2021 NWSL Season Previews: Portland Thorns and Washington Spirit
/We’re publishing two team previews every day this week until the NWSL regular season begins on Saturday. You can find all of them here.
Today we have the teams with rosters designed to win it all. One in 2021, the other in the years to come.
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Portland: Every Thorn Has It’s Rose
By Lydia Vandenbergh-Jackson
Portland has been a consistent playoff contender during their time in the NWSL, winning trophies in 2013 and 2017. Last season, the Thorns made it to the quarterfinals of the Challenge Cup and finished on top taking home the Community Shield in the Fall Series, and they picked up where they left off by winning the 2021 Challenge Cup. Considering that the last two seasons the Thorns have failed to reach the NWSL finals, the club has been very active this offseason in building a roster that will position them to dominate the league, at least, on paper. But what makes Portland so good and who will be the difference for them this season?
Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference.
The biggest shake-up to the roster for the Rose City side comes with the addition and subtraction of two USWNT players: Crystal Dunn arrives from North Carolina and Tobin Heath is with Manchester United. Dunn has proven herself to be one of the best players in the league (and world) and her name is written in pen for every USWNT roster announcement for the foreseeable future. Though she make her mark for the national team under Jill Ellis as a fullback, she has excelled in NWSL in recent years as a winger. In the 2019 season, Dunn finished first in key passes for attacking mids with 2.34 per 96 and fifth overall when compared to all positions. Her Goals Added (g+) value for attacking midfielders is also one of the best. Dunn finished second just behind Debinha with 0.16 per 96. Her highest value here is interrupting which would be obvious watching her play. Dunn is a scrappy disrupter who is hard to get past. Despite losing Tobin Heath, Dunn is an upgrade to the squad on both sides of the ball.
You can’t talk about the Thorns without talking about the G.O.A.T., Christine Sinclair. With her long resume and accolades at the age of 38, she still is dominating the league. Last season, she led the league in goals despite not scoring a single goal in the Challenge Cup. She made up for it in 2021 by finding the net in the Challenge Cup final. The majority of her g+ value comes with shots inside the penalty area which is indeed where all her goals were scored.
viz by Kieran Doyle-Davis
When you have an incredible goal scorer like Sinclair it's imperative to get balls to her in good shooting locations. In looking at all passes or crosses into the penalty area, Portland doesn’t favor a specific location or side, making their attack unpredictable coming from anywhere. Meghan Klingenberg had the most key passes for the Thorns in 2019 (38) and 2020 (18). Lindsey Horan, another USWNT player and 2018 NWSL MVP, creates opportunities from the midfield - she finished third in NWSL in expected assists last year.
It will be exciting to see Morgan Weaver and Sophia Smith complete a full season in 2021. Despite only playing 370 and 197 minutes in 2020, they managed to finish 4th and 5th respectively on the team in xA+xG. As the top two picks in the 2020 draft, the rookies had a solid start to their pro careers but will get better with more games under their belt. Both are dangerous running at players and have the ability to pick out players in the penalty area.
Portland was also the only team in 2020 to have five players average at least 0.15 xG+xA per game. It’s not surprising to see the core of Sinclair, Horan, and Klingenberg on the list, but Simone Charley was fourth overall in her third season with the Thorns. She also led the team and was fifth overall in g+ in the 2021 Challenge Cup with 0.26 per 96. And that leaves Rocky Rodriguez. Rodriguez is the leading goal scorer for the Costa Rican national team and will play a crucial role for the Thorns when the Olympics roll aroundl. The talent on this squad is deeper than most. It isn’t easy to stop one player who is very dangerous, but five? Good luck.
Did we even mention Adrianna Franch and Becky Sauerbrunn yet? Both quality veteran returners whose significant roles will determine the Thorns defensive success. Newcomer defender Natalia Kuikka helped Florida State with a National Championship in 2018 had been playing with top Swedish club, Göteborg FC prior to signing with the Thorns. Kuikka has earned 52 international caps with Finland and should add great depth to the backline.
