jason Onorati | 69 | 1.683 | 69 | 119.1 | Higuain | 22 |
| 8 | The Other Higuain | Jacob Beckett | 64 | 1.561 | 64 | 119.7 | Urruti | 4 |
| 8 | A.S. Trincamp | Martin F | 64 | 1.561 | 64 | 119.3 | Higuian | 22 |
| 10 | DallasTilIDie | Benjamin Hester | 62 | 1.512 | 62 | 116.6 | Keane | 4 |
| 11 | Real Sporting Utd FC | Eric J. Walcott | 60 | 1.463 | 60 | 118 | Valeri | 4 |
| 12 | WOMBATZ | Casey Cannon | 59 | 1.439 | 59 | 114.6 | Higuain | 22 |
| 13 | NotToBeFeared | Harrison Crow | 53 | 1.293 | 53 | 119.6 | Keane | 4 |
| 14 | PasarChino! | Jason Poon | 48 | 1.171 | 48 | 120.2 | Higuain | 22 |
| 15 | Amrodg | Mick Lathrop | 44 | 1.073 | 44 | 116.2 | Martins | 4 |
| 16 | PDX Hoosiers | Brad Snook | 39 | 0.951 | 39 | 120.2 | Nagbe | 6 |
| 16 | Draft Code United | Louis Pardillo | 39 | 0.951 | 39 | 119.5 | Beiler | 0 |
| 18 | PortlandatHeart | Forrest Ellis | 34 | 0.829 | 34 | 118.7 | Valeri | 4 |
| 19 | Tootie Urruti | Drew Olsen | 33 | 0.805 | 33 | 118.6 | Magee | 0 |
| 20 | letskillrobots | Bill Vegas | 22 | 0.537 | 22 | 117.6 | Magee | 0 |
| Averages | 56.8 | 1.385 | 56.8 | 118.62 | 9.4 |
RD: Round Points
%AARd: Percentage Above Average Round Points
Team$: How much the team spent on their players
A quick thought---and my heart goes out to our own PasarChino! for this one---you gotta start Rimando, buddy! You sat the highest point total in the league. Ouch! As for our crew here at ASA, most of us (Jacob, Drew, Jason, myself and poor Bill) did okay, with the most notable stand out of the bunch being Cris Pannullo and a bit farther down Chris Gluck. We'll head to the next round and see if those two can distance themselves from the rest of the ASA community.
Again, this is for an undisclosed, not-yet-valued prize that is available to all whom play. It could be a Meatloaf interactive blu-ray, it could be a soccer ball, it could be a scarf of your choosing. Matty might spend a couple hours on Skype teaching you how to use R. Who knows what we'll come up with. The only promise is that it won't be terrible. Code to enter is 9593-1668, should you care to join in the fun/recklessness that is fantasy sports.
The three teams that are noticeably absent this round are Columbus Crew, DC United and LA Galaxy. I'm sure this will kind of cause a bit of reshuffling to occur as many, including myself, had been sporting Robbie Keane as their captain, and it will most certainly require some movement along the bench. But this is where you earn the coveted prize. No, not the Sheva, though I'm sure we can come up with an equally inspiring annual trophy name.
I'm sure you all have better advice/thoughts than what I have for MLS fantasy, so I'll point you towards a couple of sites that have some stats and feed back on last week.
- Mr. Fantasy, Ben Jata, recaps the hap's with round 1.
- Big D Soccer does a nice preview of not just Dallas FC players but also some thoughts on MLS as a whole.
- Sticking with the Texas theme, Dynamo Theory has some fantastic numbers/stuff that deserves recognition for their work. Great job by TraviTheRabbi and I would say give him a follow on twitter but I don't see any such thing connected to his account, and that makes me a sad panda. Anyways...go read the article here. Solid, solid stuff.
I leave you with the current top-50 hottest players being selected as of 10:30 last night. I've equipped you to make some good decisions. Now go forth and conquer. The catch is that only one of you will win. Anyone have any top secrets for how they plan on winning the league? I hear finding people that stop goals and in return score goals are really good to have? Any other methods or suggestions?
