2020 Season Preview: DC United
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Point-above-replacement values are explained here. Non-penalty expected goals + expected assists are explained here, and you can see all players’ xG+xA in our interactive expected goals tables. Touch percent is the percentage of total team touches by that player while he is on the field, which can be found in our interactive expected passing tables.
2020 is shaping up to be a make or break season for Ben Olsen. Or, at least, it’s shaping up to look like it should be a make-or-break season. There’s nothing to actually suggest that there’s real pressure from the DC United front office, but considering how recent seasons have gone for DC United, and how strong their lineup looks going into the season, there probably should be.
I wrote back in December about how 2019 was supposed to be The Year for DC United. Despite making the playoffs for the 5th time in 6 seasons, last season didn’t live up to expectations. After a thrilling end to 2018, everyone assumed the 2019 version of Rooney, Acosta, and Co. would take the next step: contend near the top of the East and make a real push towards MLS Cup. That didn’t quite happen.
2019 In Review
The obvious thing to point to for DC United’s lack of progress in 2019 was their attack. Wayne Rooney and Lucho Acosta saw significant drops in production, and Lucas Rodriguez was unable to really settle and provide a replacement for Yamil Asad’s 2018 contributions. That all culminated in DC having the 5th worst attack in MLS last season per expected goals, and 4th worst in actual goals scored.
It’s easy to put the blame for last season’s struggles on players underperforming, and certainly, a lot of that is deserved. That said, some of this has to be put at the feet of Ben Olsen, right? It’s a coach’s job to get the tactics right, to motivate their players, to put their team in a position to succeed. Whatever else was going on, Ben Olsen didn’t do any of those things particularly well for a team that was supposed to be a contender for MLS Cup. In fact, of DC’s five playoff appearances in the last six seasons, all but one were as either the 4th or 5th seed in the East. You can certainly do worse, but can Ben Olsen do better consistently? I don’t think we know that.
The thing that made DC competitive and kept them in the playoffs in 2019 is also one of my big concerns for them heading into 2020, and once again, it points back to Ben Olsen. DC United conceded the second-fewest goals in MLS last season, despite being 19th in expected goals against. Conceding 37 goals, compared with 51.5 expected goals against meant DC outperformed its expected goals by more than any other team in the ASA dataset (back to 2011). That means they were either so good they broke the model, or there was a lot of luck involved in that and they’re unlikely to sustain that going forward.
DC’s tactical setup, a lot of bunkering and keeping bodies between shots and the goal, plus Bill Hamid being very very good, certainly played a role in them outperforming their xGA by so much, but there’s no way that level is sustainable. It’s hard to make an argument that the players on their backline aren’t good enough to be an above-average defense in MLS, which means it’s largely on tactics and coaching to tighten things up in 2020. Again, the pressure’s on, Ben.
With all that said, let’s look at DC United heading into 2020.
ROSTER CHANGES
Players Out:
M - Luciano Acosta (Free transfer to Atlas)
F - Wayne Rooney (Free transfer to Derby)
M - Chris Durkin (Loan to Sint-Truiden)
M - Lucas Rodriguez (Loan expired)
D - Leonardo Jara (Loan expired)
F - Quincy Amarikwa (Out of contract)
D Marquinhos Pedroso (Option declined)
Players In:
M - Yamil Asad (Free transfer)
M - Edison Flores (Transfer from Morelia)
M/D - Julian Gressel (Trade from Atlanta)
M - Moses Nyeman (Homegrown signing)
M - Kevin Paredes (Homegrown signing)
That’s 4 key players from 2019 gone in Rooney, Acosta, Jara, and Rodriguez. That said, Ola Kamara was added during 2019 and should be a perfectly fine replacement at least for Rooney’s goal-scoring. Flores, Gressel, and Asad should be an overall upgrade on Acosta and Rodriguez (particularly 2019 version Acosta). If Gressel ends up at right-back, then that’s an upgrade there as well. If it’s someone else that’s a tougher question to answer.
Overall though, it’s not hard to argue that DC United actually looks like a stronger team heading into 2020 than they did last year.
2020 Roster Outlook
Goalkeepers
Bill Hamid is back. After spending 2019 on loan, DC paid a transfer fee to bring Hamid back on a permanent basis. Hamid was one of the best goalkeepers in MLS last season, ranking 3rd behind only Matt Turner and Steve Clark with 4.65 fewer goals conceded compared to expected goals against. Chris Seitz is a solid MLS backup. This is a position of strength.
Defense
The left-back spot is locked down with Joseph Mora there, though it’s a bit concerning that the “depth” behind him means playing another player out of position. If DC makes any more moves before the season starts, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a backup LB be one of them.
The right side is a different story. It’s not that there aren’t options, it’s just a matter of what Olsen decides to do. Russel Canouse played there down the stretch last year and has again so far in pre-season. Paul Arriola had some minutes there in 2019, but he’s more likely to start on the wing or potentially the #10 spot. Julian Gressel could also play there, which in some ways makes a lot of sense. Arriola does enough defensively on the right-wing to give Gressel the freedom to bomb forward from the back and not lose much in terms of attack.
I’ll admit, when I started writing this I was thinking Gressel at right-back was the way to go. Now though, I’m leaning towards Canouse, and we’ll get to why in the midfield preview. Olsen has been playing Canouse at RB so far in pre-season, including in their most recent friendly, when Gressel played in front of him on the wing, so that seems like the likely choice regardless.
