2020 Season Preview: Minnesota United

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Point-above-replacement values are explained here. Non-penalty expected goals + expected assists are explained here, and you can see all players’ xG+xA in our interactive expected goals tables. Touch percent is the percentage of total team touches by that player while he is on the field, which can be found in our interactive expected passing tables.

By Joshua & Daniel Sleper

After two poor seasons in 2017 and 2018, led by a historically dreadful defense, Minnesota United saw a dramatic turnaround in 2019. The Loons improved from -23 GD and -26.4xGD in 2017 and -22 GD and -12.4 xGD in 2018 to +9 GD and +4.2 xGD in 2019. The dramatic difference in GD was largely driven by the defense, which gave up almost an entire goal per game fewer. This resulted in a 4th place finish in the West (7th place overall) and 8th in xGD/g.

This dramatic turnaround can be largely explained by three aspects: 1) the aggressive pursuit of ball-winning, veteran defenders and midfielders 2) the Loons’ shockingly productive 2019 MLS Super Draft class and 3) the departure of previous team captain Francisco Calvo. Going into the 2019 season, the MNUFC front office had been largely stingy and mostly unable to identify MLS-level talent. Despite no changes in management personnel, somehow the front office hit on virtually all of their signings in 2019. Just look at the list of names added:

  • Jan Gregus is among the top five box-to-box midfielders in the league

  • Romain Metanire is one of the best right fullbacks in MLS

  • Vito Mannone won Goalkeeper of the Year (albeit not deservingly)

  • Ike Opara won Defender of the Year

  • Ozzie Alonso is simply a LEGEND

  • Hassani Dotson finished 3rd in Rookie of the Year (ROY) voting and might be playing in the Olympics this summer

  • Chase Gasper finished top five in ROY voting and received his 1st USMNT cap this offseason

In addition, Kevin Molino and Ethan Finlay returned from ACL injuries. Throw in the timely improvements of 2018 MLS Super Draft pick Mason Toye and the Loons almost had a complete MLS team. It is not easy to overstate how monumental these offseason signings and draft picks were. The Loons added six starters to the back seven, and that is not counting utility player, Hassani “only scores bangers” Dotson. The only starter to return from the 2018 campaign was Michael Boxall, who flourished with a new set of teammates. For the non-MNUFC fans out there, we would be remiss not to explain how crucial it was for the club to move on from 2017 opening day starter Francisco Calvo. Even after all of these stellar off-season additions, the Loons defense at the beginning of 2019 was poor (giving up 13 goals in seven games). The common denominator was Calvo and his inability to mark a single soul. Parcel that with his poor attitude, shoddy captainship, and overpriced ego, the Loons shipped him out in early May (thanks Chicago!). After his departure, the captain’s armband was quickly given to Alonso and the defense became the second stingiest in the MLS from that point on, allowing only 30 goals on 31.4 xGA in 27 games.

Previously we mentioned that the Loons were ‘almost’ a complete MLS team. Despite a solid attack in 2017 and 2018, the MNUFC offense, while not being bad, was largely inconsistent and padded its statistics with a 7-1 drubbing of the USL side FC Cincinnati. The underlying issue with the attack was multifaceted, including the sale of Superman Christian Ramirez, the drop in form of Batman Miguel Ibarra (3.56 PAR in 2018 to -1.86 PAR in 2019), and disappointing summer transaction Robin Lod (zero G+A on 1.8xG+xA in 583 MLS minutes). But the largest issue, to put in bluntly, was that MNUFC DPs Darwin Quintero and Angelo Rodriguez did not produce and were outright bad for large stretches of games.

