Season Previews: Atlanta United, Houston Dynamo, Real Salt Lake
/Atlanta United: Almada and Inshallah
2023: Garth is Good
Under the new leadership of CEO Garth Lagerway, Atlanta United returned to the playoffs in 2023, shaking off the previous season's disappointments. While Atlanta was ousted in the first round at the hands of the eventual champs, the team gave fans plenty of reasons to have hope for the future.
In 2023 Atlanta United finished first in goals minus xG, even while being top 10 in season-long xG. So they scored a lot, and they did it way better than expected. Some of that might be luck, some of that is maybe due to the finishing quality of their attacking players. Either way, the underlyings are strong even with regression.
On the other side of the ball, the defense was disappointing. Atlanta finished with the 6th most goals conceded relative to expectation (not good), which is especially bad considering that they conceded more xG than over half of the league. In other words, they gave up a lot of goals, and it was a lot more than you’d expect based on the quality of the shots they allowed.
The contrast in offensive and defensive performance was represented perfectly by Atlanta’s tendency to either score or concede early, often due to blunders or outrageous quality. This bears out in the data, which shows that Atlanta spent the least amount of time in a 0-0 game state. (This is negatively correlated with total goals, but there are exceptions, like St. Louis City, who had the 4th most total goals, but show up here with the 10th most time spent in a 0-0 draw.)
Defensive Reinforcements
The team’s defensive woes can be partially explained by underperformance from Miles Robinson—now departing for Cincinnati—and Brad Guzan—whose shot-stopping capability has fallen off a cliff—both of whom were returning from season-ending Achilles injuries in 2022. To fortify the defense, Garth has gone out and acquired goalkeeper Josh Cohen, CBs Stian Gregersen and Derrick Williams, and defensive midfielders Bartosz Slisz and Dax McCarty.
Aside from Robinson, the club bids farewell to a quintet of midfielders—Mattheus Rossetto, Franco Ibarra, Santiago Sosa, Amar Sejdic, and Ozzie Alonso. And the departure of Luiz Araujo midseason should (hopefully?) mark the end of Atlanta's Brazilian jogo bonito experiment.
With the departure of experienced players, Atlanta will be looking to rely on contributions of young talents like Tyler Wolff, who arguably already “made the leap” last season. Edwin Mosquera—aka the short Colombian Darwin Nunez—should also provide depth on the wing. Additionally, emerging prospects Jay Fortune, Noah Cobb, and Nick Firmino should be poised to step up during international breaks and injury crises.
In Almada We Trust
This preview has yet to mention Thiago Almada and Giorgios Giakoumakis (herein referred to as GG, for my spellcheck’s sake). This is because these players are probably too good for MLS.
GG is a #9 that any manager who loves crossing the ball would dream of, which is actually kind of funny that he finds himself in such a possession-oriented team. Either way, his ability to score a random header is much appreciated, even if his on-ball touch is not the best.
Almada is a classic #10 who you really cannot ask much more of. He is vital for his quality both in open-play and set pieces. (Some are calling him the Argentinian James Ward-Prowse for his set-piece brilliance.) His creativity on the ball has the potential to be rewarded even more this year with reliable midfield support behind him in Tristan Muyumba and (hypothetically) Bartosz Slisz–sorry, Mattheus Rossetto.
The real question will be how good can Atlanta be once Almada leaves in the summer (and/or ever gets injured for a significant amount of time). Fans probably would not have been optimistic about this team’s chances last year without him. But with what Garth has built this year, they can have more confidence that the support system can step up, even if the team has been very reliant on him in the past.
Wil-ey or Won’t He (Step Up)?
