Real Salt Lake: Postseason Preview

by: @harrison_crow

2019 REVIEW

When the assignments came out for playoff previews I begged, pleaded, and asked Ian nicely for the opportunity to write about RSL (editors note: there was literally no other person interested). I feel like I somehow owe this fanbase a little something because of the harshness with my pre-season picks. Let me start off with this: I was wrong. Very wrong.

But. Let’s talk about why I was wrong.

No, I’m not trying to justify my pick of Real Salt Lake being dead last with barely 30 points to their name. Again, I totally own that I was wrong about this team. But what I got wrong was a cause of a focus on the things they did less good rather than the potential for what they could well. The sometimes rickety offense versus the ardent and staunch defense that it would be.

On the face of it, Sam Johnson and Everton Luiz were both unknowns, the pressing system which looked promising in parts of the 2017 season had faded in 2018 and the once exciting group of young players (Justen Glad, Corey Baird, Sebastian Saucedo, Brooks Lennon and Aaron Herrera) all seemed to stagnate in growth. 

Then somewhere in the first half of the season they, someone--Petke or other---altered a bit of the tactics and retailored their classic 4-2-3-1 to become a more compact. less aggressive, and an altogether different defensive look. It allowed fewer shots of low leverage xG through a structured back six which focused more on primarily being difficult to break down, preventing quick transitions into the attack, and limiting looks at the goal. This specifically had a great effect and lead them over their last 18 games to grabbing 33 points (1.83 ppg) with a +11 goal differential.

I’m still not convinced that this is a team that’s going to be able to throw up another 50 points next year without a change or an upgrade in their attacking front. I get tired of preaching Joao Plata but there is an absolute need for someone, anyone, in the front of that attack to take regular chances at goal. This leads to some attack sustainability issues. But we’ll get to that later.

The thing I find stunning about this run in the second half is that it has happened in the midst of some serious off the field turmoil. Their head coach being put on unpaid leave, then fired and followed up by him then suing the organization for wrongful termination. An ordeal that then leaked conversations with, then GM, which lead to the dismissal of the team’s GM.

All of this happened and yet the team remained focused and executed a very precise game plan over the second half driving them up to an unbelievable third place finish. 

TEAM STATISTICS

Possession: 50.1% (10th in MLS)
Passes Per Game: 440.2 (15th in MLS)
xGoals For in open play: 25.2 (21st in MLS)
xGoals Against in open play:27.1  (3rd in MLS)

It’s probably no surprise that Kyle Beckerman is still performing, what is surprising is how well he’s doing it despite being kind of an afterthought--or perhaps, maybe even just being taken for granted after all these years. This is his ninth straight season with over 2,000 minutes at the heart of the RSL midfield and he’s still the guy with the ball at his feet the most.

Beckerman lead the team (min. 1,000 minutes) in touch% (11.8%) once more this year. Hardly a surprise as Beckerman has posted double digit touch percentage and has been one of the central figures for the transition of the RSL attack as long as we’ve kept records. Beckerman’s numbers are a bit down but his passing score remains north of positive and has been an effective distributor for RSL this season.

The real stand out for RSL shot creation came through Albert Rusnak who's xPassing score in the final third ranks 10th in MLS (+21.7) and his xBuildup leads the team with 16.00. While Beckerman consistently helped drive possession when needed it was Rusnak who became the true architect of chance creation within the final third.

FORMATION

WHY REAL SALT LAKE WON’T MAKE THE MLS CUP FINAL:

hey just don’t have enough firepower.

This isn’t necessarily about talent. We saw last season, and on full display against LAFC in the knockout round, how their attack could strike ruthlessly. Last season they threw up 55 total goals in 2018 which is more than most other Western Conference playoff teams this year aside from the ones featuring Vela or Zlatan.

A good example of said attacking issues lies with their star Rusnak. He produced another 10 goal season and now has back-to-back ten goal seasons for RSL. But only 11 of those 20 come from open play (and from open play he only has 8.3 xG). It’s significantly different perspective and it’s a bit easier to understand that while this team can create goals, they have a tendency to struggle due to their tactical approach.

This is a team that wants to catch you on the break and move in quick transition, but if forced to break you down they simply doesn’t have the skillset to do it. Even Damir Kreilach, the playoff star for RSL last year, has only 14 open play goals in the last two regular seasons with all of 10.6 xG combined from the last two campaigns. Kreilach, the team leader in xG, with 5.8 is ranked 60th in all of MLS. Second? that’s Sam Johnson, finishing second on the team in xG with only 5.5 from open play but an interesting 0.38 per 96. He’s ranked 71st in MLS. Jefferson Savarino, who continues to have some dazzling moments, only came up with 5.2 xG this season.

They have the talent but the balance of their tactics dictates a more compact and defensive approach limiting opportunities and putting the bulk of the work on guys like Kreilach, Johnson, and even Savarino providing minimal windows to attack in primarily low leverage situations.

If their opponents score, and considering the Western Conference playoff pool keeping a clean sheet is going to be incredibly difficult to manage, I’m not sure this is a team that can summon a multi-goal game for a win. 

WHY REAL SALT LAKE WILL MAKE THE MLS CUP FINAL:

The reason they are here, or even have a shot of making it to the final, is because they’ve become possibly the best and most tactically keen defensive unit in MLS. There are few defenses that can compare and few attacks which can break this defense down.

Over the second half of the season they have seen a few setbacks but their large body of work also shows themselves to be an absolute beast of a defensive unit. Their commitment and organization yields a “bend but not nearly enough to break” approach.

Their expected goals against per shot is the sixth (0.09) lowest in Major League Soccer, have the second-fewest amount of big leverage moments (18)--that is to say open play shots of greater than 0.25 probability---trailing only LAFC and their attacking third against passing score is the second-lowest in all of MLS (-50.4).

This isn’t a team that is going to jump off the sheet with defensive actions. Neither Justen Glad nor Nedum Onuoha have stats that will make you think they’re amazing. Even Nick Rimando, by his own illustrious career standards, has pretty pedestrian numbers. But they don’t allow high leverage shots and to that end they don’t allow goals. This is possibly the hardest team to break down in the Western Conference and maybe all of Major League Soccer. If they get to MLS Cup it’s going to be on the back of their defense.