Hello and welcome to our 2025 NWSL previews. We’ve got some new writers, some old writers, but lots of exciting analytical insights coming at you ahead of a very exciting 2025 season. You can read all of them here!

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Is the Playoff Race Swans-on or Swans-off?

By Nate Gilman

The Chicago Stars enter the 2025 NWSL season with a new name (kinda), branding (sorta), but largely look like the same team that told the rest of the league, “Ope, I’m just gonna squeeze into the playoffs somehow” in 2024 - with one major question mark.

Just looking at the standings, Lorne Donaldson’s debut season at the helm of the Chicago (Red) Stars team looks like a success. Donaldson guided the team back to playoffs after a last-place finish the year before. However, a closer look reveals a more complicated picture.

The (Red) Stars ran hot early in the season, banking enough wins (16 of the team’s 32 total points in its first nine games!) to eke over the playoff line. However, the team’s matchup with the Orlando Pride went about as expected based on the teams’ underlying numbers. (Hint: red is bad).

The (Red) Stars finished the season with a -7 goal difference but a nearly -15 expected goal difference (xGD) per American Soccer Analysis data. By xGD, Chicago was the third-worst team in NWSL in 2024, with Utah and Houston as the only teams worse.

So even though the results improved, things might not be all that positive in Bridgeview heading into 2025.

2025?

The Stars find themselves in an unenviable situation coming into 2025, with major question marks surrounding the contributions of key players.

Swanson’s Status: At the time of writing, Mal Swanson has not reported to the team in 2025. How much, if any, of a contribution she’ll make in this upcoming season remains to be seen. In the Stars’ preseason press release, Swanson was quoted as saying, “I’d like to thank the club and the fans for their understanding during this time. I appreciate the kindness and encouragement from my teammates and all the Stars staff and hope to be back with the team and playing in front of our fans as soon as I can.”

Even without the uncertainty of her status in 2025, Mal Swanson’s 2024 season would raise questions in this preview. If you’ll forgive the cliché, Swanson’s 2024 was a tale of two seasons. For one glorious month, she led the USWNT with five goals en route to an Olympic Gold Medal in Paris. For the rest of her NWSL, she was a slightly above-average winger.

In 2,313 minutes, Swanson posted 8.19 xG (0.34 xG/96) - a total further propped up by three attempted penalties (she scored one). Swanson producing like a slightly above-average winger isn’t something we’ve come to expect as she’s become one of the most electric attackers in NWSL.

In fact, 2024 was Swanson’s worst attacking season since 2018. She recorded the fewest shots per 96 minutes (2.16) across a season since 2018 and her lowest expected assists total (0.12 xA/96)...ever.

Swanson will be a foundational piece for any team she’s playing on for years to come. Any step forward the Stars take in 2025 will surely involve a return to form by Swanson, even though she’s coming off of a down season. If Swanson doesn’t end up suiting up for the Stars this season, well, there’s at least one bright spot who should be able to pick up some of the offensive slack.

With or without Swanson, Chicago will be relying on a full season of contributions from Ludmila to put the ball in the goal. In limited minutes, Ludmila proved to be a very impactful NWSL attacker. Her ability on the ball adds another dynamic to Chicago’s transition-focused attack.

Expect Jameese Joseph, Ally Schlegel, and Jenna Bike to continue getting minutes in support of Ludmila in the attack in a Swanson-less world.

Micayla Johnson, a member of the U-17 United States youth national team, signed a three-year contract in January, potentially offering another attacking option for Donaldson. However, Johnson’s contributions almost certainly shouldn’t be relied on in 2025. It’ll be worth keeping an eye on any flashes to see if Chicago has a future contributor locked up for the near-term, though.

Who’s doing the defending?

To say that Chicago’s backline is a bit of a mystery entering 2025 is probably underselling it.

Sam Staab remains on the season-ending injury list at the start of 2025 as she recovers from an Achilles’ injury she sustained in July 2024.

Will Staab see the field for the Stars in 2025? It would certainly help. Staab is one of the most effective passers in the league from her position and the Stars are in desperate need of that skill in particular.

Natalia Kuikka and Hannah Anderson, who combined to play nearly 4,000 minutes at center back with varying effectiveness in 2024, are both back. Taylor Malham and Camryn Biegalski also return, bringing their combined 2,000ish minutes at fullback. Outside of those four, there aren’t a lot of clear answers. They were the only healthy defenders listed on the team’s preseason roster, after all.

There must be more moves coming or perhaps some wingerer- or midfield- to-fullback conversions going on in preseason.

Yes, there’s midfield depth but are there impact players?

In midfield, Donaldson has more options. Julia Grosso, Leilanni Nesbeth, Cari Roccoro, and Bea Franklin all return after seeing extended minutes in 2024. Those four did pretty solid defensive work last season but not much else.

There’s more depth at the position this year, too. Maintane, who played the last few seasons with NY/NJ Gotham, and put up -0.07 g+ above average per 96 in 539 minutes in 2024, brings another option.

Manaka Hayashi, who captained Japan’s U-20 team and played collegiate soccer at Santa Clara, signed a three year deal in January and is listed as a midfielder. However, with just 150 collegiate minutes, projecting her impact is a difficult exercise.