The Thorns won the 2021 Challenge Cup narrowly in penalty kicks. Will they be able to continue their success in the regular season? On paper, this is the best team in NWSL, but that doesn’t mean they’ll win it all. Should they? Yes, no doubt. Even if they don’t, get your popcorn ready because we’ll see some entertaining football from the Thorns.
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Washington: The Hatch Act Passes
By Carl Carpenter
Heading into the new season, most of the focus on the Spirit from the outside will be on how they adapt to losing Rose Lavelle. However, the Spirit’s success in the truncated 2020 Challenge Cup and Fall Series didn’t include her either. 2021 provides an opportunity for the Spirit to build upon strong foundations and try to compete at the top of the table in the NWSL this season. The story of the club since the hectic 2017 season (seeing the departures of Kristie Mewis, Ali Krieger, and Crystal Dunn) has been steady improvements across the board: investing in young talent and looking to become one of the league’s top sides. This change in fortunes has been curbed due to circumstances out of their control (injuries, COVID, etc.) but these excuses can only last for so long - can this be the year the Spirit breakthrough and take home the title? To do so, head coach Richie Burke has slightly adapted his strategy in preseason and the Challenge Cup. If it all comes together they could be an exciting and dynamic side to watch. If not, they will be a side to watch for all the wrong reasons - the key to a successful 2021 is utilizing their considerable depth efficiently.
Roster Changes/Newcomers
As mentioned, the big news is the loss of Rose Lavelle, while in truth 17 matches played over two seasons due to an incredibly dodgy injury record made her a non-entity for the Spirit. One of the additions to the squad that has exceeded even the highest of expectations has been Trinity Rodman. Very little was expected of her in the Challenge Cup, and yet she has been one of the stories of the season thus far. A goal on her debut has led to more starts and many more “wow” moments. While dips are to be expected over the course of the rest of the season, she looks to be something very special. Any doubts about her draft selection and hype prior to any professional minutes are long gone. Alongside her dynamic threat, other additions to the roster should provide the Spirit with an improved team as a whole - something that has been a consistent feature of their squad building strategy for a few years now. Joining the backline are two US internationals Emily Sonnett and Kelley O’Hara, who should bolster an already strong core. Other notable additions to the squad include Saori Takarada, a Japanese international who has played consistently in both midfield and defense, but looks to be locked at centerback for the Spirit.
Key Returners
One of the biggest questions about the Spirit going forward is Ashley Hatch. Often deployed as a lone #9 in the front three, she has flattered to deceive for much of her NWSL career. If she wants to keep staking a claim as being the team’s starting forward, she needs to become more consistent with putting the ball in the back of the net. To help her in this regard, it’s imperative the Spirit get bodies around her and make sure she isn’t isolated - which she was for much of 2020. More will be touched on later, but her best attributes are getting on the end of service in the box (as is the case with most #9s). If she has to create for herself 25+ yards from goal and move closer to goal from there, it makes her job infinitely more difficult.
Bayley Feist was one of the major beneficiaries of uncertainty last season - stepping up and helping the Spirit considerably thanks to *gestures wildly* at everything that happened in 2020. In what should be a more settled roster and season (apart from the obvious international demands that rip apart squads in the summer), Feist should’ve been able continue to become an important role player and plug holes where needed. However, in the opening game of the Challenge Cup, she tore her ACL. A huge blow to the Spirit.
Paige Nielsen was *the* prime player in NWSL for g+ and the interrupting subcategory - put bluntly, she is one of the premier defenders in the league. Alongside Samantha Staab (and Emily Sonnett), who is more of a facilitator/ball playing defender there's really no excuses for the Spirit not to become one of the toughest teams to create chances against.
The final Spirit player it’s important to touch on is Ashley Sanchez. In the system utilized in 2020, she was forced to play wide left in the front three: Now, she should be given more duties due to tactics (see below) and increased squad depth at leaning in towards her natural tendencies of playing more centrally: either as a second forward, or a #10 hybrid. Early signs are pointing to that too - Sanchez is creating tons of shots for herself, and getting touches in the box at a great rate.
