2025 MLS Season Previews: Atlanta United, Austin FC, Vancouver Whitecaps
/The Most Expensive Rebuild in League History
Let’s get it out of the way right off the top. This is a tremendous amount of money to spend, and Atlanta better be good more or less right away, or there’s going to be a whole lot of pressure on Ronny Deila, Garth Lagerway, and Chris Henderson. Luckily for you, intrepid Five Stripes fan, they shouldn’t just be good, they should be really good.
Atlanta finished 9th in the East last year with a -3 goal difference on a +3 expected goal difference, they were fine. About mid table on both sides of the ball in terms of xG and xGA, about mid table in terms of ball progression metrics like progressive passes, passes into the final third, and non-cross passes into the penalty area. About average xG per shot, and a little better than average xG per shot against (mostly due to Atlanta being one of the least press-y teams in MLS last year, peep their PPDA and final third tackles). Like I said, fine.
Luckily, they just got $30m of attacking talent to really elevate the attack, and boy is it going to elevate.
Serving your Latte in a Mug-uel
Headlining the winter of spend are a return of former MLS MVP and Atlanta Demi-God Miguel Almiron, and an MLS record transfer fee for striker Emmanuel Latte Lath from Middlesbrough. Bad news first, I am significantly more down on the Almiron deal than others. He’s 31, he’s missed a little bit of time injured the last two seasons (~20ish percent of league matches), and he has played 150 minutes since May. Given he is, if not reliant, an extreme beneficiary of his physical talents I think this move has a decidedly short shelf life. He has to be good right away and hope he doesn’t die on the back half of this deal.
Now the good news, Latte Lath should feast. He’s got 29 non penalty goals and assists in 42 Championship 90’s for Middlesbrough, who are good but not great. His defensive metrics are big. He can hold it up and link, his turnovers are very low for someone as active as he is. He creates shots for others and creates shots for himself. This seems like a home run. If we use the DAVIES model to estimate his g+ from the FBRef data, he comes in at 0.1 g+ p90. That’s lower than I expected for that level of production, but still has him next to Luis Suarez and Jordan Morris. Pretty good!
Salary Cap Chicanery
God, Chris Henderson is such a sicko. Atlanta fans and OKC fans must revel watching the master at work. Henderson chisels and moulds the salary cap minutia like Rodin or Michelangelo sculpting clay or marble. There’s a great podcast talking about the cap tomfoolery including a nugget about Saba becoming a DP to later not be a DP here. Somehow this roster has seven designated players, when you include acquisition costs and Chris Henderson has bent the rules within an inch of their life, aided by DC United deciding to give them Matheusz Klich for a box of fruity pebbles, letting them carry another DP on senior minimum salary. Here is their cap sheet for 2025, as we have it. The international slots might be wonky as Atlanta have historically been very good at getting green cards for players quickly, but this is a team that still has some wiggle room to add if need be!
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Cause for Concern
I think my number one worry for this team is that I genuinely have no idea how they’re going to play. They leaned into deep back five’s and transition ball in the playoffs, and I sort of think that might be the best way to play with this collection of talent, at least the transition ball part. Latte Lath and Almiron are both very above average pressing players, but I think the midfield lacks the legs to press effectively week in week out. It’s a lot of slow guys, but slow guys who can really pass. Klich was negative in every single g+ category except passing, Miranchuk generated twice as much g+ from passing as any other category, while Slisz and Muyumba were average-ish water carriers. Add in the pace and ability to attack depth of Almiron and Latte Lath, I see it.
New head coach Ronny Deila has been playing back fours in preseason, having one of the DM’s split the CB’s to build and pushing the fullbacks higher. I think that’s a very natural fit for DMs like Slisz and Muyumba who aren’t amazing passers, and gets a lot of value out of Amador and Lennon bombing forward. That is not at all aligned with the paragraph above this. Consider my interest piqued.
Ultimately, the team has spent to a level that the bar is the title. I don’t think they’re quite there, but I do have them as a top four team in the East. Either way I’m pretty sure they’re going to be very fun to watch.
The ATX Team
In 2017 a crack team of lawyers led by Anthony Precourt were jailed for Doing Something Wrong. Precourt and his elves were promptly bailed out of an angry Ohio by a mysterious figure called “The Don”, and disappeared into the rich part of north Austin. Today, still not allowed to have an away game in Columbus, they survive under the playoff line in the Western Conference. If you like soccer, and can stomach paying $23.99 for a can of IPA (seriously), then maybe you can support… THE ATX TEAM.
