2019 Atlanta United Postseason Preview

2019 In Review

by @tiotalfootball

In the 2019 Atlanta United Preview for ASA, I worried that de Boer’s preseason stated goal of “keeping everything the same in attack but improving the defense” might be a wild goose chase. After a title-winning 2018 in which Atlanta’s back 3/5 often found themselves in 1v1 duels and won them while putting up some of the best defensive metrics I’ve seen, the team opened 2019 in a 3-4-3 with Remedi and Nagbe holding and struggling to link defense and attack. Brek Shea became involved at left wing back when injuries early in the year basically put a hold on the first team career progression of young George Bello. The team quickly morphed into a 4-3-3 that de Boer seemed more comfortable with, but even after a month or so as the positive results started to show up against a run of weak competition, rifts in the dressing room were apparent to anyone who was even remotely paying attention. If it wasn’t Pity Martinez mouthing off to South American media about disagreements with the manager, and Leandro Gonzalez Pirez and Ezequiel Barco echoing certain of those sentiments at the All-Star break, it was Josef Martinez scoring a goal on the road and immediately and vigorously berating the coaching staff for all to see.

Whether by epiphany, mutiny, or simply good fortune, Frank de Boer permanently shifted the team away from a more “under control” 4-3-3 into a fairly wide-open and pressure-intensive 3-5-2 in July, and for the most part, the team never looked back.

Whether coincidence or not, young American central midfielder Emerson Hyndman showed up right around this time, making his first appearance against Seattle as a substitute, and playing every single match following his introduction, ending the season by starting and playing 90 minutes each of the last seven regular season matches. Hyndman by my estimation is a top passer with great instincts whose knack for finding space and making smart, positive runs is unmatched by any player on the team. The kid has a rocket of a foot as well and finds shots for himself inside the penalty area. That said, while he can step up with a timely high press from time to time to win the ball back on the counter press, otherwise, his defensive presence is severely lacking for a central midfielder, and he would do well seek out the ball even more than he currently does in the buildup.

I’ve said all of this without saying an important name and probably the biggest story of 2019 for Atlanta United: young American center back Miles Robinson. The defender’s athleticism and poise have come together to create a highlight reel of a season in hero defending when some of his more careless teammates lose the ball in midfield. At the midseason mark, I was quietly sounding some alarms at American Soccer Analysis headquarters about Robinson’s poor play in possession. This after all was the knock on him in his first two seasons as a pro with Tata Martino, Jeff Larentowicz and others on record as saying he had to improve his decision-making on the ball to see more time with the first team. While his defensive skills were unquestionable, Robinson was a detriment to his team in attack over the first half of the season, which was a problem given the overly possession-oriented approach de Boer’s tactics called for. Sure enough, the possession chain data bore this out as Cheuk Hei Ho impressively showed in his introduction piece on a possession-based plus/minus system: With Or Without You. When the ball moved to Robinson in Atlanta United’s defensive third, the team’s xG output dropped precipitously. Even when controlling for successful advancement of the ball from the back, when Robinson completed passes forward to the midfielders, the team’s xG output was markedly worse than when Robinson’s defensive partner Gonzalez Pirez completed passes to the same midfielders. It was a real problem, and a problem that the team’s shift to a 3-5-2 appears to have solved. With Robinson sweeping centrally between two ball-playing center backs in Gonzalez Pirez and Escobar, the team has still benefited from his marvelous hero-defending and athleticism, and the new buildup structure only requires that he distribute laterally along the back 3 to launch his team’s possessions (while also affording him the opportunity to split lines if the situation demands it). The average pass difficulty of Miles’ attempts has dropped since this change while LGP’s has increased as both players’ xBuildup and pass score figures have improved. It’s the best of both worlds and Robinson’s coach and teammates have all echoed the importance of his defensive abilities in allowing the rest of the team to pour forward in attack. On the Benny/Sal podcast, captain Michael Parkhurst mentioned how “Miles standing on the halfway line 1v1 with the striker” enables Atlanta to do all of the good stuff they’ve been able to since July. On top of all of this, I do believe his on-the-ball decision making has improved – after all he is still young and we would expect this to get better over time – but the team is playing to his current strengths finally. For the record, tasking one player to clean up the mess for the rest of the team may be a less sustainable strategy in the playoffs than it is in the regular season.

