2025 NWSL Previews: Portland Thorns and North Carolina Courage
/Hello and welcome to our 2025 NWSL previews. We’ve got some new writers, some old writers, but lots of exciting analytical insights coming at you ahead of a very exciting 2025 season. You can read all of them here!
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Is the Rose City Withering?
The Portland Thorns have been a perennial powerhouse in the NWSL since the league’s inception in 2013. This team has won the NWSL Championship three times (2013, 2017, 2022) and the NWSL Shield twice (2016, 2021). 2025 is not poised to be like any of those seasons.
This shouldn’t be a shock given how last season panned out. In 2024, despite playing more regular-season games than ever before thanks to the league’s expansion (26), the Thorns went on to earn the fewest points of any recent NWSL season (34), with their lowest points per game in recent years (1.31 points/game), just edging out their worst-ever mark from 2015 (1.15 points/game).
Portland also posted their worst-ever goal differential (+2) on the way to a sixth-place finish behind a 10W-4D-12L record. That was a far cry from their +12 goal differential in 2023, or their best-ever +24 goal differential in 2022. The on-field product was sub-par, and changes were subsequently made off the field.
Former head coach Mike Norris was removed from the position just four games into the season. Assistant coach Rob Gale was named interim coach in April, after the Thorns went 0W-1D-3L in their first four games. With the head-coaching change came a change in the Thorns’ luck. The team went on to earn six consecutive wins, with Gale’s interim tag being dropped in July. That feels a little premature, look at their rolling xGD. This team got worse, not better, under Gale. The team limped into the playoffs off the back of a two win from ten stretch, before being promptly bounced by NJ/NY Gotham FC in the first round of the playoffs.
Consistent inconsistency for the Thorns
So, to recap: the Thorns were as inconsistent in results as they were in underlyings. And this lack of consistency is following them into the 2025 regular season. Portland is only returning players that accounted for 44% of their 2024 minutes, which is the lowest in the league by far.
That could be a good thing, given how 2024 went, right? Think again.
NWSL and international legends Christine Sinclair and Becky Sauerbrunn both retired after last year. To make Sauerbrunn’s retirement hurt a little more, she played the most minutes of any Thorns player in 2024. Defenders Kelli Hubly (Bay FC) and Marie Muller (SEI), both of whom logged about 2000 minutes in the Thorns’ backline, won’t be suiting up for the Thorns, either. And the key to the Thorns’ attack, Morgan Weaver (SEI) and Sophia Wilson (née Smith, pregnancy), will be unavailable to carry the Thorns' attack the way they have in years past.
Defensive struggles on the horizon?
With the departures of both Sauerbrunn and Hubly, the Thorns are undoubtedly looking at a new center back pairing in 2025. Let’s take a look at who the options are.
Isabella Obaze, who is the only player on this shortlist that was with the Thorns last season, may be at the top of the list. Her defensive net g+ fell outside the top 20 of all center backs who logged at least 1000 minutes last season, though. Her other underlying numbers aren’t all that stellar, either. Obaze’s upside is that she is already bedded into the Thorns’ system, which could be helpful given how many new faces are going to be in Portland’s backline to start the season.
There’s also Jayden Perry, who was signed out of UCLA ahead of this season. Compared to other center backs that were signed to NWSL contracts this season, Perry leads the group in dispossessions in the defensive half and forward passing (Wyscout). That profile seems quite different from Obaze’s, but it remains to be seen whether Perry’s defensive prowess will translate from NCAA to NWSL in year one.
The Thorns also signed 27yo Brazilian defender Daiane from Flamengo (Brazil). It’s hard to tell what kind of player Daiane will be, given the limited access to Brazilian league statistics, and her time in Europe predates the FBRef dataset. Even so, she’s an accomplished player that has played internationally for Brazil 12 times, as well as in the top leagues in Brazil, France, Norway, and Spain.
