Where Goals Come From: Tactical Progressive Passing Movements
/This is the second article in a series of articles and videos in the Where Goals Come From project from Jamon Moore and Carl Carpenter. Read part one on Where Goals Come From.
Scoring goals in soccer is hard. Broadly speaking, in the elite European leagues, most matches have no more than three goals per game. This scarcity in goal scoring is the reason why metrics such as Expected Goals (xG) have gained such a foothold amongst the analytics (and increasingly the general) community: anything to gauge the value of a team’s chance creation is gold dust.
From a tactical point of view, most objective based studies regarding chance creation focus on which areas of the pitch are the most important in this sense (such as the great amount of work done on Zone 14, and which areas surrounding the penalty area are ideal). The type of pass made in these is purely a consequence of the action - the variability/type of passing to create opportunities is very rarely the driving force.
Working on this project we have found some incredibly important evidence. Through “bucketing” pass types, and more specifically key pass types, we have found that progressive passes are the most important set of passes in the modern game in order to be a consistent and dangerous threat - it doesn’t matter your playing style, the perceived strength of your team/league, or age bracket of player.
As MLS writer and analyst Matt Doyle recently put it:
“The mark of a good team is the ability to create repeatable, high-level chances based upon well-drilled and purposeful movement of the ball, and of the players off the ball.”
Progressive passes do just that.
How this fits into the “Where Goals Come From” project
This project seeks to coalesce the objective-based evidence in data about how goals are scored and a framework for describing them with recommendations on how a team can exploit these findings on the pitch.
While Jamon’s framework describing goals will explain the processes which led us to adapt a model to support our hypotheses in this area with evidence, my goal is to explain from a tactical and technical perspective how these passes look in a match and then describe how clubs can implement a practice and game model improve in these areas -- in effect, literally putting the theory into practice.
Looking at the data we have put together for this project is one thing, but without seeing it all visually, it’s impossible for coaches and players to make these recommendations actionable.
Generating Forward Passing Lanes - The “Routes” of Progressive Passes
To steal words more words from smart people in the game, this time from Pablo Peña, my coworker and friend at Statsbomb, “Creating an advantage implies a manipulation of the opponent defensive system through individual or group actions (in this case understood as disorganising or unbalancing), to then exploit the provoked conditions in order to progress and create chances through another actions (i.e. passing, running into space, dribbling, shooting).”
How can these individual and collective actions occur on the pitch?
In the image above, the highlighted players from the attacking team are well positioned in between the opposition’s lines (lines are basically the units/groups teams use - defenders (aka a back four or three), midfield, etc.) Despite this, the horizontal spacing of the defensive blocks (another term for how team’s defend within their lines), as well as the staggering of these lines, makes it unlikely to consistently find attackers. Given this, how does a team create these forward passing routes (i.e. routes of progressive attacking play)?
There are mechanisms required of both players in possession of the ball and those who are the receivers of passes. A common set of questions should be addressable by the movements we’ll describe here:
Can I create gaps to play through? (spread the opposition horizontally?)
Can I create gaps in behind? (spread the opposition vertically?)
Can I force the opposition to be narrow or spread in areas where they don’t want to be?
The situation will dictate the answers and various movements described here can help the attack progress for any question where the answer is “yes”.
Off-the-ball movement and structures for progression
Collective Movements
From a structural perspective, when a team has the ball, they want to create width and stretch the opponents as far apart as possible. When a team is out of possession, the opposite is true: the goal is to compress the opposing team as much as possible. As a natural consequence of how teams defend, the vertical/diagonal routes (passing lanes) in which to play these progressive passes is made more difficult. As is often said in soccer: “the run dictates the pass”: Without any options for the player in possession of the ball to find, it’s simply impossible to create a progressive pass. Because of this, the movements ahead of the ball are imperative to progress in the attack.
At the very basic level, positioning is of the utmost importance: passing angles are widened, and “defensive access” (the ability to defend and get near to the player and ball) is decreased. This positioning throughout the team can manifest itself in two major ways: spacing and staggering.
