2021 NWSL Season Previews: Kansas City and Racing Louisville

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We’re publishing two team previews every day this week until the NWSL regular season begins on Saturday (THAT’S TOMORROW!). You can find all of them here.

Today we have two teams that won’t be good, but will be interesting.

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Kansas City: Amy Rodriguez +10
By Carl Carpenter

Welcome back to the NWSL, Kansas City! While you don’t have a name yet, you certainly have a team on the field and it’s nice to have you back. Or is it? The start to this season in the Challenge Cup, while obviously caveated (see Racing Louisville, below) by the difficulties of starting a club during a global pandemic….it didn’t go great in the Challenge Cup. Attacking wise, in almost every discernible metric they rank near the bottom or at the bottom. A lot of this goes down to personnel - while they have some interesting pieces within the squad, much of their offensive game plan is seemingly getting the ball to Amy Rodriguez and hoping. And defensively they are super active but ineffective in how they go about it - opponent’s are still able to generate tons of quality chances against them and it’s shown early on. While I highly doubt public expectations were high heading into the season, we’ll see how Kansas City are able to improve upon what we’ve seen.

Squad Construction - Could Be Wurst!

While building a competitive roster is hard in itself - Kansas City were handicaped that they inherited almost all of their players from the Utah Royals (who ceased operations this year). Up front, the experienced Amy Rodriguez has led the line in every single match so far. Another promising player for them is Desiree Scott who has masqueraded in a number of roles this season - out wide and in the center of midfield. Finally, at the back, Kansas City have USWNT veteran goalkeeper Nicole Barnhart to bolster an already experienced backline and help provide a solid platform on which to build (both literally and figuratively).

However, outside of these players, there is a collective shrug in terms of what they provide. Much of this is manifested in how they play (more on that in a second), but there is generally very little previous output to look back on for the roster - either in NWSL or professional soccer. This inexperience is also present in head coach Huw Williams - currently entering his first season as the main man in NWSL. He does have plenty of experience in the league though, acting as the GM of the former iteration of Kansas City as well as assistant coach under Vlatko Andonovski.

Help Us A-Rod, You’re Our Only Hope

Despite playing one match (against Houston) in a 4-4-2, Williams and Kansas City seem intent on playing a 4-3-3. In possession, starting from the back, they are incredibly reliant on Desiree Scott. However, looking at her passing tendencies while receiving passes from the back four - they don’t exactly scream progression. Goals Added backs this up, as they provide almost null value to her team in passing (-0.01). As a player whose nickname is “the destroyer,” this should’ve been fairly easy to recognize in hindsight.

Desiree Scott’s passing map from the Challenge Cup in build-up play

These issues with even generating the most basic of opportunities in long periods of the game has forced Kansas City to become reliant on Amy Rodriguez - to both a positive and negative degree.

Amy Rodriguez is a player who thrives in situations where she can face the goal - either in receiving balls in behind, or dribbling at defenders 1v1. Because of KC’s inability to move the ball sustainability, she is forced to drop deep and act almost as a target forward: Playing with her back to goal, holding off defenders, and laying the ball off for others to run in behind. Combined with an extreme inability for other players in Kansas City’s front three to support her, her Goals Added numbers in passing, understandably are….bad, currently sitting at -0.48.

Despite the problems highlighted with their usage of Rodriguez, she is still their biggest threat with the ball - such is the “gravity” she attracts (as opponents know her threat in comparison to others) means that she frees up others to run relatively unopposed in transitional moments - where Kansas City have done most of their damage. This is linked with their defensive strategy, which will be discussed below. However, with every Kansas City positive, there comes a negative. These counter attacks aren’t really through any true planned strategy - many of them are through broken plays, mistakes at the back. How sustainable are these throughout a season? Not very. And they haven’t been reliable in the Challenge Cup either.

Running Around...A Lot

Kansas City’s defensive organization is EXTREMELY intense, but it is very chaotic and ineffective. Any sort of pressing metric you can find, PPDA (5.76), counterpressures per 90 (51), etc. and they rank high or middle of the pack. The problem is, they don’t get any success from it: They give up 1.47 xG per 90, 15.33 shots per 90, and three 1v1s per 90. There’s a few reasons why this is the case.

