LA Galaxy - Postseason Preview
/by @harrison_crow
2019 REVIEW
In my view, the difference between the 2018 LA Galaxy and 2019 LA Galaxy was their willingness to come to terms with their direct style of play, their dependency upon their benevolent god Zlatan, and their need to score multiple goals to win games
No longer is there a pretentious and almost gaudy feel to the tactics employed in Carson. This is a team with fewer comparative luxuries than in past years to do something amazing all leading to unflappable success and glory. Now, there is only Zuul--errr Zlatan. Oh and Pavon. But it’s been good enough to buy them a lottery ticket for their sixth MLS Cup.
When Guillermo Barros Schelotto (GBS) arrived this off-season there was a hope that he would restore the Galaxy back to their rightful place upon the Western Conference throne. His ability as a tactician and reputation as someone who could deal with big personalities under duress would be a huge asset to a team needing to restore order. While he’s brought balance, it’s been inside a storm of chaos. Instead of a return to fun and exciting soccer, it’s been a more lustful indulgence in a pragmatic style of play.
Romain Alessandrini’s knee surgery back in April doused the possibility of a ‘Plan B’ developing and instead has driven GBS straight to his boom or bust, longball, cross happy, make Harrison have anxiety approach. Despite its chaotic nature it’s largely worked out about as well as it could have with Zlatan scoring 52% of the team’s total goals.
While Zlatan has kept his end of the Faustian pact, the defense has been poor, causing nearly as many problems as it has the last two seasons. They’ve survived by outscoring opponents more rather than shutting them out. In the second half of the season alone the team allowed 37 goals. This was the fourth worst in the league behind CIN, SKC and HOU. These are not teams that you wish to be associated with when you have MLS Cup aspirations.
The truth is that right now the LA Galaxy are on life support. The second-half of the campaign saw them struggle, earning only 20 points out of 17 games with an -0.16 average expected goal difference. If allowing lots of goals hurt, it’s made all the more worse knowing their scoring also tailed off.
Stumbling into the playoffs, they’ve managed to get by largely due to the fact that they had a quietly magnificent first half and won a couple of very key games when needed in September (the Montreal and RSL games were specifically huge from a probability and playoff security perspective).
They’re not a team without question marks but this isn’t about the regular season. It’s the ability to play in four extremely tense and compelling knockout matches. We can only wait and see what LA Galaxy team shows up.
TEAM STATISTICS
Possession: 49.9% (11th in MLS)
Passes Per Game: 449.5 (12th in MLS)
xGoals For: 41.2 (3rd in MLS)
xGoals Against: 39.6 (20th in MLS)
While Zlatan has delivered the haymakers it has been Jonathan dos Santos who subtly became the Captain, leader, and difference maker between the lines that the team has sorely needed. He’s been the maestro behind the scenes to the star soloist, Zlatan, pulling strings and orchestrating the team’s possession and transition game. The team leader in possession chains (1,091), teamchain% (25.4) and expected buildup 26.4 xG he ranks 14th, 6th and 5th respectively in all of MLS. He’s been the true fulcrum for this attack.
JDS hasn’t had to do it alone though. He’s been deployed with Sebastian Lletget (10.7% of team touches) and Joe Corona (12.6% of team touches) as a triumvirate of central midfielders helping to provide cover to the defensive and each carrying responsibility for delivering their possession payload and orchestrating new ways of getting the ball to Zlatan.
Despite obvious and rather overt tactical preferences, the trio is still finding opportunities out wide for those sending in crosses. Their assistance helped his team ride the rough seas of statistical anarchy while driving a suicidal amount (721) crosses from open play, second only to Portland.
Amazingly enough, Zlatan won an outrageous 155 of 236 (66%) aerial duels and turned 35 crosses into shots, good for 5.72 expected goals alone. If you need perspective on this xG tally, by itself, it is more than any other Galaxy player had from open play with the exception of Uriel Antuna (7.5 xG from open play).
Antuna has floated under the radar a bit this season. The 22-year old on loan from Manchester City has gone on to play for the Mexican national team this year and he’s been the greatest creator for Zlatan and his chances over the course of this season accounted for 2.96 xAssists to Zlatan. He’s also the only other player to regularly generate chances from open play for the Galaxy.
Antuna’s quality hasn’t given the team a solid number two option in lieu of Zlatan, but it has given them someone who will create opportunities from out wide. Something desperately needed after losing Alessandrini.
FORMATION
WHY THE GALAXY WON’T MAKE THE MLS CUP FINAL:
Boom or bust finally catches up. The end.
There are other reasons, more than a few of them, but there aren’t any better reasons as to why the Galaxy wouldn’t make the MLS Cup Final. Zlatan’s ability to consistently win aerial challenges is uncanny and considering his career appears completely sustainable. My issue is trying to outduel every team 5-3 or 4-2, this is where the sustainability dies.
While the defense has gotten slightly better, it isn’t saying really all that much for the state of this club. The amount of money and the players they’ve injected to this point just leads one to believe something is broken. Either with the tactics or with the personnel on the field and this team needs those back four to step up big.
Diego Polenta, Giancarlo Gonzalez and Daniel Steres all need to be better. They don’t even have to have “big” games so much as just regularly execute on their challenges, and keep the ball in front of them. The problem is they really haven’t been able to do even this much most of the season.
Not only all of that --- which is by itself a lot weighing against them --- if Zlatan doesn’t provide the gusto for a win, and he’s been notably absent in games for huge chunks of time especially down the stretch, I’m not sure this is a team that’s capable of beating an opponent without him.
There isn’t a single team in this playoff pool more reliant on one single player for their success as the Galaxy are with Zlatan. That alone is a huge indictment upon the organization and yet is just a footnote on the collection of many reasons why they might not reach the playoff final and their sixth MLS Cup.
WHY THE GALAXY WILL MAKE THE MLS CUP FINAL:
Zlatan is a legend and while his antics are played out and a bit tired at this point, he’s still someone that can and often will deliver when the moment presents itself. It’s hard to bet against him because he simply does the unprecedented. Arguably the best team in MLS history has been unable to beat him despite having the superior line-up, tactics and (arguably) coach.
He hasn’t gotten much mention yet, but there is also Cristian Pavon. He’s a bit of a wildcard with not yet showing that top-level gear which has been promised to have (he has caps with the Argentina national team, ya’ know...) but the talent is still obvious and even in the little things he’s still making the Galaxy a better team.
Since Pavon’s arrival, he ranks 13th in MLS with 37% of his possession chains leading to a shot being created. Should the stars align and things finally click for this young creative attacker it could cause a lot of problems for their opponents. Zlatan is already competing to outscore opponents by himself but when paired with a lethal number two, it could push this LA Galaxy over the top and towards that sixth cup.