Series Recap
It’s been an uneven run over the ATX Team’s lifetime. Below the playoff line three out of four years, two different sporting directors (the first going out in spontaneous combustion worthy of a Spinal Tap drummer), and now the first head coaching change in team history. 2024 ended with lead Josh Wolff being written off, chased by a plane into a swamp. He is replaced by heartthrob Nico Estevez, newly hired from Baywatch sequel “Frisco Nights”.
Austin were a Wooden Spoon contender in 2024. Down in the Pentarchy Of Offensive Futility (see above), Austin managed to somehow finish 10th in the West, buoyed up by an overperforming defense (48g allowed on 57.4xGA) backed by criminally underrated goalkeeper Brad Stuver.
Rodolfo Borrell arrived as Sporting Director in mid-season 2023 publicly praising Josh Wolff’s tactics and saying they were part of what attracted him to Austin. 2023 was injury-plagued, and it became apparent that Claudio Reyna was bad at writing contracts. Alex Ring and Emiliano Rigoni both had options triggered by low appearance numbers (12 in Rigoni’s case), and Defensive Striker Gyasi Zardes on auto-increasing salary regardless of performance.
Rodo started cooking, bringing in players in the 2023-2024 offseason who were cheaper, and performed better than, who they replaced. Borrell even convinced River Plate to pay $10m for Sebastian Driussi and his recent mediocre form (hopefully in cash up front before history repeats itself with Argentina’s economy). While Austin is returning only 64.7% of its raw G+, Austin only scored 39 goals, so the number is less dire than looks.
The Team
Hannibal
Rodo, like Hannibal, loves it when a plan comes together. For Rodo that plan means playing a very specific brand of football - Borrell hired ex-FC Dallas coach Nico Estevez. Estevez looks to play a very fluid style of soccer. In an interview with the excellent Phil West at Verde All Day, Nico said that formations are fluid, but what matters is the “principles of the game, the idea, the philosophy and the concepts”. That’s good, because Austin signed two DPs in Myrto Uzuni and Brandon Vazquez who both play center striker, but with DP right-winger Osman Bukari, a 4-4-2 would minimize his contribution. As a bonus, ex-FC Dallas Analytics Consultant Arman Kafai spoke to ASA about his relationship with Estevez and his openness to data at Dallas. Bonus.
We’re likely to see a notional 4-3-3. Uzuni played left wing in the past, so he’ll likely start left, but drift in regularly. The preseason games in Coachella have shown the players moving fluidly into various positions - Guilherme Biro has gotten up far enough to be in midfield regularly - so it looks like Borrell’s desired playstyle gels with his chosen coach.
Faceman
No Austin striker has scored 10+ goals in a season. Driussi is the only player in club history to score more than 10 goals, though his production dropped each year (22 to 11 to 7). Anthony Precourt opened his wallet to sign 3 consecutive record signing offensive DPs - RW Osman Bukari, CF Brandon Vazquez, and CF Myrto Uzuni - to fix Austin’s goal scoring woes. Gyasi Zardes was bought out, while Diego Rubio was retained.
Templeton Peck was the frontman with a marksman’s eye. Austin’s front 3 look to emulate his suave charm. Vazquez got limited minutes in 2024 at a stacked Monterrey team and will be hoping to reclaim his 2022 form from FC Cincinnati. Bukari is a speedster - he was the 10th fastest player in the 2023-2024 Champions League group stage - and, though he only had 1g/2a in 614m in 2024, he looks poised to torch MLS fullbacks. While his wheel doesn’t look great, it must be viewed through the lens of playing in an incredibly rigid Josh Wolff side. With more freedom he should have a breakout year.
The last piece is Myrto Uzuni from Granada. Uzuni scored 14g/1a in 1413m in La Liga 2 this season. He provided 11g/1a for a relegation-bound Granada in La Liga in 2023. He announced “I’m coming here to break records.” as his first official statement. His numbers suggest he can do that. Austin pray he’s better than fellow Albanian Giacomo Vrioni. The Verde MOB (Myrto, Osman, Brandon) are the engine in the 1979 GMC Vandura. Austin will live and die by their output.