Caleb Wiley emerges as a pivotal figure for Atlanta United. I’d go so far as to say that he is the player most closely tied to Atlanta’s floor and ceiling, aside from GG and Almada. Wiley's lack of a direct backup—aside from a less-than-ideal alternative in Ronald Hernandez—underscores his critical role. While his performances mostly pass the eye test, his g+ wheel suggests that he was quite a ways below average last year, although he’s still very young and has plenty of time to improve. That his short comings are somewhat uniformly spread cross the g+ categories is a good thing, he is close to an average fullback (which at 18 is great!), but things like interrupting can be heavily impacted by a penalty given away
Almada’s trust in Wiley is crucial, as it could offer more variety in the attack. We should expect Plan A on offense to be the same this year—Almada combining with wingers and GG. If Wiley can be more involved, Atlanta won’t need to rely on the Plan B from last year—Brooks Lennon cross-and-pray.
Beyond Atlanta United, Wiley's development this year could be crucial for his aspirations of securing a spot on the USMNT roster for the 2026 World Cup and potentially a transfer to a European league.
Gonzalo Glory?
Despite an unfortunate first-round playoff matchup against eventual champs Columbus, Atlanta United demonstrated that they possess the caliber of a top MLS squad. Achieving a top 4 record in the Eastern Conference should be well within reach for this roster, alongside hope for a deep run in at least one of the Open Cup or Leagues Cup. With the roster looking strong all-around, this year will be pivotal in assessing Gonzalo Pineda's impact as a manager, as he’ll no longer have excuses with personnel.
Krei-less for Kreilach
Last season, Real Salt Lake finished 5th overall in the Western Conference and averaged 1.47 points per game (ppg). Their highest PPG finish since 2019 and only a point back from a top-4 seed placement in the playoffs. This was a strong season for most teams and especially RSL who has consistently made or pushed towards the playoffs over the last decade. Not only that but with the addition of Cristian Arango in the summer window they are seemingly on the cusp of a push into the top third of the western conference.
However, looking at their season over season data in expected goal difference, expected points and goals added difference paints a team, which despite adding strong talent and seeing growth in their roster may not indicate the same potential level of success in the future. The big surprise is how 2023 compared to 2022 in terms of the attack. Obviously, they outscored their 2022 peers and ended up in the top half of scoring in the league but both their g+ and xG both show a drop in productions, and might suggest they overperformed in 2023.
The attack for most of the season was actually pretty successful; their underlying numbers weren’t great but not bad. They were 10th in goals scored and 15th in xG. The big dip occurred in the second half of the season after the Leagues Cup where they were 19th in goals scored and 24th in xG. This probably, at least in part, contributed to their drop in form where in the last nine games they only managed 10 out of a possible 27 points.
Unsurprisingly their defensive efforts have stayed in line with the past and are very solid. This isn’t really much of a shock as the backline has been consistently strong there with their personnel Andrew Brody, Justen Glad, and now Brayan Vera having been huge staples of 2023. Pablo Ruiz is constantly a favorite among the g+ crowd as a savage defensive midfielder, and of course they have had that xDawg (or xHumanSpirit) factor going for them too.
One last note is on Zac MacMath who quietly had his best season as a starter since 2013. Unfortunately, we’ve got enough sample at this point to just say he’s more or less average. I’m not a huge “fire this guy” after they have a good season type of individual but as I feel keepers who are league average are pretty abundant around and in the US (seriously, go troll the USL xG keeper numbers and look how many of them are under 30) I’m a bit surprised they did not choose to strengthen their options going into 2024, or look to shed salary here.
Player's Departed
Damir Kreilach, Jefferson Savarino, Rubio Rubin, Jasper Löffelsend
First, the most important change the RSL had this off-season was with their General Manager, Elliot Fall, who was RSL “a lifer” and was kind of surprisingly let go the first of December. Overall his contract was ending and it seemed like the ownership/president Kimball felt it was a good time to make the transition, consolidating the position with Kurt Schmidt roles and responsibilities.
I’ll just say I liked Elliot Fall. I liked his general story. I liked that he had a background enabling him to be less dogmatic to cliche soccer movements and trends. I think re-hiring Jason Kries to the operations staff feels like a step backward for an organization that was trying to move forward. But in the end we can’t know immediately if this was a good move or not and it’s going to take time to see how things shake out. Overall you can look at this outgoing group and draw a couple of quick conclusions a) it was a transitional off-season for the organization as well as b) they were about clearing payroll off the roster. This is a team that desperately needed to both reorganize their invested assets and to raise the floor of its depth as they progressed forward and I feel like they mostly did that.
