2020 Season Preview: FC Dallas
/Point-above-replacement values are explained here. Non-penalty expected goals + expected assists are explained here, and you can see all players’ xG+xA in our interactive expected goals tables. Touch percent is the percentage of total team touches by that player while he is on the field, which can be found in our interactive expected passing tables.
By Jason Poon (@jasonhpoon)
For FC Dallas and their fans, the 2020 season feels like sophomore year in college. You’ve settled in to your new digs, figured out how to get the best class schedule, have your core group of friends, and you know the best spots to get a cheap slice of pizza at 1 a.m. After turning over a good chunk of the roster from 2018 and installing a new coach in Luchi Gonzalez, just about everything was new in 2019. For 2020 Luchi’s still running the show, and aside from the departure of Dominque Badji, the roster is mostly intact from the end of 2019 as this team heads into Gonzalez’ sophomore year in charge. The club and the fans know what to expect for the upcoming season.
Dallas went all in with Luchi’s philosophy of #PlayYourKids and attractive, possession style soccer but it didn’t come without some bumps along the way (getting shut out 11 times in 34 games). Despite the rough patches, they also showed lots of promise for the future as Jesus Ferreira, Paxton Pomykal, Reggie Cannon and Brandon Servania cemented themselves as the core group to carry this team. Dallas will look to build off that core group and while squeaking into the playoffs was just fine for 2019, all eyes will look for them to climb the standings in 2020.
2019 IN REVIEW
Dallas was probably the most frustrating team in MLS to watch in 2019. As I wrote here, Dallas is in their tween years, full of promise yet displaying frustrating lapses of stupidity. At times, Dallas can look like the league’s best and then in the very same week look like Wooden Spoon contenders. That is par for the course when a bulk of your team isn’t legally allowed to drink yet.
That being said, the focus was always on the long game. You don’t throw eight Homegrowns under the age of 24 into the 18 without expecting there to be struggles. But you are banking on those low points to become teaching moments that allow the kids to thrive in the long run when those valleys come again.
Dallas looked decent for stretches of the season before they sold defensive midfielder Carlos Gruezo last summer. The sale of Gruezo was expected, but replacing the anchor of the midfield with young players proved harder than anticipated. DP Bryan Acosta slotted into the #6 role, but struggled as he preferred to be more of a box-to-box type. FCD also struggled with finding any kind of consistency up top as noted earlier, Dallas was shut out 11 times in 2019, despite recording their second highest goal total in club history (54 goals scored).
Dallas did finally settle into its rhythm once Zdenek Ondrasek found his way into the team and scored seven goals in seven games to end the season. The Cobra’s performance was much needed for Dallas to squeak into the postseason, but raised the question, “What took so long?” By that point in the year, the emotional and physical wear and tear of carrying FC Dallas were evident for Paxton Pomykal, not to mention that he had the U20 World Cup in the middle of the season too. Had Ondrasek been ready earlier, one would wonder whether Pomykal wouldn’t have had to shoulder so much responsibility for the team.
There were some positive growths from the players, as Reggie Cannon went from starter to USMNT regular and league-elite right back. Brandon Servania and Jesus Ferreira made the jump from the bench to being regular starters. Edwin Cerrillo was a small revelation as he was signed early in the season and, within two weeks of getting his pro contract, made his first start. Cerrillo parlayed some early confidence into making the U20 roster, despite not having been involved with the USYNT at any level prior. John Nelson was fun when he got the chance to play and Ricardo Pepi has Dallas fans salivating at his potential to develop into a lethal goal scorer.
All in all, Dallas looked very promising in 2019. The question is whether any of that will translate to on field success in 2020?
Roster Changes
Players In:
F - Fafa Picault (11/26/19 - trade from Philadelphia)
M - Thiago Santos (12/5/19 - transfer from Palmeiras)
D - Eddie Munjoma (1/13/20 - Homegrown)
F - Franco Jara (1/7/20 - free)
Players Out:
F - Cristian Colman (10/29/19 - option declined)
M - Edwin Gyasi (10/29/19 - option declined)
D - Moises Hernandez (10/29/19 - option declined)
M - Eric Alexander (10/29/19 - out of contract)
F - Dominique Badji (12/2/19 - traded to Nashville)
M - Pablo Aranguiz (12/30/19 - loaned to Universidad de Chile)
M - Jacori Hayes (1/21/20 - traded to Minnesota)
With the exception of Jacori Hayes, Dallas basically unloaded all their deadweight from 2019. Dominque Badji was the lone player that left that played any significant role with the team, which meant Dallas didn’t really need too many pieces for 2020. If anything, Dallas needed two players; an offensive player to help with the goal scoring inconsistencies, and a defensive midfielder to replace Gruezo. Dallas accomplished that by bringing in Thiago Santos to be the destroyer. Fafa Picault will push for minutes and more consistency on the left wing, and Franco Jara will reinforce the striking options when he arrives in the summer.
Basically, at least on paper, Dallas made the moves to upgrade their glaring weaknesses that plagued their 2019 campaign.