In their shape, Kansas City are a mixed off zonal and man-to-man. As with the attacking phases of play, they are heavily reliant on Amy Rodriguez (someone give this woman a raise) to direct and lead their press. Their 4-3-3 becomes more of a 4-5-1 in their mid block, and A-Rod is tasked with pressing so the opposition are forced into wide areas. Supporting players underneath, then compress the pitch to try and trap opponents and win the ball. In this movement to “trap” them wide, Kansas City pick up opponents to cut off passes - or at least, that’s the idea.

Pressing angles (i.e. how they shape their runs) are usually wrong, players off the ball are not diligent in tracking assignments, and it leads to a domino effect which makes KC easy to play through. Much of this could simply be down to lack of cohesion and players getting minutes together, but compared to other NWSL squads it’s quite jarring. Their levels of commitment cannot be faulted, but it’s wasted energy.

Let Me Be Frank - Conclusion

Do I think Kansas City has what it takes to turn their season around and become a threat in the regular season? Absolutely not. And that’s fine! Despite how negative I have been on this team, it really is nice to have a franchise located in a city which is so supportive and fervent for soccer, both in MLS and their previous NWSL iteration. It’s also a positive that the ownership “situation” involved with the Utah Royals is no longer hanging over the league. When it comes to on the pitch, the lack of real options to support Amy Rodriguez is one of the biggest reasons why their poor attacking metrics will likely continue to be so as the season progresses - year one should be an opportunity for the club and coaching staff to assess what they have in the roster and decide who to keep around. The defensive issues will have to be ironed out on the training pitch. It’s as simple as that. Another very important issue I must address is the name - I have plenty of barbecue related puns I’m willing to contribute. All they need to do is ask!

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Racing Louisville: More Of A Trot Than A Canter
By Carl Carpenter

We’ve got a new club, everybody! And with a new club that means a brand new group of players to fit together in a short space of time and many many growing pains - Racing Louisville is no different. An expansion season is tough for any team entering their first season as a club, but with the COVID-19 pandemic and all the uncertainty surrounding that, Louisville have been dealt a tougher hand than most. While results have not gone their way in the Challenge Cup, there are a few ways that head coach Christy Holly could try and lean into the strengths of their key players to turn things around. However, with strange roster construction (outside of the issues previously noted) - both in terms of professional experience and just overall talent, 2021 could prove to be a very frustrating one indeed. 

Fresh Faces - Everywhere

An expansion team means an expansion draft - An incredibly exciting prospect for fans prior to the draft, but in this case, Racing Louisville fans were likely left with more questions than answered. Some acquisitions were very positive - Yuki Nagasato is one of the more dynamic attacking players in the NWSL, and Savannah McCaskill is a borderline USWNT player. However, it is the rest of the roster which is…interesting! Outside of first time pros out of college, the rest of the starting XI and bench in the Challenge Cup is filled with players who have been on NWSL rosters but have not gained significant minutes for these clubs. Even squad additions who *do*have pedigree in the league (like Cheyna Matthews who took the year off) are coming off long layoffs due to injury or other circumstances. These issues are escalated by the selection of four players who will likely never take the field for Louisville.

Selecting Tobin Heath and Christen Press, two USWNT staples both currently at Manchester United in the Women’s Super League, would be enough of a gamble, however, on top of that they chose Caitlin Foord (Arsenal) and Alanna Kennedy (Tottenham). Due to the favorable scheduling of English football for international players, it would be incredibly surprising if they ever don a (beautiful) black and purple shirt. They could have selected four players in the draft who will be able to make a difference this season, but now are left shorthanded.

Failure To Launch (an Attack)

On the pitch, Racing have lined up in a hybrid 4-2-3-1/4-1-4-1: Freja Olofsson and Lauren Milliet acting as a double pivot, with the former sitting deeper when they are attacking. Looking at the numbers through four matches, and Racing are struggling mightily across the board. Using StatsBomb data: they are generating only eight shots per game, create 0.87 open play xG per 90, and complete 2.75 passes inside the penalty area per match. Essentially, their current configuration is making it hard for them to attack teams consistently and keep the ball in dangerous areas of the pitch. Why?

