2020 Season Preview: FC Cincinnati
/Point-above-replacement values are explained here. Non-penalty expected goals + expected assists are explained here, and you can see all players’ xG+xA in our interactive expected goals tables. Touch percent is the percentage of total team touches by that player while he is on the field, which can be found in our interactive expected passing tables.
By Jeff Bull (@JeffBull5)
“Dumpster fire” has several meanings, most of them fairly parallel, but it’s rarely used to describe something dull enough to feel like it’s taking weeks, maybe even months off your life. “Life-sucking” sums up FC Cincinnati’s 2019 season tidily as anything. You never knew quite what would happen when the whistle blew, but you understood it would hurt and that you wouldn’t enjoy it. Even down the stretch when they dialed back the defensive incompetence, they rarely won. All in all, it was…unpleasant.
2020 can’t be that bad, surely. I don’t know that, obviously, but I literally cannot think of a way that Cincinnati could be worse on all sides of the ball than in 2019. But let’s see if we can’t find some ways.
2019 In Review
Funny story: had FC Cincinnati beat the Philadelphia Union on March 30, 2019, they would have set the record for points by an MLS expansion team after as many games. Nice as that felt, the optimism around it burned off by the end of June; clarity on how very badly it would end only really sunk in around early September. Yes, I have been the oblivious frog in that proverbial pot of slow-boiling water.
One game from 2019 stuck with me: Cincinnati’s 1-7 loss away to Minnesota United FC. It played out like a cup game gone horribly wrong, a USL versus MLS battle that underlined the natural order. That was Cincy’s 18th game of the season, the first game of the second half of the year. They’d bled goals before, (like giving up five at New York City FC earlier in the same month, or five again at Orlando City SC a couple weeks prior) but after that game giving up a gratuitous number of goals (e.g., five when hosting Toronto FC in September), sort of became the brand. The Minnesota loss, though, flashed a clear, unblinking signal that things would not improve. Even with Allan Cruz finding the knack for scoring a game’s first goal (five times from games 18-34, sometimes very early) the defense could only make one of them count, a very lonely win at the Montreal Impact. When Cruz didn’t score, Emanuel Ledesma picked up the slack, but the defense just collapsed before he scored instead of after. The result was always the same.
Some off-field distractions came, like Fanendo Adi’s legal issues. Moreover, the coaching carousel only stopped spinning when c̶u̶r̶r̶e̶n̶t̶ former head coach Ron Jans came in (Alan Koch, then Yohan Damet came before). Jans’ arrival, though, felt like a turning point. He didn’t waltz in and Midas-Touch everything in sight – 0-4-1 in his first five games says otherwise – but Cincinnati ended the year on a 1-1-3 record and looking like they’d pieced together the concept and purpose of defending. They allowed just three goals in those last five games, and while they only scored two goals, the point is Cincinnati had at least achieved “hard to beat.” This was the same team, with just one new defender added (Mikael van der Werff) that had allowed 37 goals in the 12 games before those last five. Cincy flipped its goals-against from an average of 3.1 to an impressive 0.6. You could see it too, if you could bring yourself to watch a game.
Offseason Changes
| Min | Pos | Shots | G | xG | G-xG | KeyP | A | xA | A-xA | xG+xA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1904 | Wing | 49 | 6 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 39 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | 9.69 | |
| 1850 | Wing | 38 | 7 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 17 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 | 6.57 | |
| 1359 | F | 27 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 18 | 3 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 6.16 | |
| 1618 | Wing | 29 | 4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 22 | 3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 4.81 | |
| 1888 | Wing | 28 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 25 | 3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 4.10 |
Amazingly, in the offseason Cincinnati got out from under Adi’s designated player contract, but the house-cleaning neither ended there nor made perfect sense: who would have batted an eye had they kept any one of Victor Ulloa, Leonardo Bertone, or Ledesma (their most productive attacking player)? They dropped a bunch of players who mostly saw the field from the sideline in 2019 too – Nazmi Albadawi, Corben Bone, and Forrest Lasso – but, no matter how much I want them to succeed, a future in the USL calls each of them.
