2021 MLS Season Previews: Minnesota United, New England Revolution, and Orlando City SC
/We’re publishing three team previews every weekday until MLS First Kick on April 16th. You can find all of them here.
Today we’re looking at three teams who had positive 2020 seasons, but are looking to join the top echelon of MLS squads in 2021.
_________________________________________________
Minnesota: O Come, O Come, Emanuel
By Ryan Anderson
Anno Domini Two Thousand Twenty was almost the Year of the Loon. Almost.
Minnesota United almost made it into the MLS Is Back final, losing 3-1 to Orlando. They scored three goals in almost every playoff game. They almost made it to the MLS Cup final (but they didn’t score three goals). The hardy Minnesota sports fans are used to the false hope, though. We take pride in expecting the let-down.
All in all, the Loons are almost an elite contender in MLS, but there is a downside to all this newfound almost-greatness: manager Adrian Heath can no longer bellyache about being the underdog in most of his matchups. No one thinks MNUFC is an underdog anymore.
How Good Is Reynoso?
Understanding the 2020 season begins with a similarity between a player who helped end their season and the team’s newest star. As MLS fans and pundits have gotten to see more of Emanuel “Bebelo” Reynoso, Minnesota’s biggest signing has been drawing more and more comparisons to Seattle Sounders’ star playmaker Nicolás Lodeiro. But really how do the two of them stack up? Can we really start calling a player who is brand new to the league “the next Lodeiro”?
Besides their respective transfers from Boca Juniors to their current teams, the two share several traits:
Both act as the primary playmaker for their team but are more willing than many modern attacking midfielders (cough, Albert Rusnák, cough) to participate in defense.
They ended the 2020 regular season with essentially the same non-penalty xG and xA rates.
They both have tried bleaching their hairs, to varying levels of success. The unbleached versions are compared at right.
The two are also compared for their passing abilities. While not the best pure passer, Reynoso is still above average. He completes 0.94 more passes than expected per 100 passes, compared to Lodeiro’s -0.03, with neither player standing out from the crowd in sheer accuracy. But where “El Rey” really shines is in the value of his passes.
| Pre-Reynoso | Reynoso Era | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| g+/game | games | g+/game | games | Improvement | |
| 1.41 | 7 | 2.22 | 10 | 0.81 | |
| 1.55 | 9 | 2.25 | 13 | 0.70 | |
| 1.60 | 6 | 2.11 | 15 | 0.51 | |
| 1.86 | 7 | 2.30 | 13 | 0.44 | |
| 1.85 | 8 | 2.29 | 12 | 0.43 | |
| 1.56 | 8 | 1.92 | 14 | 0.36 | |
| 2.11 | 8 | 2.45 | 14 | 0.34 | |
| 2.01 | 9 | 2.32 | 13 | 0.31 | |
| 1.74 | 8 | 2.00 | 13 | 0.27 | |
| 1.94 | 7 | 2.16 | 15 | 0.21 | |
| 1.75 | 8 | 1.92 | 14 | 0.18 | |
| 2.21 | 7 | 2.38 | 14 | 0.17 | |
| 1.73 | 6 | 1.85 | 16 | 0.13 | |
| 1.81 | 8 | 1.92 | 14 | 0.11 | |
| 1.51 | 8 | 1.58 | 14 | 0.07 | |
| 1.56 | 9 | 1.63 | 13 | 0.06 | |
| 1.93 | 8 | 1.88 | 14 | -0.05 | |
| 2.16 | 6 | 2.10 | 15 | -0.05 | |
| 1.31 | 9 | 1.24 | 13 | -0.07 | |
| 1.98 | 9 | 1.81 | 13 | -0.17 | |
| 2.00 | 7 | 1.75 | 15 | -0.25 | |
| 1.82 | 7 | 1.58 | 14 | -0.25 | |
| 2.19 | 7 | 1.91 | 14 | -0.28 | |
| 2.54 | 7 | 2.24 | 14 | -0.30 | |
| 2.25 | 8 | 1.84 | 13 | -0.41 | |
| 2.42 | 8 | 2.00 | 14 | -0.42 | |
As Jamon Moore and Carlon Carpenter have been detailing in their series Where Goals Come From, progressive passes are the types of passes which create the most goals in the professional game. At 5.24 yards average vertical distance per pass, Reynoso’s passes progressed the team a full two yards farther up the pitch than Lodeiro’s; his mark was second only to Kaku amongst attacking midfielders. That, combined with the 7th-highest percentage of team touches in MLS (Lodeiro was 2nd), comprises the league’s most valuable passing résumé at the attacking midfielder position. At 0.09 goals added above average per 96 minutes, Minnesota’s playmaker earned the third-best passing g+ above average in the league last year (minimum 500 minutes), behind only striker Fredy Montero and former MNUFC winger/10 Darwin Quintero.
