2020 Season Preview: New England Revolution
/Point-above-replacement values are explained here. Non-penalty expected goals + expected assists are explained here, and you can see all players’ xG+xA in our interactive expected goals tables. Touch percent is the percentage of total team touches by that player while he is on the field, which can be found in our interactive expected passing tables.
“Parity translates to mediocrity. It doesn’t translate to excellence.” - Bruce Arena (2014)
You know, it’s kind of easy to imagine why the coach of the Los Angeles Galaxy might feel that way. After all, circa 2014, they were still the biggest club around, flexing their money advantage as much as the rule book would allow them and maybe sometimes just a little bit more. The Galaxy were more or less a lonely yacht moored in a league mostly populated by the kind of boat owned by upper middle class hobbyists. Those boats that are often neglected, dock fees piling up, the owners wondering if this thing is actually worth any of the hassle.
And to be clear, I don’t think he’s wrong. The boat he found himself the captain of in the middle of 2019 was a result of that parity. Mediocre was a charitable way to describe the mess Bruce inherited following the bizarre and disastrous tenure of Brad Friedel, a captain who motivated his crew by holding a can of gasoline and waving around a torch.
Friedel was fired exactly the amount of matches he was in charge of too late, and by that time the New England Revolution had opened their 2019 campaign with two wins, eight losses, and two draws. It was a kindness. The first sign of caring ownership had showed in years. The neighbors had started talking about the boat with the rotting hull, and the Krafts finally felt like it was probably about time to patch that thing up.
Cometh the hour, cometh Bruce. I’m not going to pretend that what happened next was a miracle. It wasn’t. The New England Revolution got better. Obviously. How could they not? Results improved considerably, but the actual play? Only marginally so. Perhaps their rise to an unlikely postseason berth was all Bruce. A proof of concept about the power of competent leadership and motivation. Or maybe, just maybe, for the first time in his career, Bruce Arena appreciated that mediocrity that parity had created.
| Manager | Games | Shots | ShotsAgainst | G | GA | GD | xGF | xGA | xGD | GD-xGD | Pts | xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedel | 12 | 10.6 | 13.3 | 0.92 | 2.5 | -1.58 | 1.31 | 1.76 | -0.45 | -1.14 | 0.67 | 1.11 |
| Arena | 22 | 14.9 | 15.7 | 1.73 | 1.23 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.78 | -0.38 | 0.88 | 1.68 | 1.17 |
Look, I’m not trying to discredit what the Revolution accomplished. They had a destination in mind, and they arrived at that destination despite being shot in both feet while wearing buckets of salt for shoes right out of the gate. But, if we’re going to acknowledge the accomplishment we should also ignore some rather unpleasant truths like, for example, that New England posted the third worst xGA in the history of our data-set (back to 2011), and listen, that got slightly WORSE under Arena’s stewardship. So, how do you explain it? The answer my friends, is rather simple.
“The only thing experience tells me is that you can’t be 100 percent sure about any player.” - Bruce Arena
It’s Matt Turner. Obviously, it’s Matt Turner. I don’t mean to understate the influence of Bruce or Gustavo Bou or the magnificent Carles Gil, but there was exactly one reason why the New England Revolution halved their goals allowed despite not improving their xGA. That reason was a 25 year old goalkeeper from Park Ridge, New Jersey. A man whose goalkeeper of the year snub is only matched in scandal by basically every other goalkeeper of the year award. Yes, one of the greatest goalkeepers in American history managed a soccer club that was giving up two and a half goals a game, and somehow left not only the best goalkeeper on his team, but one of the best in the entire league on the bench. Good riddance Brad.
“I don’t want to blow a lot of hot air … but I’m pretty successful at what I do. There’s reasons for it.” - Bruce Arena
PLAYERS IN:
D - Alex Buttner (11/1/19 - free)
M - Damian Rivera (11/11/19 - Homegrown)
GK - Jeff Caldwell (11/25/19 - waivers)
M - Kelyn Rowe (12/4/19 - free agent)
D - Seth Sinovic (12/17/19 - free agent)
F - Adam Buksa (12/20/19 - transfer from Pogon Szczecin)
D - Henry Kessler (1/9/20 - SuperDraft)
PLAYERS OUT:
D - Jalil Anibaba (11/19/19 - Expansion Draft)
F - Juan Agudelo (11/21/19 - option declined)
F - Juan Fernando Caicedo (11/21/19 - option declined)
D - Edgar Castillo (11/21/19 - option declined)
D - Michael Mancienne (11/21/19 - option declined)
F - Brian Wright (11/21/19 - option declined)
GK - Cody Cropper (11/21/19 - out of contract)
M - Zachary Herivaux (11/21/19 - out of contract)
Bruce Arena hasn’t exactly done a squad overhaul. The biggest off season addition is undoubtedly DP striker, Adam Buksa. Unfortunately, advanced data on Buksa isn’t readily available, so all I can tell you is that he’s a pretty tall guy (6’3) and he scored 21 goals in 83 appearances for a few teams in the Polish Ekstraklasa. The reported $4.62 million fee may seem a little bit on the high side for someone with that kind of stat line, but he’s young, the club are high on him, and he’s done well enough in preseason.