Rounding out this list of players tasked with filling the Sauerbrunn-Hubly-sized hole in the Portland backline is Sam Hiatt, who signed with Portland via free agency in December 2024. Her defensive net g+ was fifth-worst of all center backs who played at least 1000 minutes in 2024, and she posted sub-par values for interrupting and fouling goals added relative to the average center back last season.
Maybe Gale and co. will find a combination of center backs that works well together and can prevent the Thorns from bleeding goals, but I’m not overly convinced that’s going to happen - at least not right away. The Thorns actually had respectable defensive numbers in 2024, coming just outside the top four in terms of xGA. If it takes some time to get to the same place, this team might drop very quickly.
But that’s okay, because the Portland attack can save a questionable defense, right? Wrong - again.
Without Wilson and Weaver, where will the goals come from?
It seems as though the bulk of the goal-scoring responsibility will be placed on Portland newcomer Deyna Castellanos, who is coming off an interesting season with Bay FC. Interesting as an adjective honestly might be kind. Castellanos struggled as the fulcrum of an attack with Racheal Kundananji and Asisat Oshoala ahead of her. At face level, her FBRef scouting report looks pretty good! But there are a few caveats. Castellanos played much further forward than other midfielders, racking up a massive -0.09 g+ per 96. Her 0.2 NPxG and 0.1 xA per 90’ are respectable tallies, but 40% of her xStats for the entire season comes from one match against Portland, in which she played as a false No. 9 (pay attention).
I think there is a credible argument that she wasn’t put in the best position to succeed at Bay, since Castellanos has traditionally thrived devoid of defensive responsibility, being free to float and create and attack. But it’s not a particularly compelling argument that she’ll be able to do those things for a Portland attack lacking Wilson and Weaver.
In their preseason match against Utah on March 8, Castellanos was tapped in as the Thorns’ false 9 in the first half and No. 10 in the second half. That’s evidence to suggest that Portland will be pushing her up the field, to say the least. This clip of head coach Rob Gale’s post-game interview following this preseason tune-up is further confirmation that the Thorns will be relying on Castellanos heavily to ignite their attack. Sometimes coaches really do just check the games against them.
She ultimately has to find a way to make up for the 22 goal contributions - and general chance creation - that Wilson and Weaver combined for last season. That’s a big ask for a sophomore-NWSL player on her second team in two years.
2025 outlook and predictions
The outlook here isn’t exactly positive. A recent ELO model (courtesy of Trevor Larner), based on the end-of-season 2024 rankings and using DAVIES to measure team change, has the Thorns sitting tied for third–from the bottom–of the standings. The numbers say it’s seemingly impossible that this team wins the regular season and improbable that they even make the playoffs. I’m not sure we needed a spreadsheet to tell us that, though.
2024 in the Rear View
By Paul Harvey
The North Carolina Courage started 2024 on fire, with a total xGD difference of greater than 1.0 per game over the first five games. That marked the only stretch where they were positive, and then after that the season went sharply downhill. The team struggled heavily down the stretch, locked into a 5th place position on the table that sucked some of the excitement out of the season before exiting the playoffs with a 1-0 loss to the KC Current.
The Courage benefited from the fact that three teams in the league were totally uncompetitive, and were able to be among the best of a middle group. That’s not going to be good enough for a team that is used to competing for championships.
Do We Trust the Process?
The Courage are a singular team in NWSL, with a vision and game model that sets them apart from other teams. They led the entire league in possession by a fair margin, dominating the ball in most of their matchups. I posted this plot in the 2024 preview, they remain this exact team.
In some ways, that masks the trouble lying underneath the surface. Despite being a team that broadly dominated possession and played on the front foot, their underlying metrics were fairly pedestrian. Despite holding the ball more than any other team, they were merely average in field tilt, showing how they could not keep the ball in a dangerous area.
