2025 MLS Season Previews: Portland, Charlotte, NYCFC
/Evander Evaded
Portland Timbers fans likely left 2024 with much higher expectations for the 2025 season. With an “unacceptable” five-nil loss to Vancouver in the Western Conference Play-in game, the Timbers capped a season that oversaw drastic improvements everywhere except the league table. The attack in particular added a monstrous 19 goals to 2023’s total, flipping a 2023 goal difference of -12 to a 2024 goal difference of +9. With a tightened defense to complement the fourth-strongest attack in MLS, Timbers fans could have expected a playoff run this year.
Then, the off-season happened.
Ten days before the start of the 2025 season, the Timbers traded Evander, the linchpin behind the most exciting attack in the West. The Brazilian number-ten, who put up MVP numbers in 2024, was sent to FC Cincinnati for a $12 million fee. Hardly a sell-high moment, Evander’s heir-apparent is a young midfielder struggling for minutes in Ligue 1’s middle-tier.
Portland fans could now be excused for tuning out until 2026. But should they? Portland’s 2025 success depends on how Phil Neville can fill the $12 million gap left by his strongest attacker.
The Evander Void
Evander’s MVP performance in 2024 should not go understated: his 30 goal contributions were equalled only by 2023 MVP Luciano Acosta, and only bettered (31) by 2024 MVP Lionel Messi. Evander’s dual threat as a passer and a shooter were maximized in Phil Neville’s attacking system. As such, he registered elite goals-added metrics for both passing (96th percentile for all attacking midfielders) and shooting (91st percentile).
Evander was able to free up others in that attack during his second year as conductor: his 15 assists were 11 more than last year (the Timbers in total had 15 more assists than last year). Evander’s most important value to the explosive Timbers attack was that his elite passing and shooting drew excessive attention to himself, allowing others to shine.
It wasn’t just Evander: Timbers Front Four turn in Exceptional G+ Seasons: Base Salary vs. percentile g+
In an attack that was a perfect storm of adept passing, incisive receiving, and threatening shooting, Evander was the rising tide that lifted the levels of his attacking cohort:
Free to run into advantageous spaces,,Felipe Mora and Jonathan Rodriguez turned in elite goals-added seasons (95th & 92nd percentiles, respectively, of total goals-added) on the back of exemplary Receiving metrics (99th & 94th percentiles of goals-added receiving metrics, respectively).
With multiple attacking threats in front of them, Santiago Moreno and Claudio Bravo were afforded enough space to become elite passing seasons for their positions (98th and 94th percentiles of goals-added passing metrics, respectively).
Portland’s New Conductor: A Dribbling Soloist
David da Costa, a highly-touted Portuguese winger from Ligue 1 side Lens, is expected to be Evander’s direct replacement. If he can pass and shoot, the Timbers may be able to continue on as before. However, his most recent data suggests Phil Neville may need to head in a different direction with his new number-ten.
Portland, in fact, may need to flatten the learning curve for a rough landing. At current form, Da Costa’s tendencies suggest he neither passes nor shoots like Evander.
Before continuing, we should allow da Costa a little grace. Instead of using his current 400-minute season (oof), this chart compares da Costa’s 2023 season (where he was slightly more in-favor) to Evander’s MVP-level 2024 season. Da Costa’s minutes at Lens have dropped precipitously in 2024, likely due to a manager change. A fresh start in a lower league at match fitness could show some brilliant play from the 24-year-old midfielder. We’ve seen worse Ligue 1 players do very well here.
The data readout does suggest that David da Costa is a much more prolific dribbler of the ball than Evander. Da Costa’s dribbling tendencies could create distractions for the Timbers’ passing and receiving threats. These dribbling tendencies could also free up the dribbling proficiency of Mora, Bravo, and Juan Mosquera, who all placed above the 75th percentile in goals-added dribbling for their position groups.
Or da Costa’s prolific dribbling could get in the way. He turns the ball over at a much higher clip and has not been able to create his own shot this year in Ligue 1. Moreover, he struggles at creating shots for others, something at which Evander thrived, and turns the ball over much more often. Perhaps the level drop will enable those skills somewhat more than he showed in France.
Instead, Portland’s new $6 million transfers: da Costa and Venezuelan striker Kevin Kelsy, seem to thrive in defensive pressure and actions. However, da Costa and Kelsy also come from high-pressure defensive systems in Lens and Cincinnati. With middle-of-the-road metrics for high turnovers (187, 15th in MLS) and PPDA (13.5, 17th in MLS), Phil Neville does not require such work-rate from these signings. Or perhaps their defensive ability will open up a new, pressy Phil.
