2025 MLS Season Previews: New York Red Bulls, Colorado Rapids, Minnesota United
/A Sweet 16 (Consecutive Playoff Seasons) in Harrison?
After setting an MLS record and clinching their 15th consecutive season in the playoffs, the Red Bulls shocked the Columbus Crew in two matches as a 7th seed (47 points) and made a run to their second MLS Cup appearance in 29 seasons. The team started hot with new coach Sandro Schwartz and star attacker Emil Forsberg but hit a mid-season lull when Forsberg was injured, earning 11 draws in 15 matches in one stretch. But once October hit, Schwartz brought the team back to their energy drink roots. Interrupting actions increased 25%-40% and passes dropped by 50% compared to their pre-October levels, and they rode that sufferball through Columbus, Queens, and Orlando to the final.
While the regular season results weren’t stellar compared to teams at the top of the East, ASA’s models tend to love the Red Bulls, and 2024 was no different (neither is 2025 for that matter, ASA’s first draft playoff projections have them as the second highest title odds behind LAFC). New York was 2nd in MLS in goals added difference (1st in East) and 4th in MLS in expected goal difference (3rd in East). Despite this success, only 70% of the minutes played in 2024 will be returning to Harrison, about average for the league this offseason as of writing. But turnover is something of a trend for the Red Bulls as the system keeps them stable, and after last year’s run I think they’re likely to add a 16th season to their playoff record.
Tim Parker-ing The Bus
Defense was a key part of the Red Bull’s October turnaround. The vast majority of formations Schwartz picked before this point used two CBs, but through the playoff run, he opted for three to implement his defensive strategy, including dropping Noah Eile, a passing specialist, in favor of Andres Reyes. With Reyes departed for San Diego in a big GAM trade, MLS veteran Tim Parker returned to Harrison along with Bundesliga veteran Alexander Hack, possibly a hint that three CB formations may be more common in 2025.
John Tolkin was sold to Holstein Kiel in the Bundesliga, which will be a big loss both defensively and going forward from wide positions. Again, two players are coming in to compete for minutes at the LB spot: MLS veteran Raheem Edwards and 21-year-old Marcelo Morales transferring from Universidad de Chile. Edwards’s profile is nowhere near as attacking focused as Tolkin’s, so I suspect he’s here for depth and handling schedule congestion while Morales, who has also played left midfielder, tries to develop into a key piece or big money sale.
Dylan Nealis is locked in at RB or RCB, whichever formation Schwartz opts for. Cameron Harper might be the most benefitting of a more permanent switch to a back five, flexing between wide midfield and wingback, putting up terrific dribbling numbers.
Finally, I think this is the year to be looking for a replacement for Carlos Coronel. He made saves that kept their playoff run alive, but his overall shotstopping has dropped off dramatically since he first joined the club in 2021. All keepers have bad seasons, but that is a worrying trend for a team that has placed such a strategic emphasis on keeping the ball out of the net.
Balanced, as All Midfields Should Be
This might be the deepest midfield in MLS, a result of the impressive crop of academy recruits that have been integrated into the first team since 2020. Energy drink soccer demands plenty of young bodies to run opponents into the ground, and Daniel Edelmen, Peter Stroud, and Ronald Donkor are all certainly young bodies. g+ didn’t love their contributions in 2024 in MLS, but all have a history of being productive with the Baby Bulls. Adding to this are Felipe Carballo and Emil Forsberg, who are excellent offensive weapons to combine with the homegrown dynamos. This combination of energy and passing skill should be dangerous every week, no matter who is available.
Wheel of Forwards
For a long time, the Red Bulls had a reliably scoring striker making them an elite team year after year: Bradley Wright-Phillips. Then they didn’t. And they still don’t. The closest the club has had has been Lewis Morgan, who is electric but more of a winger and second forward than target goal scorer. In response, the Harrison Braintrust is pressing the reset button; Dante Vanzeir, Elias Manoel, and Cory Burke have moved on and in come Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting as a DP and Wictor Bogacz as a U22 Initiative player.
No one should expect Bogacz to have a serious impact on winning until next year at the earliest: he is 20 and moved for a surprisingly large fee relative to his minutes-production-league nexus (previous club is in the Polish 2nd division). He’ll be understudy to Choupo-Moting, a 35-year-old Bundesliga veteran with an impressive club resume, but one filled with incomplete data. Across Mainz, Schalke, and Bayern, Choupo-Moting never played more than 2,500 minutes and scored more than 10 goals in a single Bundesliga season, and frequently fewer on both counts. He also was a regular contributor in domestic and continental cups, but this is not encouraging for an area of extreme need for the Red Bulls.
