2025 MLS Season Previews: Orlando, Houston, Seattle
/Orlando’s Offseason Offers Optimistic Outlook
Orlando fans may feel their Lions’ magic has run out after fumbling the easy road to the MLS Cup Final. Finding their form late last season, fourth-seeded Orlando City hosted three underdog stories in the Eastern bracket, eventually losing to the seventh-seeded Red Bulls in the Eastern Conference Final.
Following a bittersweet third-consecutive-best-ever-season, the offseason struck with two sudden twists:
December, the Lions sold Facundo Torres, their all-time leading goal scorer, to Palmeiras for a club record $14 million fee.
January: Orlando lost defensive midfielder Wilder Cartagena to a season-ending Achilles tear.
With two critical players gone, Orlando fans could be forgiven for being slightly downbeat, afraid the moment has slipped.
But change can be a good thing. The offseason twists forced Orlando to address things that were not working, and the front office answered the bell. Orlando’s three savvy transfer moves set the table for a 2025 season worth following.
Torres Departure Opens Up Options for Stalled Offense
Facundo Torres’ blockbuster $14 million transfer to Palmeiras shakes up a stalled attack for the better. Great expectations surrounded Orlando’s xG-defying 2023 attack that added designated player striker Luis Muriel and kept rookie sensation Duncan McGuire. Instead, the Lions meekly regressed back to the league average, using eight more xG (50 from 42) to score only two more goals (56 from 54) than last year.
Having lost their leading scorer, the Orlando front office no longer needs to build around something that was clearly stalling out in the attacking third. Despite having the second-most touches in the attacking third, the Lions could only conjure up middling numbers for shots (447, 17th in MLS) and xG (50.0, 16th) once there. Orlando actually led the league in line-breaking passes with nearly four per game, but seemed content to shuffle the ball around in the attacking third until an attack opened up.
In fact, all three designated players struggled to hold up their value in 2024:
Luis Muriel, the team’s highest-paid player, only started in 14 games. Muriel’s biggest impact came off the bench as a connective support striker, but his performance was deemed very average for a player paid at his level (67th percentile of all 2024 strikers’ goals-added).
Facundo Torres led the team in scoring, but that only masked a decidedly average performance (49th percentile of wingers for goals-added). When given the keys to the attack, he struggled, scoring only four of his 14 goals in the early-season as a number-ten. He only began scoring more once he was set free to combine and cut in from the wing.
Martin Ojeda, who led Orlando in assists, emerged late-season as the central-attacking option. But with Torres cutting inside and no other reliable wide threats, Ojeda struggled to create in a crowded center attacking space. As such, he often passed backwards or spammed crosses, destroying his goals-added metrics (12th percentile of attacking midfielders).
Ramiro Enrique became the unlikely star in a group of under-performing salaried elite. The Argentine squad player scored eight goals with his 1000 minutes, thrusting him into the upper echelon (84th percentile) of MLS strikers in 2024. He also flashed some elite dribbling (92nd percentile) and defensive work (97th percentile). The 2025 season asks difficult questions for how Enrique and his two under-performing superiors, Muriel and Duncan McGuire, will share one striker spot.
Atuesta Brings Instant Space to the Cramped Attack, New Structure in Cartagena’s Absence
Orlando introduced three important signings for the 2025 season to fill the gap left by their leading scorer. Two of those signings do not have enough public data available to project their impact, but seem to emphasize depth and speed in attack:
Marco Pasalic, a Croatian international from HNK Rijeka, brings nifty dribbling skills, and, a “surprising change in speed” with his $5 million fee.
Nicolas Rodriguez ‘s $1.5 million price tag brings technical flair, speed, and, most importantly, squad depth in the wide areas.
Orlando’s most important signing, Eduard Atuesta, comes in on a free transfer. Atuesta immediately slips into a starting role in Orlando’s double pivot following Wilder Cartagena’s season-ending Achilles injury.