Does the Defense Need To Tighten Up?
Phil Neville stabilized Portland’s shambolic defense by adding more all-out attack to balance out a raft of new defensive signings.
To be fair, it worked: the Timbers conceded nearly 60 more shots and 4 more xG than last year, but, crucially, conceded two fewer goals. When the attacking barrage puts up 65 goals, conceding 56 goals is almost acceptable. Evander’s departure asks an important question: if the attack slows down, who on the defense is left exposed?
According to defensive goals-added metrics, that would be everyone except Kamal Miller.
Kamal Miller was the highlight signing of 2024, and earned his billing with his elite defensive goals-added performance. Miller’s interrupting actions and superior positioning showed he was the lone defensive asset across a backline of liabilities in 2024. With the fullbacks busy attacking, Miller had to rely on a sketchy group of defensive midfielders for support. Surprisingly, Diego Chara was the least reliable of the defensive midfielders in terms of defensive goals-added, considering he led the team in defensive actions.
More importantly, the chart above highlights the need to find Kamal Miller a reliable center-back partner. Miller failed to find a reliable partner in the back-line in Dario Zuparic, Zac McGraw, or Miguel Araujo. With no defensive options coming in the transfer window, the mantle lies to either Zuparic to step up his game to match his pay-grade or for summer signing Finn Surman from New Zealand to step up into the role.
Verdict: Timbers Shaky Roots to Be Exposed in 2025 Rebuilding Season
The Timbers 2025 success relies on how well Phil Neville can recover from his front office’s bungling of Evander’s sell-high moment. While he retains a large portion of his supporting cast, he lost the player that was crucial to making that front four thrive. David da Costa is an interesting prospect, but cannot create chances the way Evander does, if indeed at all.
Should the attack slow down as we expect, more pressure will be put on a defense that allowed more shots and more xG than one of their worst defensive seasons ever. If any defensive players could give Kamal Miller some help, the Timbers might be able to hold on until the transfer window. But expecting success may be too soon for this season’s Timbers.
Beware the Wilfs of March
Charlotte defied expectations in Dean Smith’s first year at the helm, finally breaking through to the playoffs for the first time in team history. They did it with a roster that on paper looked like one of the weaker groups in the league, showing the cracks and gaps that reflect the tumult of 3 managers in the first 4 years of the teams’ existence.
They found their success through a tried and tested approach throughout the globe - being exceptionally difficult to break down and having an excellent goalkeeper for when you do. Kahlina was the best goalkeeper in MLS by a fair margin, and was helped by the fact that Charlotte slowed down their opponents and made them work for their chances. Key to this effort were young center backs Andrew Privett and Adilson Malanda. Both are well below peak age for center backs, but were locked in starters for Charlotte and have promising careers ahead of them.
At the same time, making life hard for your opponents while not self destructing can get you to the middle of the group in MLS but to advance further, a team has to reliably create chances and be able to control the game. At less than 45% possession and very low field tilt, Charlotte doesn’t create the chances to effectively threaten their opponents.
Progression Problems
One of Charlotte’s struggles has been finding players who can be consistent threats on the ball at both the midfield and fullback positions. A number of different players have cycled through these positions without sticking in the lineup and making the most of their opportunities. This year, there are even more departures as the majority of minutes departing are in the central midfield or fullback positions.
The one (sort of) success has been former Premier League midfielder Ashley Westwood, although his relative lack of mobility hampers his effectiveness in contributing in both the final third and in buildup. He needs additional help if Charlotte expects to impose their will on the game in 2025. Perhaps this is why they’re linked with Paul Pogba, by the ever reputable Pulse Sports Nigeria.
Eryk Williamson was brought in from the Portland Timbers to offer a different look in the midfield. The once heralded player has had a difficult time in Portland as of late, between injuries and following out of favor, but Charlotte needs him to recover the form that led to a USMNT call up. Youngster Nikola Petkovic has yet to reach the promise that he showed in MLS Next Pro, but if he can perform at the MLS level he could solve a serious problem as well.
Agye-gang Rise Up
Striker has been another difficult position for Charlotte FC, with none of the several they’ve brought in able to take hold of the position. Two different DPs have come and gone in Enzo Copetti and Karol Swiderski, and still the player that holds pole position is a former Division III NCAA player.
