Season Previews: Sporting KC, Vancouver, Dallas
/Punny Titles Are For Clubs That Don’t Hire Gavin Wilkinson
By Jared Young
A 2024 Sporting Kansas City preview can only begin with the acknowledgement of an ending. Two club legends, Graham Zusi and Roger Espinoza, won’t be lacing up their blue boots this season. One of those two has been in a Sporting KC jersey every year since 2008. The duo combined for nearly 700 games played and oversaw the collection of four trophies. They will be sorely missed by the fans and in the clubhouse. The fact that Zusi spent his entire 15-year career with one club is just a marvelous feat. What a career.
Following that moment of silence, the remaining squad has some modest reason for optimism. They ended last season on a high note when they ruined St. Louis City FCs inaugural season with an impressive 6-2 drubbing in the twin fixture. The Cinderella run ended in the Western Semifinal with a 1-0 loss to Houston, but a budding rivalry with St. Louis no doubt fuels good vibes.
The other “good news” is that they started last season with a 10 game winless streak, and therefore finished their final 24 games as a relatively stronger club. If you check their five game rolling xGD for the season, it’s a brutal patch in that spell and then an at worst neutral team. The problem is, that same dark swoon happened the season before that, and you have to wonder if this team just has hot and cold spells, and the end result is just a mediocre club.
Beyond that there’s not much else to get excited about. The team isn’t particularly good offensively (48 goals scored and just 41.1 xG) or defensively (51 goals allowed or 45.1 xGA). The team added some players that feel like obligatory changes, but otherwise a lineup that finished 8th in the West with a -4.1 xGD will take the pitch yet again.
The big three offensive trio of Alan Pulido, Johnny Russell, and Daniel Salloi, who put up 29 goals against an xG of 20.7, might see some regression unless they up that baseline production. The fact that Pulido and Russell are into their 30s only adds to that risk. Will the young forward William Agada take a step to help fill the gap? His 0.62 goals per 90 minutes across two seasons is impressive, but he’ll need minutes to materialize from somewhere. Again, that’s if we’re looking for reasons not to expect more mediocrity.
Who wouldn’t give this guy a new contract?
The defense underperformed their xGA of 45.1 with those 51 goals allowed. If you believe that was luck, perhaps there is reason for optimism there. Tim Melia actually outperformed his goalkeeping xG by 3.5 but at 36 years of age that edge could easily start to slip.
The new additions don’t exactly scream upgrade. Alenis Vargas was upgraded from the MLS Next squad. 28-year-old Memo Rodriquez is a known MLS commodity added to the midfield. Perhaps the most intriguing signing is left back Zorhan Bassong, who has international and MLS experience while being just 24. But these changes are modest upgrades or depth pieces, not game changers.
It feels like a broken record trying to assess the recent incarnations of Sporting Kansas City and project forward. How big enough of a sample size do you need to believe this is a top tier West team? Are the last 24 games plus playoffs enough to go on? If we broaden the time horizon this team hasn’t had a positive goal difference since 2021, and haven’t made many changes.
The days of trophy collecting in the last decade seems very far away for Sporting Kansas City. And with Zusi and Espinoza no longer present, it somehow feels like it might be a little while longer before any new trophies make it to the case.
If this team’s body is found floating in the bay…
Canada's west coast squad had a standout year in 2023, clinching their second consecutive Canadian Championship and earning a spot in the 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup. They finished 6th place in the Western Conference and secured their first home playoff game since 2017, all while cultivating one of the league's most entertaining attacking duos in Ryan Gauld and Brian White. Then they ran into Dennis Bouanga and LAFC. While being eliminated by the eventual MLS Cup finalists in the first round wasn't ideal, the team's overall performance was commendable. Unfortunately, the season's conclusion was overshadowed by head coach Vanni Sartini's spectacular outburst at the officials, which lead to a 6-game suspension that he will serve at the start of the season.
2024 Depth Chart: The Whitecaps started 2023 with an early 2000’s 4-3-2-1 Christmas Tree before closing out the season with a 3-1-4-2, and some times a 3-4-2-1. Sartini loves to tinker, who knows what shape they’ll play.
Goalkeepers: No changes here. Yohei Takaoka is expected to pick up where he left off as the starting keeper, with Isaac Boehmer and Max Anchor as depth options.
Defenders: The departure of full-back Richie Laryea will be a huge loss for a Whitecaps backline that struggled at times last year. Laryea was an elite two way player who gave the Whitecaps a different attacking dimension down either flank, notching 1 goal and 2 assists in only 12 regular season games, while being one of the leagues premier attacking fullbacks by just about whatever metric you want to look at.
To bolster their defensive ranks, the team has signed centerbacks Bjørn Inge Utvik and Belal Halbouni. Utvik, formerly the captain of mid-table Norwegian first division side Sarpsborg 08 FF, is advertised as bringing leadership and experience. Halbouni, another League1`Ontario graduate, last saw competitive action with FC Magdeburg II, in the German 5th division.
