Season Previews: Montreal, Charlotte, Portland
/Columbus Deux: Boogaloo Électrique
Coming off the highs of the 2022 season, CF Montreal felt like they had some real momentum… then they let their best in league coach walk, sold their eight (maybe) best players, hired a maniac, and decided we’ll play 180 degrees different from our very successful previous tactical identity and now with mostly bad players. That went predictably badly, with Montreal undergoing a humongous -30 xGD swing from +18 to -12, as they just missed the playoffs in a weak Eastern conference. Also at some point they had to cut one of their few good players for fighting a guy in a men's league game. Truthfully, the less said about 2023 the better.
Laurent Courtois
We sometimes have a tendency to overrate the importance of managerial hires, when really organizational structures matter most. With the appointment of Laurent Courtois, former championship winning and MLSNP Coach of the Year of Columbus Crew 2, this hypothesis is properly going to get some testing. Courtois leaves perhaps the best run organization with Tim Bezbatchenko and Issa Tall in charge of the big club, and Corey Wray running Crew 2, that’s just a lot of Championship experience front office stuff.
In Montreal, Courtois comes face to face with an organization who have chosen profit taking over winning at every turn and he will have to coach and develop these players into something more, almost certainly without the assistance of a shrewd front office behind him.
Key Moves
Departures: Romell Quioto, Rudy Camacho, Aaron Herrera, James Pantemis
Arrivals: Josef Martinez, Dominik Yankov, Matias Coccaro, Raheem Edwards
Virtually the entire core of Wilfried Nancy’s is now gone with the departure of Quioto and Camacho, while stopgap acquisition Herrera was moved to DCU for Ruan and 500k in GAM. Luckily, Montreal largely stood pat on the nearly $20M in transfer fees they took in the year previous and here comes some spending. In bound are Canadian-Bulgarian dual national Dominik Yankov, Uruguayan striker Matias Coccaro, Mexican center back Fernando Alvarez, and Raheem Edwards for a combined $5M. Similarly, Josef Martinez joins on a free agent TAM deal.
The prognosis? Meh. We have no real data on Yankov, other than 14 goals in 60 90’s from age 17 to 23 for Ludogoretz. One goal every four is a pretty solid return, especially from midfield, but that is really not a significant minutes total across six seasons especially for by far the best team in a weak league. Let’s see (he scored in their first preseason game). Coccaro straight up stinks, his best ever xG season is 0.44 p90 and he’s closer to 0.3 his last two seasons thanks to the data with our friends over at FBRef. Alvarez joined during the summer and just didn’t play. Josef just… isn’t that guy anymore. His g+ in 2023 was ever so slightly above replacement level, and that’s with Lionel fricking Messi passing to him. Montreal don’t got a Messi!
The One Big Stat
Across his two seasons with the Capybaras, Laurent Courtois’ side just destroyed goals added as a metric. They ran a +9 receiving g+ in both boxes over the 2022 Next Pro season, the next best team in any next pro season is a +3. Just huge. The 2023 CF Montreal side ran a -1 in the same metric. It’s not everything, but we know that *ahem* receiving does have inherent value and getting the ball into good spaces (and conversely denying opposition the ball in good spaces) is of critical importance to a teams future performance.
Wilfried Nancy’s success in Columbus was built on swashbuckling aggressive possession play and man-oriented pressing, but his template for success in Montreal was absolutely not that. It was a very organized defensive team with wildly different personnel, that just denied any ability of teams to get into good spots and then ripped you in transition. There are a lot of ways to skin this particular cat, but denying those good entries is mandatory for Courtois in 2024.
The Outlook
I ultimately think there just isn’t enough talent for Montreal to really do damage in 2024, but I’d have them pretty close to the line. I back Courtois to do a good job, and the AFCON trio of Sunusi Ibrahim, Chinonso Offor, and Kwadwo Opoku, gave them some reasonable juice. With a more coherent defensive identity opening up some more transitions, maybe those guys thrive a little more. I still have some questions about their back end depth, but there’s talent in the starting group there and with good health.. Maybe things are looking up.
