Welcome to Lowered Expectations! Here we review some of the weekend’s best open-play shot attempts which did not quite live up to expectations. We break down the GIFs through the lens of our expected goal model and discuss each one evaluating both the results and the process.
Read MoreIt was the worst of times. 2018 is a year that Orlando City fans could forget if it didn’t make up 25% of the team’s MLS existence. No, the dull scab of mediocrity that Orlando had become finally broke sometime in April of last year and the rest of the league was there to season aggressively with rock salt. Jason Kreis was dismissed, and while that was indeed understandable, James O’Connor’s task of righting a sinking ship has now unfortunately shifted into excavating a wreck. In a league that has had no shortage of underachievers in its youth and adolescence, Orlando’s 2018 was a special kind of dark comedy. They stepped on every conceivable rake, went out, purchased several new rakes at great expense, and then stepped on all of those as well.
Read MoreThe 2017 campaign saw Sporting Kansas City bring home silverware in the US Open Cup while simultaneously having a confusing, and ultimately disappointing MLS season. On the back of a rebuilt attacking corps, they're hoping for a return to MLS Cup in 2018.
It is hard to define the 2017 season as a success or failure because SKC was a team that had the league’s best defense but was also paired with an underperforming offense whose top attacker was traded midseason. In addition, Kansas City backed into the playoffs and lost their fourth straight knockout round playoff game, but all in all, they still managed to win a trophy.
Let’s start the 2017 season analysis with the impressive SKC’s defense that led the league with 33.77 xG conceded and 27 goals against (excluding own goals). Looking at the backline, SKC was the only team to allow fewer than one expected goal against per game by limiting their opponents to few and low-quality shots. The graphic below shows just how good the defense led by Goalkeeper-of-the-Year Tim Melia and an injury-free Ike Opara was compared to the rest of league.
Read MoreOrlando City has rebuilt their roster with several blockbuster trades and signings this off-season. As they embark on their 4th MLS season, they finally look like a playoff-caliber team.
Orlando City came out of the gate guns blazing last March. The Lions started with a 7-1-0 record before things fell apart, and finished with a 10-15-9 record overall. Yes, that’s right. After starting the 2017 season with the strongest record in the league, Orlando City managed to secure just 3 more wins across the remaining 26 games. Curiously, their fall from grace apparently started in Week Eight, which is when former Ballon d’Or winner Kaka returned from injury and was re-inserted back into the lineup. It is both inaccurate and unfair to pin Orlando City’s poor 2017 season on him alone, because they had issues all over the field. But when a $7.1 million per year Designated Player can’t raise the level of a team, he is either past his prime or the team has far more problems besides him. For Orlando City in 2017, both were true.
Read MoreWith Dom Dwyer sold to Orlando, Sporting Kansas City is now without their mainstay attacking option of the last four seasons. This inevitably means they need someone will need to step into the vacancy.
Dwyer had eaten 77% of available minutes at the position over the last four years. An extremely high rate for a position that that generally sees plenty of turnover among both the world and Major League Soccer. Over the last three seasons he's averaged 2652 minutes played per year.
Only 29 times over the last three years has a striker surpassed the 2,000 minute mark, and only five names aside from Dwyer (Bradley Wright-Phillips, Chris Wondolowski, David Villa, Sebastian Giovinco and Will Bruin), were able to reach the plateau more than once.
Now, as Sporting turns the page on their offense from the last four years, the question begs, who is able to step into that role? Obviously the organization already has two very young and exciting options in Latif Blessing and Diego Rubio, with maybe Soony Saad being the dark horse candidate. Another potential option in Krisztian Nemeth whom the team is rumored to be in hot pursuit.
Read MoreAfter years of chasing Dom Dwyer, Orlando City got their guy. They sent a whole helluva lot of various pieces of allocation, financials and back-end laden incentives to Kansas City for the newly minted US international striker.
Aside from Dwyer being a good striker—and we’ll get to that in a second—he has a lot of various marketing appeal to him. He went to the University of South Florida, is newly capped by the US men's national team, and still garners good feelings in Orlando from 2013 when he scored 15 goals in only 13 total appearances for the Lions while on loan.