Damir Kreilach and Jefferson Savarino were both great guys for the organization having connections to significant moments in RSL history but they both held up a lot of resources both financially and in minutes on the field. Kreilach was a key fixture and an all-time great for the team. These moments of transition are always a bit sad but he opened up money and a place for what would end up being new DP Matt Crooks (more on that in a second). Savarino obviously also opens up a DP spot and I guess you could attribute some of the minutes to Crooks but really, and in my mind, he opens up minutes for Andrés Gómez who was promising across roughly 1500 minutes.
Player’s Added
Matt Crooks, Fidel Barajas, Alexandros Katranis, Tommy Silva (Homegrown signing)
Before this week started, it’s arguable that the top off-season move was Fidel Barajas, the 17 year old winger they purchased from USL and the Charleston Battery, a well they visited previously nabbing Diego Luna from El Paso. Barajas profiles as a somewhat below average (-0.03 p96) but much better than replacement level (+0.13 p96) winger in the USL Championship so far, across 2200 17 year old minutes? That’s pretty good. USL average grades out to something like MLS replacement level on the g+ scale, so Barajas is at least stepping in like a heralded MLS Next Pro player.
Much of January twitter was convinced that Josh Windass was headed to Sandy but it ended up being Matt Crooks who according to Davies was both a better fit and arguably a better player. Crooks ends up being more of an advanced midfield type that not only has the ability to help create goals but also will help in the development of possession.
RSL also signed two left backs, while already having a left back, for reasons. Alexandros Katranis will likely be the new starter after joining from the Polish Ekstraklasa. He has a high floor but he’s not someone I would expect to be an impact addition but rather could help stabilize the left side and give Diego Luna some overlapping run options which could be fun.
Realistically, he serves as a stop gap to bridge from Oviedo, who is getting up in age, to either Tommy Silva or Luis Rivera long term. Best case scenario is you have an abundance of young talented left backs that can get forward.
I would expect Silva to sit either second or third in the depth chart. The big question is how much time does Bryan Oviedo spend at left back this year. Oviedo seemingly lost a step last year which honestly I think made him a better defender. We saw him a couple times at Center Back and I’m guessing he’ll see more time there in 2024.
2024 Projection
RSL is 5000-to-1 odds on DraftKings to win MLS Cup. They are considered to be the 4th longest shots in MLS. This doesn't necessarily equate to playoff odds however and how they finish the season relates to seeding and positioning which breaks down the probability of how realistic it would be for a team like RSL to get to the Final. Home field advantage is a crucial aspect in November however, the other is also depth. The development of Palacio and Luna, the health of Glad and Ruiz, the settling of Crooks and Katranis as well as that second transfer window are all huge factors in what RSL does in 2024.
Are they a good team? I would have to answer yes. I think they have loads of talent in every part of the field. Do the numbers probably underrate that talent? Again, yes. They’re underperformance last year doesn’t necessarily carry over to this season but they have to change their ways. I would expect with Luna getting more minutes, a full season of Arango and Gomez, now with Matt Crooks, the attack will be considerably more dangerous but it needs to produce those underlying numbers or regression will happen. The regular season will matter greatly for a club like Real Salt Lake and even more so how they end the season. It’s not enough to yet again make the playoffs and be a feared underdog opponent. If they want to put themselves to be a true contender for MLS Cup contender they must have eyes on a very achievable 3/4 seed.
Can’t spell Houston without a little HH
Over the last few years, it has been tough to be a Dynamo fan. The Dynamo have only appeared in one round of playoffs in the past 9 years, finishing in the bottom 2 of the Western conference for 3 of those years in a row, giving us all little hope for the future. But all that changed in 2023.
2023 in Review
Lead by superstar Hector Herrera and his midfield partners (Dynamo ranked 3rd in midfielder g+ added), the Dynamo made the playoffs and the Western Conference finals for the first time since 2017. The Dynamo also brought some hardware home by winning their second Open Cup title.