| Player | Team | Pos | Selected | Price | Round | Total |
| Sarkodie | HOU | DEF | 33.9% | $6.6 | 9 | 9 |
| Remick | SEA | DEF | 33.8% | $4.1 | 8 | 8 |
| Fagundez | NE | MID | 28.9% | $8.0 | 3 | 3 |
| Yedlin | SEA | DEF | 26.0% | $7.5 | 7 | 7 |
| Kennedy | CHV | GKP | 25.6% | $4.5 | 4 | 4 |
| Fondy | CHV | FWD | 24.9% | $4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rimando | RSL | GKP | 23.3% | $6.1 | 15 | 15 |
| Magee | CHI | FWD | 21.5% | $10.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Bruin | HOU | FWD | 21.2% | $8.2 | 15 | 15 |
| Zusi | KC | MID | 20.6% | $11.0 | 3 | 3 |
| Plata | RSL | FWD | 20.1% | $7.0 | 9 | 9 |
| Griffiths | COL | DEF | 19.3% | $4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moor | COL | DEF | 18.6% | $7.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Collin | KC | DEF | 18.0% | $10.0 | 3 | 3 |
| Loyd | DAL | DEF | 17.9% | $5.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jewsbury | POR | DEF | 17.7% | $6.5 | 2 | 2 |
| Nagbe | POR | MID | 17.1% | $9.5 | 3 | 3 |
| Juninho | LA | MID | 17.0% | $7.0 | 3 | 3 |
| Keane | LA | FWD | 17.0% | $10.9 | 2 | 2 |
| Cronin | SJ | MID | 17.0% | $6.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Porter | DC | MID | 16.7% | $5.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ricketts | POR | GKP | 16.7% | $6.0 | 5 | 5 |
| Harrington | POR | DEF | 16.5% | $7.5 | 3 | 3 |
| Jimenez | CLB | MID | 16.0% | $5.5 | 6 | 6 |
| Rosales | CHV | MID | 14.7% | $7.6 | 12 | 12 |
| Hall | HOU | GKP | 14.3% | $6.0 | 8 | 8 |
| Valeri | POR | MID | 14.1% | $10.5 | 2 | 2 |
| Wondolowski | SJ | FWD | 13.6% | $9.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Higuaín | CLB | FWD | 13.5% | $10.5 | 11 | 11 |
| Burling | CHV | DEF | 12.7% | $5.1 | 9 | 9 |
| McNamara | CHV | MID | 12.6% | $4.6 | 7 | 7 |
| Ashe | HOU | DEF | 12.6% | $7.1 | 11 | 11 |
| Malki | MTL | MID | 12.6% | $4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan | LA | MID | 12.5% | $11.0 | 7 | 7 |
| Moffat | DAL | MID | 12.2% | $5.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Palmer-Brown | KC | DEF | 11.6% | $4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Defoe | TOR | FWD | 11.6% | $10.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Horst | HOU | DEF | 11.5% | $5.6 | 8 | 8 |
| Melia | CHV | GKP | 11.1% | $3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parke | DC | DEF | 10.7% | $6.9 | 2 | 2 |
| Martins | SEA | FWD | 10.7% | $9.5 | 2 | 2 |
| Bradley | TOR | MID | 10.4% | $10.0 | 0 | 0 |
| McBean | LA | FWD | 10.0% | $5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| E. Miller | MTL | DEF | 9.8% | $4.5 | 2 | 2 |
| MacMath | PHI | GKP | 9.6% | $5.0 | 3 | 3 |
| Manneh | VAN | FWD | 9.6% | $6.5 | 1 | 1 |
| Urruti | POR | FWD | 9.4% | $7.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Messoudi | MTL | MID | 9.0% | $4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry | NY | FWD | 8.9% | $11.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Franklin | DC | DEF | 8.8% | $7.9 | 2 | 2 |
| Player Added | Position | Acquired from: | Player Lost | Position | To |
| Ryan Hollingshead | M | 2013 SuperDraft | Ugo Ihemelu | D | option declined |
| Adam Moffat | M | traded from Seattle | Ramon Nunez | M | option declined |
| Brian Span | M | weighted lottery | Erick | M | option declined |
| Hendry Thomas | M | traded from Colorado | Jackson | M | traded to Toronto |
| Andres Escobar | F | Loan (Dynamo Kiev) | Victor Ulloa | M | out of contract |
| David Texeira | F | Free (FC Groningen) | David Ferreira | M | option declined |
| Kenny Cooper | F | traded to Seattle |
Lots of optimism surround the Hoops after the theft appointment of Oscar "Papi" Pareja as head coach, and for good reason. The former Colorado Rapids head coach was highly regarded by the front office, was a contender for MLS 
Coach of the Year after Colorado overachieved last season with their young roster, thanks in some part to Pareja's guidance.Crowd Sourcing Placement: 8th place in Western Conference; 107 of the 406 8th-place votes (26.35%), and 321 of 404 (79.5%) of voters felt that FC Dallas would not make the playoffs in 2014.
*ExpGD is the same as our metric xGD.
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