It feels like a striker committee situation by necessity, and it’s not quite the DP and high-fee acquisitions fans and neutrals might hope for, but they are undeniable improvements over both the immediate floor (Choupo-Moting) and potential ceiling (Bogacz) of the previous batch of forwards. Expect a lot of classic big-guy-little-guy strike pairings with Choupo-Moting knocking down long passes to the buzzy Morgan.
Meet the New Season, Same as the Old Season
This offseason was definitely a reload and not a rebuild. Most of last year’s MLS Cup contributors are returning, and they’ll be hungry for a second chance. While there are legitimate concerns to be had, MLS makes it impossible to not have some kinds of questions, and Red Bulls are sticking to what they know. They have a stout defense committed to their structure. They have a midfield stocked with experienced creators and homegrown drones that have been playing energy drink soccer half their lives and create turnovers at a clip. And they finally have a pair of traditional strikers to be at the end of the changes that follow those turnovers. I will be shocked if this team is not in the playoffs at all, and their brand of soccer will always have a chance in the must-win chaos factory of the MLS Playoffs.
Sequel to a Tragedy in Three Acts
After two middling seasons, the Rapids put together 50 points in 2024, earning the 7th playoff seed in the West. It was a successful year resulting from a cohesive game model built on targeted team presses, great play from the team’s attackers, and Moise Bombito’s recovery speed. Colorado climbed as high as 3rd in the West and nabbed a Concachampions berth by placing 3rd in Leagues Cup. But after a Hot Rapid Summer, the injury bug bit again and again, Moise Bombito was sold to Nice (even faster than my generous prediction!), and the defense simply collapsed down the stretch. Ah, hubris.
I’ve come to think of Colorado's 2024 season as a play in three acts:
Act I: Finding their feet
Act II: Great MLS team
Act III: Cascading failures
This is completely born out in the rolling xG for/against averages. From March to May, the Rapids were defensively on lock with xGA moving from 1 to 1.5 per match, but had a similarly limited attack. However by June 1, the Rapids attack cracked 2 xGF per match, and the defense held steady at 1.5 xGA. This pattern holds basically until the end of August. Then, everything fell apart on both sides of the ball: xGA stayed at 2 per match for the last 3 months of the season, and xGF kept fading and fading until it was below 1 per match. Can Chris Armas get his players flying at such great heights again?
Goalkeeper
Zack Steffen seems to be impressing Poch with the national team, and he’ll start nearly every match, but his ASA numbers in 2024 were dismal, costing the Rapids a goal every 3 games based on xG. But I’ve been revising my attitude on how shotstopping g+ should be deployed as a metric. There are a lot of noisy inputs to shotstopping metrics (notably goals), and a lot of unobserved information. Given that Steffen was an average keeper with Columbus for 3 full seasons by g+, I don’t expect nearly as poor numbers for Steffen in 2025. This year will be a key litmus test for him.
Defenders
Defense has been this team’s Achilles heel since 2023, so it makes sense that this is where all of the roster additions have been done so far in a quiet offseason. I’ll get heat for this because he’s a gem of a human, but Lalas Abubakar leaving is addition by subtraction. He was excellent in 2019 (0.09 g+ p96 in 2019), but has badly regressed since and was a complete liability last year (-0.1 g+ p96 in 2024). To solve this, the front office sent a million Bombito Bucks to Cincy, who had signed multiple CBs last year to deal with their own injury crisis, resulting in a 2025 cap crisis. In return, we got 25-year-old Ian Murphy and 28-year-old Nigerian international Chidozie Awaziem. Cincy apparently wanted to keep Awaziem but simply had too many good CBs, and after seeing his g+ wheel, I get why we moved for him in particular. Maxsø is reliable covering dangerous zones, but he can’t play on the ball, and after losing Bombito, the backline is where possession went to die. Awaziem fixes this issue in the starting lineup instantly, and with Murphy and the return of Mike Edwards as depth, I think our CB corps is well-rounded.
The Rapids have three starting caliber fullbacks: Rosenberry, Sam Vines, and Reggie Cannon. In 2024, Manager Chris Armas didn’t employ much defensive flexibility. The 4-man backline was locked in for the whole year, but in the final match of the year, Armas switched his starting formation to a 3-4-2-1 and the team had their best defensive performance in months by underlying numbers against the eventual MLS Cup Champs. Moving for 2 CBs that played in a back 3 in Cincy makes me think that formation will factor into 2025 somewhat regularly. My choice here would be to play the offensively-limited Cannon at RCB and put Rosenberry at wingback. Vines has plenty of experience as wingback or fullback, so I expect he’ll play nearly every match if healthy.