Dean Smith Rules the Carolinas (No, Not That One)
By Paul Harvey
Charlotte is led by their third manager in 3 years. They have already shipped out multiple players this year, including two of their DPs from last season.. If they can move Enzo Copetti, the team will have no DPs and under half of the minutes from the last two seasons will have been played by active players. It’s been clearout after clearout for Charlotte FC, as they just missed the playoffs for two years in a row. Last season the team struggled to create any offense until late, yet they still managed to be in the conversation for the playoffs. Is this the year they get over the top?
Enter Dean Smith
North Carolinians who are not plugged in to the world of soccer might have been confused when they saw that the local team had hired the late revolutionary basketball coach who established a dynasty and coached Michael Jordan at UNC.
The other Dean Smith wants to establish a legacy of his own. After failing to save a reeling Norwich City from relegation in 2022, he attempted to save a reeling Leicester City from relegation in 2023. Now, he finds himself in a situation where he can attempt to save a reeling team without any threat of relegation, which probably comes as a relief.
Dean Smith was appointed manager of the smartest club in soccer, Brentford, in 2016. He developed an attractive attacking style that led to a job with Aston Villa, where he helped develop Jack Grealish into a superstar. During his time with Norwich and Leicester his philosophy was tempered by the realities of battling relegation, and a need for a more pragmatic approach. Now, with Charlotte, he can lean into his philosophy and experiment with no need to worry about staying up.
Tabula Rasa
In many ways he’s starting out with a blank slate at Charlotte. That’s a problem since the season starts this month, but it’s also an opportunity. Their best returning attacker is at this stage probably Kerwin Vargas.
While that may not look good, Vargas led Charlotte in progressive key passes and was second on the team in shots. His shots were best coming from the left shoulder of the box, scoring all of his goals from essentially the same spot. He did have a tendency to take bad shots from beyond the box but that could be fixed. He had little pro experience before coming to Charlotte, so he has plenty of room to grow as a player.
On the depth side, outside of the midfield Charlotte is paper thin or unproven at best. Since the depth chart above was created Guzman Corujo moved, leaving just a few center backs, mostly unproven. The attack has been mostly cleared out with 17 year old Brian Romero next man up at right wing. The team has to bring in significant numbers to have a chance at succeeding this season.
The midfield is strong on paper with 3 veteran players in Scott Arfield, Brecht Dejaegere, and Ashley Westwood. The downside of having 3 starting midfielders over 32 is that they may not be able to handle the full load of an MLS season. Brandt Bronico is a sturdy veteran backup and Ben Bender has shown flashes of ability. The midfield will need to carry the team.
The Outlook
Can you call it a rebuild if you never got built? Charlotte has quite a job ahead of them and it would be reasonable to expect a year of building a team that can compete. There’s a chance that Dean Smith can take the spare parts and back benchers on the Charlotte roster and turn them into a smoothly operating machine, but that seems like false hope.
The most likely outcome is that Charlotte misses the playoffs for a third time, but hopefully in a fashion that keeps Dean Smith in the job and building to 2025.
Timbers Clear Deadwood: Rebuild Unfinished
Portland enters the 2024 MLS season on the back of a busy offseason from a disappointed front office. Timbers General Manager Ned Grabavoy did not pull punches in his 2023 end-of-season address, calling their 2023 campaign ”an incredibly frustrating season on many levels” with a team effort that just “wasn’t good enough.”
Oof.
After missing the playoffs for the second consecutive year, Grabavoy hard-reset the roster and sunsetted over $5 million of underperforming talent. The next three months saw sweeping changes, as the Timbers:
Appointed Phil Neville as the new manager,
Signed valuable defensive pieces to improve atrocious execution, and
Promised two club-record designated-player signings in attack.
Will Standout Defensive Signings Improve Defensive Execution?
