2025 MLS Season Previews: Real Salt Lake, Cincinnati, Columbus
/Salt Lake Peak?
The first half of RSL’s season was filled with (mostly) surprises and fun. While we’ve waited for Salt Lake’s young core to step forward it finally started to blossom and with Chicho Arango and Andrés Gómez both looking like potential MLS MVP’s the team looked poised to potentially play host to a home playoff series and become a true Cupset threat in the West with an almost 3-month unbeaten stretch.
Unfortunately the Second half had other ideas. Gómez was transferred out for a club record fee. This happened on the back of losing 4 out of 6 games and going into a disappointing League’s Cup. Arango despite creating 0.64 xG per 96 in the first half dropped to 0.37 and only scored one goal in MLS after July 1st and the last eight weeks of the season their team xGF went from fifth to 19th and their xGD went from sixth to 11th.
Their first round opponent, Minnesota, unfortunately matched-up very well against them and ended the season on a bit of a hot streak themselves. Mistakes and the inability to create goals would be the knife in the coffin for RSL as they couldn’t put Minnesota away in either game and lost each to penalties, including an incredible Dayne St. Clair Vince Carter “it’s over”.
Overhauling the attack
Losing in the playoffs the way they did and the complete and sudden downturn of Arango in the second half saw Salt Lake make some very tough decisions. Chicho Arango was traded to San Jose, they flipped Julio Anderson to Dallas for needed depth in Sam Junqua. Depth attackers Benji Michel and Rubio Rubin were also allowed to leave, as was Matty Crooks.
All told the Claret and Cobalt lost about 6,250 minutes from a very good attack, about two and a half starting attackers, and what they’ve supplemented as of right now is, maybe a bit underwhelming, but still interesting.
Likewise Forster Ajago show cased similar interesting goal scoring skillset but the stats are much less supportive albeit in a very small sample size.
Ariath Piol only 20 and on a U22 deal from Australia but he may still be a bit raw. That said, a lot of people are very excited about him and his growth potential.
Lastly we have Tyler Wolf who… is, yes, the son of Josh Wolf former Austin FC head coach. Really there isn’t much to say about him. His time with Atlanta wasn’t great and he’s likely a depth piece at this point.
The team also added Elias Manoel, who has allegedly not reported to training camp and will be moved. Suffice to say the team has collected some potential but not very many sure things. This “haul” still feels a touch underwhelming and while they might be able to make it all up in the aggregate I wouldn’t be surprised to hear they end up making a move for another goal scoring number nine while the window is still open or even identify someone for a mid-season transfer.
The good news is they still have designated player Diogo Gonçalves at the “10”, who they acquired last August from Denmark for a $3 million dollar fee. Additionally, they also have Dominik Marczuk who also came over in mid-season last year and will be expected to hold down the Right Wing spot vacated by Gomez. Neither of these guys were great last year, and RSL will need them to be to have home field advantage in the playoffs again.
The Now: Diego Luna
Luna is beloved among the RSL fan base and it makes a lot of sense. The guy is by all accounts a great human being to be around. He’s also just 21 and about to be one of the, if not the, most important figures on this team trying once more to put up 55+ points. Luna’s 2024 season is an interesting one because while his numbers were good on the face of it, when we dive a bit deeper we have a clear delineation of before being excluded from the U20 World Cup and then after that moment. Essentially he’s -0.04/96 g+ before and then after he’s 0.05/96 g+.
While those values are not anything great or recognizably very good (Andrés Gómez, circa 2003 was only 0.04), g+ doesn’t necessarily value him in the same way as most other wingers, mostly because he doesn’t perform or tactically act like most wingers. Luna is much more winger coming central as attacking midfielder to knit things together than he is winger becomes wide forward. And if there’s one thing g+ loves it’s players who abandon their position to go be a striker, and Luna is not that.
All that said, with the change in personnel as mentioned previously, there is an expectation and need to increase his production. While 16 goals and assists is a great season, for RSL to reach their goal of contending for an MLS Cup, they need him to take another big step forward. He has to be the guy.
Just need an average keeper
While RSL were an excellent defensive team in 2024, their goalkeeping let them down in the playoffs (and truthfully was a problem all season). Zac MacMath surrendered 5 more goals than expected as the keeper. He ranked 18th best in G-xG among MLS keepers with 1,500 minutes. But was only 24th in shots faced. Realistically RSL did a solid job in preventing opportunities, unfortunately for Mac he’s now injured and it could be a bit of a crawl back for him to prove last season was just a blip.
In the interim Gavin Beavers who, at only 19, has been an exciting prospect and the heir apparent was transferred to Brøndby IF (another member of the club’s ownership group). The team drafted two keepers via the MLS Superdraft to include Max Kerkvliet (from UCONN–can only imagine Matt Doyle is proud) in the first round but neither were likely to be up to the job just yet. Kurt Schmidt signed Keeper Rafael Cabral formerly of Santos and winner of the 2011 Copa Libertadores and also traded for Orlando back-up Mason Stajduhar.