Midfielders
Colorado’s midfield, like their new-look-backline, is balanced and talented. The centerpiece player is 26-year-old DP Djordje Mihailovic, who has finally broken the curse of the #10 in Commerce City. He was great in 2024, earning 7 non-penalty goals on 6.96 xG and 9 assists on 8.31 xA. His 0.53 xG+xA p96 is the best season for a Rapids attacking midfielder in the ASA database.
But for me, Cole Bassett is the most important player for Armas’s system to work. He played as a marauder in a double pivot with either Wolves product Conor Ronan or homegrown Oli Larraz. His g+ wheel reveals that he’s an above average DM in every offensive g+ category and lights up the Apple TV stats for covering ground. He is integral in team presses and generating opportunities from turnovers. He’ll now be joined (per Tom Bogert) by Josh Atencio via GAM trade with Seattle. Atencio is a traditional D-mid with a ton of skill on the ball, and is just 23 years old like Bassett. This has the potential to be a devastating partnership. Oliver Larraz and Conor Ronan provide proven depth in central midfield, with Larraz covering ground and Ronan offering great passing.
Forwards
Rafael Navarro exploded in the first half of 2024, convincing ownership to trigger his purchase option from Palmeiras for $4.5 million. He definitely scores goals (11 non-penalty goals from 12.45 xG in 2024), but he’s basically the perfect system striker for Armas. He presses, he wins tackles, and he adds danger by dribbling tight spaces once he generates a turnover. His goal for 2025 should be to polish his game by simplifying his passing to keep possession more, but Rapids fans should be thrilled to have this player. Last preview, I pointed out his aura of confidence in Botafogo highlights, and how he never showed that during his tumultuous 2023 experience. He definitely showed it in 2024.
The winger position was touch-and-go in 2024, but while Kevin Cabral has deservedly been the target of finishing jokes for years, he’s a legitimate terror running behind defenders and getting the ball into the box. No other winger on the roster came close to his underlying g+ numbers. Calvin Harris, Omir Fernandez, and Kimani Sterward-Baynes will fill in some minutes but none of them made a serious case to be a 2025 starter during 2024. Ted Ku-DiPietro will probably get the first crack at filling that 2nd winger/2nd forward in 2025 after arriving for a $1.25 million cash trade with D.C. United. I must admit I haven’t watched any D.C. the past couple years, but I’m told he’s a fit for Armas: willing to close the ball down, create space with runs, and get forward fast. He’s 23 years old (a pattern with this squad as you’ll see below), and will hopefully continue to improve in this system, so I’m pretty optimistic about this move.
Outlook for 2025
For three or four months in 2024, the Rapids soared. They brought the Rocky Mountain Cup home, stockpiled enough points for playoffs, and beat four Liga MX teams in a row. The team’s biggest needs were addressed, and the FO have had a keen eye on demography:
Most Rapids key players will be in their “prime” for the next 3-6 years. Consider that alongside Paul Harvey’s recent musings about team cohesion and success. 2024 saw a bunch of new ingredients added to the pot; now it’s gotta simmer. That said, expectations are higher now. Last spring, I’d have been ok with promising play and 10th place in the West. Anything below 9th in the West means failure in 2025. But if these pieces fit as well as I think they do, this team could finish as the 4th seed in what I think is a sneakily weak West in 2025.
Mo’ Money, Mo’ Problems
Minnesota United entered 2024 in what appeared from the outside to be a bit of turmoil. Their best and most important player was yet again absent from training camp. They had an interim to the interim manager, and the new manager Eric Ramsay was younger than some of his players and in his first gig as a full manager of a senior team. He also wouldn’t join until mid-April.
Despite that uncertain start, Minnesota tore out of the gates. They earned 11 points in their first 7 games before Ramsay joined, and in total had 29 points out of the first 16 games of the season. Then, the bottom fell out. The 5 game rolling xGD turned negative, and the Loons went 2-1-8 through the end of August. A big part of this was a shifting roster - Emanuel Reynoso was shipped off to Tijuana to end his tumultuous tenure, and experienced defensive midfielder Kervin Arriaga was moved to Serbian side Partizan. The club splashed the cash on striker Kelvin Yeboah, desperate to end their goal scoring problems, and brought in Joaquin Pereyra to help fix their midfield problems.