Read MoreThe 2016 campaign for Sporting Kansas City ended on a .500 note (13-13-8), but it was not a team that went through the season that picked up wins, losses or draws on a consistent basis. It was a campaign that saw the team enjoy the highest of highs and the lowest of lows, and everything in between.
Sporting roared at the start of the season, picking up four wins out of five, seemingly ready to put behind the demons of that gut wrenching penalty playoff loss to Portland in 2014. But after flying out of the gates, SKC immediately washed away those gains by picking up just one win in the next 11 matches. SKC would limp into the playoffs as the fifth seed, only to be knocked out by the eventual MLS Cup winners (again) on a late header from Seattle Sounders' forward Nelson Valdez.
Read MoreOkay, shots. We talk a lot about shots because, well, shots lead to goals. Obviously you can't have a goal without first attempting a shot. I know that was a deep thought, but just go with me here. We put a lot of emphasis on shots here and have dug into their expectation leading to goals. It's backed by the belief that shots are important statistics in correlation to team success. Now there are plenty of caveats to shots and we use them to influence our ideas of what is good or bad. Matthias has taken time to explain at least some of them.
So with all that said you can't read too much into all of these numbers. Take for instance the fact that Frederico Higuian creates 7.03 shots per 90 minutes. That's nearly a shot and a quarter more than Brad Davis at 5.79. Is Higuian a better shot creator because he creates one additional shot over the course of a single match? If that shot is from zone 4 or even 5, the value of that single shot becomes marginalized in that specific instance.
Despite all of those various acknowledgements of how this is marginally interesting, and yet mostly a useless exercise, I put together a follow-up of last week's top 50 individual shots creators in Major League Soccer. I decided it was best to cut up this data and present it via a tiered system to make it a bit more palatable and to highlight the players that have set themselves apart from their peers. Also, this allows me to be a bit creative in the tier process.
| Player | Club | POS | MINS | G | A | SHTS | Key Passes | Sh-C | Sh-C p90 | |
| 1 | Marco Di Vaio | MTL | F | 326 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 4 | 29 | 8.01 |
| 2 | Clint Dempsey | SEA | M | 393 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 7 | 33 | 7.56 |
| 3 | Federico Higuain | CLB | F | 538 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 42 | 7.03 |
| 4 | Robbie Keane | LA | F | 450 | 4 | 1 | 22 | 12 | 35 | 7.00 |
| 5 | Pedro Morales | VAN | M | 472 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 15 | 36 | 6.86 |
| 6 | Thierry Henry | NY | F | 449 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 9 | 32 | 6.41 |
Oh, yeah... Marco Di Viao. He's also pretty good at this whole soccer thing. I guess we can all say that we could have guessed every singl--what the hell is Pedro Morales doing in there??? I guess that probably explains a lot about what's been happening in Vancouver. He's second overall in total Shots Created and he could very well be a shoo-in for MLS Newcomer of the Year. He's like the offensive equivalent of what Jose Goncalves was last year to New England. I only have one question: who is this Camilo guy everyone was talking about?