Cincinnati’s FO held most of the core together, though, and that moves the conversation to the rebuild. Poaching Haris Medunjanin from the Philadelphia Union was the first step; one of the league’s better passers from the depths (see his bar charts below against similar players – e.g., Michael Bradley, Ilie Sanchez (tough comparison), and Eduardo Atuesta (tough, going the other way), he has real potential to let Cincinnati flip the script from defense to attack on a dime. They also upgraded the players that Medunjanin will play to by signing Yuya Kubo, Adrien Regattin, and, the guy most expect to be the big fish, Jurgen Locadia. I mean, he looked good enough to Brighton and Hove Albion to make him their record signing two years ago, so… (or is it but?).
Honestly, it’s hard to translate most things about a new player. I tend to start with the most objective measure I can think of: whether he gets regular minutes on the regular. When a coach or an organization puts faith in a player over time, those are professionals with their jobs on the line seeing enough value in a player to rely on him; that’s a serious endorsement that only means more when they do it all the time. Now comes the fun: of all Cincy’s signings, Locadia garnered the gushiest press coming in, but he also presents as the player with the most to prove. He started strong for PSV Eindhoven - a goal every third game - and 2015-16 was especially encouraging (eight goals, 10 assists)…but isn’t the Eredivisie among Europe’s loosest leagues? Also, things haven’t looked up for Locadia since 2017-18 or the Dutch League. Brighton gave him plenty of chances (26 appearances in 2018-19) but the goals never really came. The loan to Germany’s Hoffenheim did come, though that was just sitting on the bench in a different country.
Because both Regattin and Kubo have similar late disruptions on their resumes, all three look like (ideally) low-risk salvage jobs. The same conversation rediscovering confidence comes up with Kubo as well, and so the pathos piles on. Kubo still strikes me as the most reliable: his wilderness years came with Germany’s FC Nurnberg, where he shared Locadia’s issue with getting far more games than goals, but, before that, he’d had reliable playing time since age 16, first with Kyoto Sanga, then with Switzerland’s Young Boys (and has anyone looked into that name?), and then Belgium’s KAA Gent. He even matched Locadia’s strike-rate while at Gent of a goal every 2.8 games.
This lineup was based on Jans’ plans to roll out a 4-3-3.
The good news: the only real attacking output FC Cincinnati needs to replace is Ledesma’s – in other words, just six goals and five assists (Adi didn’t add a whole lot). In other words, that’s two players, Locadia and Kubo, to replace the output of one. Because the rest of Cincy’s scorers are still around, even Kubo’s worst production (a goal every fourth game with Young Boys) would cover the goals side all on its own. If Locadia can match his PSV levels – e.g. eight or nine goals, maybe five or six assists – Cincy fans could find themselves watching a functioning attack (dare they dream?). And I haven’t even gotten to Regattin yet. From what I gather, he showed he can hold down steady work for years with Toulouse (in France!), but he also looks likelier to provide assists over goals. Then again, that’s what Locadia’s there for, yeah?
So, next question: how will all that work? Or, this time with clarity, will it work at all?
According to, literally, everything I’ve read, Ron Jans was planning to play a 4-3-3, and he wasn’t fired because of tactical disagreements, so expect a 4-3-3, I suppose.
Now, to delve into the mechanics…
Goalkeeper
They have, like, three guys and they’re all competent. I’ll worry about this when I have to.
Defense
Between the personnel available for defense and the midfield in front of it, I expect Cincinnati to play with a back three almost as often as not. Between van der Werff, Kendall Waston, and Mathieu Deplagne, they have the players to do it, with Nick Hagglund as insurance (new Swedish signing, Tom Pettersson, is still coming online, from what I gather). I land on the “playing with three” theory because I expect fullbacks like Greg Garza (when healthy), Andrew Gutman, and Saad Abdul-Salaam to have regular attacking roles. Bottom-line, I think they’ll collapse into a back four while defending – probably Deplagne on the right, van der Werff paired with Waston (or Petterson or Hagglund) in the middle, and Gutman or Garza on the left – but, barring a 2019-esque defensive mess, I anticipate a fair amount of cheating up that left side.
