2021 MLS Season Preview: Los Angeles FC, Inter Miami, and Real Salt Lake
/We’re publishing team previews every weekday until MLS First Kick on April 16th (THAT’S TODAY!). You can find all of them here.
These three teams are all over the place.
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Los Angeles FC: Looking Through Rossi Colored Glasses
By Drew Olsen
The thing about MLS previews is that they’re always wrong. The league’s year-on-year correlation charts for any team-level performance metric — points per game, goal difference, expected goal difference, even goals added — are scattered all over the damn place like a Brian Rodríguez shot map. Relative parity and thin rosters mean that pretty much any minor inconvenience can derail a season: some whiffed transfers, a key injury or two, a global pandemic, little things like that.
That’s no moon, it’s a space station.
So it went for 2020 preseason darlings LAFC. They started the season with many folks considering them an unbeatable juggernaut, and they ended the season by getting beaten in the first round of the playoffs with relative ease by Seattle. What started as a scream had ended as a whisper.
But they also weren’t as bad as they seemed. Their 12th place finish in the Supporter’s Shield race grossly overstated things. Given nearly everything that could have gone wrong for LAFC in 2020 did go wrong, the fact that every legit advanced metric showed they were at worst a top six team tells most of what you need to know. This wasn’t the end of an era, with the 2019 season proven to be a flash in the pan. This was a team that had a very disappointing 2020 campaign, but didn’t need to reload or rebuild ahead of the 2021 season.
| Pts | Pts Rank | xPts | xPts Rank | xGF | xGA | xGD | xGD Rank | g+F | g+A | g+Diff | g+Diff Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hey! Wha’ Happened?
The weird thing about LAFC’s gap year isn’t that they were kind of blah, it’s the way they were blah. You’d think the mighty wind that toppled them from their perch atop the league would have been losing striker Adama Diomande and MLS Messi himself Carlos Vela. Nope, it’s the defense that was bad.
They allowed 1.39 xGA per game, which was 14th in MLS, just behind an improved but still not good Cincinnati squad. Much of that was due to a rotating cast of fullbacks - they had five different players play at least 200 minutes (and four over 600 minutes) at fullback in the shortened season, and they’ve tried to address the issue by adding some depth and experience at both outside back positions in the offseason.
Things got better last year after the wildly overpaid and underperforming goalkeeper Kenneth Vermeer got benched and a healthy Eduard Atuesta returned to the base of the midfield. But the most important offseason move may have been the permanent signing of center back Jesús David Murillo, who looks like he might be the defensive anchor they’ve been missing ever since they traded away Walker Zimmerman. At the very least, a relatively consistent four in the back line should provide some stability that was lacking last year.
The good news is that the offense never really suffered. They led the league in expected goals for, even without Vela for most of the campaign. Diego Rossi put in a near-MVP type season, and scoring was never an issue. The only potential concern in the attack is the departure of Bradley Wright-Phillips, who was great (1.1 g+ above average p96). Danny Musovski will likely start the season up top, but if LAFC make a big summer signing it’s safe to assume it will be for a striker. Still, by simply having Vela back, the offense will likely be even better than it was last year.
2021 Prognosis
As falls from grace go, LAFC’s 2020 wasn’t as bad as, say, Atlanta United’s. For a team that was pretty comfortably the best in league history the year before, finishing seventh in the West might not have been what they had pinned to the locker room vision board, but by most fancy stats they were still one of the top five or six teams in the league.
They’ve added a few pieces over the winter and the depressed COVID transfer market kept them from selling key players like Atuesta and Diego Rossi. Things are looking up, and on paper this team looks more likely to replicate their 2019 season than their 2020 one. Bookies, experts, and FiveThirtyEight all have LAFC as a top two team heading into 2021 — and when have they ever led you astray?
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Inter Miami: Pizarro World
By Harrison Crow
Miami is a hot mess. As of writing this, the day of the first MLS game, there is still no official word on Matias Pellegrini, who occupies one of the four designated player spots currently on the Miami roster. The problem is that the league only allows three DPs, so they have a few hours to somehow get rid of him. The only other option at their disposal would be to buy out either Gonzalo Higuain (not happening) or Blaise Matuidi.