| Player | Club | POS | MINS | G | A | SHTS | Key Passes | Sh-C | Sh-C p90 | |
| 7 | Landon Donovan | LA | M-F | 450 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 29 | 5.80 |
| 8 | Brad Davis | HOU | M | 311 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 20 | 5.79 |
| 9 | Graham Zusi | KC | F-M | 450 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 28 | 5.60 |
| 10 | Diego Valeri | POR | M | 579 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 16 | 35 | 5.44 |
| 11 | Dom Dwyer | KC | F | 427 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 3 | 25 | 5.27 |
| 12 | Leo Fernandes | PHI | F | 436 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 25 | 5.16 |
| 13 | Lloyd Sam | NY | M | 621 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 20 | 35 | 5.07 |
| 14 | Mike Magee | CHI | F | 450 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 25 | 5.00 |
| 15 | Giles Barnes | HOU | M | 527 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 29 | 4.95 |
| 16 | Justin Mapp | MTL | M | 585 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 32 | 4.92 |
| 17 | Michael Bradley | TOR | M | 433 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 23 | 4.78 |
| 18 | Mauro Diaz | DAL | M | 604 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 32 | 4.77 |
| 19 | Quincy Amarikwa | CHI | F | 548 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 29 | 4.76 |
| 20 | Felipe Martins | MTL | M | 626 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 33 | 4.74 |
| 21 | Gilberto | TOR | F | 423 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 9 | 22 | 4.68 |
| 22 | Cristian Maidana | PHI | M | 425 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 22 | 4.66 |
| 23 | Deshorn Brown | COL | F | 448 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 23 | 4.62 |
| 24 | Chris Wondolowski | SJ | F-M | 450 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 23 | 4.60 |
| 25 | Fabian Espindola | DC | F | 531 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 27 | 4.58 |
| 26 | Michel | DAL | M-D | 401 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 4.49 |
| 27 | Lamar Neagle | SEA | F | 506 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 24 | 4.27 |
| 28 | Obafemi Martins | SEA | F | 620 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 29 | 4.21 |
| 29 | Erick Torres | CHV | F | 603 | 6 | 0 | 22 | 6 | 28 | 4.18 |
| 30 | Javier Morales | RSL | M | 527 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 24 | 4.10 |
Justin Mapp has the same amount of total Shots Created as Mauro Diaz in almost 20 minutes less field time. Try thinking about that next time you're frustrated by Mapp's hair line. Try.
Dom Dwyer does not go away. This guy could be someone that we may need to start legitimately talking about in the coming weeks. You should probably add Leo Fernandez and Lloyd Sam to that obnoxious hype list too.
Speaking of Sam, I added him to my MLS Fantasy Roster for tonight, hedging the bet that he finally scores a goal. At last look, the guy currently holds the highest xGoal predictor score without actually scoring a goal. If there was ever a guy that was "due" to score a goal, it's him and I'm virtually betting on it happening.
On the note of not scoring goals, "Hi, Landon Donovan". Who, in case you didn't notice, is still a good player even when not putting the ball in the back of the net. Because, you know, skillz.
| Player | Club | POS | MINS | G | A | SHTS | Key Passes | Sh-C | Sh-C p90 | |
| 31 | Dwayne De Rosario | TOR | M | 254 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 3.90 |
| 32 | Mauro Rosales | CHV | M | 626 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 27 | 3.88 |
| 33 | Kenny Miller | VAN | F | 537 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 23 | 3.85 |
| 34 | Bradley Wright-Phillips | NY | F | 358 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 15 | 3.77 |
| 35 | Darren Mattocks | VAN | F | 580 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 24 | 3.72 |
| 36 | Jack McInerney | MTL | F | 436 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 18 | 3.72 |
| 37 | Will Bruin | HOU | F | 539 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 22 | 3.67 |
| 38 | Baggio Husidic | LA | M | 344 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 3.66 |
| 39 | Bernardo Anor | CLB | M | 497 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 20 | 3.62 |
| 40 | Hector Jimenez | CLB | M | 523 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 21 | 3.61 |
| 41 | Teal Bunbury | NE | F | 630 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 25 | 3.57 |
| 42 | Diego Fagundez | NE | M-F | 584 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 23 | 3.54 |
| 43 | Sal Zizzo | KC | F | 433 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 3.53 |
| 44 | Kenny Cooper | SEA | F | 358 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 14 | 3.52 |
| 45 | Benny Feilhaber | KC | M | 539 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 3.51 |
| 46 | Juninho | LA | M | 448 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 3.42 |
| 47 | Andrew Wenger | PHI | F | 528 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 20 | 3.41 |
| 48 | Eric Alexander | NY | M | 451 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 3.39 |
| 49 | Alex | CHI | M | 512 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 3.34 |
| 50 | Saer Sene | NE | M | 355 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 3.30 |
There are roughly 19 names here and I'm not going to go through them all. But key surprises are Jack McInerney, who everyone continues to think is "slumping" when he's not scoring goals. Baggio Husidic is making waves in that flashy new diamond attack in LA. Husidic is filling the hole that once upon a time existed out wide and makes the Robbie Rogers-trade look worse and worse, as he likely won't make it past a bench position upon return. Bernardo Anor has been doing a lot for Columbus out of the midfield but, perhaps, the bigger story than Anor--or even the LA trade for Rogers--is that fact that Gregg Berhalter pretty much stole Hector Jimenez who is looking brilliant in his new Crew colors.