Howlin’ Mad Murdock
Murdock flew the A-Team to the villain-of-the-week. Austin’s midfield will do the same. It’s an entirely new look midfield. Alex Ring and Sebastian Driussi are gone. Dani Pereira and Owen Wolff return, joined by incoming Ilie Sanchez, Nicolas Dubersarsky, and Besard Sabovic. Sanchez was LAFC’s captain last year. Despite being a year older than Ring, he seems to have kept his condition and form better. Sabovic comes from the Allsvenskan in Sweden where he was a consistent starter. With Bukari and Uzuni’s speed, this should help feed the MOB. Dubersarsky is a 19 year old U22 DM. He played 1806 minutes for Instituto in Argentina. Again, I have no detailed stats, but his highlight reels and game film show nothing but crunching tackles and steals.
Pereira will likely start, with Wolff getting minutes subbing in for him or Sabovic. This is Dani’s make-or-break year - he’s finally freed to play his natural position. Wolff has looked very good in the preseason, and may be the starter by season’s end. For the first time Austin’s midfield looks well stocked.
B.A. Baracus
Austin’s backline is like New York's Hottest Club - Spicy. B.A. notably pitied fools. Step to the Austin defense and you may be the fool. Biro and Svatok are rather hotheaded. Opponents may be able to bait Austin into bad early cards. The A-Team crudely welded armor plating to any convenient vehicle. Austin has done the same to its backline.
Austin's backline overperformed its xGA last year despite a central defense by committee. Cascante was best in 2022 with Ruben Gabrielsen who compensated for his defensive failures. Svatok will likely be cast in that role now, with Hines-Ike rotating in. Mikkel Desler at RB and Biro at LB both get far forward. Jon Gallagher can play as a winger or fullback and will be the backup. Julio Cascante is a bad defensive CB, but good at progressing the ball and he absolutely gets his noggin on set pieces (G+ loves Cascante).
Arguably the main reason for Austin’s defensive overperformance is Brad Stuver. He’s played for a bad team, and thus gets overlooked, but he is one of the best keepers in MLS. With a good defense in front of him, Austin’s xGA is looking good.
Next Episode Cliffhanger
A stranger comes to town, a hero leaves on a journey, and Austin finishes somewhere between 7th and 4th depending on how fast the team gels. Austin and Houston will be neck and neck for the Copa Tejas, the Most Important Trophy In Sport. Rivalry-wise, Austin have more potential upside than Houston, and certainly more than Lucho And The Ten Next PRO Players up in Dallas. Josh Wolff’s arrival at the Houston Dynamo adds much drama to the Highway 290 Hoedown series. The Austin faithful want payback for last season’s dramatic cliffhanger.
This for the people that rebuy, resale, replay
By Caleb Wilkins (Bluesky/Twitter)
2024 Stagnation:
2024 was a season of stagnation for the Vancouver Whitecaps. It was the first time since Axel Schuster was hired as Sporting Director that the ‘Caps did not improve on the previous season's expected goal difference, falling from an impressive +0.4 xGD p96 in 2023 to pedestrian +0.06 in 2024. There were some minor mitigating factors like a negative penalty differential (3 for, 6 against) and a large number of games with significant score effects but the overall picture is of a team that took a step back. An uninspired 2024 puts a huge amount of pressure on the 2025 season for Vancouver. With most of their core players in their late 20s, if this group is going to win anything more prestigious than the Voyageaur’s Cup then it’s going to have to be now.
When looking at Vancouver’s struggles in 2024, it’s clear that offence was the bigger problem. They were 19th in xG for and 11th in xG against. Essentially, there was a Julian Gressel sized hole in the team with final 3rd and penalty box entries absolutely tanking compared to 2023. The Whitecaps were still doing a lot of crossing but their ability to create from central areas was extremely diminished, not a trade-off that you want.
Their other big problem was a lack of depth in the forward areas. Ryan Gauld and Brian White were essentially un-rotatable because the drop off was so significant. Capable back-up striker Simon Becher was sold and replaced with Damir Kreilach. Kreilach was useful late in games when the opponent was parking the bus but he is brutally slow at this stage in his career and it quickly became clear he could not be relied on for a full 90 minutes (or 96, for that matter). MLSNP stand-out Levonte Johnson was a super-athlete but his lack of technical ability meant you didn’t really want him playing the bulk of a match either.