It worked; Minnesota ended the season on a strong run of form and made the playoffs. In the first round, they upset Real Salt Lake before getting hammered by the buzzsaw that was the LA Galaxy.
Overview
Minnesota United achieved the remarkable feat of being the most average team in the 2024 season. Of all the teams in the league, their xGA and xGF were almost exactly on the league average. It’s not a bad place to be - certainly most teams in this zone will make the playoffs - but it’s also not going to be enough to compete for trophies.
Minnesota’s defense was similarly average - although allowing a great deal of possession, they kept opponents out of their third for the most part. They were a little soft once there, but nothing that would be a major concern. On the ball, though, is the most room for improvement. While being one of the most efficient teams in the league in terms of chance generation, a lack of time on the ball or field tilt meant that all that efficiency just brought them back to the middle. Without a change in how much they dominate where the game is played, they run the risk of falling further down the table in 2025.
Striker Squad
In an unexpected turn of events, Minnesota managed to turn from a team with one of the worst striker rotations in the league into a team with one of the best. Former Norwich City legend Teemu Pukki just wasn’t working out, but backup Tani Oluwaseyi proved capable of maintaining his lower league form at the MLS level. Then, summer signing Kelvin Yeboah came in and instantly found his feet, scoring 7 goals on just under 6 xG to close out the season.
Yeboah and Oluwaseyi are both starting caliber strikers, and each has their own complementary strengths and weaknesses. Yeboah is more of a downhill runner, feasting in transition and getting on the end of through balls. He’s outstanding on the dribble at improving his shots as well as creating them himself.
Oluwaseyi is a more static player who operates as a sponge for progressive passing. His ability to receive and play with other attackers makes him a vital player in possession, and his ability to get on the end of set pieces can be a reliable source of attacking production. When paired with Yeboah, he will stay more central while Yeboah makes hard runs in the channel that draw out center backs and open up the space for Oluwaseyi to operate.
If the forwards alone weren’t frightening enough, Minnesota has a number of players who are exceptional playing downhill. Bongokuhle Hlongwane had a somewhat quieter season in 2024 than 2023, mostly maintaining the same level rather than taking a big step up. At the same time the explosive young winger is a nightmare to defend in transition. His understudy Jeong Sang Bin shows some of the same attacking verve, at his best when he is able to work opposing defenders 1v1.
Flex-Seal
One of the true hallmarks of Minnesota’s approach through the years is the patient acquisition of players who can fit in multiple positions and roles in order to support the overall team goals. The perennially underrated Robin Lod is of course the best example of this, but fullback/winger/midfielder Joseph Rosales fits the position as well. It’s players like these that are the glue to make the team work. Hassani Dotson can be one of these players as well, but has voiced his displeasure with his role on the team and his desire to move to another MLS team.
The issue now is that in order to fix some of their issues, they need some more purpose built pieces that are designed to implement important tactical principles. For example, the problems of winning and maintaining possession may require a player that is specifically suited for ball winning, and their difficulty creating a foothold in their opponent’s territory require a secure and capable ball progressor.
For that reason, their biggest expenses in the winter were in the midfield and defense. Center Back Nicolas Romero joins on a U22 initiative deal from Atletico Tucuman, and midfielders Ho-Yeon Jung and Owen Gene were brought in from Korea and France. These are players that ideally will shift the tilt, helping win the ball and progress it up the field more efficiently. They each come with their own set of risks - the U22 hit rate is fairly low, and young CBs tend to struggle, while Jung is still relatively new to the pro soccer world. That said, there is plenty of support for the three new signings to fit into the side while more experienced players take the brunt of the minutes.
What to Expect From the Season:
While Minnesota’s attacking group is about as good as it gets in MLS, the season will be defined by the rest of the team. For Minnesota to break through into the upper echelon of Western Conference teams, they are going to need to dominate games against lesser teams from start to finish. The rest of the league knows what Eric Ramsay wants to do and how his game model works, and will adjust to blunt any sort of counterattacking edge the Loons might have. Can Ramsay develop another approach for when absorbing pressure and hitting on the break doesn’t work as well?
Minnesota certainly has the talent to be competitive, and it seems more likely than not that they will be in and around the playoff positions at the end of the season. With the level of investment that has been injected into the team, though, competing for the playoffs may not be enough. With Leagues Cup and US Open Cup offering multiple ways to earn silverware, this might be the season the Loons earn their first trophy since the 2014 NASL Supporter’s Trophy.