Offseason (So Far…)

Going into the 2020 offseason, MNUFC had three critical areas to shore up:  goalkeeper (Mannone was on loan in 2019), finding true difference makers in the attack, and the overall depth of an old roster. From the onset, the MNUFC front office has preached the need to get younger and more dynamic in the attack. So far, it has stuck to its word by adding mostly players age 26 or younger (the one exception being 27 year old James Musa). Additionally, MNUFC signed young DP Thomas Chacon (19 years old) during the summer transfer window of 2019 and is in pursuit of Boca Juniors attacking midfielder Emanuel Reynoso (24 years old).

Tactical Outlook and Managerial Outlook

The dichotomy of Adrian Heath is difficult to explain to non-MNUFC fans. On the positive, his teams have ALWAYS played hard regardless of talent level and have always pushed for better results. On the negative, his subbing patterns are often late or nonexistent, he is guilty of playing favorites, and he seems to alienate certain players. The good news is that in 2019 he finally benched or traded negative performing players such as Calvo, Quintero, and Rodriguez. He also finally realized that three subs are allowed and showed some tactical nuance (watch the LAFC vs MNUFC games). Overall, he is probably a net positive as a manager, but 2020 will be a test to see how he manages a roster with legitimate MLS depth.

Tactically, Heath will play a standard 4-5-1 about 90% of the time. On the offensive end, he prefers fullbacks to push very high, overloading the flanks, and has the #6 stay relatively deep to create a pseudo-back three. This results in an offensive that is heavy on the crossing and requires very athletic fullbacks. He generally gives free range to his #10 and expects the #9 to be glued to the center backs. In addition, Heath allows his wingers to cut inside and to switch sides on occasion. In the other 10%, the Loons will lineup in a 4-3-3 or, more likely in 2020, as a 3-5-2. In 2019, the 4-3-3 used was honestly a disaster (see US Open Cup final), but MNUFC had good success in the 3-5-2 (see both LAFC matches).

The Loons’ roster is difficult to project because they have two players who are the probably the first backup for at least three positions on day one (Chacon and Dotson). There is also a chance that the Loons’ best player is currently not on the roster, as they still have a DP slot available. Heath definitely has the pieces to tinker with the formation because this team has a ton of versatile players. We would personally love to see the 3-5-2 at some point this year.

From a style-of-play standpoint, the Loons are fast, rangy, and capable of winning 50:50 battles. From a purely visual standpoint, MNUFC rarely loses one-on-one battles, particularly Opara, Boxall, and Metanire. They do not thrive with the ball (2019 possession was 44%) and are successful when playing direct. They are hard to pinpoint as they are not a full throttle pressing team, or a complete bunker-and-counter team, but they are 100% not a tiki taka team. Overall, they succeed when they can defensively suffocate teams and then launch a quick counter. In addition, their set pieces improved in 2019. 2018 saw the Loons finish last in the league with five goals on set pieces; 2019 saw this number increase to eight with the addition of free kick taker Jan Gregus and the aerial threat of Ike Opara (three goals).

Goalkeepers

The Loons probably dodged a financial bullet when Mannone turned down an offer to make him the most expensive MLS goalkeeper. Instead, they sent a minor amount of MLS Monopoly Money for Tyler Miller, who happens to be domestic, younger, half-priced, and possibly better, than the 2019 Goalkeeper of the Year. At least by GA-xGA (+1.49 vs. -3.21), Miller was the more reliable shot stopper. In addition, they selected Gregory Ranjitsingh in the Waiver Draft as the primary backup, signed first Homegrown Player Fred Emmings, and loaned out top 2018 MLS Super Draft pick Dayne St. Clair to the USL. Overall, this group is deep, young, and loaded with potential.

Defenders

The Boxall-Opara pairing figures to continue its dominance again this year. Ike is arguably the best in the league at putting out fires, giving Boxall the ability to play more aggressively, pressuring forwards checking back for the ball. Kallman and Aja figure to be solid depth options if Boxall takes a knock. Opara remains the most irreplaceable piece on this team, but has put together a few years in a row of sustained health, playing in 30 or more league games the last three seasons.