Alexander Buttner comes in to replace Edgar Castillo, and the Dutchmen has a pretty tidy looking resume having turned out for Manchester United, Dynamo Moscow, Anderlect, and Vitesse. Will he be better than Edgar Castillo? I don’t know! It’s certainly possible! Other additions are the re-acquisition of Kelyn Rowe whose brief sojourn to Sporting Kansas City and Real Salt Lake was utterly unremarkable, and Seth Sinovic, a good MLS veteran who should provide good depth at left back. The other intriguing signing is superdraft pick Henry Kessler. Kessler is a Generation Adidas player, who had a very successful career at the University of Virginia, anchoring a defense en route to an ACC Championship and a College Cup final appearance. While it’s unclear just how many minutes Kessler will see. He’s not far down the depth chart of a defense that’s shown itself to be, let’s say… inept, at times. So let’s not rule anything out.
On the departures side, New England bid farewell to well meaning but not terribly good defender Jalil Anibaba. Juan Agudelo also departs for warmer climes after making 142 appearances for the club, scoring 28 goals. Cody Cropper, who was never going to unseat Matt Turner again, now turns out for Houston and the aforementioned Edgar Castillo will ply his trade for Atlanta. All in all, nothing too significant.
“When you are tentative and wait for the game to come to you, sometimes it never gets there.” - Bruce Arena
So what does 2020 have in store for the New England Revolution?
Goalkeeper; Matt Turner will be the goalkeeper. Brad Knighton will back him up. If a healthy Matt Turner is relegated to the bench again, I will set fire to that stadium.
Defenders
The deal for New England’s first choice for a center back this off season, Samba Camara, was unfortunately scuttled due to visa issues. That means that starting duties will likely fall to Andrew Farrell and Antonio Delemea. These will be familiar faces to Revolution fans. Kessler, who by all accounts has had an impressive preseason, will be pushing for minutes along with a resigned at a much cap-friendlier deal, Micheal Mancienne. Buttner will take over duties at left back with Sinovic deputizing, while Brandon Bye will resume his duties as the starting right back. As we discussed above, this defensive unit wasn’t exactly stellar last season, and I’m not sure a new left back is the dosage needed to rectify that. Either Kessler impresses enough to assuage any doubts around the back line, or I would expect New England to be shopping again.
Midfielders
New England’s midfield is actually pretty solid all things considered. Carles Gil needs no introduction. He was outstanding last season, earning Newcomer of the Year plaudits for his efforts. Wifried Zahibo, an all star in his first season with the club, will anchor the midfield, with Luis Caicedo, Rowe, and Scott Caldwell all pulling down minutes where needed depending on formation and health. Reports out of preseason suggest that Bruce has been tinkering with a 4-3-3 formation. Honestly, I’m not exactly sure how that looks, but I’d guess it involves Zahibo and Caicedo forming some kind of double pivot behind an advanced Carles Gil, or maybe not. We’re going to have to wait until First Kick to see what Bruce has in store.
Forwards
Assuming, we’re progressing with the 4-3-3, Buksa will spearhead the trio with Bou and Teal Bunbury out wide. Bou never really struck me as a wide player, so I’m not entirely sure how this will work. Last season Arena favored a two striker look, and that honestly makes a good deal more sense to me with the personnel at his disposal. Bou sitting behind Buksa sounds like a better recipe for success, but Bruce Arena has won several MLS Cups, and I’m up at two in the morning googling “Adam Buksa + xG + please it’s late just give me something work with” so, i’ll defer to him on this and all matters related to soccer coaching. Throw Christian Penilla and Diego Fagundez into the mix somewhere in that front three, and honestly this forward corps looks really strong.
“I would imagine I’ll find some kind of employment after the World Cup. If not, I might want to be a sportswriter.” - Bruce Arena
New England feels like a really hard team to gauge this season. If they continue their upward trend from last season, I fully expect them to be competing for a playoff spot. Are they ready to go blow for blow with Eastern Conference heavyweights like Atlanta and NYCFC? I’m not sold. The defense was was awful last season and completely dependent on the miraculous works of Matt Turner. The issue is that not much has changed back there. I have no doubt that Matt can and will continue to work magic, but if his form even drops from “otherworldly” to merely “really good”, New England is going to have a tough time winning matches no matter what kind of work Bou, Buksa, and Gil put in. I know this feels like a cop-out, and that’s probably because it is, but the only thing I’m comfortable predicting is that whatever we see New England do, it will be interesting. New England are finally on the right track again after years of malaise. If the organization continues to improve and invest, it won’t be long until they return to those days of yore competing for trophies. With Bruce at the helm, it may be sooner than we think.