Patrick Agyemang’s rise has been meteoric, going from the draft and dominating MLS Next Pro to recently appearing on the USMNT roster in their January camp games. The hype around him as a player has continued to build, and his success shows that NCAA soccer continues to be a source of vital talent for teams.
While a great story, Agyemang’s status as the only real center forward on the Charlotte roster is a real concern from a team building perspective. If he gets injured or figured out by MLS center backs, it’s unclear who would step in. Agyemang has performed well but profiles as a very raw player still, with most of his G+ coming from individual plays. He’s only 11th percentile compared to other strikers in shots from progressive passes, while being 95th %ile in shots created by individual actions.
The potential backups at this stage are Idan Toklomati or any number of converted wingers. Toklomati had a very positive run in MLS Next Pro, but with a very small sample it’s hard to draw any conclusions. Iuri Tavares might be the best candidate to convert from winger - he showed promise in finishing off attacking moves last season, especially on set pieces.
Wilf
The big news of the offseason for Charlotte has been the signing of “Street’s Won’t Forget” All Star Wilfried Zaha. Charlotte is hoping that a change of scenery will roll the years back and turn Zaha into the marauding dribbler who tormented some of the best teams in the world. He has not been able to break into the Lyon lineup after joining on loan from Galatasaray, where he was extremely productive.
The concern, though, is that a 32 year old winger with almost a full decade in the most physically demanding league in the world is not going to have the legs left to manage MLS play. Not only that, but Charlotte’s home field is a turf field - and many athletes are understandably concerned about the risk of injury on that surface. Expecting Zaha to come in and be the focal point for Charlotte may be too optimistic.
Conclusion
Charlotte has a number of strong pieces to build around heading into 2025 but an equal number of question marks. Dean Smith will have his work cut out for him finding the best team from the available parts, but his pragmatism and organization paid dividends last year. Can he lead Charlotte to take the next steps and enter the upper tier of Eastern Conference teams? It’s an open question, but the earliest draft of our play-off predictor model seems to think so, giving Charlotte the third best title odds. Feels like a stretch to me.
Who Needs DPs Anyways?
NYCFC hoped to rebound from a disastrous 2023 with a more stable, consistent 2024. The goal was not just to return to the playoffs after a tough rebuild, but establish themselves once again among the best teams in the East. That was only partially achieved, as the team went through dry spells at the very start of the season and through the summer. In the end, they took 6th in the league and managed an upset win over Cincinnati before being eliminated by rival New York Red Bulls in the Eastern Conference Championship.
For many teams, that might be enough to keep the core and leadership of the team and run it back the next season; for head coach Nick Cushing, it was not enough to save an already tenuous position. He was let go and former AZ Alkmaar manager Pascal Jansen was brought in to take the team to the next level.
What’s Left Over
Jansen comes into a team that took some big swings in 2024 both tactically and in roster construction. Cushing opened up the offense after an anemic 2023, but in doing so lost some of the defensive efficiency and structure that underpinned the prior approach. NYCFC managed 66.3 xG over the season while allowing 63.7; only two other teams had more xG total in their games.
Jansen represents a departure from the more rigid and positional approach that defined Cushing’s tenure; his preferred 4-2-3-1 is loose and constantly changing, requiring players to be comfortable in a number of different roles in a given moment. He also prefers the more aggressive press that is a hallmark of City Football Group clubs, whereas Cushing would do most of his defending in a mid block. The Jansen approach is more analytically optimal, and more in line with the setup that brought New York City a cup in 2021.
Santiago Rodriguez & Young Depth
After that MLS Cup victory, the team suffered the same kind of roster deconstruction that happens to almost every successful MLS team. Players and coaches both departed and when it came time to replace them, NYCFC skewed young. The young players struggled in 2023 but the front office doubled down, signing teenagers Julian Fernandez, Agustin Ojeda, and Jovan Mijatovic over the 2023 summer and 2024 winter window. They also added young player Malachi Jones in the draft.
Those signings had mixed results, and the high profile failures in many ways contributed to the firing of Cushing. Still, some return and will have a chance to prove that they are worth the impressive fees that were paid for them. What is even more interesting is how young attacker Santi Rodriguez inherited the keys to the kingdom after the temporary departure of talisman Maxi Moralez.
