2020 Season Preview: Columbus Crew SC
/Point-above-replacement values are explained here. Non-penalty expected goals + expected assists are explained here, and you can see all players’ xG+xA in our interactive expected goals tables. Touch percent is the percentage of total team touches by that player while he is on the field, which can be found in our interactive expected passing tables.
Unlike last season where Columbus returned 96% of team minutes played, this offseason has featured more turnover for the Crew than has been seen in years, but has also resulted in impressive depth throughout the squad. After a disappointing and injury-filled 2019 season, Caleb Porter will be looking to bring his team to the playoffs for the first time under his watch.
2019 in Review
It was bad. Injuries devastated the team leading to one of the worst runs in MLS history where the Crew only picked up 4 points from 15 games. A flurry of summer signings and trades, including a new keeper in Eloy Room and a new DP winger in Luis Diaz, resulted in improved results but underlying numbers peaked at an average team. There were some bright spots. Pedro Santos had a career year, Aboubacar Keita returned from the U-20 World Cup in good form, and the Crew throttled FC Cincinnati at Nippert showing the fußballers that Hell is, indeed, Real. But really, 2019 is a season best forgotten.
Offseason REview
Key Departures
Federico Higuain: After a torn ACL ended his 2019 season early, Pipa was not re-signed for 2020. Pipa orchestrated the Crew’s attack since he joined the team midseason in 2012 leaving as the all-time leader in assists and third in goals for the club.
Wil Trapp: “Willy Franchise” (note: nobody outside majorleaguesoccersoccer.com has ever called him this) leaves his hometown club for Miami after 7 seasons. While Trapp found success under Gregg Berhalter, the role that Caleb Porter has for his central midfielders doesn’t quite fit Trapp’s strengths.
Key Arrivals
Fanendo Adi: The striker, who struggled on and off the field since his trade from Portland, was picked up off waivers from FC Cincinnati. Columbus will only pick up $205k of his almost $2m salary, with Cincinnati picking up the balance after using their one off-season buyout on him. Adi previously had success under Caleb Porter and, if he can return to form, the Crew will finally have the reliable back-up striker they’ve been searching for.
Chris Cadden: was signed last summer from Motherwell but was loaned to English League One side Oxford United until this January. The 22 year-old impressed on loan in his 21 matches at right back and the Crew were reportedly offered £1m by Oxford but turned it down.
Darlington Nagbe: The Crew paid over $1m in allocation money to reunite Nagbe with Caleb Porter. Nagbe is the box-to-box midfielder that Porter needs for his system to work that Wil Trapp was not.
Milton Valenzuela: While not a new signing, Valenzuela’s return from an injury suffered in pre-season training last year provides a massive boost for the team. He was arguably the best left back in MLS in 2018 and is one of the brightest young prospects in the league.
Vito Wormgoor: The Dutchman was signed on a free transfer from Norway’s SK Brann. Wormgoor looks to solidify the left center back spot next to Jonathan Mensah. The veteran defender converted seven of his eight penalties during his time at SK Brann and brings a much-needed man-bun to the Crew.
Lucas Zelarayan: The club-record signing (reportedly $7-8m) was purchased from Liga MX’s Tigres to replace fellow Argentinian Federico Higuain. While he was not the primary playmaker for Tigres, he will be for the Crew. I actually have no idea how he plays, but the MLS Assist podcast covered a bit about him (starts at 19:40).
Positional Expectations
Defenders
The Crew enters the season with depth across the back line. Jonathan Mensah has quietly been one of the better center backs in the league over the last couple of seasons. He will likely be paired with Vito Wormgoor. Both are physical players comfortable on the ball. They will be backed up by veterans Josh Williams and Axel Sjoberg and second-year player Aboubacar Keita. Still only 19, homegrown Keita was forced into the starting lineup last year due to injuries, but acquitted himself well and showed great passing range at times. Look for him to earn more minutes as the season progresses. The Crew also boasts one of the top outside back corps in the league. Milton Valenzuela, if fully recovered, is the automatic starter at left back. He is backed up by utility man Hector Jimenez and Waylon Francis. Harrison Afful, 33, is the likely starter and remains one of the most technically gifted players on the squad. The Crew finally have quality depth at right back, with Chris Cadden joining as the presumed heir apparent to Afful. At Goalkeeper, Curaçao international Eloy Room is the undisputed #1. He is backed up by Columbus’ prodigal son Matt Lampson and Jon Kempin, both of whom possess safe hands for when Room misses time on international duty.
Midfielders
While the Crew has top-end starters in midfield, depth is lacking. Darlington Nagbe and Artur start in central midfield forming a double pivot. They are backed up by two first-year homegrowns, Aiden Morris and Sebastian Berhalter (yes, that Berhalter). Both are promising prospects, but each only played one year of college soccer and may not be fully MLS ready this season. Lucas Zelarayan is the starter at central attacking midfielder. Look for him to be more direct in his play than Federico Higuain was. The Crew have no natural backup at attacking midfielder, so if Zelarayan misses time, look for Pedro Santos to slide in from the wing as he did for most of last season.
Forwards
Gyasi Zardes leads the line and is the top American goal scorer in MLS since he joined Columbus in 2018. Zardes will not create much on his own, but when fed the ball he will finish his chances. Despite being derided as a “bad finisher” by many, he has scored 26 non-penalty goals from 27.7 xG. Zardes is backed up by bargain signing Fanendo Adi and Jordan Hamilton, whose xG/96 ranks 6th in the league over the last two seasons. Expect Generation Adidas’ JJ Williams to go back on loan to a USL squad for the season. On the wing, Pedro Santos and Luis Diaz are the starters. While Santos has played as an inverted right winger with Columbus, look for him to switch out to the left to make room for Luis Diaz. Also don’t expect Santos to repeat his 11 goals last season, after greatly under-performing his xG in 2018, he greatly over-performed in 2019. With Porter’s preferred direct style, watch for quick long passes to spring Diaz down the right flank to be the Crew’s primary method of attack. The wingers are backed up by Youness Mokhtar, who showed glimpses of quality at the end of last season, and Derick Ettienne Jr.
2020 Prognosis
In the Crew’s final full season at MAPFRE Stadium, anything less than a playoff berth will be seen as a massive disappointment. With six of their first nine games at home, look for the Crew to get off to a quick start, and if they don’t that may spell trouble for the rest of the season. If record-signing Zelarayan plays as hoped, Nagbe proves to be an upgrade over Trapp, and the whole team doesn’t get injured like last season, the Crew could potentially contend in the East.