Regardless of how they line up, there seem to be a few defensive starters locked in: Ranko Veselinovic and Tristan Blackmon as CB’s and Samuel Adekugbe as a wingback or fullback.
There should be an interesting battle for the third centerback spot between Mathías Laborda and Bjørn Inge Utvik. Laborda was acquired from Nacional in 2023 and his $903k guaranteed compensation is a big cap hit for a player who hasn't hit the ground running. Depending on how he stacks up against the incoming Norwegian, this could be a make a break year for the 24 year old Uruguayan.
Midfielders: The Whitecaps replaced one MLS veteran with another. Julian Gressel is taking his talents, specifically versatility and passing, to south beach and free agent Damir Kreilach, the former captain of Real Salt Lake, will bring his leadership to the west coast. Kreilach was an MLS All-Star in 2021 with 16 goals and 9 assists, but the experienced Croatian has only tallied 5 goals and 1 assist over the past 2 seasons. A return to form will be required if Kreilach wants to break into the lineup.
Otherwise, the center of the pitch will be very familiar this season. Sebastian Berhalter and Ryan Gauld were both given new contracts in the off-season. Gauld put himself in the MVP conversation with an impressive 11 goals and 12 assists and will once again be heavily relied upon as the team's attacking spark. Ali Ahmed, the 22 year old Canadian who led (!!) the league in Net Goals Added per 96 min (CM’s with at least 1,000 minutes played), has successfully recovered from off-season surgery and will be looking to cement himself as one of the MLS’s most exciting young talents. Alessandro Schöpf, Andrés Cubas, J.C. Ngando, and Pedro Vite will vie for minutes in the midfield.
Forwards: Minimal changes in the forward group suggest the front office all in on Brian White, and for good reason. White was the teams top goal scorer (15), and led the entire MLS in Net Goals Added per 96 min. It could be argued that the Whitecaps have an over reliance on White and Gauld, their combined 42 goal involvements account for 50% of the teams total, but as long as they are both fit they represent one of the league's best attacking duos.
Cashing out on Simon Becher and replacing him with free agent Fafà Picault may prove savvy. Despite Picault’s modest offensive output of just 9 goals last year, he excelled in a Nashville team known for defensive solidity and Muktar's game winning abilities. Fafà's off-the-ball work, evidenced by his 2.5 Interceptions + Tackles per 90 minutes, aligns with the club's ethos. Signed through 2024, with an option for 2025, Picault offers flexibility without a long-term commitment.
Key stat(s) and chart(s) for 2024: Defensive Woes
Let's talk about luck. Over the course of their 36 games last year, the Whitecaps conceded 8 more goals than expected, 54 goals against (GA) vs. 46 expected goals against (xGA). Whether analyzing an individual or a team as a whole, significant underproduction of expected values tends to lead to the same questions: Were they simply unlucky and do we expect them to regress to the mean?
Looking at the data from each of their individual games across the season helps address those questions. The -3.7 GA - xGA coming from a 5 - 2 playoff loss to LAFC in their penultimate game stands out as an obvious outlier, and makes up almost half of the -8.2 GA - xGA, but that was really just the nail in the coffin for an overall poor defensive showing in 2023. Using the cumulative total bar at the bottom of the chart, we see that a midseason loss to St. Louis kicks off a downward trend that does not see the whitecaps break even from a cumulative GA - xGA standpoint for the rest of the year.
Why did the Whitecaps concede so much more than expected? The easy answer is a lack of quality and depth of the backline. Last year, the Whitecaps typically lined up with 3 at the back, with 2 clear starters, Tristan Blackmon and Ranko Veselinovic. Playing time was split between Javain Brown (a natural full-back) and Mathías Laborda for the third centerback position. Aside from Blackmon and Laborda, no other centerback options demonstrated a positive net g+ value, raising concerns in a system requiring three consistent centerbacks.
More info on Net g+ here
The front office addressed the centerback depth concerns with the acquisitions of Utvik and Halbouni, whether or not the quality improved as well, we will have to wait and see.
Key Player: Tristan Blackmon
To overcome their defensive shortcoming of last year, the Whitecaps are going to need someone to step up. Enter Tristan Blackmon.
On the back of a career-year, the 27 year old American centerback recently agreed to a contract extension through 2027. This is a well deserved extension and it will be interesting to see what salary numbers were agreed to because in the eyes of Net Goals Added, Blackmon is on the cusp of elite MLS centerbacks. Expect a big raise.
Although the Whitecaps may have underperformed as a group defensively, Blackmon was the diamond in the rough. Of centerbacks with more than 2,000 minutes played in 2023, Blackmon ranked fifth overall by Net Goals Added per 96 Minutes.
What makes Blackmon unique is how well he scores in the pure defensive metrics. Of his 0.06 Net Goals Added per 96 min in 2023, his offensive production, -0.01 per 96 min, actually hurt his overall score. Where Tristan excels is in his defensive contributions, where he scored 0.07 per 96 min.
The Whitecaps are expecting to build on last year's success and get back to the playoffs, Blackmon’s defensive contributions are going to be a critical factor in turning those aspirations to reality.
