Season Previews: RBNY, San Jose, Nashville
/WELCOME TO FORS-BERGEN COUNTY
The prince that was promised finally arrived.
After years of fans clamoring for a bonafide star to take the pitch for the home team at Red Bull Arena, the New York Red Bulls finally went out and acquired such a player. Emil Forsberg, who’s been in the Red Bull soccer-sphere since 2015 with Leipzig, is the sort of player that can be an immediate gamechanger in MLS.
Ok, yes, Forsberg is 32, and no, he’s not necessarily a superstar. But he doesn’t seem to be in danger of any immediate decline after a still-productive final campaign in Germany. His per90 npxG+xA ranked in the 91st percentile for Bundesliga midfielders over the last year, per FBRef. Even if Forsberg does take a slight step back from his best years, it would still be a serious surprise if he didn’t prove to be an effective hub of chance creation in Harrison. And regardless of his on-pitch output, his veteran presence and experience at the top level should be an underrated addition to what’s shaping up to be an otherwise young Red Bull squad.
The question remains however: who will be finishing the chances that Forsberg will create? Every single forward on the RBNY roster last season that played a qualifying amount of minutes finished the season with a negative npG-xG differential (per FBRef). Unsurprisingly, the Red Bulls as a collective finished with the worst npG-xG differential in the league.
So what did the Red Bulls do to fix this problem and give Forsberg additional support? As of now… not much of anything. New York’s roster moves at the forward position this offseason have been as follows: trading the always industrious but often inefficient Tom Barlow to Chicago, and signing Roald Mitchell to a homegrown deal out of Wake Forest.
It’s possible the team is still betting on a breakout campaign from last offseason’s top signing Dante Vanzeir, who showed some glimpses of strong play in an otherwise average first year in MLS. But if that bet doesn’t cash, the forward situation could once again quickly prove problematic.
Oh yeah, there’s a new coach too:
For the fourth time since Chris Armas’ dismissal in 2020, a new boss will patrol the touchlines at Red Bull Arena. Gone is Gerhard Struber, who started out the 2023 season, as well as Troy Lesesne, who finished the season in an interim role. Enter Sandro Schwarz, who becomes the first RBNY manager to have had no prior connection with the Red Bull network (as a former player, assistant or otherwise) since Jesse Marsch.
Schwarz has been a head coach since 2009 - a position he’s served in at a number of stops, mostly in Germany. His two most notable stints were likely his last two gigs: a strong job in charge of Dynamo Moscow in Russia, and an ugly go of things last season with Hertha Berlin in Germany. Hertha won just five of Schwarz’s 29 games in charge, and he received the sack with the club staring down relegation in April.
In terms of style, the Red Bulls should still very much look like a Red Bull club under Schwarz. He’s already played the traditional hits in early media opportunities - intensity, high pressing and youth development. For better or for worse, the Red Bulls will likely always be a club where a broad, consistent identity will almost always be distinguishable, regardless of manager. The various assorted wrinkles and tweaks Schwarz will doubtlessly call upon in deploying this continued identity will be, like for many Red Bull bosses before him, what defines his tenure.
Other offseason odds and ends…
In terms of roster turnover from 2023, there’s not a ton to discuss for the Red Bulls. Former designated player Luquinhas headed to Brazil, and homegrown stalwart Omir Fernandez ended up in Colorado after his contract expired. Rotational midfielder Dru Yearwood was traded to Nashville, one of two minor trades alongside the aforementioned Barlow deal.
The incomings, however, have remained largely quiet as well. Forsberg is the crown jewel, but he’s also, really, the only jewel. First-round SuperDraft pick Aidan O’Connor received a contract and should offer depth at centerback. Kyle Duncan finished second on the Red Bull roster in G+ in 2023 and saw his loan from Belgium made permanent, reuniting him with the club he spent his academy days with.
The club’s other notable signing was Noah Eile, who fits the club’s traditional profile of a younger player with projectable upside. Eile isn’t unproven my any means - he’s made over 50 first team appearances in the Swedish top flight and cup - but he is still only 21 years old. Standing six foot five, Eile’s measurables certainly stand out, but the Red Bulls can also afford to take time with his development as the team’s preferred 2023 centerback pairing (Sean Nealis and Andres Reyes) returns for another year.
