2025 NWSL Previews: Racing Louisville and San Diego Wave
/Hello and welcome to our 2025 NWSL previews. We’ve got some new writers, some old writers, but lots of exciting analytical insights coming at you ahead of a very exciting 2025 season. You can read all of them here!
If you want some extended audio preview content, check out the xOwn Goals Podcast (available wherever you get your pods).
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You Can’t Win Anything With Kids: San Diego Wave 2025
2024 was a season to forget in San Diego. A beloved coach in Casey Stoney gone, replaced Landon Donovan, a personal friend of the at-the-time club president. The club floundered, the club’s first marquee signing in Alex Morgan retired, and at the end of the season the best center back in the world in Naomi Girma decided “Nah, I’m outta here.” Somewhere in-between those two things, their best young player and maybe the best prospect in the league, Jaedyn Shaw, also got traded. That’s tough. It can’t really get worse from here, can it?
Numbers? What numbers?
2025 is a fresh start. Jill Ellis is gone to mentor Gianni Infantino in matters of villainy or something, leaving Camille Ashton with sole control of recruitment. Landon Donovan is out, and in comes Jonas Eidevall, formerly of Arsenal and GoJo of Waystar-Royco fame. Eidevall’s history is checkered, his Rosengård team was quite good with three titles in five seasons and a deep-ish Champions League run. His Arsenal teams always threatened to be good, over the course of a season they had similar overall xGD to title-winning Chelsea, and his match plans for Chelsea felt good, but Arsenal ran at a roughly -0.4 xGD per game pace when they went up against the very best teams.
It is an open question whether a super tinker, analyst-turned-coach who is really into the tactical minutia will thrive in a league with as much parity as NWSL, or over the course of the season that level of detail will grate and not really click with players. I think Eidevall is good, and we’ve seen groups decidedly improve when they go from vibes to structure (look at Utah!).
How does this team create chances?
Alright, first question: How does this team score goals and create chances to score goals? Jaedyn Shaw did a tremendous amount of the heavy lifting, but also spent a lot of time playing a whole bunch of different roles across the attack. While her 0.6 NPxG+xA per 96’ will be missed, so too will that versatility. Having a plug-and-play attacker who can play centrally, wide, as a No. 9, as a No. 10, all to a high level is valuable for roster construction. Delphine Cascarino joined in the summer and put up a respectable 0.46 NPxG+xA per 96’ from wide areas. Similarly, María Sánchez had her most productive season in NWSL at a similar production number. Unfortunately for Sánchez, the goals didn’t quite match the underlying expected numbers, and neither did the g+. Knowing how g+ works, I’m going to guess she is getting killed on turnovers with a very high touch load compared to other wingers.
On the face of it, that’s a reasonably productive wing duo. San Diego signed a top-class striker to link those two and carry the goal scoring load for the Wave, right? Sort of. Perhaps the highest profile signing of the offseason was Texas forward Trinity Byers. Byers had solid college stats in 2023, putting up nearly 0.6 xG+xA with a glut of progressive dribbles and carries. She’s got some serious self creation chops, devastating pace, and has shown an extremely useful ability to score with both feet. So why only a sort of?
You may have noticed the 2023 stats. Byers suffered a season-ending knee injury September 1, 2024. If she was coming in healthy, I’d be much higher on this attack, but given there’s a whole lot of uncertainty regarding A) when she comes back, B) if she comes back in 2025, and C) what she looks like when she comes back, I suspect this will be a topic we return to in our 2026 season preview. The Wave also added Adriana Leon from Aston Villa, who has blown hot and cold in patches, but aside from a six goal six assist season for the Boston Breakers in 2017, she hasn’t exactly been a touchstone for an effective attack.
Seriously though, peep the Byers goals:
Who even needs a midfield anyways?
Out goes Emily van Egmond and Dani Colaprico. Neither player had 2024s to remember, but that is virtually 100% of Wave’s midfield minutes last season. In-bounds are Kenza Dali from Aston Villa, Favour Emmanuel from Lokomotiv Moskow, and Gia Corley from Hoffenheim. Dali is a ball progression monster and shot creation monster, but is 33y and very clearly has lost a step. She turns the ball over a TONNE and does basically zero defending.
Corley has struggled to really lock down a place for Hoffenheim, but has been extremely productive when she does play. Lots of shots, lots of shot creations, lots of progressive actions, but mostly as a driver on the ball or making runs from midfield, not exactly a sit and pass player. Her ball winning metrics are strong, but she profiles like a presser, not a screener. She’s 84th percentile for tackles, but fourth percentile for interceptions among midfielders in the top five women’s leagues per FBRef.
Favour Emmanuel is a total wild card, she could be exactly this screener-type defensive midfielder this team needs. The limited film and data from WyScout seems to think so. She averages a gargantuan six interceptions and wins 70% of her 10 defensive duels per game in Russia. Those are big numbers with an obviously large caveat. If she isn’t this, I have legitimately no idea how this team wins the ball before their penalty area.
Who is playing CB?
Much like the midfield engine room, San Diego did a clearout at center back as well. Abby Dahlkemper was traded mid-season, before Naomi Girma was sold for a world-record fee to Chelsea, Christen Westphal was moved to Houston for allocation and an international slot. That’s, again, most of your CB minutes gone. Kennedy Wesley gave a totally respectable account of herself in her rookie season and keeps her starting spot. I suspect the other spot will go to Kristen McNabb, continuing as she did to end of the 2024 season. The Wave signed two young defenders in aggressive attacking left back Quincy McMahon from UCLA (supporting the McNabb to CB theory), but also center back Trinity Armstrong from UNC.