Midfield
Here’s where the math and situational analysis gets tricky. By common consent and general observation, Medunjanin only “defends” in the sense of getting vaguely in the way; that means Cincy needs a sensible defensive scheme in that space in order to side-step the whirling blades of doom that other teams will fire through midfield. If the new coach uses a three-man midfield – again, a 4-3-3 – the main question becomes who lines up with Mendunjanin and Cruz, and the next question is where. As for the other player, will Cincy fans get their happiest dreams of Frankie Amaya hitting his potential and helpful numbers, or will they set loose a ball-breaker like Fatai Alashe or Caleb Stanko to lurk around Medunjanin, so he can focus forward?
Of all the non-ball-breaking players above, only Medunjanin looks like a plausible cheat-code for rapid transition (e.g., catching the opposing defense pants around ankles). While both Cruz and Amaya can stretch a defense a little, neither has shown a capacity for passes that unlock a defense; they can play soccer, of course, work an overload, create a cross (or finish one off in Cruz’s case), but I don’t see much forward momentum coming out of that middle three unless it comes from Medunjanin.
For what it’s worth, I can see a defensively-sound 4-2-3-1 in the current roster. That doesn’t mean anything – i.e., if they play a 4-3-3 and it works, I’ll admit the new coach is a smarter man than me and let the good things come. If a defensive adjustment becomes necessary, though, that’s where I see it coming. That’s not bad; a viable Plan B is a good thing.
The Forwards Three (3)
I assume this will be Regattin, Locadia, and Kubo, left to right, at least until circumstances or competition changes it. Cincinnati has players waiting behind all three - Brandon Vazquez for Locadia, Kekuta Manneh for Regattin, and Joseph-Claude Gyau for Kubo. At the same time, look at Manneh’s numbers from 2019 – four goals and three assists, the best of the bunch – and you’ll appreciate how badly Cincy needs the new guys to work out.
To close this section with the freshest material, news broke last Friday that Jans got in trouble for saying…well, stupid shit in front of players he shouldn’t have. Real Stupid Shit. This morning he resigned from head coaching duties. The internet tells me (short-hand for caveat lector), that FC Cincinnati will soon announce the signing of Dutch midfielder Siem de Jong. I know one of those things happened (Jans), while the other (signing de Jong) still waits on final confirmation, but both, together with felony charges being filed against Darren Mattocks for shady business in Pennsylvania rolls into one big hairy furball that says that FC Cincy’s off-season isn’t over yet.
So, to put it all together: I don’t know enough about the new players to call them solutions, and I don’t have enough faith in last year’s players to see them as serious competition. It is what it is. To repeat the happy talk from above – and I think it’s accurate - it simply won’t take much to improve on FC Cincy’s 2019 offense.
2020 Expectations
Worst-case: If the new guys fail to deliver, or if the new coach stinks, I’d bet big bucks that’d spell a second season of horror for Cincinnati. I don’t think that’ll happen, but the team’s persistent and fatal defensive vulnerability was as much a part of the team as their jerseys. I never wrapped my head around what caused it and, no, I still don’t see how a three-man midfield works, but I’m ready to be proved wrong!
Best-case: I can see how that 4-3-3 will work, especially attacking. Cincinnati’s left, for example, could feature Garza, Cruz, and Regattin creating lethal over-loads, and what happens to any team once you roll up their fullback and send runs to posts near, far, and late up the middle? Provided Jans’ replacement can come up with a sound defensive scheme that doesn’t starve the attack (and, for what it’s worth, I think they could still do that out of a 4-2-3-1), I’d be hard-pressed to see how Cincinnati doesn’t improve over last season. If nothing else, they’ve got two and a half men replacing Ledesma’s output…so it can’t be worse…can it?
The final question is how much they improved against the rest of MLS’s Eastern Conference. I’d say a number of teams improved during the off-season –Columbus for sure, and probably the Revolution and DC United – while several teams – Atlanta United, NYCFC, and Toronto – almost certainly returned teams stronger than the one FC Cincinnati built. That’s already six teams between Cincinnati and first in the East, but…how much would you bet right now on them, say, sweeping Orlando in 2020?
Final Prediction: If the signings pan out and the defense knocks off 15 goals allowed, I can see the playoffs. Only just making them, but making them. Frankly and sadly, missing out seems likelier.