While 2023 was a learning experience for Santi as he became the focal point of the team, he blossomed in 2024 into one of the more exciting attacking players in the league. He led MLS in progressive passes completed, and his scoring ability from both the wing and attacking midfield positions were vital in the late run to the playoffs. While still inconsistent and mercurial, Santi showed the kind of promise that could indicate an MVP run in 2025.
Now, though, that is all in the air. Eagle Group - the conglomerate that bought Thiago Almada and moved him to Botafogo and Lyon - have made a concrete offer. There’s still work being done as of writing, but it feels more likely than not at this stage. Santi has not played a single minute in preseason as the saga edges towards its conclusion, and it’s clear that NYCFC must find a way to approach the season without him. That’s tough, considering just how central Santi was to everything NYCFC did.
The Midfield
For NYCFC, they may have to make up Santi in the aggregate. With the European transfer window closed, it may be difficult to pull in a player that can take that much of a burden in the offensive end. They do have Maxi Moralez back, but his health has been inconsistent. That means that they may need to develop a more team based or creative approach to generating value, especially in the attack.
This is complicated by the fact that defensive midfield linchpin James Sands has departed on loan (again) and gotten a season ending injury. That means that while they are compensating for losing Santi’s attacking ability (potentially) they are also compensating for losing Sands’s ability to shield the back line.
Pascal Jensen’s approach to the midfield, while nominally similar to both Cushing and Deila’s, is fundamentally different in key ways. While at AZ, he relied on Jordy Clasie to handle a massive amount of responsibility in possession. Clasie would play upwards of 70 passes per game as a pivot while his midfield partners focused more on working off the ball and creating in the final third. The problem as it faces NYCFC is that no midfielder on the roster has ever handled that much responsibility in a deeper lying role.
The more experienced midfielders - Keaton Parks and Andres Perea - both add value through late runs into the box, something that Clasie was reticent to do in the Alkmaar setup. Parks might be a candidate to drop deeper in the midfield, but while his game on the ball is superior his ability to defend leaves much to be desired.
Freese Frame
Thankfully, no matter what happens, NYCFC returns one of the best shot stoppers in the league. Matt Freese earned his role late into 2023, and if he had done so any sooner may have salvaged a playoff appearance from the season. He started 2024 as the number one and never looked back, earning a callup to the USMNT in January after being the top American shotstopper in the league.
For a league like MLS where the teams are so close, and playoff qualification can be a matter of points and goals at a crucial time, having an elite goalkeeper is the most important part of being a great team. Outstanding teams like 2021 LAFC have fallen out of the playoff entirely despite being well constructed in every other position. For NYCFC, having Freese makes the entire season feel more attainable.
Where Do Goals Come From?
Despite the failures of every major signing at striker since David Villa, NYCFC lucked into a goalscorer in Alonso Martinez. A converted winger (like Taty Castellanos before him) from Lommel SK, Martinez entered with little fanfare or even note. The Costa Rican felt more like a roster filler doomed to sit behind other more expensive players. A desperate Cushing tried him at striker and he excelled instantly.
Now, there is a curiosity; his goals tend to be at the very beginning or end of games. He is simply an ambush predator, taking advantages of lulls in his opponents focus before exploding onto through balls and takeaways before snapping off quick and powerful shots. For players who took over 50 shots, he was second highest in goals per 90 (0.92) behind a certain Lionel Messi.
At the same time, his xG per 90 of only 0.53 is solid, not spectacular, and the overperformance seems unsustainable. There’s a part of me that expects teams to figure out his fastball and for the chances to dry up. Backup Monsef Bakrar is a similar player, but marked by a horrendous xG underperformance that has even the most staunch numbers believers questioning the existence of finishing.
After that is no one. Backup striker Jovan Mijatovic was exiled to a Belgian relegation struggle. The third name on the team sheet is a 16 year old who is unlikely to feature much in MLS Next Pro. Jansen has experimented with a two striker formation in preseason, which has been intriguing but raises serious questions about front line depth.
Prospectus
NYCFC is still in many ways a young team. They have a single player over the age of 30, and the rest of the team is in or approaching their primes. The sentiment has been that the team is building towards the opening of the stadium in 2027, and that anything that happens between now and then is in preparation for that moment. At the same time, there are baseline expectations of success for both the CFG brand and the fans that support the team.
Since NYCFC is on the cusp of letting their most talented and important player walk, and may start the season without a single DP, the true depth and quality of the roster is going to be tested. If they can survive the early season until new signings can be brought on and gel, they may yet compete for trophies; if not, it may be the start of year another teardown to prepare for 2027.