At 34 Cabral isn’t the same player he once was even just seven years ago when he left Napoli but he’ll likely get the nod to start first. Last year he was loaned out to Brazil’s Grêmio where he served as an unutilized back-up. We have seen older international goalkeepers struggle in MLS, I’d be surprised if he’s great. But RSL don’t need great. Being able to host in one of the most challenging environments in MLS, Sandy Utah makes RSL formidable, and just having a defense limiting shots and an average keeper could do a lot.
Den-keys to the Shield
FC Cincinnati’s defense of the 2023 Supporters’ Shield started out strong but was derailed by injuries and off-field drama. The season ended on a down-note, with a first round playoff exit to NYCFC, made worse when Lucho Acosta made it clear he no longer wanted to be in Orange and Blue.
Make no mistake, the 2024 iteration of FCC was a good team. Despite a juggled backline, new starters at key positions, and missing key pieces, the Orange and Blue finished with a 11.97 expected goal difference, the third best total in the league according to ASA data.
What looked like an offseason that would focus on improving on the margins and making a big splash at striker in service of winning a MLS Cup in the last few years of Acosta’s prime became something much different. General Manager Chris Albright and the rest of FCC’s front office was faced with a more drastic roster overhaul centered around replacing the team’s central offensive force.
A Solid Defensive Foundation
The good news is FCC returns most of the core pieces of its very good defensive structure from last season. In 2024, the Orange and Blue conceded just 41.17 expected goals against, trailing only the Seattle Sounders’ 39.44.
Though he will not be ready for the beginning of the season, Matt Miazga will return at some point as he recovers from a leg injury suffered last June. Miles Robinson remains a very good MLS centerback (0.06 G+/96). Teenage Hadebe returns to MLS for a full season after a short stint at Konyaspor after seasons in Houston.
Unfortunately for sickos across the world, FCC’s “just get an Argentinian winger and have them cook at wingback” strategy that brought so much success (and fun) over the past few seasons appears to be at an end. New left wingback Lukas Engel offers a different look, one that is likely to more typical of the usual vision of the position. On the other flank, DeAndre Yedlin should continue to be solid if unspectacular.
Roman Celentano is a fine option in goal - not an elite shotstopper by any stretch of the imagination but certainly good enough to be between the sticks on a very good team pushing for silverware.
Attacking Reinvention
The real work of replacing Acosta’s contributions will come in the final third and Albright moved quickly to secure two very good options to pick up that slack.
Evander is coming off a MVP-caliber 2024 with the Portland Timbers. Even though he ran hot for much of the season, he’s about as good of a replacement for Acosta as you could find in the league. He doesn’t play exactly like Acosta, so there will be an adjustment, both in terms of style and aesthetics, but Evander brings a high floor/high ceiling to the position that might have been considerably riskier if Albright had looked outside the league for a replacement. I’ve got some questions about the defensive translation, but Lucho couldn’t defend when he got to Cincinnati either. Buying on off the ball is going to be huge.
Orellano, one of the dribbliest dribbly bois in the league, will be pushed higher up the field, where his dribbling will be even more valuable and any failed dribbles will not immediately put FCC’s defense under pressure.
Completing the attacking trio is newcomer Kévin Denkey who held the title for highest cost incoming transfer into MLS for about five minutes until Atlanta’s Emmanuel Latte Lath edged ahead. However, Denkey represents a changing player profile attracted by what MLS has to offer. He doesn’t turn 25 until the end of November and his statistical profile at Cercle Brugge is really good.
In Belgium, he demonstrated a knack for getting really high-value shots - and doing it repeatedly. That skill translates and given his age, there could still be improvement coming. There were some concerns about his athleticism that prevented the true big money move somewhere like France, but this is a really productive striker. The ceiling on how good FCC can be in 2025 will largely depend on how quickly Evander, Orellano, and Denkey can develop a rapport in the final third.
Getting The Ball There
Assuming FCC’s attacking trio can strike a harmonious relationship the biggest issue facing the team in 2025 seems to simply be getting the ball to them. Lucho Acosta was and likely remains a ball progression machine - sometimes to the detriment of the team’s overall structure. Per Fbref, Acosta was one of three players in MLS in 2024 who completed more than 200 progressive passes and 100 progressive carries. To be fair, many of those came in the final third but someone in Orange and Blue (likely multiple players) are going to have to pick up that slack.
Evander seems much more comfortable receiving the ball in the final third rather than moving it there himself. Obinna Nwobodo isn’t going to do much. His counterpart in midfield, Pavel Bucha, is likely in line for more on-ball responsibility in build-up. Wingbacks Yedlin and Engel will have to chip in as well, along with passing contributions from the starting centerbacks. Piecing together a ball progression plan in build up might not be the sexiest thing but it’ll be vital for the fun attacking players to be their best and for the Orange and Blue to challenge at the top of the league again.