On the outside, Metanire will work tirelessly on the right. After flirting with a red card in his first 15 MLS minutes of fame by being late for every tackle, Chase went on to have a great year, earning 14 starts after the Calvo trade. If he continues to improve as a defender, he projects as an above average starter in this league for years to come. Utility man Hasani Dotson is probably the first depth piece for either position to start the year. Rookie Noah Billingsley will have a real opportunity to work his way into the depth chart on either side.

Hypothetical Wingbacks

In two under-the-radar trades this offseason, MNUFC added MLS veterans Marlon Hairston and Raheem Edwards (thanks Chicago!), who somehow are still only 25 and 24 years old. Depending on how Heath lines up the Loons, both project to potentially fill as wingbacks in a 3-5-2 or overlapping fullbacks in a more typical 4-5-1. It is hard to project how Hariston and Edwards fit, since both have had recent knee injuries and have played multiple positions in their careers. Either way, both Hariston and Edwards are talented, and athletic, and should be depth upgrades for the Loons. 

Midfield

A real strength of MNUFC is in the midfield. Forever young Ozzie Alonso is still rock solid, Jan Gregus might be the best player in the league you have never paid attention to, and Hassani Dotson is a tactical chameleon, allowing Adrian Heath to use alternative formations and looks. The Loons added USL Championship stalwart James Musa and FC Dallas product Jacori Hayes as depth here. Overall, expect Heath to more aggressively rotate Dotson in for Alonso this year and to use Musa as a number six/centerback hybrid.

Attacking Midfield

Even to ardent MNUFC fans, this is the one area of the team that is hardest to project. So much of the success of this position group probably comes down to the question: do the Loons land Emanuel Reynoso? If they can sign Reynoso, this group makes sense on paper and is surprisingly deep. Reynoso projects as a game changing 10 who can open up space for other attacking players to operate in. The primary questions are: Is Robin Lod any good (he has supposedly showed well in preseason)? Can the Loons count on 19 year old, 125 lb Thomas Chacon? How many minutes can Kevin Molino and Ethan Finlay play (both are 29 and have recovered from ACL tears)? In an ideal world, the Loons land Reynoso and he plays 2500 minutes. This allows Molino to move into the super-sub role that he excels at and allows Chacon to push Lod and Finlay for minutes on the wing.

Striker

While on paper, this group has plenty of question marks, we are somewhat bullish with it based on the very large sample size of 180 minutes of preseason play in Portland. TAM signing Luis Amarilla looks the part of a cagey striker who simply knows how to score. Mason Toye appears primed to build on his 2019 breakout campaign. In addition, the Loons signed Aaron Schoenfeld in the hope he can imitate the MLS GOAT Alan Gordon. On paper, the strikers are complementary (a poacher, a game stretcher, and a set piece specialist) and should allow Adrian Heath to potentially play two forward lineups. We expect Amarilla to be the primary starter, but for Toye to be heavily rotated in and to be used as a game wrecking 70th minute sub most nights.

Looking Forward

The 2020 season outlook is fairly simple for MNUFC. They return all four starters on the backline, all three central midfielders, and simply swapped Vito Mannone for Tyler Miller. The biggest question is simply: can the Loons consistently score? While the Loons’ defense was trickier to crack than a hardened Metapod as the season progressed, the offense only mustered 12 goals in their last 12 games. It should be noted that ⅓ of these games were against LAFC and Atlanta, and another ⅓ were against playoff teams. However, for the Loons to go to the next level they will need to consistently score against these types of teams. Much of this hinges on 1) the signing of Reynoso and 2) the level of play they get from Amarilla and Toye (assuming relative health for Ozzie and Ike). If Reynoso is signed and they get competent play from the strikers, expect a +12-15 GD and a 3rd place finish in the West. If they cannot close the deal for Reynoso, expect a +5 GD and a 5th place finish in the West. A word to Adrian Heath:  remember us at the end of the season as the one site who believed in the Loons.