While most people are watching their roster juggling the situation with close eyes it’s pretty obvious that Pellegrini, the young winger who came via a big transfer almost two years ago, will logically be the one to suffer the biggest consequence of his team’s bad management. The true speculation comes in how much this will cost the team. If the they don’t offload him today, rumors are building that that the league could end up doing any one of 1) fining the team, 2) taking away allocation money, 3) removing an international roster spot, or some combination of all three. This is MLS, so they might also not do anything and hope we all just forget about it.
Still, this is yet another off-the-field issue in a laundry list of ones which seem to have plagued this organization since its inception. Despite the circus they still made the playoffs in their first season, posted consistent underlying numbers and have a collection of very talented individuals at their disposal.
One of the biggest narratives going into last season was the sink or swim situation of Miami’s investment in Rodolfo Pizarro. The Mexican star hadn’t ever seemed to live up to the hype at Monterrey after his time with Chivas and Matías Almeyda saw him on the cusp of stardom.
Over the 2020 season there seemed to be a general disappointment in him acting as a “ten” and working out of the middle of the park. Teams were successful in forcing him to produce out wide rather than letting him get consistent access to zone 14, “unlocking” defense and creating opportunities in tight spaces.
Down the stretch, October through November, was especially rough for Pizarro. Through his last 650 minutes he bagged all of one goal and no assists as Miami picked up only six points out of eight games and an early dismissal from the playoffs from expansion rival Nashville.
But we’ve never been really big on goals and assists around these parts. Yes, goals win games, but they aren’t a good measure of how good a player performs through a season. Our xG and G+ models are both actually pretty favorable to him. Over the last two seasons (combined w/ minimum of 1500 minutes played), Pizarro, despite his superficial numbers, show him to be a rather effective attacker.
Some of the deeper numbers such as carries, dribbles past, passes into the final third and g+ receiving indicate that despite being pushed into unexpected locations, he was still doing a lot relative to his peers with the ball at his feet. He was Miami’s prime orchestrator in progressing the ball towards the enemy’s goal and despite the varied success last year, these are good signs that he’s better than the traditional counting stats would indicate.
While Pizarro had a battle of his own trying to prove himself, Lewis Morgan, the young Scottish winger, had much lower expectations and trounced them. Weaponized as the second option to Pizarro floating out wide right, Morgan was super effective both from the underlying numbers and the traditional ones too. Morgan led Miami in both goals scored and assists, showing a delicate touch in the final third combined with a sharp skill at cutting inside to feed others or create shots for himself. He also showed a keen skill from dead-ball situations combining with Leandro González Pírez.
The biggest problem on the attack for Miami has been the number nine position. While signing Gonzalo Higuain was supposed to fix that his performance was decidedly suboptimal. As both the eye test and the data (g+ had him for -0.04 p96) suggested he just was not able to muster the same magic he had shown in the past for the big European teams or Argentina. His contributions to the attack must get better for the herons to remain in playoff consideration this season. But first, about that 4th DP spot...
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Real Salt Lake: Wood This Make You Kreilach
By Kevin Nelson
Real Salt Lake got off to a promising start in 2020, sitting tied for 4th in the Western Conference after nine points from their first six games. Everything changed when the team protested an August 26th game with LAFC in response to the police shooting of Jacob Blake. Owner Dell Loy Hansen’s repeated racist behavior and a sexist atmosphere that pervaded the front office derailed RSL’s season from within.
A Hansen sized cloud secured itself squarely over Sandy, Utah as he sold the team and the ensuing ownership uncertainty adjusted RSL’s trajectory. How much this situation can be attributed to the performance on the field is pure speculation but coincidentally or not, performance subsequently cratered. A +0.33 expected goal differential per game in the pre-controversy days was replaced by a -0.09 after it, in large part due to a defense that coach Freddy Juarez needed to be good going from 4th-best to simply league average. RSL managed only three wins from their final 16 games, entering the offseason blanketed in turmoil.