Naeher bounces back! But don’t get too excited

Freshly retired from international play after adding yet another international medal to her trophy cabinet, Alyssa Naeher enjoyed a bounce-back season in 2024. This isn’t to say that Naeher regained her place in the tier of elite shot stoppers - moreso that she went from being among the league’s worst to merely being average.

Not to say that improvement doesn’t make a big difference. Having a goalkeeper that isn’t actively costing the team goals could be the difference between the 2024 team making the playoffs and not. However, given the uncertainty on the roster at this moment and the potential missing pieces, Naeher will need to have a 2025 for the record books if Chicago is to return to the playoffs.

Raising Bay Goals

By Trevor Wojcik

The inaugural season for Bay FC went about as well as can be expected. They met their goal of playoffs in their first year while compiling a record of 11-1-14 (34pts), locking up the seventh spot in the league standings. All this was achieved despite starting off the season with three wins and eight losses in their first eleven games. While returning much of the core of their roster they’ll hope to improve on the finish and potentially move beyond the first round of the playoffs.

A Tale of Two Halves

The team struggled out of the gate and weren’t capable of implementing the ball-dominant style that was called for by head coach, Albertin Montoya. Editor’s Note: Montoya is currently under investigation by the league for his communication with players, more information can be found here. Through the first eleven match days the team only posted positive xGD three times. From match day 12 forward they experienced a negative xGD only once. So what changed? Montoya shifted his lineup and replaced two of his underperforming starting players. The first was in match day 11 when Montoya dropped Deyna Castellanos as his attacking midfielder and opting for Tess Boade and Dorian Bailey more regularly.

Though they didn’t light it up on the attacking end, Boade and Bailey brought a level of steady competency that had been missing with Deyna on the pitch. Perhaps the most obvious improvement was out of possession. Before Deyna’s dropping in week 11, Bay conceded 1.9 xG per game. In the 15 matches afterwards, they conceded 1.1 xG per game, that’s a big drop!

The other change driving a lot of that defensive improvement was the benching of Savy King for Alyssa Malonson. Malonson was probably a more reliable progressor of the ball, but much like the Bailey Boade introduction, the huge improvement was defensively. King, predominantly a left centerback of a back three at UNC, started the season at left back in a four and struggled defensively. Malonson’s steady presence saw a Bay team that was allowing 1xGA or higher per game, with half of the games exceeding 1.5xGA, become a team where only three games exceeded 1.5 xGA.

The Winds of Change Doth Blow?

To round out the roster Bay FC added World Cup winning Bay Area native Abby Dahlkemper to central defense from San Diego Wave and Penelope Hocking from Chicago Red Stars. Both became mainstays the remainder of the season and are expected to be in the starting XI for 2025.

Going into the new season Bay FC returns nearly a league average of minutes from their opening season. The key departures come from Alexis Loera, Deyna Castellanos, Savy King, and Katelyn Rowland. We’ve touched on King and Castellanos, but Loera played in all of four matches before missing the rest of the season due to a knee injury. She was ably replaced by Kiki Pickett who was quite the capable destroyer in midfield. Rowland was the starting goalkeeper for the majority of the season but abruptly retired during preseason. While losing the starting GK before the season isn’t optimal, Rowland was slightly below average in the league and so the hope is that one of Jordan Silkowitz or Melissa Lowder can secure the starting job. We have virtually no data on Lowder, but Silkowitz has a season in the A-League of extremely mid performance. Let’s see.

The Children Are Our Future

Though there have been departures, the only significant additions to the team over the offseason have come in the signing of two midfielders out of college. While Montoya wants a more possession heavy style for the team, Bay finished the season with only 49.6% of the ball. Even more telling is that after the personnel shifts in Matchday 12 the team averaged even less possession at 47.2%. To boost their ability to control the ball the team signed two of the top rated midfielders coming out of college, Taylor Huff out of Florida State and Hannah Bebar out of Duke.

Huff profiles as an 8/10 type attacking midfielder, which would put her in direct competition with Tess Boade and Dorian Bailey. When comparing Huff’s college performance against Top 25 teams during her 797 minutes she was strong on the dribble and an adept presser (3.1 dribbles per 90 and 6.4 attacking half recoveries per 90). If Huff can keep some of her production against the speed of the NWSL game, she offers depth in midfield, and potentially more Boade winger minutes.

Hannah Bebar comes in as a top rated defensive midfielder - during her 1,106 minutes against Top 25 teams Bebar was not only a wrecker on the defensive side with 9+ duel wins at a whopping 76% win rate, she also racked up seven interceptions and 16 recoveries. To put that into context, against other very good teams, Bebar won the ball back somewhere north of 20 times a game. That is peak N’Golo Kante, McCall Zerboni, Lena Oberdorf stuff. The only thing holding her back from this challenge is school. Bebar is expected to join the team in mid-May after she completes her graduate studies.

Where Do We Go From Here?

At the end of last season this core group of players for Bay FC travelled to DC for the quarterfinals and pushed eventual runner-up Spirit to the brink. The Spirit had to tie the game late and finally edged ahead in extra-time. While all away teams lost in the quarterfinals, only Bay forced the home side to take the game to extras. Based on their performances the Elo-Rating based simulation model by T. Larner (due to the “Trevor” Paradox I can’t use his first name) says Bay are projected to finish 2025 as the 5th best team, just behind last season’s top four. If so, that’s a pretty successful second season.