The Argentinian midfielder appears to have had an effect on the entire team. From a g+ perspective, his passing and his dribbling skills helped to make Minnesota United the fourth-most improved team from before he debuted on September 3rd to the end of the 2020 regular season.
Any way you cut it, Emanuel Reynoso is one of the best if not the best central playmaker in the league. Lodeiro had better watch his back.
How to replace Kevin Molino?
Minnesota’s top goalscorer has not been a striker since Christian Ramirez scored 14 goals in the team’s inaugural 2017 season. The pattern continued in 2020 with winger/10 Kevin Molino bagging a team-leading eight. Molino is now with MLS Cup champions Columbus Crew, though, leaving behind a gaping hole after producing a whopping quarter of the team’s goals.
When we dig deeper than just goals and assists, what, exactly, did “Hot Boy” bring to the Loons’ offense, and how on God’s green definitely-not-turf are they going to replace his production?
| Position | Minutes | Dribbling | Fouling | Interrupting | Passing | Receiving | Shooting | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | 1359 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.06 | 0.04 | 0.10 | ||
| CB | 1170 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.08 | -0.01 | 0.04 | 0.10 | ||
| AM | 892 | 0.04 | -0.01 | 0.00 | 0.09 | -0.03 | 0.08 | ||
| DM | 818 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.03 | -0.01 | 0.07 | ||
| DM | 653 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.06 | ||
| W | 1718 | 0.05 | -0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.06 | ||
| CB | 936 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.06 | -0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | ||
| CB | 1867 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.05 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 | ||
| DM | 1744 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.02 | 0.03 | ||
| FB | 1945 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.03 | ||
| W | 1031 | 0.02 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 | ||
| FB | 1637 | 0.01 | -0.01 | -0.04 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.06 | ||
| DM | 1332 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.10 |
Most of Molino’s goals added came in his receiving and shooting abilities, and he was well below average in passing value. In essence, he was producing like a striker or center forward would be expected to but from the wing. He was tied for the sixth-best shooting g+ per 96 minutes with Alan Pulido and Raúl Ruidíaz; Diego Rossi was the only winger to rank higher. And while he wasn’t getting the receiving value you’d expect from a true striker, he was solidly above-average in that category for wingers.
Besides his injury history, Kevin Molino gives you exactly what you’d expect from a dangerous attacker: perfectly-timed runs, telepathic connection with teammates, goal awareness, and sickly sweet finishing.
Straight-up, the Loons need pure attacking talent. Their midfield trio of Reynoso, Alonso, and Gregus are all above-average passers and dribblers; buildup play probably won’t be an issue. But beyond Ethan Finlay’s fragile knees and Robin Lod’s rich TAM contract, there isn’t much in the way of attackers. Lod played as a false nine a few games last year to moderate success, and MNUFC signed journeyman Juan Agudelo as only the second forward on their roster at the time, but neither one of these options are long-term solutions at striker. The DP slot vacated by sending Thomás Chacón on loan to Uruguayan club Liverpool leaves the team some room to bring in some serious firepower in the attack.
And there is some hope on that front: it appears Bebelo’s success in Minnesota has attracted other high-level players whom the team probably wouldn’t have been able to get otherwise. His former teammate Ramón "Wanchope" Ábila has decided to join him in the “Land of 10,000 Lakes” on a one-year loan, with an (albeit expensive and unlikely) option to make the move permanent. His reasoning: his “longstanding friendship” with his fellow Córdoba, Argentina, native. The 31-year-old TAM-level striker comes to MLS as a prolific scorer in one of the top leagues in the Western Hemisphere, netting 41 goals and 15 assists in 88 games for Boca Juniors and CA Huracan.
On the winger front, Jeff Reuter recently reported Minnesota is in advanced talks to get LW Franco Fragapane on a TAM deal, and there are rumors of Heath targeting versatile attacker Adrien Hunou as a designated player later in the season.
Given Molino’s and Finlay’s injury woes, adding a couple of TAM/DP attackers would likely make up for Molino’s production and allow Finlay to operate as a super-sub off the bench when the team needs an attacking boost.