In their build up phase, opposition teams have thus far done a good job of forcing their starting center backs (Kaleigh Riehl and Brooke Hendrix) to do most of the facilitation and ball progression. Alongside this they try and screen holding midfielder Freja Olofsson - a player currently sitting on 0.08 for passing in Goals Added, away from the ball. This has forced players such as Savannah McCaskill away from dangerous areas in the final third to deeper areas where she is significantly less effective, and also made their full backs drop deeper - further clogging space in this phase of play.

An example of Racing’s shape in possession - note the asymmetric formation.

When Racing are able to progress the ball further upfield, they have a tendency to become obsessed with attacking down one side of the pitch (i.e. which side has worked) - Overloading wide areas and trying to combine in this manner. However, this also means that their attacking moves can become muddled down and more easily anticipated for the opposition. Without varying their sides of the pitch they attack through, and opponents are able to properly adjust they simply cannot get the ball into shooting territory. These tendencies don’t lean into the strengths of players like Nagasato and right-winger Emina Ekic - the former thriving in her ability off the ball to create space to receive in pockets of space or in behind, while Ekic loves to take players on 1v1.

One example of teams not adjusting well came in their first match of the season against Orlando who failed to deal with the threats in behind of Cece Kizer using her speed and the movement of Nagasato. The other three matches, however, teams have usually applied enough pressure on them across the pitch to not let their talented attacking players create chances. To sum it up, an unclear objective of what they want to do with the ball combined with opponent’s able to impose their style on them has led to Challenge Cup issues.

Defensive Silver Linings

If there were a few things that Racing should be positive about going forward are how their defensive metrics look (see below). While they struggle to create genuine chances of their own, most of their matches have been close and competitive thanks to their ability to prevent the opposition from creating their own.

For one, Racing are organized in their defensive structure - both in counterpressing (i.e. quickly hunting the ball down when they lose it) and general structure in sustained periods.

Somewhat ironically, their issues with spacing on the ball also contributes to great defensive access in pressing. When they attack and lose it in the final third, there is a real concerted effort to cut passing angles, mark players (i.e passing options), and try to regain it. This is backed up by the numbers: a passes per defensive action (PPDA) of 8.25 is currently second in NWSL.

More often than not, though, Racing looks to deny central penetration, force opponents out wide and trap them in these compressed areas to win it (see below).

Cece Kizer up front and Yuki Nagasato and Emina Ekic are quite adept at using clever pressing angles to force center backs on the ball into congested areas - thus allowing supporting full backs and midfielders to close space and apply pressure on the ball. This is certainly one area that Christy Holly has nailed in his early days as head coach - dynamic attackers also (when coached well) lead to dynamic defenders in the opposition’s half. The task now is how to become more sustainable with the ball so they aren’t forced to become so reliant on defensive stability over the course of a whole campaign.

What’s The Outlook?

The many issues highlighted previously are understandable: COVID, an expansion season, etc. However, many of Racing Louisville’s issues are seemingly self imposed by strange roster decisions which have left them with a very threadbare squad: both in terms of sheer quality and experience in NWSL. Because of this, their attacking issues are quite glaring from what we saw in the Challenge Cup. However, with a strong defensive base to build from and a full season under their belt, there are a few signs that Louisville could be a very solid team going forward - possibly for players who will join the club in the near future (Gemma Bonner, for example) as well as more fanciful dreams of incomers. Once a clear identity is sorted out on the pitch, we will fully see what they are capable of. Christy Holly has previous experience in NWSL - although it didn’t go great, he has pedigree in helping attacking players succeed (such as Sam Kerr at Sky Blue), and he’s filled his backroom staff with very good people, such as assistant coach Gary Curneen and Director of Analytics Austin Buchanan. Hopefully we’ll see Racing Louisville become pacemakers in the league! (Please allow me one last horse racing pun).