The Window
It wasn’t the most straightforward offseason in Cincinnati. At the end of it, however, the Orange and Blue have seemingly reset its competitive window while only making a minor tradeoff in the present. This time last year, Acosta and Aaron Boupendza, two players firmly in their primes, were the focal points. In 2025, Evander, Denkey, and Orellano are all under 25. Surely Albright and the rest of the front office would’ve preferred this soft reset to have been a little bit more on their terms but, now that it’s done, FC Cincinnati looks to continue among the top of the Eastern Conference for years to come.
Cuch-go Back to the Start
At their peak in 2024 the Crew played perhaps the most attractive and best soccer in MLS history. However, by the end of the season the Crew ran out of steam and were eliminated by the Red Bulls in the first round of the playoffs. For most teams, making a continental final, winning a cup, setting a club record point total while playing the most attractive attacking soccer in North America would be an incredibly successful season. For the Crew it was a let down. With major departures and no major player signings, Wilfried Nancy will have the opportunity to show that he may be one of the few exceptions to the rule that managers don’t really matter.
Offseason Changes
Cucho is gone. Ramirez is gone. Matan is gone. Yeboah is gone.
Lassi Lappalainen is in.
The new GM, Issa Tall promised that reinforcements are coming, but they haven’t arrived yet. There are currently 23 players on the roster and 5 of them are goalkeepers. At least Sean Zawadzki won’t have to play keeper again this year, probably.
Key Question: Can the Crew replace Aidan Morris?
The obvious question is who is going to score the goals, but I have faith that Wilfried Nancy will figure that out. What I don’t know is who is going to be putting out fires all over the field like Aidan Morris was for the Crew prior to his transfer to Middlesbrough last summer. The Crew’s attacking all the time ethos can often lead to transition opportunities for the opposition when Columbus loses possession. Morris was often able to snuff out opponent’s attacks in these situations. He led the league in tackles in 2023 and had 59 more than the nearest Crew player. Despite only appearing in 16 games in 2024, his 51 tackles trailed only Sean Zawdzki’s 54.
Morris’ tackles came just about everywhere on the defensive two-thirds of the field. Morris didn’t have strong tendencies to tackle in a certain location like Darlington Nagbe. His successor, Sean Zawadzki, also does not show the range and volume of defensive actions as Morris, although his map is complicated by also playing many games at center back, among other positions and missing time due to a cracked rib and punctured lung suffered in the Campeones Cup. Regardless, no one on the roster provides the defensive range that Morris provided.
Columbus’s actual results and underlying numbers peaked right around when Morris departed for England after CCC was over, and right before the start of the League’s Cup where Columbus comfortably cruised to the title. In the back half of the season, the Crew played pretty much league average soccer. Whether that was because they no longer had their fireman in midfield or because they were just worn out from going to too many cup finals, it is hard to say. Regardless, getting someone in that can do what Morris did should be a priority for Issa Tall and the front office.
Key Player: Jacen Russell-Rowe
Canadian Russell-Rowe was originally signed to Crew 2 in 2022 after a couple of largely lackluster seasons at the University of Maryland after Toronto FC was unable to sign him to a TFC2 deal. Player development is mysterious and non-linear, and, for whatever reason, Russell-Rowe came out of the gate in MLS Next Pro absolutely on fire. He scored 11 goals in the first 11 games resulting in a first team deal in the summer. He ended the season with 25 goals, the golden boot, league MVP, and the best g+ season in MLS Next Pro history with 0.29 g+ above average. Since joining the first team, he has mostly been used as a substitute, putting up respectable numbers in limited minutes, scoring 8 goals in all competitions in 2024 including the clincher at Monterrey to send Columbus to the CCC Final.
With Cucho Hernandez and Christian Ramirez sent elsewhere, Russell-Rowe, still only 22, is likely to get a run of games to start the season as the starting striker. While he is not going to be a Cucho-level player, he can certainly show that he is a Ramirez level player. His movement to receive the ball in the box (check those receiving g+ numbers) is special and if he can consistently score for the Crew then it will take pressure off the team to go out and find a new 9.
2025 Prognosis
Despite losing two of their top 3 attackers, the Crew are still going to be a good team to start the season. The roster is filled with proven MLS veterans and Wilfried Nancy has shown that he can succeed without tons of elite talent during his time in Montreal. As is, the roster has a floor as a playoff team but not likely one to compete for the Shield, CCC, or MLS Cup. However, the roster is obviously an unfinished product. The Crew are potentially flush with GAM after obtaining a fee from Real Betis to acquire Cucho’s ITC and sign a new contract with the Spanish side, currently are not using any U-22 spots, and could add up to two DPs. The Crew are also an injury or two away from a center back crisis. Depending on who gets brought in (Flaco Lopez?) and how quickly they integrate with the Crew could be contenders again in 2025. If disaster strikes and Nancy gets poached by a European team in the Summer, then all bets are off.
Season Prediction from my 8 year old son, Rhys: The Crew will not do as well as last season because they lost Cucho and Ramirez. They will make the playoffs but not make MLS Cup.