Tactics
While the Spirit did switch around shape once or twice in both the Fall Series and the Challenge Cup, Richie Burke favored a 4-3-3 or some variation which utilized a front three in 2020. Early signs based on reports from preseason, however, pointed towards a switch towards a back three, and this is indeed how they started.
The Spirit are a team who consistently have tried to build from the back and manipulate the opposition with the ball. Starting from the back, this suits the strengths of every member of the unit: center backs Samantha Staab and Paige Nielsen provided 0.27 and 0.15 g+ passing value to the team. Combined with the addition of Emily Sonnett this offseason, this should allow the Spirit to utilize the third defender and push the wing backs high and wide. Kelley O’Hara, another new addition has been one of the finest attacking defenders in world soccer for years now, and with Tegan McGrady on the other flank, the Spirit should be able to get a lot out of wide positions this season. These strengths in the wing back positions are of course caveated in two ways - O’Hara will have international commitments and on top of that, both she and McGrady have been unlucky in staying healthy for extended periods of time. In O’Hara’s absence, Tori Huster has filled these positions so far.
An example of the front three’s dynamics - Narrow, with winners encouraged to drop into pockets or deep to find the ball. Wing backs creating width.
In terms of the midfield and forward positions, the flexibility of the shape should allow them to configure the attacking positions to suit the needs of Hatch in getting her the aforementioned support she needs to thrive. The Spirit rarely toyed with playing two center forwards last season, but the change to utilizing wing backs (in place of more natural wingers), should allow Ashley Sanchez to play a more central role: either playing deeper off/underneath Hatch or up alongside her. So far, it’s been a rotating cast of players - Trinity Rodman’s form on the left has made her seemingly undroppable at this moment in time, and the other player in the front three has been largely based on availability.
While a back three has been the shape that Richie Burke wants to make a part of the team’s identity, they have played 4-3-3 (last season’s formation) from the start in their last Challenge Cup match, and have switched to it periodically in various phases of matches. Four games isn’t enough to make broad generalizations, but this will be an interesting storyline to pick up on in the regular season.
Capital (De)fense
Out of possession, the balance needs to be correct for the Spirit to exploit their offensive talent without becoming overly aggressive in this aspect. Early signs are positive, but not without their faults. Richie Burke has seemingly settled on an aggressive pressing style without the ball, utilizing the extra player at the back (normally a 5-2-3) to try and impose their energy on opponents. This has led to good numbers in these metrics, but they still are giving up high xG numbers and conceding goals. Why?
Washington’s mid-block shape when defending in their 5-2-3
The basic truth is that poor individual mistakes while building from the back have led to many of the chances they have given up. This is obviously something that isn’t a systematic coaching issue - odds are these will be less frequent as the season goes on. Problems which are a deeper flaw of the Spirit are their approaches to defending in transition in moments where their press is broken. Due to the aggressive nature of the wing backs, The center backs (both in their back three or back four) are often left exposed when their press goes wrong - a balance on the weak side needs to be imposed to prevent these problems. They also struggle with players (primarily midfielders) picking up late runners in the box.
Conclusion
2020 was, of course, a giant mess for everyone in the NWSL (okay, and the entire world too). However, the Washington Spirit showed many signs of promise, continuing on their theme of steady improvement in regards to overall team strength. In 2021, this improvement now manifests itself in depth and therefore flexibility. The early signs of a switch to a system utilizing a back three should benefit the returners - both in terms of supporting what they are already good at, as well improving areas they were deficient. Players brought in this summer will also create a competition for places and increase the ability to switch up systems within the playing style the Spirit have tried to impose on opponents. While the Challenge CUp has been a mixed bag for the Spirit, I am positive about them going forward - the issues discussed defensively and an increased level of continuity up front need to be addressed if they are to continue their upwards trajectory in recent seasons.