Season Previews: DC United, Minnesota, NYCFC
/Lesesne in the Membrane
DC United wasn’t terrible in 2023, finishing 12th in the Eastern Conference though racking up 40 points and a +5.99 expected goals difference per American Soccer Analysis data. But it was an uninspiring season nonetheless and a major offseason overhaul followed. So the Black and Red enter the 2024 season with what looks to be real change for the first time in a long time. Wayne Rooney is out. Same, too, with Dave Kasper. Ally Mackay (and Caleb Shreve!) are in. So is Troy Lesesne.
So what can supporters of DCU and MLS watchers across the world expect? As always with a new regime, it’s hard to say. Let’s start with Lesesne. He comes to the District directly from a spell with Atlantic Cup rivals New York Red Bulls, taking over for Gerhard Struber in May 2023. Lesesne might not be the most stereotypical energy drink soccer manager, however. Though he joined NYRB as an assistant in 2022, he started his coaching career at the college level at the College of Charleston. From there, he jumped to USL, assisting at Charleston Battery and Charlotte Independence before landing the manager job at New Mexico United. Given how style bending big energy drink is with their coaching staffs, perhaps that’s a better place to look for his true “ideas”.
According to the invaluable John Morrissey, Lesesne’s New Mexico United teams pressed aggressively and relied on long balls forward, but could also find success in possession. It isn’t too much of a leap to expect a system built around pressing and playing in transition. However, the question remains how quickly Mackay and Lesesne can turn over the Kasper-Rooney constructed roster to one resembling something in line with their preferred game model.
There’s already been lots of turnover. Mackay was active in the trade market, swapping Ruan (and 500k GAM) for Aaron Herrera and Chris Durkin for Jared Stroud and Lucas Bartlett. Other key contributors from 2023 including Derrick Williams, Donovan Pines, and Andy Najar also departed.
Two Timelines
Mackay and the rest of the front office face a challenge in reconciling the more aggressive win-now aspirations of the previous regime with constructing a roster that can turn DCU back into a playoff threat for years to come. The most obvious example holdovers remaining from last season are Designated Players Christian Benteke and Mateusz Klich.
Differing timelines aside, any discussion of the Black and Red’s roster has to start with Benteke. Even though he underperformed his xG (14 goals on 18.33 xG per American Soccer Analysis data) in 2023, he was still valuable, and per goals added, one of the most impactful players in MLs. Even on an up-and-down team, Benteke was able to consistently find dangerous positions and take shots. In his review of Lesesne’s New Mexico United, Morrissey noted that the manager preferred to rely on a target striker and Benteke certainly seems to fit that mold.
But Benteke and Klich are 33-years-old and were brought in under the previous regime which seemed to have a win-now mentality. How well those players match up with the new regime’s timeline remains to be seen. Unlike Benteke, Klich did not enjoy a great season in 2023 (-0.04 g+ above average per 96 minutes).
21-year-old Young Designated Player Matti Peltola is the first major acquisition for Mackay and company and seems more on the timeline of the DCU’s young talents. Supporters of the Black and Red will be looking to see progress from the likes of Ted Du-KuPietro, Kristian Fletcher, Jacob Greene, Gabriel Pirani, and Matai Akinmboni.
Centerback remains a weakness on the roster, with only Steve Birnbaum the only player who contributed more than 1,000 minutes for DCU returning. Christopher McVey, who arrived via trade from Inter Miami, and Bartlett will look to provide stability alongside the Black and Red’s captain. But it certainly appears to be a weak spot heading into the 2024 season. The Black and Red will be hoping that Aaron Herrera plays more like the outside back he was at Real Salt Lake rather than the one he was in Montreal in 2023, but also offers an unconventional center back option if Lesesne ever opts for a back three..
So what does a successful 2024 look like in DC? A comprehensive plan from the front office and coaching staff seems like a good place to start. All indications so far are that the Black and Red will be building towards something. It might not just happen in 2024. But some positive steps from any of the highly touted youth coupled with another good Benteke season and a coherent identity on the field should start to turn some heads around the league.
Bad Loon Rising
In my season preview for Minnesota United last year, I stated that with their roster and turnover a playoff run and respectable performance in the Open and Leagues Cups was needed, or major changes were in order for the club. None of those things happened and it seems like the club ownership agreed, clearing out their front office and letting Adrian Heath go.
Now, they’re in a time crunch. They did hire former Barnsley exec Khaled El-Ahmad for the empty role of Chief Soccer Officer, but he didn’t end his contract with Barnsley until December and barely has begun his work with the team. Because of this, there is no head coach and Sean McAuley Cameron Knowles is the interim for the foreseeable future. The season is coming up fast and El-Ahmad and Knowles have to work even faster to be ready.