2020 Roster Outlook:
It’s a bit hard to estimate how Luchi will evolve his tactics for the upcoming year given that the first few friendlies/scrimmages (at the time of this writing) have been closed to the public. Barring some kind of change, it seems most likely Dallas will continue to develop their 4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1 base that they used primarily in 2019. But based on the Starting XIs, it appears Luchi is experimenting with a 3-5-2 during the preseason and could possibly be keeping that in his back pocket when needed.
Goalkeepers
Jesse Gonzalez is expected to keep his starting position after a strong 2019 campaign. Gonzalez is a top shot-stopper (-1.15 G-xG in 2019) and made some strides in commanding his box better last season. Thankfully he also stopped that time-wasting yellow card strategy that became a drinking game among the viewers. But should Gonzalez falter a bit, Dallas has the capable hands of veteran Jimmy Maurer (-0.07 G-xG) who actually had a higher save % than Gonzalez (66.7% vs 65.6%).
Fullback
The big question right now is “what’s going to happen with Reggie Cannon”? Cannon has been the starter, but he has yet to sign a new contract. All signs are pointing to him being gone this summer, especially with Dallas signing another Homegrown fullback, Eddie Munjoma. Expect Cannon to keep his starting spot, but don’t be shocked if Homegrowns Bryan Reynolds and Munjoma get some minutes early in the season.
On the other side, Ryan Hollingshead seems to be the favorite for Luchi, with his penchant for making overlapping runs leading to a career-high six goals from the left-back spot in 2019. There’s speculation that Hollingshead will slide over to the right if Cannon is sold, and Nelson will step in.
Whatever happens, Luchi seems to really favor getting his fullbacks getting in on the attack and is not afraid to overload either side to create advantages on the sidelines.
Centerback
There’s not a lot of change expected in this area for FC Dallas for the upcoming year. Reto Ziegler and Matt Hedges will return as the incumbent starters, and will have Bressan and Callum Montgomery to back them up. 2020 first-round draft pick Nkosi Burgess is expected to make the team, and most likely will see minutes with North Texas. The spine of the Dallas defense, which finished T-3 in tackles per game (17.7) and 4th in interceptions per game (11.2) to remain in 2020.
Midfielders
Dallas is expected to continue their three-man midfield where they will deploy a triple-pivot where all three mids basically cycle between their offensive and defensive responsibilities at will. This is probably the most complicated position to predict, given that almost everyone on the roster is deserving of a starting spot.
Because Thiago Santos just arrived (at the time of writing), my hunch is that Edwin Cerrillo will win out the starting spot, and will be paired with Brandon Servania and Jesus Ferreira. Yes, that leaves off DP Bryan Acosta and Paxton Pomykal, which is insane. At this point, it’s all a toss up and very much depends on who’s healthy and available. I anticipate a heavy rotation here and an almost indiscernible difference whenever the players are rotated.
Wingers
Michael Barrios has been the most reliable and consistent winger for Dallas in over half a decade. He has transformed his game from goal-scoring threat to a chance creator in the past two seasons and shored up his passing abilities somewhat. Thankfully, Barrios has figured out how to get his head up once he gets to the byline and sorted out how to put in a decent cross. Barrios was tied for third in the league (along with Carlos Vela) with 13 primary assists (outperforming his 9.6 xA) in 2019 and will likely hit double digits again in 2020.
As consistent as Barrios has been on the right, nobody has really figured out the left side since Fabian Castillo’s departure in 2016. Dallas has run out a handful of players on the left wing to balance out what Barrios brings on the right, with little success. With Badji gone and Picault in, it’s anyone’s position for 2020. Picault is most likely to take it, but it wouldn’t shock anybody if Jesus Ferreira finds himself on the left, either. Of course, DP Santiago Mosquera, who basically embodied the 2019 season (ups and downs), is still on the roster. Sometimes Mosquera looks like the answer, like when he provided a goal and an assist in the 6-0 drubbing of Sporting Kansas City during #DecisionDay. But then at other times he looks like he’s trying out for a weekend rec team, as evidenced from his combined 4.1 xG+xA numbers in over 1200 minutes.
Striker
Ondrasek is probably one good season away from cementing himself as a cult favorite, but he will need to hold off a rising Ricardo Pepi and the incoming transfer of Franco Jara over the summer. Barring injury, Ondrasek will be the starter with Pepi getting some minutes to spell the Cobra late in games. What will be interesting to see is whether Luchi will change the formation at all once Jara arrives. Jara is allegedly going to be the highest paid player in FC Dallas history. That would come with some high expectations to start. Ondrasek is also a TAM level player, and he already had a spell on the bench. So it will be interesting to see if Luchi opts for a 4-4-2 to get both strikers on the field at once.
2020 EXPECTATIONS
Given that the core of the team is back, and with most of the players who played significant minutes under the age of 25, there will be high expectations for Dallas and their 2020 campaign. Getting into the playoffs was the goal for 2019, and with the upgrades in place and Jara coming, Dallas should be aiming for a top four finish in the West.
If Dallas does build on their 2019 season and nobody has a major regression, I can see this team challenging for the top three in the West. The bottom would be finishing 7th. With all the talent and depth at their disposal, they shouldn’t fall below the red line by the end of 2020. Shouldn’t. But this is MLS, after all, and just about anything is possible.