Especially in NWSL, high possession low tilt teams are like a gazelle with a limp on the savannah, and the other teams are the lions. The structure that it takes to hold possession can be exploited by teams willing to attack quickly, and if a team doesn’t reliably create chances it can get ugly. The Kansas City Current were in many ways the opposite of the Courage; they held possession very little, but spent essentially the same amount of time in their opponent’s third as the Courage.
Unlike the Current, the Courage were anemic when they did get the ball into the final third. Their scoring efficiency was the second worst in the league, behind only the hapless Reign. The high possession model can be successful - teams like Barcelona in La Liga F, or the Columbus Crew in MLS, show that you can dominate possession and field tilt and even be limited efficiency wise while still winning games.
When the model is successful, it usually needs a transcendent playmaker who can take the game over by the scruff of the neck and turn possession into chances. The Courage had that player in Debinha, and then again in Kerolin, but lacked that player in 2024. The hope was that Ashley Sanchez could be that player, and while she was very good she wasn’t enough to turn the team in the right direction.
Shaw Things
The big blockbuster move for the Courage this offseason was acquiring Jaedyn Shaw via trade. Shaw is young, but very talented, and might be the player who can transcend the offense and create danger from set positions. Shaw’s star making performance at the SheBelieves Cup showed she can do a little bit of everything, whether it’s creating chances, finishing them off, or even dropping deep to help break out of pressure situations.
It’s going to be a huge load on Shaw to take up the reins of the team, but the talent is clearly there. The way the Courage are set up will see Shaw get incredible amounts of the ball, most likely more than she received playing for the Wave. If she can maintain her level of production - which was consistent no matter where on the field she played - it’s not unreasonable to see her in the MVP race. When we talk about transcendent players who turn possession into chances, that’s the thing Shaw does. Just look at that passing g+. Off ball runners will feast.
If there’s any questions remaining about the team, though, it’s about who is going to score the goals. Olivia Wingate led the team in xG/96 with 0.34, which is not much. The only other player above 0.3 xGp/96 was Brianna Pinto, notably not a forward. The hope is that the rising tide gives all players more chances, but without a clear point of the attack it may continue to be difficult to create goals. The Courage added much maligned finisher Hannah Betfort, who has put up respectable xG totals and less respectable G totals at every stop so far. But given the contract extension for Manaka Matsukubo and the addition of Shinomi Koyama, I think it’s going to be some real early 2010’s Spain pass the ball into the net stuff.
How is 2025 going to go?
The direction of the team falls, essentially, on both Nahas and Shaw. The high possession system unquestionably creates a floor because it limits just how much the other team can attack. That said, holding the ball is of limited value if it’s too easy to score going the other way. You can’t run out the clock in soccer; it takes on average less than a minute to put together a goal scoring possession. The Courage have to figure out something different.
The first potential direction is that the Courage run 2024 back but Shaw is the transcendent attacker they were missing. If she can provide goals and create chances for her teammates, that makes everything else easier. She might on her own be enough to get the Courage playing among the best in NWSL.
If the improvements Shaw brings are not enough, then Nahas might need to consider a different approach. The Courage took just eight shots on the break in 2024. For the whole season! All of them were taken outside the box and summed up to just 1.16 xG total. On top of that, the Courage added just 3.68 xG from attacking set pieces. These are the reliable contributors to goal scoring that every successful team needs, and without them the Courage have a much tougher job.
The third (and unappealing) option is that nothing much changes. If Shaw and Sanchez just fit into the possession machine without transcending it, then the scoring issues will continue. If Nahas can’t find new ways to approach the game, then the efficiency issues on both sides of the ball will continue to plague the Courage. Again, the talent and structure of the team creates a high floor. The bottom is unlikely to fall out, and the Courage will probably be a playoff team no matter what; it’s just that in order to be a competitor for titles there needs to be a next level. The first draft of ASA’s prediction model likes them somewhat less, with roughly a 50/50 shot at the playoffs. The model likes that they don’t concede a lot defensively, but across every single other driver? Unimpressed. Let’s see.