2020 Season Preview: Philadelphia Union

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Point-above-replacement values are explained here. Non-penalty expected goals + expected assists are explained here, and you can see all players’ xG+xA in our interactive expected goals tables. Touch percent is the percentage of total team touches by that player while he is on the field, which can be found in our interactive expected passing tables.

By Jared Young (@jaredeyoung)

Fans who like their soccer with a dash of philosophy will want to follow the Philadelphia Union this season. It was Aristotle who said, “the whole is greater than the sum of it’s parts,” and it will be the Union that put that wisdom to the test. The Union are coming off their best season by all measures including goal difference, expected goal difference, points and recording their first playoff win. Sporting Director Ernst Tanner responded by letting three productive players go because they didn’t fit the style of play. His replacements have less compelling CVs but arguably fit better into the target shape. If the Union are going to take another step forward it will be because Tanner has channeled his inner Aristotle. Otherwise, the Union might slide back into the decade long mediocrity they suffered previously.

The Parts Jettisoned

Early in the 2019 season head coach Jim Curtin deployed a 4-4-2 diamond which meant that slow footed central defensive midfielder Haris Medunjanin would man the lower point. Medunjanin is a deep lying playmaker who finished third among defensive central midfielders in incremental passes completed compared to their expected passes completed (90) while attempting the third most difficult passes among the same group. In other words, he attempted lots of difficult passes, yet still completed more of them than the normal player would. He was also 2nd in the league in xBuildup which looks at a team’s expected goals in possessions this player participated but did not make the final pass or shot. In short, he was constantly looking to start the offense from deep, and he was very good at it. The problem was the liability he created on defense. So Tanner said goodbye to the Bosnia and Herzegovina national.

The Union’s marquee signing last winter was Mexican national Marco Fabian. He was supposed to man the critical point at the top of the diamond, but he didn’t work out either. Fabian seemed more content to shoot rather than pass and ended up playing more like a third forward. He managed seven goals in fewer than 1,500 minutes, but just one assist. Goodbye to Marco.

A more difficult decision had to be the release of Fafa Picault. Picault is a fast winger that runs the full field, a trait that Curtin covets. However, a diamond is no place for wingers and the Union’s experiment to place him as the second forward was never going to pan out.

All told, this group managed 12 goals and 15 (MLS) assists, which aren’t insignificant numbers to replace.

The Parts Added

For reinforcements Tanner focused on the defense and the far reaches of the world. He went to Norway, Slovakia and Venezuela to find the parts. At center back there is the 24 year old Norwegian Jakob Glesnes, who will no doubt offer challenge to incumbent starters Mark McKenzie and Jack Elliott. McKenzie figures to be away for some time during the Olympics and Glesnes will ensure there is little drop-off.

Jose Martinez is 25 from Venezuela. He comes with a national call-up under his belt and a nickname that will endear him to the Union faithful, “El Brujo,” which translates to “The Wizard.” In the preseason he appears to be more of a central midfield option than a purely defensive one, but he also appears to be a solid depth addition.

If there is a “marquee” signing among this anonymous lot it is 21 year old Slovakian Matej Oravec who will replace Medunjanin. He won’t offer nearly the attacking prowess of his predecessor, but he appears to be sound positionally and defensively and should help the Union defense that was middle of the road last season, allowing 50 goals.

This new crew looks young and intriguing, but a fair amount of offense walked out the door without replacements and remains the big question mark for this season’s Union.

The Attacking Parts

The Union did re-sign some significant players worth noting. First, was the welcome surprise of re-signing Jamiro Monteiro who was the glue of the Union midfield last season. Tanner was hesitant to make any promises after the season ended, so the Union faithful are thrilled with the long term transfer from FC Metz.

Ilshino spits hot fire… but only on the right side of the field.