Steve Birnbaum is one of the better center backs in MLS, Frederic Brillant was mostly pretty good in 2019, and in Donovan Pines, United have a very promising player who can push Brillant for minutes and give them the flexibility to play with 3 CBs if Olsen wants.
On the other hand, Brillant is now 35 and had some rough stretches last year. Pines is still only 21 and while he had good moments in 2019, he also showed his inexperience at times. Whether or not he’s ready to make the step to a consistent starter remains to be seen.
Whether Pines is ready or not, DC probably needs another player here. The level of player they go after should say a lot about how they’re feeling about Brillant and Pines. Steven Goff reported this week that they’re pursuing Bakaye Dibassy from Ligue 1 side Amiens, which sounds like they’re looking for someone to compete for a starting spot. The fact that Pines is now out 5-6 weeks with an injury makes bringing someone in before the season starts a more urgent matter.
Midfield
Assuming Olsen continues with Canouse at right-back, Felipe and Junior Moreno are locked in as a very solid defensive midfield pairing that is also good in possession. If Canouse isn’t at fullback he could start here as well. Canouse was very good in 2019 in the defensive midfield role until getting moved to right-back to fill a gap there. Not much else to say there.
The attacking three, assuming Olsen continues to play in a 4-2-3-1, is where things get interesting. United hasn’t yet had all of their attacking options together for a preseason game, so there aren’t any hints there yet, aside from Gressel playing right-wing in their most recent match.
If Gressel does play on the wing, then most likely it’s Asad coming off the bench and Arriola and Flores at the #10 and on the left. Both can play either position and regardless of how they start, they’ll likely interchange a lot throughout a game. Gressel too can play in the middle, so we could just see a ton of rotation on the field from those three.
While there’s a strong case to be made for playing Gressel at right-back, I think the even stronger case for playing him on the wing rests in one thing: the lack of offensive production from Yamil Asad and Paul Arriola. If Gressel is at right-back, the attacking 3 is almost certainly Asad-Flores-Arriola. Flores will certainly be expected to replace or improve on Lucho Acosta’s attacking contributions. Here’s how Arriola and Asad compare to MLS wingers.
By comparison, despite spending most of the year as a wing-back, Gressel’s expected goals numbers put him in the 52nd percentile compared with MLS wingers, and his expected assists in the 83rd percentile. You can see why DC paid what they did for him, and perhaps why they want to get him a bit closer to goal more often.
Obviously for DC to reach its potential this year, they’ll need Edison Flores to be productive. Flores joins as a DP from Morelia in Liga MX and is an exciting player who is going to bear the burden of making things happen in this attack. He could start on the left or in the middle, but I’d expect to see him in the middle in an effort to get him on the ball as much as possible.
Forwards
Forward is probably DC’s biggest position of need at this point in the preseason. No, they don’t need a starter. Ola Kamara joined in 2019 and the man knows how to score goals. The problem is that behind Kamara right now is an empty seat on the bench. Erik Sorga was signed and loaned to Loudoun United earlier this offseason. He’s likely to end up with the first team as Kamara’s backup, but whether he’s ready for MLS is a big question. Forward depth needs to be addressed. Soon.
Now, back to Kamara. Ola Kamara is a very good MLS goal-scoring center-forward. We know this. I have no concerns about Kamara’s ability to put the ball in the net when given chances.
| Player | Team | Season | G | xG | Solo% | KeyP | A | xA | xG+xA | Touch% | Passes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ola Kamara | CLB | 2016 | 0.58 | 0.7 | 15.3% | 0.58 | 0.1 | 0.09 | 0.79 | 4.6% | 16.9 |
| Ola Kamara | CLB | 2017 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 10.3% | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.11 | 0.6 | 5.0% | 17.7 |
| Ola Kamara | LAG | 2018 | 0.37 | 0.45 | 16.4% | 1.24 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.58 | 6.0% | 25.2 |
| Wayne Rooney | DCU | 2018 | 0.38 | 0.42 | 18.0% | 1.37 | 0.27 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 10.0% | 48.7 |
| Wayne Rooney | DCU | 2019 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 14.0% | 1.12 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.3 | 9.4% | 46.9 |
Here’s a quick comparison between Kamara and the man he’s replacing, Wayne Rooney. First, this is a stark reminder of how underwhelming Rooney was in 2019. Second, the thing that jumps out here is the difference in touch percentage and passing involvement. Rooney would drop into the midfield and contribute to the buildup. I’m actually surprised his expected assists aren’t higher, because of how central he was to the buildup for DC. Kamara is a very different type of forward. His highest touch percentage and passing came in 2018 playing mostly on the wing for the Galaxy. He’s much more of a guy to get on the end of chances in the box and finish them.
The difference in involvement between Rooney and Kamara is why it’s essential that DC get attacking contribution from their wingers this season, and why I think Gressel needs to be on the wing to provide that. Neither Asad nor Arriola have provided the level of attacking production needed if DC is going to contend this year. They’re both very good players, but someone has to create chances.
It will be interesting to see how DC’s attacking game plan is different in 2020 than it was in 2019 to fit Kamara’s style. I don’t expect a change in formation, but a modified approach wouldn’t be a surprise.
2020 Expectations
Given that the core of what was a solid roster in 2019 is back and they’ve added Flores, Gressel, and Asad, there should be high expectations for DC this season. Top 3 in the East seems like a fair target. If Olsen can’t get them higher than 4th in the East, it might be time to see if another coach can get this team to the next level.
The lack of depth at left-back, center-back, and forward is an issue, and injuries there could derail this season if a couple of pieces aren’t added. Aside from that, there’s no reason this team can’t contend in 2020.