Atuesta comes to central Florida as a crucial piece of the 2024 LAFC team that won the West’s top playoff seed. As such, he adds instant value is the highest-performing 2024 player in Orlando’s group of allocation money/designated player-salary group:
Tactically, Orlando’s midfield just received a ball-progression powerhouse. Atuesta thrived as a deep-lying playmaker for LAFC: his passing value ranked in the 94th percentile for all central midfielders in 2024. Atuesta was particularly prolific with through balls and key passes, an area of need when compared to the existing pairings of Ojeda and Cartagena. Atuesta can also carry the ball forward intelligently, with his progressive dribbling and successful dribbles, though he seems to struggle when challenged.
Atuesta’s ability to keep possession ticking over provides the Orlando number-ten with a release valve in the final third. He reshapes the double pivot into a six-eight pairing, but the attention his on-ball prowess commands will allow Ojeda and the Orlando front three more space to attack. Crucially, Atuesta moves the ball forward adeptly both in transition and against settled blocks. His first stint in Los Angeles was part of a buzz saw midfield that could move the ball through anyone and anything.
Importantly, Atuesta’s presence this reshapes Orlando’s double pivot of two-sixes (Cartagena and Cesar Araujo) to a six-eight combination (Araujo and Atuesta). Unfortunately, if the defensive goals-added statistics are to be believed, Orlando may have lost the wrong number-six:
Orlando’s two defensive midfielders were critical to the mid-block: Cartagena and Araujo led the team in defensive actions with over 90 each. But they also have wildly different defensive positional metrics. Goals-subtracted data suggest that Cartagena held the defensive shape together while Araujo harassed ball-carriers. For this tactical shift to work, it falls upon Cesar Araujo and the center-backs to maintain defensive shape. For a defense that conceded 12 more goals than 2023, this change may bring one new test too many. At the same time, ball progression is half the battle. If Atuesta can reliably keep them up the field, and Araujo can hunt down loose balls in the counter-press, maybe this works.
Verdict: Another Playoff Run in Sight for New-Look Orlando
Orlando’s new roster contains some exciting new pieces to freshen up some disappointing and expensive attacking assets. If McGuire or Muriel could rehash their 2023 form, Atuesta’s presence can free them and Ojeda up for a much better 2025 season. However, the implied tactical changes require a strengthening across the team’s defensive shape that raises questions. Open offense and vulnerable defense does make for a fun watch, and most importantly, Oscar Pareja seems to have a handle on mid-season turnarounds by now.
Orlando could make another playoff run this year, and, if the pieces fall in place, they may not require the easy road.
The Circled Rectangular Pitch
In 2024 the Dynamo finished 5th and made the playoffs for the second straight year after a depressing stretch from 2018 to 2022. They were remarkably consistent, never going on any real hot or cold streaks. To the extent that any professional sports team can be considered “blue collar”, that was the Dynamo. They ground out wins, salvaged draws, and generally did everything well, if not particularly flashy. Stan at Chotchkie’s would dock them for having the minimum 15 pieces of flair. They have finished higher in the table each year since 2021, coinciding with Pat Onstad’s hiring. Bringing in Ben Olsen has proven a good hire. Clearly Onstad is Onto Something Here.
The Curtain Rises
At the American Soccer Insights Summit this year, Onstad cut an informative promo on the Dynamo’s player selection process, concentrating on their use of analytics to identify players. If you’re reading this here at ASA, you’re already familiar with the overall types of metrics and analysis used to identify players who make sense for the next team signing. Onstad also noted that a player’s “fit” for the club (e.g. personality, being able to settle in a new city, etc.) is as important as the raw metrics. I don’t know how to quantify xVibes, but it does seem to work for Houston. Onstad explicitly specified Jefferson Valverde as a player who wasn’t a good fit, and that’s why he was sent out on loan. Presumably that was part of the decision to move on from Hector Herrera as well.
The Thomas Rongen Line analysis suggests that coaches are worth roughly +/-4 points per season. The clear implication is that the roster is much more important, which means the General Manager is more important than the booker. If you’re a Houston fan you should believe in Pat Onstad as you do in Joe Hendry.