Well That Happened
The Whitecaps did add Stuart Armstrong late in the 2024 season. Armstrong is a monster ball-progressor and shot creator who can play several attacking midfielder positions. He took a while to get up to speed but in the playoffs He certainly looked like he addressed a lot of their problems. But Armstrong was allowed to leave to Sheffield Wednesday, apparently to chase a potential return to the Premier League. Armstrong is about to turn 33, so not having him locked in as a DP for 2026 is maybe not the worst thing in the world but there is no doubt that his departure makes the Whitecaps significantly weaker in the short term.
New Coach!
The Whitecaps parted ways with Vanni Sartini and replaced him with Danish manager Jesper Sørensen. Sartini was mercurial but he oversaw by far the most successful and watchable period in the Whitecaps’ MLS history. This was not a very high bar to clear, to be fair, but still the pressure will be on Sørensen to deliver results right away to justify the club’s decision. The noises Sørensen is making suggest a move to a more controlled system that is less reliant on transitions. With the Whitecaps’ slightly older roster that might work out. In Vancouver’s 3 streamed pre-season games we have seen a more possession based approach with the centre-backs pushing very high in possession.
Other Squad Changes:
Alessandro Schöpf (2120 minutes) is out. He got paid quite a bit of money (992k) to be a decidedly average MLS midfielder. His minutes will likely be replaced by committee. Joining that committee is J.C Ngando, who returns to the fold after a season long loan with Las Vegas Lights in USL. Ngando, who was named to the USL team of the season, should provide similar levels of performance to Schöpf for about 1/10th of the price.
Ryan Raposo (1766 minutes), a long time depth player is also departing. His career had life breathed into it by Vanni Sartini’s love of wing-backs. But if the team is moving away from wing-backs it’s not clear he could be as successful as a pure full-back or a pure-winger. MLS superdraft pick Tate Johnson seems like his replacement. The 19-year-old left-back popped as a ball progressor in NCAA. He has turned in some encouraging pre-season performances but will likely start out as a back-up to Sam Adekugbe.
Probably the most notable departure, outside of Armstrong, if Fafa Picault. He had the best outputs of his career by G+, xG, and actual G in 2024. But a player, especially a winger, having the best year of their career when they’re 32 is extremely weird and I'm not sure how likely it is that Picault can repeat that. Still, those goals are going to have to be replaced by someone.
So far, there are two candidates to be that someone, both of whom are interesting but not entirely convincing. Jayden Nelson returns to MLS after some wondering in Norway and Germany. Nelson has some undeniable skill but has not been able to translate that into consistent shot generation to this point in his career. If Sartini were still around he would seem to be a prime candidate to reinvent himself as a wing-back. But it doesn’t seem like the Whitecaps will have those anymore. Nelson has played about 75 minutes of pre-season football and, to be fair, he racked up a number of box shots in that time. But it’s 75 minutes in friendly matches so who knows.
The other option is one time US international Emmanuel Sabbi. Sabbi joins Vancouver after a season and half with Le Havre in Ligue 1. Sabbi is a forward player, mainly a winger, who got his start in Denmark. He absolutely exploded in production in his age 24 season which earned him the move to France. Le Havre have been battling relegation the whole time Sabbi has been there so his lack of production there is perhaps unsurprising. But he also only has that one standout season to hang his hat on. We’re about to find out if it was a blip.
Lastly, it has been reliably reported that the Whitecaps are adding Daniel Rios on loan from Chivas. Rios has a solid resume of scoring at a high-end back-up to low-end starter level in MLS and should provide some much needed cover for Brian White.
Conclusions:
The big question facing the Whitecaps this offseason was if they could make additions that would push them into true contender status. At this point I think it’s pretty clear that bar has not been cleared. The Whitecaps’ core players provide a high enough floor that I'm reasonably confident they will be a playoff team. But at this point I have a hard time being more optimistic than that. However, the ‘Caps do still have the ability to add further to the roster, check out their cap sheet. Manuel Veth, who is generally on the money with Whitecaps news, reports the Whitecaps are looking for a direct replacement for Armstrong with their open DP slot, and have narrowed their search down to a few targets. They could then further bolster their attack with a U-22 initiative signing. If the Whitecaps can hit on those two signings I would feel quite confident in their ability to fight for one of the top spots in the Western conference. But until those spots are filled with real existing players, and not just the idea of players, I can’t confidently predict anything higher than the 6th-9th range in the Western Conference.