The Union also re-signed “supersub” Ilshino. For those of you who remember Vinnie Johnson, aka “The Microwave” from the Detroit Pistons Bad Boys days, Ilshino is the MLS equivalent. He is instant offense. He tallied five goals on just 23 shots and generated eight assists in under 1,200 minutes. His xG+xAp96 ranked 36th in the league last season for players with more than 1,000 minutes. He does most of his damage from the wing, which is always a challenge given the formation that Curtin has to manage, but a welcome one given his clear impact on the game.

Those signings acknowledged, the Union made no additions to their offense from last season. So what might the plan be? I would sum it up by suggesting that health and individual growth are the strategies underpinning the Union strategy on offense.

The key might be second year player Sergio Santos. Santos logged just 687 minutes last season due to injuries, roughly the equivalent of eight starts, but he did show flashes of why the Union thought he could be their top scorer when they signed him. He tallied four goals on just 21 shots. He also showed a desire to come deeper to get the ball and set up the offense.

Santos could work quite nicely next to Kacper Przybylko, Tanner’s first magical find from the German 3rd division, who showed throughout his 15 goals that he could be a dependable striker for a playoff quality team. Tack on last year’s late signing of Andrew Wooten and the Union have a solid group of forwards.

The attacking midfield is where the big questions remain. The hope is that 19 year old USMNT call-up Brendan Aaronson will take a big step as the link between a very solid midfield and forwards. In his 1800 minutes last year Aaronson showed far more promise than production. He managed three goals on 34 shots and just two assists, and when compared to other playmakers he wasn’t nearly as productive in terms of goal creation.

xB/90: Total team xGoals earned per 90 minutes by the team on possessions in which the player participated but did not make the final pass or take the shot.
xGCHain/90: Total xGoals earned by the team on possessions in which the player participated (including the final pass and the shot).

When looking at advanced metrics that highlight a player’s involvement in possessions that result in a shot, Aaronson lagged behind both Monteiro and the maligned Fabian. For all his youthful promise, Aaronson has a long way to go before being counted on as the attacking fulcrum.

Which brings us back to Monteiro. He can perform as the attacking option for Curtin, but he’s far better playing deeper and partnering with Alejandro Bedoya in what could be the most formidable central midfield duo in the league. That Monteiro might need to play a more attacking role limits what the Union can get out of Bedoya, as he might have to maintain his more defensive duties to keep things balanced.

If Oravec can be a defensive stopper ala the Osvaldo Alonso mold, then one could imagine an attacking three of Bedoya, Monteiro and Aaronson when pushing forward. But that’s a best-case scenario. The final pass will likely have to come from some combination of Aaronson and Monteiro, which will put the Union in more of a 4-2-2-2 in attack. The Union will need to be very disciplined in transitioning back to their defensive shape if that happens.

If there is a problem with Tanner’s Aristotelian strategy it will be found in the development of Aaronson. If he can handle the role, then all of the other midfield pieces fall into place. If he can’t, then the Union will have to shuffle things around to connect that midfield with the forwards.

The Whole of the 2020 Parts

The Union return all five defensive starters along with their new first line of defense Oravec. McKenzie and Elliott are a strong center back pair. With Tanner’s second German 3rd division steal Kai Wagner at left back, Ray Gaddis set to man right back again, and Andre Blake between the pipes, the Union’s defense should almost assuredly improve from it’s meh performance last year.

But the offense will drive whether or not the Union ultimately take a step forward. Can Przybylko continue his strong form? Will Santos stay healthy and form the strong partnership imagined with Przybylko? Can Wooten emerge as another option after a disappointing transition year? Will Aaronson take a meaningful step in the attack?  These questions ultimately come back to Curtin and how he will approach these unknowns. In the past he has not been inclined to protect the defense, but believing in the strength of the midfield has encouraged the team to push for goals. If those goals don’t appear for the reasons previously mentioned, the team will likely suffer on both ends.

The Union have a very balanced squad, but will the whole be greater than the sum of the parts? To answer let’s turn to another philosopher, Thomas Reid. He first coined the phrase, “A chain is only as strong as its weakest link.” Taking that wisdom into account it appears the section of the field between central midfield and the forwards will be link that makes or breaks the Union’s season.