Update: Miles Robinson has gone down with a hamstring injury about a week out from the first round of the playoffs. If Robinson can’t go on Saturday, you would expect to see legend Michael Parkhurst or Florentin Pogba take his spot.

I can round out the 2019 Regular Season review saying that Josef Martinez continues to be a bona-fide star and legend in the city, Julian Gressel has put up two seasons in a row now of historically elite open play goal service from out wide and deserves a big pay day, and Darlington Nagbe remains one of the best at knowing when to move the ball forward though midfield on the dribble and when to make the simple pass to recycle possession. His attacking transition play is starting to heat up as well – keep an eye on this. Ezequiel Barco and Tito Villalba have managed only half of the minutes we expected of them this year – and they may ultimately be the true wild cards of Atlanta United’s playoff attempt. Midseason acquisition Justin Meram has stepped in admirably at left wing back in Brek Shea’s absence and has shared some truly jubilant moments with the club. His ability to win 1v1 dribbles against opposing defenders is genuinely exciting, but by my estimation, his play at wing back is still probably a weak point for opposition scouts to focus on.

Playoff Formation

This is the big question for Atlanta in the playoffs. With a team stocked full of playoff caliber players, who gets into the starting eleven? On the left above, is the most recent starting lineup, featuring Barco in the forward line and Hyndman and Nagbe partnering with Jeff Larentowicz to form a midfield triangle. While this may, in fact, be the first-choice lineup, Atlanta fans will surely notice that it does not feature record designated player signing Pity Martinez or Eric Remedi who has held the starting #6 role for most of the year. I wrote about this already: the stats strongly suggest the MLS veteran Jeff Larentowicz is the better option to shield the back line over Remedi but we’ll see what happens.

The middle graphic above shows what is probably the most mainstream first choice eleven, with Pity partnering Josef Martinez and Barco playing the most advanced of the central midfield positions and Remedi at the base of the triangle. The only problem I see with this is that it sends to the bench Emerson Hyndman, who is about as much a lock as I can imagine for a starting spot, having played 90 minutes each of the last seven games of the regular season. Lastly, on the right is the throw-back-to-championship-side theoretical lineup, with Barco playing the Almiron role in the forward line, Gressel tucked inside (heresy!) and Franco Escobar free to dominate whoever he finds in a physical 1v1 matchup on the right flank. This won’t happen, but it’s worth remembering some words of wisdom from Tata Martino when he constructed something very similar for the 2018 playoff run:

"You play the playoffs differently (than the regular season) in any part of the world,” Martino said when asked by Goal. “Look at the Copa Libertadores and see if they play the same there as compared to the first round or in the tournament. It’s clear that teams prioritize the need to avoid errors because if you lose a league game in Week 9 and then you win in 10, 11, and 12 then nothing happens, once again you're up in the standings. But here when you make a mistake and commit an error, you're eating nuts in your house.”

Lastly understand that without a healthy Miles Robinson you can mix and match Parkhurst/Pogba in there, so long as you move players around. Leandro Gonzalez Pirez is actually right-footed, so he is would shift if the left-footed Pogba plays.

Will Atlanta United make the MLS Cup Final again?

My prediction is that If New York City FC wins its conference semi-final match against either Toronto or DC United, Atlanta United won’t make the MLS Cup Final. I’ve discussed my overall concerns with @thedummyrun on his website here, but at a high level only once in three years have I seen Atlanta play on a baseball diamond in New York and looked anything remotely like a team deserving of a win, and that was last year in a violent playoff affair that featured ugly goals and numerous fouls, professional or otherwise. Simply put, I don’t think Atlanta can beat NYCFC in New York 5 times out of 10. On the other hand, if Atlanta advances to the Eastern Conference final and is able to host the match – NYCF having been unceremoniously knocked out in the wrong ballpark -- then there’s no legitimate reason why Atlanta won’t win it, other than soccer being hard and stuff tending to happen. As was the unavoidable fact in the preseason preview, Atlanta United is simply too stocked full of talent to be significantly bested at home by another Eastern Conference team, and after some midseason soul searching, they’ve also found a style of play (with an upper-tier high press and counter-press) that is brutal to face in Mercedes Benz Stadium, but weird things do happen.