First things first: Portland could have made the playoffs with a competent defense.The Timbers were the worst-executing MLS defense in 2023. Portland conceded a bottom-tier 58 goals from a middle-tier 44.4 xG, the worst defensive xG differential in MLS.
This was especially costly at the final stretch of the season, when the Timbers backline conceded a mammoth twenty goals over the last nine games (seven more than expected), costing the team a crucial five points in its last three games. Goalkeeping was poor throughout the season, with the Timbers goalkeepers being second-worst in the league in goals allowed against expected.Coulda, woulda, shoulda. But two silver linings exist:
First, A full-time manager will make a big difference: Portland’s defensive execution was bad before Gio Saverese’s exit, but only fell to worst-in-league in the eight games after the heralded Timbers manager was fired. Phil Neville will be a much-needed fresh start for the Timbers backline.
Second, Phil Neville can work with a bad defense: Neville’s Inter Miami made the playoffs in 2022 despite a defense that was not performing to expectations. Neville frequently switched Miami’s shape between four- and five-man backlines throughout the 2022 and 2023 season. This pragmatic switch can release Portland’s attack-minded full-backs, but will require greater depth across the line.
To fix this, Ned Grabavoy wanted to bring in players with MLS experience and leadership qualities. Canadian internationals Kamal Miller and Maxime Crepeau embody both of those points
Kamal Miller’s position-specific skill-set implies marked improvements for the team in both defensive actions (Interrupting) and Passing. Given his experience working with Phil Neville, I could see Miller as a leader whose passing skills and experience in a three-man set could create a needed release valve for a pressurized backline.
Maxime Crepeau commands a lot of respect in goal after leading LAFC to the 2022 MLS Cup. Crepeau will be motivated as the unquestioned number-one shirt in Rose City after having a 2023 season abbreviated by injury suffered in the 2022 final. I am particularly curious how his streaky shot-stopping will hold up in Portland: his goals allowed against expected has decreased consistently from his breakout 2019 season.
These signings have potential to turn around Portland’s fortunes by themselves, and the Timbers still have money to spend.
What High-Value Attackers Should Portland Sign?
"The next 2 signings will be the biggest this club has ever seen. We aren’t f****** around” - Merritt Paulson to supporters, per Twitter.
Desperate assurances aside, it remains tough to judge as to how the Timbers front office will move forward with the two open designated player signings. New coach Phil Neville has not been a club manager long enough to install a preferred tactical identity.
Phil Neville is known to do more with less. Inter Miami’s 2022 transfer sanctions forced Neville to leverage his man-management skills. In fact, Portland’s 2023 attacking output resembles Neville’s Miami team, except Miami made the playoffs.
Portland’s attack lost very little by shedding their highest-value attackers. The top 88% of outgoing player salaries (Blanco, Chara, Niezgoda, and Acosta) only contributed to 7% of shots and key passes in 2023. The 2024 Timbers attack may be the epitome of addition by subtraction. Moving on from those bodies opens up a lot of wages, but also a lot of usage for any new player coming in.
What about a target man? Franck Boli will be the only player missed by the 2024 roster. The Ivorian target man offered plug-and-play production for Portland, netting 7 goals and an assist across 18 starts. Boli was most valuable as a necessary focal point for the Santi and Evander show.
While Dairon Asprilla is more than capable of filling in his absence considering his five goals and ten goal involvements last year, neither he, Evander, nor Santiago Moreno can match Boli’s contribution as a receiving striker. Having a striker who can hold the ball up top will relieve the pressure and free up space for Evander and Santi to create more of their own chances. As always, receiving provides inherent value to a team. While Boli will be missed, there will be plenty of space-reading target men with more prolific shooting boots out there for over $12 million.
Verdict: Can the Timbers Turn it Around?
The Timbers will definitely be a team to watch in the second half of the regular season as the new signings take shape. The defensive problems have been fixed on paper, the new manager can get the most out of underperforming teams with high potential. But soccer is not played on paper, and potential has a limited shelf life. The most important part of the Timbers’ rebuild is still unfinished. The 2024 season will depend on the two club-record signings yet to come.