Still El Rey
There’s no discussion about Minnesota that doesn’t center around Emanuel Reynoso. Yet again, he was late to preseason, sparking questions about whether or not he would even return. When this happened last season he didn’t get his first game with the team until June and played just over half the season. Despite that, his usage was the highest it has ever been on a per 90 basis, entering the upper echelon for Burden Above Average per 96 in the history of MLS. In return for that usage he played some pretty amazing soccer.
As long as Reynoso wears a Minnesota United kit he’s going to be the man for this team. He’s got the ability to keep Minnesota in every match and pull out moments of magic when the team needs it most. The question now is whether or not the supporting cast will be enough.
The rest of the crew
Minnesota has put together a nice group of multi faceted players that can play in a number of different positions; players like Joseph Rosales, Kervin Arriaga, Hassani Dotson, and Robin Lod. They provide ample support for a team with a solid goalkeeper in Dayne St Clair (113 goals on 113.2 xG over his MLS career. Bongokuhle Hlongwane showed he could be a game changer last season, putting up the best G+ in the Leagues Cup (just beating out a guy named Lionel Messi).
The one area that Minnesota can’t get right, despite spending big again and again, is at striker. They are among the worst MLS teams for production from the striker position year after year. They have had multiple striker DPs, representing different styles and approaches, but the last time they had any notable production from the position was 2021.
Teemu Pukki was supposed to be the player to fix that problem. He came in after a stellar career in the EFL Championship, becoming the talisman for a yo-yoing Norwich side. He seemed to be someone who could fit all over the offensive front, combining with Reynoso to make magic happen on the pitch. It didn’t quite work out that way. Despite receiving more G+ Burden than the average striker, he produced a little below average G+ and just 0.42 xG per 90. Not a terrible season, but also not anywhere near what Minnesota needed.
Minnesota has another option, though. Tani Oluwaseyi has bounced around on loan, most recently with San Antonio FC. Throughout his time in lower leagues he has been absolutely dominant, and last season he led the USL Championship in xG/90 comfortably. He’s a big and fast striker with a great left foot, who can operate in tandem with a striker like Pukki. He needs to see minutes at the MLS level this season and be given the chance to show he can translate USL success to MLS glory. They’ve also acquired Jordan Adebayo-Smith, another strong lower level performer if not as electric as Oluwaseyi.
Season Outlook
Yet again, Minnesota brings back a solid core of players with a great deal of MLS experience and production. Yet again, they have a talisman who is among the best players in the league. There’s no reason Minnesota United shouldn’t make a deep run in the playoffs or contend for cups this year. Which I said last year. And the year before.
It’s strange and frustrating to watch a team that is reasonably talented and well put together trip over themselves again and again. There’s no glaring incompetence or absentee ownership. There have been injury issues, losing key midfielders like Arriaga and Dotson, which are hopefully behind them. Reynoso’s erratic behavior has shaken some of the confidence around the team, but that on its own should not keep them from performing up to expectations.
With the team starting from zero at the front office and coaching level, this year should be a chance for redemption, or at bare minimum competence. Minnesota fans deserve it.
7 Train to Cushing
New York City Football Club fans are used to having nice things. Their team set quite the standard from 2016 to 2022, firmly entrenching itself among the elites of Major League Soccer. During that stretch, NYCFC ranked 2nd in MLS in npxGD (+0.33) and g+ differential (+0.37) per game. With the backing of City Football Group’s finances and global scouting network, that success should last forever right? Right?!? Somebody say right!
Then 2023 happened.
NYCFC finished 11th in the Eastern Conference, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2016. A general sense of blah enveloped the team as a once-prolific attack sputtered. The Talles Magno at center forward experiment only served to alienate the team’s young star. A defense 3rd in npxGA, led by DP center back Thiago Martins, kept them in games but an offense 20th in npXG couldn’t win them. Fourteen draws, tied for 5th-most in the last decade, illustrate a stagnant team living in constant mediocrity.
What happens when you rip away vicarious success from a group of people? They take up arms and invade the Capit- erm, wait, sorry, wrong notes. Ah, here we go - they want to blame someone!
Many of those cries targeted head coach Nick Cushing but let’s start somewhere else, gestures vaguely at roster construction. Call it a miscalculation of the existing roster or arrogance that it could stay in the playoff race until summer, but many significant outgoings from the prior year were left unaddressed going into 2023. Historically, the MLS season is forgiving enough that even if you f#$% around like that in the offseason, you often don’t find out.
NYCFC found out in 2023. By the time technical director David Lee got down to business and reinforcements arrived in the summer, it was too late. NYCFC won a single regular season game between late April and late August, dooming their season.
New Look NYCFC
Lee and NYCFC appear to be on a better schedule heading into 2024. While those midseason additions could not salvage last season, they are a big reason why there is a renewed sense of optimism that NYCFC can get their attack back on track. Center forward Monsef Bakrar popped in his first half-season in the States, ranking 3rd among strikers and leading NYCFC in g+ above average per 96. Julian Fernandez, a left-footed right winger, impressed as well and took the sting off the unexpected, but highly profitable, departure of Gabriel Pereira to Qatar. Club legend Maxi Moralez returned from Argentina to add ball progression (+0.03 passing g+/96) and be the adult the team needs.