Stability in Defense
On the defensive side of things, Minnesota remains strong. They have arguably the deepest goalkeeper roster in the league, with two well-qualified starters in Dayne St. Clair and Tyler Miller competing for the top spot, along with veteran backup Adrian Zendejas and homegrown 17-year-old Fred Emmings. Most fans are leaning toward DSC starting in goal over the much-higher-paid Miller, but who ever knows what Adrian Heath will do?
The starting back four of Metanire, Boxall, Dibassy, and Gasper are back this year--though surprisingly Jose Aja is gone--with some added depth and/or competition in the form of Jukka Raitala (LB) and Callum Montgomery (CB). They didn’t look like they missed Ike Opara that much last year, and that’s a good thing, as it unfortunately looks like the team may be looking to mutually part ways for the sake of his health.
2021 Prognosis
With a mostly-intact defense and spine from last year and a healthy amount of cash being thrown at new attacking talent, Minnesota United has a fantastic chance of improving on their 4th-place finish in the Western Conference from last year. And although they have less than a 4% chance of winning MLS Cup in 2021 (according to most bettors I saw as of April 13), even if the Loons don’t bring home any trophies again, at least we can say it’ll once again be a fun team to watch.
_________________________________________________
New England: Kraft Werk - Com-Bou-ter Love
By Harrison Crow
In 2019, Bruce Arena was hired to take over a limping New England organization as both Manager and General Manager. This move understandably created a lot of fanfare, and Arena proceeded to revamp New England by changing….mostly nothing.
Arena’s approach of “just get your best guys on the field in more or less the correct positions” has worked pretty well and New England are now not only competent, but surprisingly fun.
The reasons for New England’s change in fortunes are not difficult to identify. Carles Gil and Gustavo Bou have helped carry an unexpectedly lethal attack, and (to no surprise whatsoever of anybody at ASA) Matt Turner has developed into arguably the league’s best shot stopper (even if MLS Goalkeeper of the Year voters are either unable or unwilling to recognize this).
The main issue transitioning from 2019 to 2020 was the high volume of shots and high leverage opportunities that New England’s defense allowed. Potentially related to Arena’s lack of appreciation of the xG statistic, in 2019 New England conceded opportunities that resulted in a horrifying xGA of 1.87 per match, which ranks as the 5th worst of all time in ASA’s database.
While New England’s staff may not be impressed with the way that particular number is produced, you didn’t need an advanced mathematics degree to pinpoint New England’s defensive issues as the team’s biggest priority heading into last year’s abridged campaign.
The shrewd selection of Henry Kessler in the first round of the 2020 Superdraft looks to have helped curb this issue, as he quickly developed into a first choice starter, a member of the US u23 program, and what ASA’s own metric “g+” considers to be an above average defender in the league.
Arena also saw New England’s picks from the 2019 draft bear fruit with DeJuan Jones and Tajon Buchanan being converted into quasi wing/fullbacks. Picking up former Chicago Fire player Matt Polster also helped cap New England’s defensive makeover.
These four players, in addition to veteran Andrew Farrell quietly went from the league’s 21st worst xGA in 2019 to the fifth best in 2020. This defensive corps looks to improve further in 2021 with the acquisition of left back Christian Mafla to replace Alexander Buttner.
New England’s attack, despite missing Carles Gil last season, was still one of the best in the league, owing in no small part to the talents of Gustavo Bou, Teal Bunbury, and Adam Buksa. Bunbury is possibly the most underrated attacker in Major League Soccer. I have neither the time nor permission to write a 2000 word digression of what he’s accomplished in New England, but let me at least acknowledge his contribution with two quick statistics. He has New England’s second highest xG+xA from open play in our dataset (back to 2013), even ahead of Lee Nguyen in fewer minutes, and he has scored the fourth most goals.
But Bunbury is turning 31 years old, and he’ll have some competition for minutes in Icelandic TAM signing Arnor Ingvi Traustason. Whether Trustauson is a regular starter or seen more as depth, it’s certainly an improvement on the triumvirate of interesting but ultimately unremarkable attackers Cristian Penilla, Diego Fagundez, and Kekuta Manneh.
The real question for this team, and how well they’re going to perform in 2021 largely depends on how much they’re going to get out of Gustavo Bou. Carles Gil will get most of the attention and plaudits (and deservedly so), but in New England’s electric attack, Bou seems to have one of the simplest and largest improvements available. While he does score the occasional 30 yard banger, his shot selection is, at best, ambitious:
There is more to shot creation than only taking shots from inside the 18 yard box, or when you’re dead certain that you’ll score. There’s a fascinating conversation right now in the soccer analytics community about how valuable these outside shots really are and how they can affect how a defense sets up and responds to attacks. I think there is probably a happy medium where Bou can still spin the wheel and “have a hit” when the situation calls for it, but there’s a lot of wasted possession here that could be mitigated a great deal simply by showing slightly more discretion.