Center back data scouting is incredibly hard and it’s even harder trying to project up a level, but Armstrong’s college data is really good. More than six interceptions, plays mostly short passes into midfield with a pretty solid turnover rate. She also wins a huge proportion of her duels. Armstrong spent most of her time as the outside of the back three that UNC have played in her time there, and she might be a little undersized (especially next to Kennedy Wesley as a pair), but crossing’s overrated, so who cares.
Prediction Time
Read the title. Team is super young, will take time to bed in, it’ll take time for a new very detailed coach to bed the team in, enjoy watching the kids get better, save yourself the heartache of expectation.
A photo finish for Louisville in 2025?
By Nate Gilman
What started out as a promising season for Racing Louisville ended the same way as every previous NWSL season so far in the club’s history - with the team sitting at home watching the playoffs after finishing in ninth place. Racing squandered a strong start to the season where the team was actually quite good - at least from an advanced numbers perspective.
But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Off the spreadsheet, Louisville’s early expected goal difference was largely driven by a 5-1 (3.9-0.6 xG) shellacking of the Utah Royals. The rest of the results were fine but not all that dominating. Ultimately, Racing ended the season with a -1.8 xGD per Fbref, the seventh-best mark in the league, but still firmly in the morass of mid-table.
Racing couldn’t overcome Chicago’s banked early season points to cross the playoff lie, and the team enters the 2025 season still looking for its playoff breakthrough.
Uncertainty in midfield
Entering the 2024 season, Racing’s midfield seemed to have the fewest doubts of any position group on the field. From the outside, Taylor Flint, Jaelin Howell, and Savannah DeMelo looked like a midfield trio that could hang with the best position groups in the league.
It didn’t turn out that way.
Howell was hobbled by injuries for much of the year and eventually was traded to Seattle in August with Bethany Balcer joining Louisville in return.
Flint was the real deal, though. I mean, just look at where she ranks in goals added above average compared to other defensive midfielders. She provided positive value in her ball winning and passing and continues to be a dominant factor on the receiving end of set pieces.
On the flip side, Savannah DeMelo’s 2024 was a rough ride. Though she still put up 0.50 xG+xA across more than 2,000 minutes, DeMelo wasn’t the creative force Louisville needed from a role further up the field.
In 2025, as Bev Yanez and her staff look for ways to finally break Louisville’s playoff drought, putting DeMelo in positions to succeed must be at the top of the list. Finding a third midfield option who can do more moving the ball from the middle to attacking third seems like a good place to start. Is a healthy Ary Borges the answer to that ball progression question? Or could we see DeMelo drop deeper down the field, paired with Flint while Yanez adds another attacker to the mix? In 2025, Louisville looks like it will have some continuity - and relative quality - in its attack.
How Attacking Times Have Changed
The contrast between 2024 and 2025 is stark. Heading into last season, it felt like Racing was looking at any and all options to try to score goals. Well, that process, plus other additions noted above, paid off and Louisville looks to have a passable attack at the very least.
The midseason move to bring the aforementioned Balcer to the Commonwealth provides Racing with a reliable option at the top of its formation. Across her two teams in 2024, Balcer put up 0.42 non-penalty xG across nearly 2,000 minutes of NWSL play. In 2025, Balcer should provide a steady presence at striker who can find good spots and score goals, provided there’s service.
And in 2025, there are attacking options on Louisville’s roster to make that happen. It starts with Emma Sears. She burst onto the scene in 2024, starting the season as the 28th overall pick in the last NWSL draft and ending it as a USWNT player with multiple caps. Her dribbling ability is elite, providing Racing with an option to consistently move the ball into dangerous areas or to unbalance an opponent as they focus on trying to stop her.
If she can unlock a little more passing in the final third or find a few more shots or, ideally, both, Sears’ upside could be huge.
Uchenna Kanu was a relative mystery entering 2024 but demonstrated an ability to be a viable option on the wing in nearly 850 minutes. All small sample caveats apply but Kanu ended up in good shooting spots, with her xG/90’ jumping from 0.24 in 2023 to 0.49 in 2024. Her defensive contributions should be a boon if Yanez looks to press from the front, as well.
Janine Sonis (née Beckie) provides another proven depth option in attack. Though her debut in lavender and violet wasn’t ideal, she’s been a consistent enough attacker in the league to believe that she can still play a valuable role this season.
Driven by Sears’ dribbling and Balcer up top plus whoever else Yanez can plug-and-play, Louisville’s attack has the potential to be fun (and effective) in 2025.
Defensive Questions
The major questions shift to Racing’s defense. Abby Erceg joined Toluca in February 2025 after starting 48 games over two seasons. Arin Wright looks likely to reprise her role in central defense but who will partner with her is an open question. Ángela Barón signed from Atlético Nacional in Colombia in the offseason while Elli Pikkujämsä and Ellie Jean return, but replacing Erceg’s minutes will be a major question mark for Racing this season.
Louisville will continue to miss Carson Pickett and everything her passing provides. Though Lauren Milliet and Courtney Peterson both played more than 2,000 minutes in 2024, neither contributed much on the ball, further limiting Racing’s ball progression. College signing Ella Hase showed some ability to progress the ball at Duke and could be a potential option to better link defense to attack in the coming season.
Katie Lund’s Next Act
ASA’s legend Katie Lund had a down shot stopping season, and not just by her own lofty standards in 2024. For that kind of a shot stopping season to come when just a few more draws turned wins would’ve meant a playoff berth is especially rough.
For Louisville to challenge for the eighth seed or above, Lund will need to return to the form that she showed in 2022 and 2023 in 2025. With Louisville’s major defensive question marks and Lund operating at her highest level could be the difference between Racing finally breaking through and joining the playoff field.