Ultimately, this year for the Red Bulls likely hinges on two critical factors:
The first is how much the returning players grow under a new coach shaping the lineup in his vision. One could argue the Red Bulls underperformed drastically last year, given their stellar expected goal differential. RBNY finished third in the Eastern Conference in xGD, behind only Supporters Shield winners Cincinnati and eventual MLS Cup winners Columbus - not bad company to keep!
But how much of that underperformance falls on the shoulders of a forward group that saw very little turnover over the offseason? Will a natural improvement to the mean give the RBNY a significant boost in the goals department with similar attacking options? Or will 2023 repeat itself indicating the team needs a refresh in front of goal? It’s time to find out if finishing is real, folks.
The other key storyline is just how much of an impact Forsberg makes right out of the gate. A veteran playmaker with immediate knowledge of a team’s core philosophy should fit the bill of a transfer nailed on to succeed, and succeed fast. But if the team’s woes in front of net continue, what else can he add beside creating unsuccessful chances? In an ideal world, he’ll shoulder a sizable portion of the goalscoring mantle himself. But perhaps just adding some calm, experienced leadership to a younger roster will prove a boost in itself.
We won’t have any answers on how much the 2024 Red Bulls improved from 2023 until Opening Day. But a safe bet - and one the higher ups in Harrison seem to have gone chips-in on - is that this team will go as far as Forsberg can take it.
Standing on Shaky Ground
As the Quakes enter into the 2024 MLS Season, and the second season with Luchi Gonzalez at the helm, they have the hope and expectation that they will build upon the success of the prior season. The stated bare minimum to the first season under Luchi was to make the playoffs, which they did…barely. They backed into the playoffs in the 9th and final spot after only winning two of their last 11 games after the Leagues Cup break and drawing all four of their games to close out the season. They even had to outperform the ASA expected goals model to get 44 points, since the model said their most likely number was 40 using 10,000 season simulations.
The improvement over the bottom-of-the-West finish the Quakes saw in 2022 was driven by significant improvement on the defensive side. Between Luchi’s tactical setup and key additions, such as Gruezo at the 6 and Daniel at goalkeeper, the Quakes went from allowing 69 goals (58 xGA) to 43 goals (48 xGA), fifth-best in the West. However, their subsequent slide in Goals scored kept them from those lofty heights. The trade off from the defensive solidity was a more ponderous attack that generated only 38 goals (40 xG).
Going into the new season, the plan for Luchi’s squad is to maintain their strong defense while opening up more in the attack. The stated goal now is to push for a home playoff spot, a move up the Western rankings by five spots. To get there the Quakes will need to see consistency from two major players, Daniel and down ballot MVP candidate Cristian Espinoza.
With Daniel, the Quakes front office and data analytics team have covered themselves in glory, bringing in a GK that immediately was the top-performing shot-stopper in the league on a per game basis. His 0.26 goals saved over expected per 96 minutes beat the 0.24 posted by MLS Goalkeeper of the Year, Roman Burki. The major difference between the two was that Daniel played only 22 games, due to injury, while Burki played all 34. Daniel’s excellent shot-stopping is in line with his performances back in his native Brazil so he can reasonably be expected to continue his fine run of form in the new season.
On the other end is Cristian Espinoza, the Quakes talismanic leader of the offense since his arrival in 2019. He has regularly been one of the most underrated players in the league, and last season was his best yet, to the tune of 13 goals (8 xG) and eight assists (10 xA). His dominance down the right side for the Quakes was in contrast to the lack of production from the left side, leaving him to carry the burden of producing for the offense alone. From all players with minutes on the LW they combined for all of five goals and three assists.
