Where Goals Come From: Passing in the Final Third
/This is the fourth article in a series of articles and videos in the Where Goals Come From project from Jamon Moore and Carl Carpenter.
In case you missed it
Where Goals Come From - Jamon Moore and Carl Carpenter
Where Goals Come From: Tactical Progressive Passing Movements - Carl Carpenter
A companion article to this one
Where Goals Come From: The Five Progressive Passes - Jamon Moore
In my previous article, we shared how to create opportunities for progressive passes via on-the-ball actions and off-the-ball movements. Now we’ll focus on how to create goals in the Progressive Pass category via key passes.
Jamon’s accompanying article focuses on the data evidence of why we believe these key passes are critical to a well-functioning attack.
This article will look at how these passes are used in a game situation. Again, the movements discussed in the previous tactical article are crucial to execution in the final third area and setting up a progressive pass on either the key pass or the secondary key pass that makes the key pass even simpler.
Creating Chances
As our first article in this series described, there are various types of progressive passes within our definition. Our definition of progressive passes at American Soccer Analysis is a bit different than other variations on the theme: all are in the attacking 60% of the pitch and must travel 25% closer to the goal. Some of these progressive passes are used ahead of a key pass, but some are very specifically used to create a high-quality shot.
In fact it is a principle of many teams to allow “dangerous” passes against them in certain areas of the pitch, just as long as they don’t enter the penalty area to lead to shots. One perfect test case of such a team is Cadiz in La Liga: they are one of the lowest teams in Spain in regards to pressing, counterpressing (their opponents also average the highest possession % against), and the average length of their defensive lines.
Cadiz’ sole defensive focus is on not allowing opponents to get into advantageous positions in front of goal and create chances with a high conversion rate. As our research shows, other than penalty kicks, high conversion rates happen through some form of progressive pass. A lot of penalties happen due to the scramble following a dangerous progressive pass as well.
As the space allowed by the defense constricts, the mechanisms to create progressive passes that can create a high-value chance are different.
We will focus in this article on three specific types of progressive key passes: Cutbacks, Crosses, and Through balls.
The Setup to a Progressive Key Pass
In the common key pass examples above, notice most of the key passes are off-center (i.e. on the diagonal). My previous article on movements that create progressive pass opportunities illustrate this principle as well. The passes with angles are simply more difficult to defend than most square passes and vertical passes.
Practically speaking, the initial pass to prepare for progressive attacking generally occurs from out-to-in -- essentially attacking wide with the intention of breaking past defensive lines here first.
Raheem Sterling, in the clip above, receiving the ball on the touchline - facing inwards, providing him multiple angles in which to play.
There are a number of benefits to these wide preparatory passes
Players receiving the ball out wide will be facing inwards, allowing them to be at the optimal body shape to find players creating depth in behind, or attack on the dribble themselves.
Wide attacking creates overloads in these areas, which in turn, allow teams to then switch play quickly and isolate players centrally (see video below).
Another thing we have found is that the average goal for each of these key pass types is about two yards closer to the net than the average miss. That could be an indicator that teams should adjust the ideal target location of some passes. More research is needed to confirm if this will yield better results or exists as more of a survivorship bias, but it is interesting nonetheless.
Mechanisms to Finish the Chance
Crosses
Jamon’s companion article touches on this -- and we’ll be elaborating more on this in the near future -- but the more effective crosses are not the ones soccer-watchers typically think of. Rather than hopeful balls from the extreme width of the pitch, crosses, when thought of progressively, are more successful when taken from areas just outside or just inside the box.
These passes can either be “dinked” in-swingers, or “cut back” (whether they fit the definition Jamon provided of a Cutback or not) looking to find an attacker’s head or foot. Any cross put into the air should have an effect on the opponent’s defensive line, so that it can exploit the narrowest of gaps between defenders and find players free of marking.
Passes around the ground do not have this effect, as the height and angle of them are more favorable. Beneficiaries of these crosses can be the center forward, midfielders attacking from deep, or the winger on the weak side attacking the blind side. Because of the nature of the finish to these progressive crosses (i.e., a header most likely), to increase the scoring probability of the chance, these balls should try to pick out specific players in the box rather than hitting areas for players to attack.
Another variation of these crosses are ones from closer to the edge of the top of the box, rather than “deeper.” These progressive crosses, especially when hit first-time, can be incredibly dangerous.
Any sort of negative pass away from goal is a chance for the defensive lines to step up and gain yards. An initial pass backwards from a winger to a supporting full back or midfielder underneath for service into the box can provide attacking players with huge advantages: forward momentum, space created in behind, as well as the ball-centric nature of defenders to turn their bodies away from the far post. These “early” crosses are quite evident on the right side of our Manchester City visualization above.
Cutbacks
These are the stereotypical “Man City goal.” Since Guardiola took over in 2017, Manchester City have created and scored tons of chances from passes cutback from the width of the penalty area, on the ground, to attackers within the width of the goal.