Roster building on a budget
The league has taken over the ownership transition, but a deal doesn’t seem apparent in the short term. MLS executive John Kimball now embarks on his eighth month as interim president with incumbent general manager Elliot Fall remaining as a primary decision maker. Those two have undoubtedly had to grapple with the question: how do you repair an organization that had been poisoned by racist and sexist leadership while also improving and building a roster without an owner?
MLS’ single entity structure offers some flexibility to work within, but the lack of depth on the roster may provide more needs than those resources can account for. According to g+ above average, center back Nedum Onuoha was the best player on the team last season, but he was also the worst “best” player of any team. RSL also only had five players who contributed positive g+, tied with Atlanta for worst in the league, so maintaining status quo is definitely not an option.
The majority of their limited resources needed to be allocated to improving an attack that was equally bad in creating and finishing chances both pre and post Hansen-gate. Fall admitted they were “going to have to find ways to get more potent going forward that maybe aren’t the most conventional”, which appears to translate to scouring the market for bargains and praying on high risk investments.
That strategy has manifested in free transfers of strikers Bobby Wood and Rubio Rubin and a loan move for winger Anderson Julio from San Luis. The number of question marks that come along with that trio dwarfs the cost to acquire them (which, to reiterate, was $0), but the club is betting on them to boost an offense that produced a measly 0.80 expected goals from open play (5th worst in MLS). Wood, who is arriving earlier than initially expected, has struggled to get on the field over the past two seasons, managing only 471 minutes and scoring just once in that time. His last full season (18/19) had it’s warts too, ranking in the bottom six percent among Bundesliga forwards in non-penalty expected goals, shots, and shot creating actions per 90, albeit for a terrible Hamburg team.
Rubin lost the shine on his once bright prospect status years ago, but RSL are hoping he can rediscover some potential he showed with Utrecht after a seven goal season for San Diego. Last year was an exception though, as preceding his time in USL he had a single goal and assist across the previous eight seasons. Still, at just 25 years old, you can squint your eyes and see some post-hype sleeper potential here for the price of a found lottery ticket. Anderson Julio also joins after an unsuccessful first year in Liga MX but warranted a $2 million transfer fee in the recent past and is not far removed from a double double (10 G, 10 A) in his final season with LDU Quito.
If you view these moves with the most pessimistic lens, you still have to consider them an upgrade over what RSL had last season, when Douglas Martinez, DP Sam Johnson, and winger hybrid Corey Baird comprised RSL’s central attacking options. Martinez’s success in USL has yet to translate, Johnson was sent packing after hosting multiple super-spreader parties, and Baird has since been moved to LAFC for $500K in GAM in what was actually a shrewd move given his -3.99 g+ above average in the last three seasons including a team worst in 2020. That trio left so much to be desired up top that midfielder Damir Kreilach was forced to masquerade as a false nine, and any player acquisition at striker will allow him to return to his natural deeper role.
Ultimately, RSL will have to lean on their brand of building through youth more than ever, especially given the retirements of the aforementioned Onuoha and stalwart Kyle Beckerman, who departs after 14 seasons, 756 fouls, and nearly 30,000 minutes in Utah. Few would argue Beckerman hasn’t lost a step at 38 years old, but the vacuum created by removing his comforting presence will certainly affect the team. The transition to Pablo Ruiz in Beckerman’s role on the field already started last season and any of the positive outcomes for RSL in 2021 likely include him building on that performance.
2021 Prognosis
RSL’s success this season is dependent on a lot of ifs, but the biggest is still at the ownership level. It’s clear their third designated player slot will not be filled until a sale is final and it’s intuitive to suspect a wholesale spending crunch throughout the roster as well. RSL have succeeded with a limited budget in the past but that strategy has faltered with more regularity in recent years. Maybe they can rekindle that magic, they are only a single season removed from a third place finish in the West, but it just seems like too many things have to break right for that to be the case.