How Do Teams Expansion Draft?

By Nate Gilman

Now that the soccer portion of the Major League Soccer season is over we can focus on what really matters: complicated systems by which the league shuttles players from one city to another. Though the 48-hour trade window came and went with little excitement, we’ll get a better look into what St. Louis CITY SC will look like on the field when it kicks off in 2023 

The expansion draft doesn’t play as big of a role in team building as it once did but there’s absolutely still value to be found. Just finding average (or slightly below average) contributors can be a boon for franchises in early seasons in the league. As Lutz Pfannenstiel looks to build his Designated Team, he’ll have an opportunity to find contributors already in MLS. So how have the recent teams done in this particular team building exercise?

Who Got It Right, Who Got It Wrong

Including the 2016 Expansion Draft, eight teams have joined MLS and had similar opportunities to what St. Louis will have on Friday. Finding long-term contributors from the draft has proven to be a challenge for those teams. 

Every new team since 2016 has gotten at 1,000 minutes out of expansion draftees. There is, however, a precipitous drop in the contributions between the first and second season in MLS. LAFC is the outlier in recent history. Draftees played more than 6,300 minutes in the Black and Gold’s debut season and just over 5,700 minutes in the following season. LAFC has continued to benefit from the expansion draft, still getting minutes from a selection in 2022. No other team has gotten more than a thousand minutes from a draftee after their third year in the league. 

For most teams, the dropoff in contributions come almost immediately. All of the teams that joined the league after 2016 got some level of contribution from draftees their first season. However, just two, LAFC and Minnesota, got more than a thousand minutes combined from those players. Inter Miami and FC Cincinnati played draftees for zero minutes in their second year and by year three, all but Atlanta and LAFC got any contributions. 

Charlotte FC, the most recent entrant to the league, was the only other team to rely on draftees for more than 5,000 minutes. They provide an interesting example, too. Those 5,000 minutes were split between just three players, McKinze Gaines, Anton Walkes, and Joseph Mora. Charlotte also drafted Tristan Blackmon and Ismael Tajouri-Shradi from LAFC and NYCFC respectively but dealt them to Vancouver and LAFC for a combined $875,000 in General Allocation Money. 

Getting minutes from expansion draftees is one thing but getting quality minutes is another thing entirely. As you can see, most of the cumulative on field contributions by players selected as measured by goals added above average fall at or below zero. 

Again, LAFC proves to be an outlier in that they actually got some high-level production from draftees but there’s one major reason: Latif Blessing. He was LAFC’s second pick in 2017 after the club selected Tyler Miller first. Though Blessing’s 2018 debut was solid, he exploded in 2019, putting up 4.17 G+ in nearly 3,000 minutes. Miller added another 3.03 G+ that season and LAFC won the Supporter’s Shield and set the league record for points. Carlos Vela’s monster 2109 is one of the best seasons in league history but Blessing and Miller played key roles on the team. Pretty good for expansion draft picks.

There’s certainly something to be said for a first year team like Charlotte getting more than 5,000 minutes from draftees. The on-field contributions might have been slightly below average but those players were likely the best options to be on the field. Add in the GAM received from the Blackmon and Tajouri-Shradi trades and Charlotte should feel pretty good about the 2021 Expansion Draft. 

MLS’ esoteric roster rules reward teams that can take advantage of any and all avenues to improve the overall quality of their rosters. St. Louis might be able to find contributors, even if they produce at a slightly below average, left unprotected by their teams on Thursday. 

A Couple Takeaways Looking Forward

Goalkeeper Value

Eight of the ten the best seasons (by G+ above average) among players selected or traded for in the expansion draft came from goalkeepers. Blessing’s 2019 leads the way but Miller’s 2019 is third and Jeff Attinella’s 2018 for the Portland Timbers ranks second. 

Minnesota selected Attinella in 2016 only to trade him to Portland in exchange for a second round pick (Xavier Gomez in 2018) and the MLS rights to Miguel Ibarra. Gomez never played for the Loons and Ibarra put up -.10 goals added above average per 96 minutes over more than 6,500 minutes in three seasons. Minnesota still found a starting keeper in the expansion draft, however. The Loons made another trade, acquiring Bobby Shuttleworth from New England in exchange for Femi Hollinger-Janzen. Across 2017 and 2018, Shuttleworth graded out as an average MLS goalkeeper. 

There are more examples. Nashville drafted Zarek Valentin only to trade him to Houston for still starting shot stopper Joe Willis. Much of the positive G+ from Atlanta’s draft picks comes from contributions from now FC Cincinnati backup Alec Kann. 

St. Louis probably won’t be interested in selecting a goalkeeper as Roman Bürki is already on the roster. But for any future additions to the league, going into the expansion draft looking for a goalkeeper who can tide you over isn’t a bad plan at all.  

Be Careful Trading Your Picks

Charlotte’s use of two expansion draft picks to acquire even more GAM is just the latest example in teams drafting a player and moving them immediately, usually for allocation money. Not all teams who tried it did as well for themselves as Charlotte. 

Austin Traded Kamal Miller for $225,000 GAM, Freddy Kleeman: Austin’s expansion draft hasn’t exactly paid dividends for the first team. Danny Hoesen hasn’t played very much, Jared Stroud was one of the few players traded during the trade window, and Brady Scott never played for the team. But the biggest missed opportunity might be Austin drafting Kamal Miller from Orlando City and trading him to Montreal for just $225,000 in GAM and a draft pick that Austin would use on Freddy Kleeman. Miller is likely headed to Qatar with Canada later this month and has been a very good defender for one Montreal in his two seasons. 

Nashville Traded Brandon Vazquez for $150,000 TAM: Nashville used its fourth pick to select Brandon Vazquez, who was traded to FC Cincinnati for $150,000 in TAM. At the time, Vazquez was raw but had shown flashes playing in Atlanta. Even after the trade, Vazquez didn’t properly break out until this year, though there were certainly indications in 2021. 

There have been other trades where the expansion drafting team made out better than their more established counter-party. But if St. Louis (or team that follows) gets a call from a competitor asking about an available player, they better be sure that the value they get back is fair and whether the player in question might not look better in their jersey.