As one would expect these areas are hard to access and require depth in attack behind the defensive lines to make these progressive passes actionable. While 1v1s in wide positions can create such dynamics, isolating one player does not have as dramatic an effect on the functionality of the entire defensive unit to create cutbacks consistently. Creating numerical superiority and the creation of free men does this more often.
The most frequent secondary key pass to a cutback is another progressive pass.
Overlapping runs from the full back in behind are the most typical way to create 2v1s in wide areas. By having an extra body joining the attack it “freezes” the opposition defender which has multiple benefits.
Allowing time for the man on the ball to get his head up and pass or dribble.
The full back receiving the ball behind the defensive line, created by the timing of the pass and the timing speed of the run from the full back so that it can’t be easily intercepted or blocked.
The Manchester City goal above is more like a “crossback” (combination cutback and cross). We just made that term up. Catchy, huh?
Note: Our strict definition of a cutback for this project’s categorization requires the start of the pass to be between the 6- and 18-yard boxes and end up somewhere in front of the 6-yard box up to the end of the top of the 18. Many analysts may want to use a more loose definition.
Attacking space between the “seams” (the gaps between center back and full back) can also be referred to as the underlapping run. When attacking the final line of defense, these spaces between defenders are often the greatest at any given time, especially when the attacking team has players on the touchline to occupy and drag them out of position. Whether it’s a full back hitting this space, or a midfield occupying it with a late run, it can be hugely beneficial for creating depth in behind. Looking back at Manchester City, Kevin De Bruyne makes these runs repeatedly.
When it comes to the actual final ball, it must be a driven ball on the ground, and one that can be finished with one touch. Defenses will drop deep on top of the goal, so these are important points to make as time is of the essence in these moments. The prime “finishing location” is right on the edge of the six-yard box and in the width of the goal - this makes the job of the man applying the finish as easy as possible.
Through Balls
Through balls are the most difficult of all chance-creating progressive passes, and the one which requires the most manipulation of the entire defensive structure rather than breaking down and finding flaws in one or two players. A prerequisite of these through balls was a focal point in which to use as a reference point, and one which forces the opposition to adjust. This reference point can be a cluster of attacking player, or an individual.
When it comes from a unit of play, it’s often from the overloading of players in a certain area to open through balls in another. Manchester City are experts are creating overloads in the wide areas, using a relay or outlet player to quickly move play to the other side, and slip players in behind. Committing numbers to one side naturally makes the defensive shift over to compensate (or else they would be bypassed simply).
A perfect example of a finely executed through ball against and compact defense in the final third.
By having proper spacing through the creation of triangles, proper spacing, etc. the ball can be quickly moved across to areas of less concentration - more space means more efficient progressive passing. Weak-sided fullbacks, midfielders, and wingers are often the recipients of these through balls. By creating width initially and then making a run from out-to-in, the through ball can be played diagonally even if the directly vertical option is not in play.
When it comes to individual creation of through balls, the furthest player forward (usually the #9) is the reference point. Through negative movements away from the goal, the player receiving the said pass can drag defensive players away from their safety net within lines. These spaces created behind allow for through balls, such as passes on the ground, clipped balls over the top, or diagonal switches across the pitch in behind. As I’ve harped on constantly, these combinations are not possible without supporting movements.
Conclusion
Explaining what these progressive passes look like in theory for a team statistically and analytically (Jamon’s article) and then what they look like in-game (this article) is the easy job. For this study of pass types to have any true merit long term, there needs to be a proper insight into applying them and coaching them into players.
If these progressive passes were simple to create, goals would fly in at an alarming rate, and soccer would turn into *insert high-scoring American sport here.*
While I do not profess to be a coaching-prodigy, my next article in this project will be even more tactics-coaching based. Progressive passes in the attack work at all levels of the game, so the sessions will be applicable to youth and more senior players. Of course, it won’t be exhaustive, but I think it will be a great springboard for inspiring debate about methodology within attacking play and tailoring one’s game model towards creating progressive passing opportunities more consistently!
Key points:
Movements to create depth in the final are necessary to provide opportunities for progressive passes.
Positioning and body shape of players must create the most options on the ball in which to connect with teammates.
Starting positions of attacks in the final third aren’t necessarily the areas where progression will be made - Force opponents into specific areas with the end goal of attacking the areas they vacate.
The delivery of the final ball must be quick and purposeful, but not rushed. Risk taking in these areas of the field is part and parcel of the game, but don’t be wasteful!
About Carlon Carpenter
Carlon is the current Tactical & Video Analyst for StatsBomb, one of the largest soccer data companies in Europe. Carlon also works as a contract employee for the U.S. Soccer youth national teams, working as a performance analyst for the U-17 men’s national team. Carlon can be contacted through his LinkedIn account or via Twitter.
About Jamon Moore
Jamon is a twenty-five-year professional in the high-technology industry who started as a software developer and is now in executive management overseeing business agility transformations with a specialization in high-technology. In addition to his analysis for American Soccer Analysis, he is a credentialed media member covering the San Jose Earthquakes. Jamon can be contacted through his LinkedIn account or via Twitter.