Ben Olsen and the Dynamo staff turned the ship around and proved the doubters( definitely not me) wrong. Who knew Bennyball could produce such beautiful soccer?
The 2023 resume portrays the Dynamo as a potential top 5 team in the league. However, the underlying numbers (14th in xG and 18th in g+ differential) paint a picture of an average team. But even playing as an average team was a huge step up for Houston, who hadn’t had a positive xG differential since 2018.
Offseason Changes
The prior offseason was the season of change - bringing in a new coach in Ben Olsen and bringing in key contributors (Artur, Bassi, Escobar, Sviatchenko, etc.) to turn the club around. This winter, the team is hoping to keep the vibes going by maintaining the status quo. Corey Baird is the only player with more than 1,100 minutes in the 2023 season moving to a different team in 2024. Overall, the Dynamo are returning ~85% of their 2023 minutes played compared to 57% returning minutes the year before. The only additions so far include depth options of Jan Gregus and Gabe Segal.
One Big Question – Can Sebastián Ferreira be an elite average striker?
Oh sorry that was last year, let me rephrase that – can Sebastián Ferreira or Ibrahim Ailyu be an average striker?
Even through Houston’s success during the 2023 season, the Dynamo struggled to find a consistent productive goal scorer. Sebas was loaned out, Ailyu was adjusting to the league, and Thor Ulfarsson could not get into the starting lineup. Corey Baird started 28 games and scored a respectable but meh 8 goals. During the 2023 season, the Houston strikers contributed -6.7 g+ above average striker. This ranked last in MLS.
With Baird not being resigned and Thor sold to Europe, Houston will rely on their prodigal son Sebastián Ferreira, returning from his brief unproductive loan in Brazil (0 goals in 440 minutes) and the young U22 signing Ibrahim Aliyu.
Both Ferreira and Aliyu have struggled during their time in MLS. However, the Dynamo were able to succeed last year without a dominant frontman by scoring by committee. Houston had a total of 16 players score a goal last year. This ranks 3rd in the league for number of unique goal scorers. However, 16 of the 18 playoff teams last season had at least one double digit goal scorer and 7 of the 11 non-playoff teams failed to have a double-digit scorer. So, Dynamo are hoping either Ferreira or Aliyu can provide this production or Houston may be on the outside of the playoff picture.
With Nelson Quinones out for the year, I expect the Dynamo to start both players with Sebas at ST and Aliyu on the wing. Carrasquilla is expected to start on the other wing, but he primarily tucks in as an extra midfielder. This in turn puts even more of the goal scoring responsibility on Aliyu and Sebas. Houston was able to have a very successful 2023 season without an elite attacker but with injuries (Herrera and Nelson) already piling up, the Dynamo will have a higher reliance on the unproven attackers.
Even with the very concerning -.18 per 96 g+, there were some positives from Aliyu during the 2023 season. According to fbref, Aliyu ranked in the 69th percentile for npxG + xAG, 86th percentile for progressive passes received, and the 91st percentile for progressive carries. Plus check out the receiving. These would all make you believe that he g+ would be average at least, but when Aliyu got into these dangerous areas, he would often dribble out of bounds or pass it to the other team which g+ does not like. Here’s what Asher Mendelsohn, technical director of the Dynamo, had to say about him:
“It’s dramatically changed our ability to generate chances... And through things that are very hard to measure. Even just the threat of space in behind and being able to exploit that changes the way teams have to play against us, which creates more space for our attacking mids.”
Based on the underlying xG and willingness to carry the ball into the box, I have higher hopes for Aliyu being the answer to the Dynamo’s search for a consistent goal scorer.
2024 Prognosis
Dynamo are bringing the gang back together and hoping the good vibes continue. However, I don’t think Houston will be able to match the highs of the 2023 season. If HH can get back to full health and team can find that elusive goal scorer, I would expect Houston to make the playoffs for the second year in a row for the first time since 2013.