But maybe trust in Pat with some caveats. Houston return 70.4% of minutes played in 2024, and 74.3% of raw player G+. For a team that was 6th lowest in MLS in xG, that’s a bit concerning. The Dynamo over performed to the tune of about 10 goals total across both sides of the ball (47G on 43.1xG, 39GA on 45.9xGA). That said, goals came from all over the roster, so it may not be as painful as thought. Houston read like a roster of midcarders, with maybe one DP who can get a run at the Intercontinental title. A balanced roster, though, can be greater than the sum of its parts.
The Midcard
Houston have moved a lot of players without losing as many minutes as four out/12 in would normally cause. A -8 roster count is even lower than the -4 net at the Revs. Right winger Adalberto Carraquilla went to Pumas for “the largest fee in club history”, officially undisclosed, but estimated by Transfermarkt to be about $3.5m. Latif Blessing is gone, leaving the only presumptive RW as Sebastian Kowalczyk. Sebastian Ferreira is gone, ending a disaster-plagued stint. He did score 5g/3a in 723 minutes, which was joint second for goals in 2024. Ezquiel Ponce, his replacement, scored 5g in 741 minutes, so Houston are in good hands. Both Aliyu Ibrahim and Kowalczyk did play up top, so there is some coverage for Ponce, but that then puts the wings into serious question.
Editor’s Note: Nico Lodeiro signed for Houston after this was finished. That guy might be good, or not, who knows really.
Houston declined the option on Hector Herrera. Even with only 1616 minutes played in the regular season, he led the team in progressive passes per 96 for all players with significant minutes. He was also key defensively, though clearly a step back from previous seasons.
The big signing this off-season was Jack McGlynn from Philadelphia. He’s a significantly better offensive midfielder than Herrera, but not nearly as good defensively. Most importantly, he’s young and has a track record of staying on the field for big minutes. Even if Herrera would almost certainly be a better player than McGlynn in 2025, he’s about to turn 35? How often is he going to play? Also in bound is soon-to-be-36 Junior Urso (1023 minutes for Charlotte) and the almost-half-his-age Erik Duenas (387 minutes for LAFC). I’m not sure Urso has useful minutes left, but Duenas might be a useful pick up. Good kids who can’t get on the field for good teams, a market inefficiency.
Houston shifted players around a lot in 2024. They primarily played a 4-2-3-1 (as in 2023), but in MANY different variations (remember kids, Formations Aren’t Real). Presumably they’ll be doing something similar this year. That may be good, in that the new signings may integrate more easily, since the playstyle, even in a standard formation, changed significantly game-on-game due to personnel differences. Or, possibly, it will show that generally tag teams don’t go on to provide one breakout star. For every Rockers that generates a Shawn Michaels, there follows a New Rockers which, uh, the less said the better.
As of this writing (02/17/2025) there are heavy rumors that Micael is on his way to Palmeiras (for an alleged new club-record fee). That leaves only Erik Sviatchenko as a returning regular CB. Ethan Bartlow and Daniel Steres added together played over 750 minutes fewer than Micael. When coupled with no apparent incoming defensive signings, and no clear defensive midfielder, Houston’s backline may feel like they’re going one-on-one with the Undertaker most games. They did trade for Michael Halliday, a fullback from Orlando, and promote Femi Awodesu from Dynamo2 who had solid Next Pro numbers. Maybe something there. Oh, yeah, and there’s the whole “who’s the goalie” thing.
Houston let go of Steve Clark, and signed Jimmy Maurer. Andrew Tarbell was the backup to Clark. Maurer only had 975 minutes in the last 3 seasons, and Tarbell 730 minutes, both as backups. While a career backup can have a breakout year (see Brad Stuver), this pair doesn’t inspire confidence.
The Main Event
Ben Olsen will likely start a front three of Kowalczyk, Ponce, and Ibrahim up top, Bassi behind, McGlynn and Artur, then Sviatchenko and Bartlow at CB. Griffin Dorsey will anchor the right, and Franco Escobar on the left. Rotating through in a sort of trios situation will be Steres, hopefully channeling Ricky Morton as needed.