Spacing of players in between lines (seen above) forces the opponents to stretch in areas of the pitch which are advantageous for progressive passes. This is a constant regardless of formation and style of play: position attacks to create spaces in wide areas (overloading centrally) or in central areas (overloading one side to attack down the other).
Staggering (seen above) creates passing lanes “against the grain” of defensive structures: 1) diagonal passes between opposition defenders are created, 2) players can play in one touch (completely vertical passes are tough to complete), and 3) pressing players can be bypassed as a result, shown below.
Regardless of if progressive passes are diagonal or vertical, they move the ball closer to goal, but it must be stressed that clever horizontal ball movement to move defensive blocks is necessary prior to these actions.
It is a common trope that teams in the build up phase in midfield must avoid the dreaded “U-shape” - horizontal ball movement between players which doesn’t penetrate, or ball movement which is slow and pedantic. Still, moving the ball laterally is necessary, it just needs to be at the right pace and situations.
Some basics of this:
Skipping players to speed up ball progression (making it harder for blocks to compress space and line breaking passes)
Utilizing players to “relay” possession quickly from one side to another (not allowing for the ball to be stuck on one side of the pitch.
Taking as much space as possible when play is moved horizontally to force the issue (and doing so, if possible, in one touch).
This is obviously not an exhaustive list -- and much of it will vary with a team’s style and objectives in the build up phase -- but it’s to break down opponents without some horizontal ball control. Once these conditions of play are met, players can use collective actions to play progressively.
Lay-off passes
Lay-off passes can help solve an issue mentioned previously: how can players facing their own goal help progression? By quickly passing to another player facing the opponent’s goal. This requires movement underneath and an understanding of what options are available from those off the ball.
These types of progressive passes can also help access players who are marked in the first phase of play, as shown below. Once the player on the ball regains possession, they may be more open to complete a dangerous progressive pass.
Up, Back, and Through passes
As shown below, the “up, back, and through” combination is essentially an extension of the lay-off, using a third man to help progress the ball after the player facing upwards is found. While the example shown from Leeds United is not a progressive pass in our definition (as it is played within the team’s own third), this combination is one of the best ways in which to break lines or slip players closer to goal.
If done well, the first pass (finding the player facing backwards) can break one line, while the forward pass breaks another. It’s typically more effective if these passes are “one touch” as that typically gives the defense less time to adjust to the movement in behind.
Rotations
As the name would suggest, rotations are when two or more players exchange positions in order to move opponents or move away from opponents. Players can exchange positions ahead of play (i.e. between lines), or drop deeper to provide superiority of numbers. These rotations add free men or open up passing lanes - two things that are important for progressive passing.
Individual movements
Of course, staggering and spacing aren’t possible without the movements of individual players to allow these collective structures to get into place. Attacking football is all about manipulating opponents and creating advantages.
Many of the movements players will make naturally find ways to be free to receive a pass. In “coach speak” this is known as dismarking - watch Marcelo Bielsa’s teams play for five minutes, and you’ll see all these movements manifest themselves repeatedly.
Blind-Side Runs
These movements from attacking players are those which take advantage of defender’s tendency to ball watch. By running off the back shoulder when their body shape is oriented away from them, players can gain huge advantages and receive free of pressure. If done well, even if the opponent does recover, the split second gained can be enough to progress the ball into dangerous spaces.
Double Movements
Double movements are commonplace in every area of the pitch, but are most closely associated with creating space in the penalty area. By moving twice (or more!) with short, sharp runs, players can confuse defenders with false intentions about where they want to gain possession. For example, a center forward looking for a cutback might fake a movement away towards the back post, but quickly attack the near post, earning a split second in which to shoot.
Keep an eye on the movement of the Salzburg player in red who begins the gif at the top of the 18 at the edge of the PK arc.
