Major League Soccer and the MLSPA engineered one of the quietest Collective Bargaining Agreements in the history of American sports last week. There was no public discourse. No mudslinging. No use of public opinion for leverage. The players obediently showed up to preseason without so much as a whisper. Both sides were obviously close and had an agreement to be amicable this time around.

New CBAs result in players getting more of what they want, and this one was no different. The players successfully negotiated for more money, greater freedom of movement, and amenities like more charter flights. Public opinion, colored by the excitement of a new season, reflected that the players did well. Opinions were also colored by seemingly impressive claims that the players could be making 36% more money by the end of the agreement. Very few of us could imagine 36% more in income five years from now. The numbers sound impressive, but as usual lack context. Let’s add some, shall we?

First, how did this CBA compare to the last one? This time the players took a different, less hostile, approach. Did this new peaceful stance pay off? How did the last CBA translate to actual spending on players? Is the new CBA a clear improvement? Did the players get a bigger slice of the revenues? And how do MLS players do compared to other professional athletes?

Once this context is added the tone might be a little more critical and even maddening as fans realize that Don Garber’s “league of choice” goal is now officially just a PR campaign, and was never real.

So how did this CBA compare to the last one? You’ll see from the chart below that this one looks like business as usual. The trend from 2014, the year prior to the last CBA, barely seems to change.

Sources: 2014 CBA Announcement, TAM Adjustment 1, TAM Adjusted 2, American Soccer Analysis Salary Tables, 2019 CBA Announcement

In fact, from 2014 to 2019 the guaranteed salary budget grew 75% and the non-guaranteed salary budget, which includes discretionary TAM, grew 160%. For the period from 2019 to 2024, those same numbers compare at 64% and 36%. It appears the growth rate of player wages has actually slowed a little. To be fair, almost all of the TAM money was added after the CBA was ratified, and a similar process could happen during this CBA period, accelerating these curves. But there is clearly no step change in compensation with this new agreement.

While all of the league’s salary budget claims are interesting, nothing beats actually paying the players. From 2014 to 2019 total actual player compensation grew 70%, a rate slightly below both the guaranteed and non-guaranteed budget rates. That’s because teams slowed their growth on DP spending over that time-frame. Growth rates focused on guarantees don’t necessarily translate to overall league spending. Owners still have ways to manage their overall expenses.

Now a look at the financial pie. Please refer to this prior article for details of revenue estimates made by Forbes. Total league revenues divided across all teams grew 48% from 2014 to 2018. Revenues aren’t available for the 2019 season but if we assume average annual growth rate continued in 2019 then revenues grew 63% across the term of the CBA. That is indeed less than the 70% growth rate of actual player wages! The players won! Yes, and no.

In 2014, player wages as a percentage of revenues was 25%, by far the lowest level across all major American sports and all major international soccer leagues. Over the course of the last CBA that number grew to 26% (f you believe the revenue growth number assumed above). Even if revenues did not grow in 2019 the players were paid just 29% of revenues. Not a material shift. Not the kind of shift needed to earn league of choice honors.

Now recall that the guaranteed growth rate of player wages actually slowed with this new CBA and you can see that MLS players will continue to be, for the foreseeable future, among the worst paid athletes across major sports relative to the money they help create. Revenues might also slow some but when you consider MLS has a TV deal to negotiate in the middle of this deal, odds are owners will still be growing revenues substantially.

But television highlights another CBA feature that drives home the mindset of the owners. The new MLS TV deal will be done in 2022. The new CBA offers the players 25% of the revenues above a $100 million dollar increase in the existing TV deal. The first $100 million goes straight to the owners and funds some of this wage growth, but that 25% number absolutely indicates the rough target for how much owners want to pay the players. Keep in mind that other American sports leagues pay players closer to 50% of league revenues. The Premier League pays players 55% of revenues.

One more point to drive home the continued disparity in the well-being between owners and players. According to Forbes the average value of a team grew from $157 million in 2014 to $313 million in 2018. That’s 99% growth, significantly more than the revenues or player wages grew. The big winners are the owners, and this new CBA doesn’t require them to invest in the quality of their product at anywhere near the rate of their peers in other sports.

Yes, the season is uninterrupted. Yes, the players got more money, freedom and comfort. But they’ve continued to accept a sub-optimal share of the revenues the league generates. This peaceful new CBA just guaranteed more of the same.

Here is a table of the figures used to calculate the growth rates in the article

American Soccer Analysis

American Soccer Analysis