Outlook for 2024
Run it back. The front office made small tweaks to a squad that comfortably made it to the playoffs last year. Assuming the attacking duo of Brain and Ryan remains healthy, they have proven that goals will come. Significant offensive output from Ahmed and Picault would help them get to the next level. Lingering concerns remain at the back and if the Whitecaps want a chance at post season success they need a defensive unit that can contain the best strikers the MLS has to offer.
Pomy-kal Me Maybe
FC Dallas’s 2023 season saw the Burn fall a bit flat in Nico Estévez’s sophomore year as manager. 7th place finish in the West, down from 3rd in 2022, felt even worse for many fans as the team played to 7 draws in the last 9 matches of the regular season. Injuries were a common theme as they faced an injury crisis from June-July, lost Geovane Jesus and Alan Velasco to season-ending ACL injuries in the fall, and missed Jesús Ferreira in the team’s Game 3 playoff loss vs the Seattle Sounders due to a nagging injury. Interestingly, this also marked the 5th time in the last decade FCD saw their season ended by the Sounders.
On top of not-so-great results, the team played a bit of a dull style outside of this Messi-Mania fuel against Miami in Leagues Cup. The team recorded the 6th worst Goals Added For, the 6th best Goals Added Allowed, and an almost perfect 0 Goals Added differential. Dallas’s matches had the lowest Goals Added Total (For + Against) in the league as well. Slow and safe (and a bit boring) is a good characterization of 2023 FC Dallas.
Feel the Bern
One of the biggest positive trends for FC Dallas was new signing Asier Illarramendi, who tallied the highest Interrupting g+ / 96 of all midfielders in MLS since 2014 (min. 500 mins). Illarra flexed vision on both sides of the ball, stopping opposing teams’ attacks and quickly moving the ball into attacking positions. According to FBref, his 9.48 passes into the final 1/3 per 90 doubled the next best FC Dallas player, with many of those passes falling to Bernard Kamungo.
Bernard Kamungo was another revelation of 2023, fully breaking out in Leagues Cup with 2 goals and 2 assists in 4 matches, scoring a first-half brace to secure FC Dallas’s playoff spot on Decision Day, and earning call-ups to the U23 USMNT and January’s Senior USMNT camp. Bernie showed off an impressive knack for finding space behind backlines and finishing the opportunities he created, but he still has work to do to prove he can do it as a consistent starter over an MLS season.
Musa on the Loose
Perhaps the increased exposure of the Kansas City Chiefs due to America’s favorite budding romance changed the Hunts’ tune on spend for FC Dallas, as they unloaded the coffers this offseason. Not only did FC Dallas make an investment for the future on 17-year old Canadian-Romanian talent, Enes Sali for $3 million, but they also set the FC Dallas club-record fee to sign prime-aged Petar Musa from Benfica for a deal likely to total over $10 million.
Musa could be the signing needed for FCD to increase their offensive output in 2024 in a big way. Above is Musa’s Scouting Report from 2 years ago when he played for Boavista - while he has posted elite stats Per 90 in a sub role for Benfica since then, this probably paints a closer picture to what FC Dallas may get from him as a regular starter. He shows a lot of promise and should bring a new (much taller at 6’3”) dimension to the way this team can play.
The Big Shift
The Burn seem likely to start the season in a 5221 formation which they have used in every preseason match so far. In this formation, the current depth chart likely looks similar to this:
The team attempted to deploy a comparable 3-4-3 in several 2023 matches, but did not find much success. Nico Estévez appears to be keen on making it work, however, by dropping Ferreira into a 9.5 position alongside Arriola with Musa in front of them. In addition to Musa being a proven goal scorer on his own, it could get the most out of Jesús Ferreira, who managed 8 goals and 8 assists in a similar role under Ricardo Pepi in 2021.
Will it work? Time will only tell - Ferreira was not able to travel to Spain with the team due to a knock he picked up in the opening half of the team’s first preseason match vs Miami. In addition, Musa has not officially joined the team yet as he enjoys some rest and likely works through immigration processes. Without two of the likely top goal contributors of the season, it is hard to know how this team will play when the season kicks off.
Early signs without those two are positive, though, with wingbacks Dante Sealy, Herbert Endeley and Bernard Kamungo showing they can contribute to goals from wide positions. That group has scored 6 goals and added a couple of assists in the preseason so far. Goals from midfielders have gone down sharply under Nico to only 1 goal in 2023, so taking away a midfielder to deploy wingbacks may flip a switch in this offense.
Managing Expectations?
This team seems to have a really strong starting XI to deploy in a variety of shapes entering the 2024 season, but likely lack the depth to be a leader in the West. If Nkosi Tafari is able to continue his ascent as a great MLS CB, midfielders Paxton Pomykal and Illarra stay healthy, and the front 3 of Arriola, Musa, and Ferreira find chemistry together, they could be in the hunt for a home playoff advantage at the end of the season. There are a lot of if’s riding on that, though, and fans will have to hope the front office’s big bet on Musa elevates this team to a new level in 2024.