Lastly, three other off season moves are having impacts with their new clubs.
There are a lot of things to take away from this. Like why didn't I just make two tiers: IBC Rootbeer and Barqs, which is basically all you're going to go with unless there is some local brewed Root beer that you want to try for funsies. Anyways, some information here. Not necessarily good information, but at this stage of analysis and data when it comes to MLS, and really soccer in general, what is "good" information?
As you might have seen from our twitter stream, I kind of wrote an article on DC United last night. Then I scrapped it. Then, Alex Olshansky dropped this brilliant mess concerning Michael Bradley, and I was like "that's basically what I was doing... on a team level!" So it kind of nudged me to at least put forth an effort to finish it...only not really. What I did was basically compiled stats for four "core" attacking players on three different clubs. Two of those clubs (Sporting KC and Houston Dynamo) have shown consistent success the last two years, while D.C. United...well, you know, they have kind of stunk the place up.
The rest I submit to you without further inane commentary.
SH=shots, KP=Key Passes SH/KP = Shots/key passes ratio ShCPG =Shots created per 90 minutes played %ofTeam= the total percentage of the teams shots that the individual created
SH=shots, KP=Key Passes SH/KP = Shots/key passes ratio ShCPG =Shots created per 90 minutes played %ofTeam= the total percentage of the teams shots that the individual created
SH=shots, KP=Key Passes SH/KP = Shots/key passes ratio ShCPG =Shots created per 90 minutes played %ofTeam= the total percentage of the teams shots that the individual created
I'll be frank: either week two of the MLS season was much less exciting than week one, or I did a poor job of picking games to watch and analyze this week. My bet is that both are true. Anyway, onto the show in which I take a look at three games from the weekend and pick a stat or Opta chalkboard image for each team that tells the story of how they played (last week's version is here if you missed it):
Stat that told the story for Dallas: outpassed 418-213, including 103-41 in the game's first half hour
A thought occurred to me when watching this game: Sporting Kansas City has to look a lot like a prototype of what Oscar Pareja wants out of his teams. From the formation to the high-pressing, KC has long made their money by manhandling opponents as soon as they get on the ball and not letting them get comfortable. In this game, Sporting came out fired up at home and simply punched Dallas in the mouth (not even completely a figure of speech - this game was brutally physical). The high-pressing from KC's entire team had FCD out of sorts for most of the first half, particularly the first 30 minutes, when they mustered only 41 completed passes.
But the Hoops managed a road draw against the defending champs, so the game wasn't completely a story of getting worked over. As the game wore on and Sporting found it difficult to keep up the constant pressure, Dallas was able to grow into the game a bit. They certainly were never dominant, but another very good game from Mauro Diaz and some smart counter-attacks allowed Pareja's team to stem the tide for the majority of the game. In the end, it was fitting that the slugfest of a game saw just two goals, both from set pieces, but Dallas should feel good about how they played as the game progressed and were able to steal a point.
Stat that told the story for Kansas City: lack of production from forward line: 15 offensive actions in attacking third
Sporting KC won MLS Cup last year and has unquestionably been one of the league's best teams for the last few seasons. But few would argue that this success is built on a very strong defense and midfield. The forward line has often been sort of an Achilles' heel for this squad, especially now that Kei Kamara has moved on. In this game, Graham Zusi was held out so he could stay fresh for CONCACAF Champions League action, and DP forward Claudio Bieler only came on for the last 13 minutes. But the five players who saw time at a forward spot for KC (Bieler, Dom Dwyer, Sal Zizzo, CJ Sapong and Jacob Peterson) combined to register 15 offensive actions in the attacking third.