Bou has exciting skills, and his ability to score is the most obvious reason New England splashed out a six million dollar transfer fee for him. His talent, versatility, and skill level is comparable to those considered to be the league’s best in his position, but a little more consistency could go a long way towards pushing New England forward in 2021.
New England has all the pieces of a team that can and should compete for a playoff spot and higher. This team could very well earn a deep playoff run or an MLS Cup final appearance. Their success lies in the execution of their stars executing more consistently in the final third and the continued growth of their talented youth in defense. If they can manage even just “most” of this, they’re going to be a very tough team that will be competing for Easter Conference honors in 2021.
Orlando: Living on a Pareja
By Zach Beery
The 2020 season was historic for Orlando City. They hosted the chaotic mid-season MLS Is Back tournament and surprised the league by finishing second. Two of their young prospects, Chris Mueller and Daryl Dike, broke out and played their way into national team contention. Most importantly, Orlando City made the playoffs for the first time in club history. They were even able to win a playoff game in peak MLS style.
Their playoff appearance ended their five-season playoff drought, which was tied for second all-time with Chivas USA; Toronto FC’s record of eight playoff-less seasons will hold for a while longer. Orlando finished the 2020 MLS regular season tied in fourth for points per game. Based on xG and g+ difference, Orlando was the ninth best team during the regular season. The underlying metrics depict them as a solid playoff team but not quite a title contender. Orlando out-performed their expected goals for by 7.6 goals. A majority of the hot finishing was from Orlando’s two young Americans, Daryl Dike (8 G / 4.7 xG) and Chris Mueller (10 G / 5.8 xG). After their breakout season, both players made their international debut with the USMNT. Dike was loaned out to Championship team Barnsley, where he continues to score at an unsustainable rate of eight goals from only 25 shots.
Dike’s loan is set to end by the middle of May, but it is unlikely he stays in Orlando for long. Dike was an important player for Orlando, but they should be able to replace his on-field production with the incoming transfer fees.
We can see from the g+ wheels above that Chris Mueller was the better player for Orlando last year, particularly at receiving the ball in dangerous positions. His receiving g+ above average was 3rd among wingers, only behind best XI wingers Diego Rossi and Jordan Morris. His g+ stats over his first three seasons have been consistent except for the spike in receiving value he added this year. This is probably most likely due to Orlando finally adding a true creator in the midfield with the addition of Mauricio Pereyra. Pereyra’s 0.09 passing g+ per 96 was the highest passing value by a midfield teammate since Mueller has been on the team.
Offseason Moves
With Dike gone for the beginning of the season and possibly longer, Orlando brought in Alexandre Pato. Experienced aging European players have been hit or miss in MLS historically and Pato has struggled with injuries his whole career, so we will see if Orlando will be able to rely on him. You know what they say, “If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it is probably a duck.” Orlando also brought in Silvester van der Water from Heracles Almelo in the Eredivisie. Van der Water should provide some depth on the winger position behind Nani, Mueller, and Michel.
data from fbref
I built the above chart as a quick way to evaluate where MLS teams excel or underachieve. The two metrics that Orlando stands out in is xG per shot for and xG per shot against. Based on data from ASA, Orlando ranked in the ninth in shot quality for and second in shot quality against (as in holding opponents to the second lowest average quality shot). Orlando was so successful in forcing their opponents to take lower quality shots by not being exposed on the break that only 1.6% of the expected goals against Orlando occurred during a fast break, as defined by ASA. The league average expected goals from fast break as a proportion to total expected goals against was 5.6%. Only NYCFC had a lower proportion than Orlando. The average xG for fast break shots during the 2020 MLS season was 0.214 compared to .106 for all shots. Besides a penalty, shots on the break are the best shots a team can get due to the additional space provided by the scattered defense. Orlando excelled at creating fast break shots as well. Overall Orlando had 17 shots on the break compared to five shots against on the break. This was the largest difference in the league between fast break shots for vs against.
2021 Prognosis
Orlando should be a comfortable playoff team, possibly pushing for the top of the table in the East. The second half of the season will be very compact, and I am concerned if their attackers will be able to hold up. Three of their four projected starting attackers – Nani (34), Pereya (31) and Pato (31) – are over 30 years old. We will see if these guys will be able to hold up, but Orlando should have the depth to cope with an attacker or two going down throughout the season.