The greatest mathematical mind of our era, Scott Steiner, once explained his predictions for his chances at Sacrifice. As this is American Soccer Analysis, and statistics are our raison d’etre, I will honor his genius by paraphrasing him here for my prediction:
“You know, they say that all teams are created equal, but you look at us and you look at the Western conference and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you play in the West you have a 50% chance of beating a team. But we’re roster sickos and we’re not normal! So you got a 25% chance, at best, of beating us. Then you add Austin to the mix, and your chances of winning drastic go down. See, the 15 way race for the playoffs, they got a 57% chance of winning, but we, we got a 66% and ⅔ chance of winning, because Dallas and San Jose KNOW they can’t beat us, and they’re not even going to try! So everyone, you take your 33 and 1/3% chance, minus our 25% chance and you got a 8 and 2/3% chance of making the playoffs. But then you take our 75% chance of winning, if we was to play one-on-one, and then add 66 ⅔%, we got 141 ⅔% chance of making the playoffs. See, West, the numbers don’t lie, and they spell disaster for you in 2025.”
(Honestly, somewhere between 6th and 8th - I don’t trust the defense to bail out an anemic Houston offense like last year.)
Death, Taxes and the Seattle Sounders
2024 Review
The Sounders had a very odd 2024 start in that they didn’t necessarily look bad but it took them 6 games before they had their first win and then it wasn’t for another four weeks until they had a second win. All told the team had all of 17 points out of their first 17 games and a very miserable first half of the season.
But as has been their way under Brian Schmetzer the season became a slow burn towards emerging as a top MLS Club with MLS Cup aspirations winning 12 out of their last 17 games and averaging 2.2 points across the second half of the season.
It also didn’t hurt that winger Paul Rothrock emerged as a local folklore legend breaking the Mike Fucito mold and usurped Leo Chu’s starting spot on the left wing bringing about a much needed punch of energy and goals.
The New (Young-ish) Core
2023-24 off-season saw the beginning stages of a roster transition from the 4th oldest team in MLS at 28.4 average age to the 8th oldest at 27.8 and 2025 should be another year in which they get younger with the departure of beloved striker Raul Ruidiaz. The front office has made the conscious effort to get younger, transitioning the team from their aging core of Ruidiaz, Nico Lodeiro, and Joao Paulo to re-centering the team around established but younger home town guys in Jordan Morris, Cristian Roldan and extending them out to 2027.
In addition to the veteran duo of Morris and Roldan they have designated player Pedro de La Vega, now 24, who will look to build upon an injury riddled first season. They have prioritized minutes to home grown players Obed Vargas (19) with the likes of Georgi Minoungou (22), Danny Leyva (21) and Reed Baker-Whiting (19) as key depth pieces. The backline itself still is mostly in its prime with Nouhou still only 27 and Jackson Regan just 26.
This move to a core that is still solidly in it’s prime extends out their window and with key home grown still coming through the pipeline such as Stuart Hawkins and Snyder Brunell.
Albert Rusnak… or “How I Stopped Worrying and Learned To Love Goals”
We talked about the new core but one name that I specifically and purposefully left out was that of Albert Rusnák. For those new or unacquainted with this is the time of year where we annually gather up the Sounders fans and everyone yells at each other trying to figure out what meaningful purpose Rusnák brings to this team and if he is good or bad.
However, this year is a little different. It’s hard to argue about a guy, in favor or not, how beneficial they are when they break the team record for assists. Not only that but it occurs in a season where team goals have come at a premium.
There is little doubt that Rusnák is a good thing for the Seattle Sounders and he is without a doubt an instrument delivering game changing production for Brian Schmetzer. But when compared to other “10s” in the league it’s easy to see why people question his production and value. But Rusnak was very productive in 2024, dropping a 10 goal 12 assist mega season, and doing a lot as a passer.
Not only was his passing on point but he became the focal point of a very strong Set Piece attack. His G+ set piece passing is ranked in the 99 percentile. Despite Seattle being 18th in goals scored, they were tied for 5th in goals created from dead ball situations with 13 and 5th in shots created from dead ball situations with 113. The dynamic midfielder owns a huge chunk of that success.