A late season ACL injury and an upcoming 37th birthday most likely means Moralez does his parenting from the bench this season, settling into a super-sub role. Adding that level of quality off the bench will still be incredibly valuable for NYCFC though. Head coach Nick Cushing made the 3rd-fewest substitutions last season, in large part due to not having any game-changers on his bench.
An active offseason suggests the front office has learned the lesson taught by 2023 and ensured NYCFC will have a bench stacked with attacking options. Hannes Wolf joins on a free transfer from Borussia Monchengladbach as a post-hype sleeper looking to rediscover the potential that elevated him to the Bundesliga as a teenager. The Austrian offers an instinct for runs in behind and can operate on either wing, though Cushing also considers him a No. 10.
Agustin Ojeda arrives from Racing Club with barely 1,000 first-team minutes under his belt, but boasts a jump-off-the-screen talent that warranted a $5.5 million transfer fee. Like Wolf, the teenager is expected to see playing time on both wings, where he uses immense pace to attack fullbacks 1v1. Wolf and Ojeda add to an attacking group that now goes seven deep. Neither may force their way into the starting eleven, but will create competition for the expected starting front four of Magno, Bakrar, Fernandez, and Santi Rodriguez.
While the new guys may be getting the headlines now, the most important factor for NYCFC returning to its previous offensive heights is Keaton Parks. The American midfielder is indispensable as the link between defense and attack. No other player on the roster (and maybe in MLS) can replicate Parks’ ball progression. Even though Parks was only very good instead of elite in 2023, he still ranks 1st among all DMs in g+ above average and 3rd in the same category on per 96 minutes across the last five seasons. He also ranks 5th and 8th, respectively, in completed passes over expected per 100 passes and npxG+xA per 96. Getting Parks back to his best is critical for NYCFC to have a balanced attack this season.
The same can be said for Magno and Rodriguez. The DPs were supposed to be the engines of the attack, picking up the mantle from Moralez and Taty Castellanos, but both stalled in their growth. Body language doctors and apologists alike might theorize they, just like the fans, were less than thrilled with the shift in the team’s style and it affected their play.
A team historically fun to watch and seemingly fun to play for didn’t look like it in 2023. The possession-based, up-tempo attacking soccer became less identifiable. That loss of identity, and the knock-on effect it had on Magno and Rodriguez, ultimately fell on Cushing.
Some semblance of a possession style remained, but a malaise pervaded the attack. The sense of urgency was gone. NYCFC’s vertical progression per pass is down 15% under Cushing in comparison to the Vieira-Torrent-Deila eras and their expected pass completion percentage has jumped nearly 3%. The risk management balance between ball-retention and being goal-dangerous shifted too much towards the former.
Returning to the swashbuckling style that exemplified NYCFC before 2023 can be the rising tide that lifts Magno and Rodriguez’s g+ back above 0. Whether that’ll happen is one of the biggest questions facing Cushing, a CFG lifer who you’d expect to stick to the dogma more than most. The Englishman has a couple other big questions left unanswered entering 2024, such as: why aren’t they pressing anymore? Why is he playing Matias Pellegrini so damn much?
Well, that last one is settled actually, we’ve been mercifully protected from having to watch Pellegrini anymore. Praise be to the god of your choosing! The pressing thing though, that’s still very much up in the air.
A Bellwether for Success
Once known for its high line and aggressive defense, NYCFC’s press dissolved under Cushing. Pressing frequency in the attacking half reached a six-year low in 2023. Opponent pass completion over expected similarly peaked last season, indicating a less effective press when they did make the effort. Less possessions starting in the attacking half exacerbated the offensive struggles, a lack of bite that many NYCFC fans consider sacrilege.
There is an expectation that NYCFC will get back to being NYCFC in 2024. Cushing has featured such a high line in the preseason that it screams midlife crisis. The “man hits 40 and wears a leather jacket and buys a sports car” of coaching tactical development. Central defender Thiago Martins recently expressed a return to the style of NYCFC’s glory days, saying “We are an attacking team this year. We want to play a high line, we want to press, we're working every day to improve (that) identity for the season”.
That would certainly be a good start to get Nick Cushing back into the good graces of the fanbase. He’s got everything he needs now that David Lee is done f#$%ing around and assembled a roster capable of achieving what Martins describes before the season. One more striking option would be great and if rumors of Serbian prodigy Jovan Mijatovic come to fruition, NYCFC are going to be scary. There’s an argument they already have all the talent they need to return to the upper echelon of MLS and contend in the Eastern Conference either way. The fans may once again have nice things after all.