To be clear, that 'offensive actions' stat that's illustrated above might have been made up by me just now, but it encompasses successful passes, dribbles, and all shot attempts. Too often on Saturday, and really for the last few years, Kansas City has dominated the game until the last thirty yards of the field, where they lack ideas. Getting Zusi back will likely help, as would playing Claudio Bieler for a full 90 minutes, but Sporting will need some more creativity and production from their forwards if they hope to lift another trophy this season.
Stat that told the story for Vancouver: only 53 passes in the offensive third (23 of which were after Kekuta Manneh came on in the 60th minute)
I tuned in for the Chivas-Vancouver matchup excited to see an offensive battle between two sides that combined for 7 goals in week one. Instead, I saw an early red card to the Goats' Agustin Pelletieri followed by a lot of dull possession for Vancouver against a surprisingly organized team in red and white stripes. After looking so deadly in attack against New York, the Whitecaps looked completely lost for ideas on Sunday, with the only forays into the offensive third seeming to come from chips over the top from the superb Pedro Morales. That all changed when Kekuta Manneh came on, as he attacked the Chivas defense with and without the ball, causing fits for Eric Avila and eventually scoring the equalizer for the 'Caps. Still, after playing 87 minutes against 10 men, Vancouver has to be rightfully disappointed at only earning a point.
Stat that told the story for Chivas: Mauro Rosales turning back the clock: 151 actions
The Seattle Sounders traded Mauro Rosales to Chivas this offseason because he was too expensive and too old to fit into the club's plans for 2014. Nobody even really argued with the decision, though Rosales is undeniably a classy player and won the league's Newcomer of the Year award in 2011. So far in 2014, playing in the red and white of the Goat Zombies, Rosales has looked a lot like the 2011 playmaker that Sounders fans knew and loved. Playing down a man, Rosales was everything you could hope from a smart, skilled veteran; he hoofed it up field when in trouble so his team could get organized, he led smart counter-attacks and he kept the ball when possible (with the help of Erick Torres, who also played very well). All in all, he registered 151 actions in Opta's chalkboard, 12 more than any other player and a whopping 47 more than his nearest teammate. Not bad for a washed-up 33-year-old.
Stat that told the story for Montreal: Marco Di Vaio's non-existant heat map
I've watched about 120 minutes of Montreal Impact soccer in the season's first two weeks, and just about every one of those minutes has been more impressive than I expected from the Impact this season. Despite having zero points from their first two games (both on the road), they've actually looked pretty good on the field. Justin Mapp is doing Justin Mapp things (like this awesome run & assist from week 1), Hernan Bernardello and Patrice Bernier are pinging beautiful balls to open up space, and Felipe and Andrew Wenger are getting in pretty good goal-scoring spots. So what's the reason behind the zero points? Well, not putting chances away against the Dynamo killed Montreal. ASA's shot numbers had their xGF at 1.15 this week, but there were plenty of other times that they wasted dangerous opportunities (one particular Wenger near-breakaway early in the first half stands out). If All-Star Italian striker Marco Di Vaio wasn't suspended, I have a hard time believing the Impact gets shutout last week.
Stat that told the story for Houston: 8 fouls conceded in the defensive third
This was another game where what I ended up watching did not line up with the expectations I had going in. After an open, attack-filled opening game with New England, Houston came out and didn't really do much offensively against Montreal. It was actually sort of a gameplan of old-school Dom Kinnear, as the Dynamo got an early goal thanks to a deflected Will Bruin shot, and then packed it in and made themselves hard to beat. They sat in two organized banks of four so that only the perfect ball from Montreal would be enough to beat them, and when it looked like they might get beaten, they did the professional thing and took a foul. Eight of Houston's 14 fouls conceded were in their defensive third, and while I can't offer much perspective on whether that's a high proportion compared to league average, I can tell you that many of them occurred when Montreal players were breaking away and getting ready to provide a scoring chance.
Agree with my assessments? Think I'm an idiot? I always enjoy feedback. @MLSAtheist or MLSAtheist@gmail.com