Filling Out The Roster
The 2025 Needs
While set pieces were a (very effective) tool in 2024, it was clear the Sounders had more tools at their belt to win games. Namely in their ability to possess the ball. The Sounders as a unit showed the ability to use the ball in open play as a defensive weapon. The Sounders conceded the fewest expected goals in the league, not solely by being excellent defensively, but by maintaining great field position and possession while also providing quick counter pressures and ball winning.
The real trick for the Rave Green was turning that positive field position in open play into any sort of consistent chance generation. Their 49 xG for was mid-table in the West, and last amongst the Cascadians. Yuck. In the end it was their undoing against the Galaxy (along with a very bad turnover). If they want to compete in 2025 with the high caliber teams in either Liga MX or the rest of MLS they need to be more goal dangerous.
Enter Jesus Ferreira & Paul Arriola
Sounders found that danger not from abroad but domestically in Dallas’ young attacking phenom Jesus Ferreira. While I think fans had hope or were under the impression the Sounders would dive back into the international market place to find another Raul Ruidiaz-type, Ferreira matches their current needs in many ways. Check this highlight reel out:
His ability to dribble while in possession and through tight spaces but also find good passes to retain possession is a huge skill and maybe the most underrated part of his game. One stat to keep an eye on? His 0.17 xA per 96 ranks him 9th among strikers and is an example of providing for his less-than-stellar attacking teammates. Pair that level connector up with Jordan Morris and look out. Did we mention he’s only 24?
Paul Arriola is also an interesting case. Obviously he brings energy and flexibility but he’s also a goal scorer that can fill in on the wing but also offers some flex fullback minutes. Add in his history of being a bought in, lunch pail guy, it’s hard not to be excited. The Sounders needed more punch on the attack and Arriola could be exactly that, producing 15xG across the last three seasons.
The real discussion beyond just acquired impact players that fit their roster and gave them specific needed depth and versatility is that they did much of this by way of selling off unused International Roster Spots and flipping Xavier Arreaga to New England. Other moves such as trades with Atlanta, LAFC, New York and San Diego have helped to fund around 1.1 mil GAM to make the trade for the impact talent they needed.
Flexibility
The addition of Ferreira and Arriola only further emphasizes the strength of this team in its depth and, also, in its positional flexibility across the board. Both Ferreira or Morris can play on the wing or in the centre forward “9” role, Ferreira has spent time behind a true striker. Roldan, Rusnàk and de LaVega all can fill various needs either in the “10” spot, while Roldan or Rusnak can drop deeper into midfield, de la Vega can play out wide on both sides.
In the fullback corps, Nouhou flexes his supreme 1-v-1 ability that works as a full back or even his ability to swap as a centre back, while Paul Arriola, Baker-Whiting, and Alex Roldan are comfortable operating in a variety of widths and depths from fullback positions. There are precious few specialists on this team. One of those is returning aging midfielder Joao Paulo. Both he and the team worked out a way to see him return in 2025 and now a healthy look 33-years old, Paulo could still play a very important depth role in this team as they push forward competing for trophies in 2025.
The Real Project 2025: Win a Trophy
The Sounders are about to play a regular season of 34 games while competing in not just one but three international tournaments (CCC, FIFA Club World Cup and Leagues Cup) an addition of at least 8 more games. Games holding a potential higher caliber of opponent.
The depth this team has assembled while retaining its core is impressive and will be vital to their early success. The ambition of this club to try and compete in the regular season, CCC and the Leagues Cup just hasn't been shown to be successfully done by many clubs. Leaving out the FIFA Club World Cup, the Sounders expect not just success from their efforts this off-season but a trophy.
It’s not just about making the playoffs. It’s not just about hosting playoff games. It’s about every chance they get to win a trophy they’ve shown they’ll do whatever it takes and it’s that success in those small moments in how they will measure the season.
At the end of the season, you can count on Death, Taxes and Brian Schmetzer's Rave Green to make the playoffs and push towards another MLS Cup appearance. And hopefully, just hopefully, a little bit of silverware along the way.