To take the next steps with the roster the Quakes have made some key subtractions and additions. On the backline they let go of Jonathan Mensah (CB) and Miguel Trauco (LB) while they added Bruno Wilson (CB) and Vitor Costa (LB) from Portugal, making four Portuguese speakers in the back, including Rodrigues (CB) and Daniel. With these additions, the hope is that the strong defense will remain while they will provide improvements in the attack. Bruno Wilson’s performance in Liga Portugal compares favorably to Mensah’s last season, in fact, FBRef.com brings them up as comparables to each other. The main difference should come from the LB spot. Miguel Trauco certainly had his highlight-reel moments with the Quakes last year, with three goals and one of them being the team’s goal of the year, but he lacked pace and didn’t get forward into the attack very frequently. Vitor Costa, on the other hand, has shown to be a far more well-rounded left back in Portugal, and FBRef.com names Andrew Gutman (CHI), one of the consensus top left backs in MLS, as a comparable.
Left: Miguel Trauco, Right : Vitor Costa
This leaves the aforementioned left wing to be addressed. Over the offseason, the Quakes sold homegrown attacker Cade Cowell to Chivas, leaving the spot open to Benji Kikanovic and a new addition. The new addition, announced last week, is Amahl Pellegrino, the back-to-back Golden Boot winner for Bodo/Glimt in the Eliteserien, the top flight in Norway. During the past two seasons in the Eliteserien, the 33-year-old attacker has scored 24 goals in 29 appearances (2023) and 25 goals in 27 appearances (2022). There is also his performance in European competitions where he’s scored eight goals in 12 appearances in the most recent Europa Conference League. Pellegrino clearly brings the attacking verve to the left side that the Quakes were missing all of last season.
The last major roster change is the departure of Jamiro Monteiro, the attacking midfielder playing on the left side in the nominal 4-3-3/4-1-4-1 that the Quakes lined up under last season. As a DP, Monteiro greatly under-produced in the attack for the team, providing only one goal and three assists on three xG and two xA. While he was adept at moving the ball forward and provided consistent defensive pressure in the middle, he was consistently lacking in creating opportunities. As of this writing, the Quakes haven’t yet found an external replacement for Monteiro’s minutes, opting for 26-year-old former college draftee Jack Skahan and 18-year-old homegrown Niko Tsakiris. While both showed promise in limited minutes last season neither fully demonstrated the creative ability that Monteiro was also lacking, but that is needed by attacking midfielders in MLS.
It’s clear that going into the 2024 season that the Quakes have identified their strengths and weaknesses. They are counting on continued goalkeeping excellence and solid defense to keep them competitive. On the offensive side they’ve added a more attack-minded left back and a top goal-scoring left winger to take the pressure off the right-sided attack. The only area they haven’t addressed is the left-sided central midfielder, although Luchi Gonzalez stated to Quakes Epicenter this past week, that the intent is to sign a DP attacking midfielder and potentially also a U-22 initiative attacking player. Come February 24th, we’ll see if the Quakes foundation, that they’ve clearly placed their faith in, is as solid as they hope, or if they will begin 2024 with some tremors beneath them.
Dollywouldn’t
By Eliot McKinley
In 2023 Nashville SC were considered something of a dark horse contender to win MLS Cup. Through July that seemed like a possibility as they sat second in the East. And then there was Leagues Cup. DP 9 Sam Surridge had arrived and Nashville advanced past eventual Supporter’s Shield winners, FC Cincinnati, two Mexican giants, Club America and Monterrey, and trounced Minnesota 5-0 before finally falling to Lionel Messi and Miami at home in the final after 10 rounds of penalties. Now known as something of a knockout tournament specialist, the Coyotes seemed poised to hit the ground running into the back third of the season, but instead face planted. They only won twice after Leagues Cup and were ignominiously dumped out of the playoffs by Orlando.
Offseason Changes
Despite a generally disappointing season in the end, GM Mike Jacobs and head coach Gary Smith decided to return the vast majority of the roster. Nashville returns players representing 86% of minutes and 82% of raw goals added from 2023. Key departures include inaugural captain and MLS legend, Dax McCarty and winger Fafa Picault. To replace them, Nashville traded for center midfielder Dru Yearwood from New York Red Bulls and wingers Tyler Boyd from LA Galaxy and McKinze Gaines from Charlotte. After successful trials, Nashville signed former Atlanta United midfielder Amar Sejdic and former Loon Brent Kallman as additional center back depth as well as a 17 year old homegrown Isaiah Jones for the future. With all three DP and their single U22 Initiative spot filled, don’t expect any other big moves until the summer.