Third-man Runs
Best used as a means to attack and create depth beyond an opponent’s defensive lines, third-man runs (like other space-creating actions) exploit the defense’s ball-oriented focus. While two players combine in the initial phase, the aforementioned “third man” hits the space in behind or in areas of the pitch which support progressive passes, with the intent to gain possession without a defensive mark.
Third-man runs exploit the limits of a defender’s capacity to process multiple actions at once. Adding another player to combinations of play increases confusion. As shown from the example below, third-man runs are priceless to access areas behind and/or between lines.
There is a collective nature to allow these individual actions to be effective, such as players supporting the pass and movement. For example, a pass between lines is unlikely to unlock the entire defense. The opponent will have their own reaction to the situation, such as preventing the attacking player from receiving in space or on the half-turn.
Because of this, teammates must be moving purposefully in support of -- and not detracting from -- the off-the-ball movements from players intending to receive the next pass. One such example is the aforementioned “up, back, and through.”
On-the-ball movement and structures for progression
At the risk of overstating the obvious, the focus of the defensive phase is typically to limit the opponent’s ability to progress the ball closer to goal. There will be occasions when off-the-ball movements from supporting players won’t be sufficient to create a situation for a progressive pass. Sometimes the player in possession will have to make the dominoes fall and force the issue.
Dribbling Into Space
When all options forward are cut off, midfielders or center backs may have to force the issue and collapse opponents on top of them. This is consistent with all types of marking systems in midfield, both zonal and man-to-man. By driving forward and making opponents close them down, this will naturally increase the space for teammates to receive the ball in other pockets and change the angles to pass.
Variability In Passing Angles and Use of Deception
If the player on the ball plays a pass which is predictable and “ahead” of play, it will be simple to pick it off and disrupt the attack. That’s why it’s crucial to change angles of attacking play from players off the ball.
This applies to the ball carrier, too. Utilizing passes against the grain through false intentions and diagonal balls through lines are all tools which can get progressive balls to attackers, even if those attackers are static.
Pass Selection
Pass selection is a situational action from the player on the ball, so difficult to demonstrate. One consideration is this: which pass will provide the team with the best platform to move into the next phase? Is it the furthest pass forward? Does it have the most supporting players and/or possibilities to progress from there? Does it provide the player on the ball with plenty of time?
The situation may yield more questions, and, without getting even deeper in the weeds, the positioning of the player with the ball (less so the role they are playing) can be a key factor.
Conclusion
These movements are fundamental and critical to successful progressive passing anywhere on the pitch. They become even more important when the ball is in the final third. In my next article, we will look at how these movements on and off the ball can help set up a variety of finishes in the final third, while Jamon covers the theory and data side of progressive key passes.
Looking beyond that, we will discuss how to coordinate all these movements and finishes and create a style and game model that is built on the practice pitch. Revisiting Matt Doyle’s quote at the top of this article, we want to become elite at creating repeatable, high-level chances based upon the well-drilled and purposeful movement of the ball, and of our players off the ball.
Key points:
A key thought for the players off the ball should be, where is space and how can I position myself best to make the most of it?
Players on the ball can facilitate and manipulate the opposition is required to increase effectiveness of their passes
Individual and collective movements need to be used in conjunction to generate progressive passes
Progressive passes move the ball forward, but you need to be flexible and show a variability to move the ball side to side in order to find these passes.
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About Carlon Carpenter
Carlon is the current Tactical & Video Analyst for StatsBomb, one of the largest soccer data companies in Europe. Carlon also works as a contract employee for the U.S. Soccer youth national teams, working as a performance analyst for the U-17 men’s national team. Carlon can be contacted through his LinkedIn account, or via Twitter.
About Jamon Moore
Jamon is a twenty-five-year professional in the high-technology industry who started as a software developer and is now in executive management overseeing business agility transformations with a specialization in high-technology. In addition to his analysis for ASA, he is a credentialed media member covering the San Jose Earthquakes. Jamon can be contacted via Twitter, and club analysts and executives can connect with Jamon on LinkedIn.