Where Goals Come From: Training for Progressive Pass Finishing

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Where Goals Come From: Training for Progressive Pass Finishing

This is the seventh article in a series of articles and videos in the Where Goals Come From project from Jamon Moore and Carl Carpenter.

Now that we have inundated you with progressive passing data, videos, and presentations, now comes the time where I provide examples of how to create these types of opportunities in matches by applying these attacking principles to training. This is the part which is the most important to me personally: it’s easy for us to theorize and analyze what successful teams do well and identify these as the top levels of the game, however, the goal (no pun intended) of the Where Goals Come From project is ultimately to impact clubs and coaches to incorporate this framework into their strategy and game models.

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State of MLS Analytics: March 2021

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State of MLS Analytics: March 2021

This is an update to last Summer’s article on the state of analytics at MLS clubs. The last few months have been a big one for MLS analytics signings. Harvard’s Laurie Shaw was hired by City Football Group, former Opta and SportLogiq employee Sam Gregory took his talents to Ft. Lauderdale, Cory Jez transferred from the Utah Jazz to Austin FC, Nikos Overheul moved to Vancouver after working for StatsBomb and Smartodds, and American Soccer Analysis’ own Sam Goldberg and Kevin Minkus were hired by New York Red Bulls and the Chicago Fire, respectively. Given this, teams are polarizing into the haves and have nots. In this update I’ve dropped the Tier 1.5 “Definitely Know What xG Is“ as teams in that tier moved up.

Last year, Kevin Minkus wrote Soccer Analytics 101 over at MLSsoccer.com where he defined analytics as “using data and statistics to better understand something.” For the purposes of deciding what MLS teams have an analytics staff member the “something” is player recruitment and tactical analysis. I’m talking about using numbers and mathematical models (e.g. xG, xA, g+) to help evaluate transfer targets and team and player performance.

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Rolling out USL and NASL data in the web application

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Rolling out USL and NASL data in the web application

In an effort to continue to bring you the best American soccer analysis, we have added three new leagues to the web application: USL Championship (2017 - ), USL League One (2019 - ), and the now-defunct NASL (2016 – 17). These new leagues join MLS and the NWSL in our app, representing more than 4,000 players across nearly 6,000 games. In the app, you can select which league you want to view in the upper right, and then navigate through the tabs to explore shooting, passing, and goals added (g+) statistics for players and teams.

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Where Goals Come From: Putting Balls into the Box

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Where Goals Come From: Putting Balls into the Box

This is the fifth article in a series of articles and videos in the Where Goals Come From project from Jamon Moore and Carl Carpenter.

Data providers and analysts have long talked about successful passing “into the box” and shots that come from it, however, until now, we are not aware of a framework for providing context of how to separate “good, better, and best” of these situations other than location as identified by Expected Goals (xG), particularly one that can be used at all levels of a football club. In our estimation, this does not make the information very actionable for players. Expected Goals on their own do not provide a way of telling us the situation that created a shot.

As we are demonstrating in these “Where Goals Come From” articles, situational context matters a great deal. It’s not just the type of pass, but details such as the direction of the pass, the speed of play, the number of defenders between the ball and goal, the height of the pass, the quality of the reception (first touch), the location of the goalkeeper, and much more.

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Where Goals Come From: How The Best Teams in MLS Pass

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Where Goals Come From: How The Best Teams in MLS Pass

This is the fifth article in a series of articles and videos in the Where Goals Come From project from Jamon Moore and Carl Carpenter.

By now, readers of the Where Goals Come From project will be very in tune with the benefits of progressive passing in soccer, both from a data and tactical perspective. Within these last few weeks you’ve probably noticed a trend about the scope of progressive passing and its effectiveness throughout all levels of men’s and women’s football, furthering its importance within the game as a means of scoring goals (you know...where goals come from).

However, as American Soccer Analysis, we would be remiss to not put one specific league under the microscope and take a deeper look: in this case, Major League Soccer. In doing so, I’m going to look at the various tactical schemes the “defining” teams of the past three seasons in MLS have used to find success. These teams are:

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Where Goals Come From: Passing in the Final Third

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Where Goals Come From: Passing in the Final Third

This is the fourth article in a series of articles and videos in the Where Goals Come From project from Jamon Moore and Carl Carpenter.

In case you missed it

A companion article to this one

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Where Goals Come From: The Five Progressive Passes

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Where Goals Come From: The Five Progressive Passes

This is the third article in a series of articles and videos in the Where Goals Come From project from Jamon Moore and Carl Carpenter.

Parts one and two:

A companion article to this one:

In part one, we showed how teams that score more goals per game and per season use progressive passes to set up shots that are more likely to be scored than other types of shots, regardless of league or level in the professional game. Teams that concede fewer goals over time generally start by conceding fewer goals created from progressive passes. To maximize goal differential, clubs should focus on areas that have the biggest impacts.

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Where Goals Come From: Tactical Progressive Passing Movements

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Where Goals Come From: Tactical Progressive Passing Movements

This is the second article in a series of articles and videos in the Where Goals Come From project from Jamon Moore and Carl Carpenter. Read part one on Where Goals Come From.

Scoring goals in soccer is hard. Broadly speaking, in the elite European leagues, most matches have no more than three goals per game. This scarcity in goal scoring is the reason why metrics such as Expected Goals (xG) have gained such a foothold amongst the analytics (and increasingly the general) community: anything to gauge the value of a team’s chance creation is gold dust.

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Where Goals Come From

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Where Goals Come From

This is the first article in a series of articles and videos from the Where Goals Come From project from Jamon Moore and Carl Carpenter.

Regardless of philosophy, style, principles, and game model, a club’s on-field strategy should focus on maximizing goals scored and minimizing goals conceded. Goals win points, points are how clubs reach their objectives, and clubs that reach their objectives win fans and make money. The “Where Goals Come From” project is about how to create goals (or prevent them). By breaking soccer down to basics, we aim to provide clubs a clear roadmap to success.

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MVP, Positions, and the Problem with Usage in Soccer

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MVP, Positions, and the Problem with Usage in Soccer

Way back in May, American Soccer Analysis broke out our fancy new model, Goals Added, as a way to help us evaluate what is actually going on during the innards of a possession that drives chance creation. As John Muller so aptly put it, “Thanks to expected goals, we’ve gotten good at valuing shots, but shots won’t tell you much about the ninety-plus-minute scramble that produces just 26 total chances over the course of your average MLS game and maybe three goals if you’re lucky. Shots make up about three seconds of action for every four minutes of soccer. Grading the sport on that alone is like assigning GPA based on how well students walk across the graduation stage.” Goals Added gave us the chance to see how much the water carriers and the ball winners and the zone movers actually impact things, beyond just looking at your fancy DP strikers.

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