Key questions: Can this team get younger and can anyone pass out of the midfield?
Gary Smith likes his veterans. Over the last two seasons, Nashville had the oldest squads in MLS with SKC running a close second. Nashville has started a player under 21 years old once in their history, Jack Maher, in his league debut on October 14, 2020 just two weeks before his 21st birthday. Nashville didn’t start a player under age 23 in 2023. Since 2020 the only team that has started fewer U-23 players than Nashville is St. Louis - and they are already 75% of the way to matching Nashville in their single season. Hell, Nashville’s lone U22 Initiative player, Dru Yearwood, turns 24 in two days (February 17, 2024)! Dropping Dax McCarty for anyone else in the league is bound to drop the average age here a bit, but everyone else on the largely static roster is another year older as well. With the CCC, Open Cup, and Leagues Cup, Nashville will be playing a lot of games this year. And while I’m not saying that having an aging roster is affecting Nashville’s ability to stay healthy and fresh to compete at the end of the season, I’m not not saying it.
Gary Smith’s teams are built around a solid defense and a counter attacking style that morphs into a cross first style if counter attacks can’t work. This can lead to a certain amount of success, and Nashville is the only modern expansion team to make the playoffs in their first four seasons in the league. But this style can also result in a lower ceiling for performance. We all know that crossing is one of the most inefficient ways of creating scoring opportunities and that through balls and progressive passes are among the most.
While dropping Dax helps the team get younger, it raises another issue, who is going to pass the ball forward from midfield? While Nashville doesn’t do a lot of progressive passing from the middle of the field, when they did do it in 2023, it was most likely coming from McCarty. McCarty’s 1 pass per 96’ in the conditions pales in comparison to league leaders like Almada and Puig who do it 2.5 times, it is still above the rest of Nashville’s midfielders, Godoy (0.74), Anunga (0.44), and Davis (0.28). Finding a player that can make, or at least attempt, these types of passes could be key to unlocking Mukhtar when plans A and B aren’t working for Nashville.
Key player: Anyone who can help Hany
Someone, anyone, please help Hany Mukhtar. Since Nashville joined the league in 2020, Mukhtar has arguably been the league’s best player, and almost certainly the player most valuable to his team. He leads the league in the percentage of his teams goals (35%), xG (30%), goals + assists (31%) and xG + xA (26%) and is near the top in primary assists (26%) and xA (22%). In short, if Hany is not scoring and creating, Nashville is not going to have a good time.
Nashville have tried to provide a secondary attacker to Mukhtar, but have failed with a litany of failed international signings including Jhonder Cadiz, Rodrigo Piñeiro, and Ake Loba. Those that have not flopped have been solid but not spectacular, guys like Randall Leal, teal Bunbury, and C.J. Sapong. Sam Surridge was brought in at great expense to be that guy, and it looked like he may have been during Leagues Cup, but he fell off hard along with the rest of the team towards the end. Perhaps a full preseason with the team will get Surridge back on track, but if not, there doesn’t seem to be anyone else on the roster likely to step up.
2024 Prognosis
With the current roster and like the last four years, Nashville will succeed or fail with the health and performance of Hany Mukhtar. A full season of a healthy Mukhtar (and especially if Surridge can find success) probably puts Nashville in contention for a finish near the top of the East. If Mukhtar misses a significant chunk of the season, Nashville will likely not make the playoffs for the first time. However, a run at the Wooden Spoon would seem unlikely given their defensive solidity, but Walker Zimmerman’s recent injury history could put even that to the test. After the disappointing ending to last season, Gary Smith currently sits on a slightly tepid seat that could heat up very quickly if things don’t start off well.
Season Prediction from my 8 year old son, Rhys:
Nashville will at least make it to the playoffs but maybe not past the first round. Also, I think Hany Mukhtar is going to be their star.